John1122

Down go the Gators! I nearly had a heart attack at the end, but sweet relief. Heupel looks like a genius on offense, hopefully we can pull off some form of defense.

Made it down to 43 this morning. Currently 65 and sunny.

The GFS is hot still, but not as hot as it was 36 hours ago, which was bonkers hot, the Canadian is cooler than the GFS and the Euro is cooler than the Canadian at D8-10. The ensembles are seemingly hotter than the ops. One thing that does appear to happen, it will get dry here during that time frame. I hate it when we get really hot and dry as leaves begin to fall due to wildfire danger literally in my back yard.

Thought this one was fired up already since fall started a couple weeks ago. Just realized I was posting in the spring/summer thread still. Of course love to keep winter storm obs in the storm threads for later reading all in a single thread. But these are good for daily obs or notable events outside the storm threads. That said, I hit 47.3 this morning after a day time high of 69 degrees yesterday. Pretty similar temperatures for this same period in September 2015 when we got a nice first cold front of the season on 9/13 and had two days of great temps. It was 70/46 on 9/13 and 66/43 on 9/14 that year. Current temp is 71 degrees here, sunny. It was 72 about an hour ago but dropped back a little. In 2015 we never got back above the 84ish range after the front. It had been in the upper 80s for days on end leading into it.

Great taste of fall out there today. 68 degrees and sunny can't be beat in mid-September.

The GFS is showing a crazy heat dome in the center of the country in about 8-12 days. On day 9 the 0z is showing 105-110 for West Tennessee, NW Miss, and Arkansas. The Euro isn't as hot, the Canadian isn't as hot either but it's spread out across the forum area with temps near 90-95

I think you guys and west Tennessee might be primed for a third snowy winter in a row, especially with the Nina looking to be in the weak range. The spine of the Apps seems to often be the battle ground in that set up, with potential for big early snows if it behaves anything like past 3rd year Ninas.

Pretty good day of football. Vols win vs a top 20 team on the road, Notre Dame loses, Texas A&M gets embarrassed, Florida loses, unfortunately Darth Saban pulled it out.

We had a normal amount of fireflies it seemed like to me. They do like wet weather though and struggle more in drought years, so if you were dry in late spring and early summer it might hamper your area a bit. Otherwise, I can't explain it.

Euro Snowfall vs Normal Dec/Jan

Just read an article about the stratospheric cooling that's happened this year in the Southern Hemisphere. The article noted that cold stratosphere conditions in the Southern Hemisphere as they move into summer usually indicate the opposite in the Northern Hemisphere. There was a moderate correlation to a -NAO in the winter here as the Southern stratosphere cooled over the Polar regions there. There was also a possible connection to warming/weakened Polar Vortex conditions over the north pole when the stratosphere was colder than normal in the South Pole areas. The stratosphere down South is hitting record lows and that's drifting futher South towards the pole as the year is wearing on. So possible good news for the winter lovers, of which we mostly seem to be as a group.

Rowdy storms and heavy rain for hours last night. The thunder just kept rolling and shaking the house. Three different waves.

The GFS pulled a fast one at 12z, will see if it's a blip or a trend. Several days in a row it's had a big cool shot to close out the month and begin next month. At 00z it had lows in the 40s for Sept 1st for a large part of the region. 12 hours later, lows near 75 and a heatwave with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. At 00z Sept 1st at 1pm central the temp was forecast to be 68 in Nashville, at 12z it's now forecast to be 99. That's a mega swing. It did that often last winter too, with 30 and 40 degree temperature differences from run to run.

September looks to come in and remain chilly if the models are to be believed. It would be nice to have an actual cool down in fall rather than the burners we've had lately. Makes for tough Friday evening football. Comfortable weather would be a refreshing change.

Weird pattern today. 1 to 3 mile wide bands of extremely heavy rain, with dry and sunny weather in between. Been driving through them across Campbell, Anderson and now Knox as I'm heading to the K.O.C Jamboree at Central.