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Found 7 results

  1. Low to moderate confidence for a damaging wind event (scattered pockets). We're about 48 hours away and within a time that we should be looking for a possible significant event. Not a lock for damaging south wind gust 40-60 MPH in squalls, with an isolated SVR thunderstorm associated with a cold frontal passage, or... brief westerly wind gust to 45-50 MPH within 3 hours of the CFP - associated with strong dry air advection and modest pressure rises. The NAM/UK/EC have 65-75 kt winds near 850 MB at about 7PM Sunday over LI. RGEM even stronger. Op GFS is weakest. As we draw closer to Sunday afternoon, intensity of the wind fields and instability-and any squall lines will need reassessments. The upper 50s SST may limit transfer but lapse rates and any squall lines/kinks or breaks in the lines will be important discriminators for a sizable power outage event on LI/CT. Further west... if damage is to occur in NJ/se NYS, I'll look at hill towns first, and then along the immediate NJ coast, and especially IF, the currently modeled wind fields maintain intensity and can begin sooner as per the RGEM, which is the strongest of the models that I've seen from the 12z-18z/13 cycles. So, to avoid a damaging wind gust, NAM/RGEM/ECMWF/UKMET 65kt+ wind gusts need to weaken 10-15 kt, or a triple point low forms just s of LI. Have three 12z/13 RGEM graphics (slower than the NAM) 4P-7P-10P, added a prob for wind gusts 40+ MPH by the weaker 12z/13 GEFS. Added 18z/13 3K NAM turbulence Richardson # overturning graphic for LGA that is solid .25 up about 925 MB which may favor spotty mixing on the southerly flow and more widespread mixing on the slightly weaker westerly flow behind the front. Also added the 3K NAM modeled wind field from the 18z/13 3K NAM---also for LGA. EC has 3 successive cycles of 40+ MPH for LI/CT and past two cycles 50-60 MPH. Uncertainty on 60 MPH but confidence for ~40, scattered 50 MPH is at at least moderate. RGEM timing below is slower than the 3KNAM. By the way...models have the showers moving east at 62kt. 722P/13
  2. I'll be away for a large portion of this time frame so creating a possible avenue of posts, IF SVR materializes. Have seen a few models with a separate more northerly strong shear zone near I78 to southern LI early tonight. Added a couple of graphics. This matches the SPC D1 Slight Risk. While I think most of the SVR will be south of our forum, needed to cover for a possible potent developing event. You'll know by 7PM what's moving through and/or near KABE. Keep alert on your radar data. IF a supercell develops...real good chance of 1-3" in 30 to 60 minutes. Again, low prob for our area but could not ignore some of the modeled guidance.
  3. wdrag

    mPing

    Just a brief note to ensure all know mPing has returned this afternoon. We'll need to reload the app (delver then add). Its is valuable information-ground truth check on radar. It works. Apparently it returned last evening.
  4. Monday-Tuesday: Issued a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC-but delayed for most of our area-except Ocean County- til Monday). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday. PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk. SPC sees more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow which tends to be negative for convection holding together east of Appalachians, I've included Tuesday per SPC yesterdays D4 and todays D3. I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this hopefully will be improved as we draw closer. Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. 858A/23
  5. Since PHI issued a FF watch for much of its area yesterday, and then OKX followed suit this morning for parts of NY metro; have started this topic. Yes, potential exists for Flash Flooding and a few small areas of 4+ inch rains by Noon Friday, but model guidance is not overwhelmingly favorable for our NYC forum area. Northeast NJ, because of its infrastructure, and previous soil moisture condition is most vulnerable. But, best convergence for heavy convection appears to favor I78 southward for the entire period (south of more vulnerable ne NJ), with heavy convection possible further north to FWN-HPN-BDR up there only this afternoon. (for now, it seems se NYS and much of interior CT will miss the big stuff these next several days - keep watering the flowers from time to time). More than adequate CAPE and PWAT exist for heavy rainfall, KI are not pooled excessively in our area so far, but enough exists with a frontal boundary in a fairly light wind flow aloft. SVR: Since winds aloft are light, SVR if any, should be very limited, and probably only the I78 region southward-subject to modeling change. In summary: There should be organization for 1-3, short duration episodes of very heavy rain the next several days, especially in NJ. It seems most of this will be in the southern part of our NY forum area and even though the FF guidance is not as vulnerable in Monmouth, Ocean, Mercer counties--- that may be where the predominant threat for excessive rain is greatest-per WPC's morning excessive rain outlook for today-tonight. 610A/12
  6. LOW chance of exceeding 4" but this is worthy of awareness, I think. Have reviewed most of the typically used 12z/6 modeling, and WPC/SPC guidance. The scenario is a weak wsw flow aloft at 700 mb, over a very moist (near 15C dew point) 850MB vorticity rich wind shift across NJ (sse-sw) with 500mb vorticity maxima passing newd within an approaching 500mb trough that doesn't swing its broad axis through our NYC forum until about 12z Saturday. Dewpoints are already generally in the mid 60s with PWAT 1.6-1.8",-not overly wet, but with slow movers, plenty to allow for potentially excessive rainfall. How it all works is not clear and odds are that more than 4" of rain won't occur but have seen 12z/6 SPC HREF MAX precip guidance nears 10" in 1 spot of east central NJ and spotty 10+ s of LI. Best axis: unsure but for now along or s of I80 through LI or southward down to near I-195 (Ocean Mercer) counties. It should light up late tonight in central or northern NJ into LI and continues into forenoon Friday,. (Could be one or 2 isolated wet microburst SEVERE's?). For nw NJ, if there is very little tonight then I could see isolated svr thunderstorms in ne PA drift into nw NJ and se NYS late in the afternoon or evening and then continue to LI as showers Friday night. Low prob of occurrence. SPC has no risk and wind fields are generally a little too light. 627P/6
  7. After yesterdays long range failure of convection (arrived Sunday night), must look ahead. Modeling, SPC, WPC graphics all suggest opportunity for heavy convection Wednesday-Thursday (22-23). Attached the 6 hr County Average threshold FFG, with hourly guidance even lower amounts. This shows vulnerability in parts of ne NJ and se NYS, plus urban paved environments. SPC Days 1-3 is attached as issued early Tuesday. Also, added a brief 06z/21 GFS snapshot of modeled winds aloft for LGA via Bob Hart's web page (time is in UTC). Note the near 30 kt or greater westerly flow at 500 and 300 MB, showing the idea of enough wind to foster development of SVR organization and strong downdrafts. In these two days, "isolated" storm totals of 4" easily possible with 'general' two-day total amounts of 1/2-2". Warm Air Advection (WAA) instability burst (KI popping into the upper 30s from southwest to northeast by daybreak Wednesday driven by a modeled small 850MB 30 kt jet core in central PA overnight) 'should' develop some briefly heavy showers or a thunderstorm for parts of our NYC forum early Wednesday morning, especially nw NJ/se NYS. After any clusters pass, cloud debris/instability pooling and surface wind shift convergence boundaries will probably be the determinants of when and where heavy convection occurs Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Heaviest should be afternoon-early evening and per modeling, think the bulk of the FF/SVR should be along and north of I80 (far northern NJ, se NYS, CT and LI) but I defer to your assessments, and those of the NWS offices/SPC/WPC, and the modeling from the HRRR and SPC HREF. 734A/21