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John1122

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About John1122

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCSV
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  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. John1122
    It's been pouring here for the last hour and a half. It's rare to see 70+ percent rain chances for 10 days in a row. But we're close to it.
  2. John1122
    92-93 was ENSO neutral. But summer of 1993 was hot. I remember there was a 20+ day 90+ streak in Knoxville. Jan 94 had an as cold or colder version of what we experienced in January this year. It was one of those epic cold fronts that dropped temps 30 or so degrees in a few hours. Knoxville got heavy freezing rain, with a couple inches of snow on top of it that got set like concrete by late afternoon because the temps fell from low 30s to single digits in a few hours. Well below zero cold followed, around -15 here with highs in the single digits over around 6 or 7 inches of snow cover. We didn't get the freezing rain that areas south of here got. 94-95 was a moderate El Nino, it transitioned to a moderate La Nina in 95-96. '95 has been similar to this summer here. Hot start, very dry. It flipped wet and cooler. 94-95 was also a rising QBO. It peaked in June 1995 and was positive but falling through the end of 1995. Sept-Dec 1995 were all BN. We had evening snow showers one day imby in mid-October. Very different pattern in the upper Midwest that year though. They set heat records. Some places in Wisconsin approached 110 in July 1995.
  3. John1122
    Picked up over an inch of rain today and my third heavy rain/thunder event of the day is underway. This pattern looks to last 5 or 6 more days at least. Incredible shift in pattern from the first 40 or so days of summer. The Nino to Nina 1995 patten also abruptly shifted from extended hot and dry to extended rainy and cooler. It started later and ended later than this one, though.
  4. John1122
    Absolutely epic rainer here. .73 inches in 45 minutes. Looks like another wave to come unless it falters.
  5. John1122
    Doing some reading today, the QBO westerly, aka positive, may be to our benefit due to La Nina. During neutral or La Nina, the QBO being negative actually tends to hurt our winter chances. Apparently during La Nina the QBO is much more likely to affect polar regions. During El Nino the QBO is more likely to affect the tropics. This study days that QBOW is more likely to produce cold air for the mid-lat continents and above average snowfall. It says that the effect is magnified during La Nina. This is from a paper I was reading. "During QBO W (G1, Fig. 3, second column) a 100 hPa ridge is amplified over the Bering Sea, near the base of the climatological Aleutian High44, MSLP is higher over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are colder and snowier. During QBO E (G2, Fig. 3, third column) there is a somewhat different wave two anomaly pattern, with low 100 hPa heights over the Bering Sea, reduced MSLP over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are warmer and less snowy. After confirming a consistent result with our previous study 26 that the H-T mechanism is amplified during the La Niña period, the present study investigates the QBO teleconnection with the boreal winter surface climate of NH mid and high latitudes regions in the presence and absence of El Niño and La Niña effects. A significant modulation of the climate dynamics governing surface anomalies is observed in the zonal mean and zonally asymmetric quantities for a specific QBO phase at the centroid angle of 180° for neutral ENSO period only (– 0.4 K <Niño 3.4 index <– 0.4 K). This specific QBO phase group G1 corresponds to maximum westerly wind at 70 hPa (QBO W) and simultaneously opposite easterly maximum at 20 hPa, whereas the G2 group (QBO E) has the opposite signs. The QBO modulations of surface temperature and snow depth in Eurasia and North America illustrates a systematic association with MSLP in the Arctic region. High-pressure conditions over the polar region induce colder temperatures over the midlatitude continents and vice-versa. It is observed that ENSO neutral and QBO W favors a high value of MSLP (>6 hPa) over the polar region (>50°N), and cold conditions (~2–4 K) with high snow depth over Eurasia and North America, and the opposite effects during QBO E. A comparison of the anomaly patterns for QBO W and QBO E shows that the response is fairly linear, with marginally stronger amplitude for QBO W. During QBO W, anticyclonic anomalies are found at 100 hPa over the Bering Sea and the high North Atlantic. This favors higher arctic MSLP, especially in the North Atlantic. The pattern of colder surface temperatures extends farther into the midlatitudes, with enhanced snowfall farther south than normal, favoring a low-index NAM23 and negative AO31. During QBO E, the Aleutian High and the trough over eastern North America at 100 hPa are reduced in amplitude such that the polar vortex is more zonally symmetric, with a region of lower MSLP over the pole. Such a high index NAM/AO flow confines polar air to higher latitudes, giving a warm anomaly across Eurasia and North America and reduced snow depth."
  6. John1122
    Had about an hour and fifteen minutes of moderate rain there around 1 to 2:15. No thunder or anything in it. Picked up another .26 inches. Looks like some more in the pipeline, looked like MRX had Tri area with some higher chances. Pretty much the entire forum area should get in on it over the next several days.
  7. John1122
    I've gotten three rounds and over an inch of rain. The last storm packed a punch and my power is out.
  8. John1122
    Looking at the QBO readings, it's rising currently and on average it rises for 7 months then begins falling. It should begin falling in Jan or February. From what I read a few years ago, the actual reading didn't matter regarding enhanced blocking, the direction of the QBO is what mattered. If the reading was negative but rising, it meant less blocking. If it was positive but falling, it meant blocking was more likely.
  9. John1122
    It's crazy that probably 80 miles as the crow files means 15 inches or so difference in average yearly rainfall totals.
  10. John1122
    Just had another soaker. The storms aren't large in area but they absolutely flood down rain. They are odd in that the thunder is frequent as they approach, then it rains very hard with virtually no thunder, then once they pass you hear the thunder again. The Euro ens is advertising around 200 percent of normal rain across the forum area the next two weeks. We'll see if it comes to pass but I'm definitely off to a good start imby.
  11. John1122
    Pulled off two different storms today. The last one around 5:20-5:50 produced minor street flooding. It felt miserable between them but the air temperature wasn't too bad.
  12. John1122
    Had a 30 minute thunderstorm around 1pm today. Capped the heating and only made 88. Glad for any moisture in the leaf bed before fall. Hopefully the rain the rest of the week comes to fruition.
  13. John1122
    Getting some July 1995 vibes now. It was a La Nina that transitioned from a moderate El Nino. The heat cranked up on July 10th that year and stayed pedal to the floor into August. The rainiest day of the month was .09 in Knoxville and the monthly rain total was only .33 inches. Knoxville had 14 days of 95+ in July and 13 more in August. August 12th-19th went 96, 98, 98, 99, 100, 99, 98, 98. August was a bit wetter with 2 inches. Summer finally broke down in September and we actually had a cold fall and very cold winter. This year the heat and dry weather started a bit earlier and hasn't been quite as severe as 1995 yet. Hopefully it doesn't last a solid 8 weeks like it did in the summer of 1995.
  14. John1122
    It's crazy warm tonight with the hurricane remnants bringing all the tropical air north. It's 1:30 am and 77 degrees and I'm one of the cool spots. It's still 82 at Tri-Cities, 81 at Knoxville, Nooga, Middleboro, and 80 at Morristown.
  15. John1122
    Had about 3 minutes of heavy rain then it went away and the sun came back out. The 6-10 and 8-14 say AN precip, but it's not the first time it has and it didn't happen.
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