LongBeachSurfFreak

My one criticism would be the inability to pinpoint the location of mesovorts. Hypothetically they are possible at any location that receives the core of the eye, regardless of which side.

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP

Verbatim that’s another gradient winter, displace that 100 miles north (which is nothing at this lead time) and it’s lights out for most on this sub forum.

Direction of movement is wrong and fetch size (for us) is relatively small. I wouldn’t call it a prolific swell producer unless that crawl materializes. That Bermuda zone is an excellent swell source for us though. Until it slows it’s going to be a run of the mill moderate swell something like 3.5’ at 11/12 seconds on the buoys

Another front another precip bypass. Not a drop of rain.

It will find a way to not rain in the city or on the island today. Getting dry

It almost has a 38 feel with the squeeze play between the two highs. (Obviously I’m not calling for a 38 redux)

Agreed, if we get a true center to form NE of what’s modeled this is getting shot out. It would be nice to save Abaco from any bad weather. It’s an extremely critical time for recovery efforts there.

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated.

Another day another precip miss for the city and the western island. Amazing how after bypassing us things go nuclear again for the east end and SNE.

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity

Gloria is my first weather memory. Watching LIPA remove the top of the big Norway maple in front of my house after it split and took down the power lines. I would have loved to have been a little older for that one. Probably the strongest winds during my life time with a brief period of 90mph gusts with what was most likely a sting jet caused be extra tropical transition.

This is definitely another Juan, which had some of the most prolific tree damage of any storm in the north east. Probably on par with 1938 in Ct and RI. Once you get over 90mph our trees just fall apart.

Hard to not go with that during the peak of the season. But there are definitely some factors adding to normal climo.

Getting some pretty solid gusts now at Jones beach estimating into the 30s. Waves are really starting to build now as well. Tonight’s 2am high tide should produce some washovers. I’m planning on coming down to get some shots