John1122
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About John1122
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Did you see the 0z GFS? We didn't get below 38-42 degrees from 114 to 348 and it showed a -PNA/+NAO that was pretty locked in for 10 days in a row with the California pipeline back in place. The 06z was full bore winter. Just noting that it's bouncing around a lot.
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I believe we are using a further upgraded version of the GFS vs last winter and it's doing miserably.
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Ignore them and look out the window with how it's gone this year. But the GFS has been really really bad this year. 3/4th of its runs are wildly wrong but since it changes so much from run to run, it falls into being right at least a few times a week. Massive investments and upgrades and models have gotten better at seeing storms a long way out but worse at details. Even in close to storm time. The Euro is actually most disappointing in that regard. The GFS was never great but you used to be able to almost lock in a d5 event if the Euro had it a few runs in a row. Now they all miss from 24 hours out if it's regarding frozen events.
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The Euro and Canadian maintain cold but not much winter precip for most of the area. Maybe something for far NW areas of the forum that run. I just paid an extra 50 percent on my utility bill and didn't have much snow to show for it from December. I hope that doesn't happen again this winter.
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Another wave of moderate sleet as the precip is moving back into my area. 36 degrees.
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Euro is a cutter at 162. Shocking as that is.
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Didn't expect it, but getting heavy sleet/snow mixed. Likely will change to rain shortly.
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That was probably the worst run of any model all winter. Amazing that it comes 24 hours after probably the best run of the whole winter and from the same model. Raging +NAO and -PNA with an Aleutian H locking in the -PNA. But congrats again to California. They get swamped and buried again. Another 6-8 feet in the Sierra.
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Here's how bad the GFS is with long range modeling. 00z last night we barely got above freezing from 144-300+. Tonight we don't get below freezing from 114 to 300+. The 1990 analog would be strong again if it's remotely right tonight, except this January will finish warmer than 1990.
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It's crazy to me how we don't even remotely have "normal" winters any more. It's either 2x normal snowfall or virtually nothing.
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Not surprisingly, the GFS is way warmer at day 9 than it was earlier at even 12z. Approximately 30 degrees warmer. I am now in believe it when it gets here mode regarding cold and winter threats. I won't be shocked if we are warm into spring, then we get some wet snow days in late March or April.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This frosty morning near Cove Lake State park on Highway 25w in Caryville.
