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John1122

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About John1122

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCSV
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  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. John1122

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    There are some high ridges in that area, 1400-1800 feet. In a normal year you'll double or triple Knoxville area snow. Mainly because it will snow in the area more often. Southern Campbell County tends to be a sharp dividing line in many events.
  2. John1122

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    You should definitely see an uptick in winter weather vs Knoxville, depending on the elevation you live at, a pretty decent one if it's above 1500 feet.
  3. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    It may not start early because it seems to be stuck in a pattern of not doing so, but as long as it's not a strong or very strong Nino, December is fair game for winter going full bore. Look no further than 2009 to see it get rolling early. Many other years December was wintry with El Nino. I think recently we had some very warm fall/summers and a lot of latent heat was built up around the globe. Those caused winter to get started later than normal. I would love to see a November come in cooler than normal, after that we have a good shot at cold enough winter weather. Positives going into fall, we aren't in a drought. That alone should help fall not be overly hot. The oceans look more favorable this year than in a while. Seeing that much of the Atlantic basin below normal hasn't been common, it's usually kept a ton of hangover heat. It's that cool in the basin without upwelling from major tropical systems. Last year everything below the 45th was above average. Plus the cold pool reaching the west coast across the central Pacific looks good for +PDO conditions. We've seen how dominant it can be and often is for our weather pattern. It's a strong signal for below normal temps and above normal precip in the Southeast. Edit: Tried to post sea surface map but it's having none of it.
  4. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Yes, it was a legendary outbreak of both cold and snow for the entire region from Memphis to the Tri-Cities. That was with a QBO peaking downward in August and then rising quickly into winter. 2005-06 had a much later peak into late fall and was blazing hot in January. I wonder if there is as Carvers mentioned any relationship to QBO and SSWE? Looking back to the 1950s when the QBO was -10 or lower in DJF and checking the NAO status we find the following. 1956-57 it was -15, -13, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, mildly positive and mildly negative in DJF. This was at the end of the cycle. 1962-63 it was -15, -17, -16 DJF. The NAO was moderately negative each month. This was entering the negative cycle. 1965-66 it was -21, -21, -17 DJF. The NAO was positive, moderately negative, and moderately negative. This was ending the cycle. 1970-71 it was -17, -11, and then +3 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative, neutral. This was ending the cycle. Also, keep in mind this was the 8th straight mostly -NAO winter in a row in the 1960s into 1970. The 60s were like a mini ice age here and the NAO was negative regardless of QBO phase. 1974-75 it was -22, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was moderately positive, positive and negative DJF. This was the end of the cycle. 1976-77 it was -11, -14, -15 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative and negative. This was beginning the cycle. 1979-80 it was -17, -11, -6 in DJF. The NAO was positive, negative, negative. This was the end of the cycle. The winters of the 1970s were also -NAO for the most part. I believe 6 of them averaged negative. The most negative NAO month was February 1978. Which happened during a winter of entirely +QBO with it climbing. 1981-82 it was -12, -12, -14 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, negative, positive. It was beginning the cycle and the NAO got more positive as the QBO went more negative. 1983-84 it was -11, -10, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, positive. This was the beginning of the cycle. That cycle ended in November of 84 and was neutral when the great cold wave of 85 hit. The lowest NAO average of the 1980s came in a month when the QBO was neutral. 1986-87 it was -10, -11, -10 in what was a weak downward valley. The NAO was positive, negative, negative during this one. It was the beginning of the cycle. 1991-92 it was -13, -14, -14 in DJF. The NAO was mildly positive, mildly negative, mildly positive those 3 months. This was the beginning of the phase. It didn't fall back below -10 the rest of the 1990s. The most negative NAOs of the 1990s came when the QBO was very mildly negative, around -3. The only winter with a DJF with the -NAO each month features a neutral QBO of around +1 to -1. 2000-01 DJF was -14, -15, -15 DJF. The NAO was basically neutral all 3 winter months. This was the beginning of the cycle. 2005-06 it was -25, -18, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, negative for the 3 months. It was ending the cycle, the NAO actually got more negative after the cycle died out. It was almost -2 in March 06 after the QBO had hit neutral. 2007-08 it was -20, -12, -5. The NAO was neutral/mildly positive all 3 months. This was the ending of the cycle. 2009-10 it was -16, -16, -17. The NAO was negative all three months. This was the start of the cycle. 2011-12 it was -16, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was extremely positive, positive, and neutral. This was the start of the cycle. 2014-15 it was -25, -26, -28 in DJF. The NAO was moderately positive DJF. This was the beginning of the cycle. The Pacific crushed the Atlantic signals that winter. 2017-18 -18, -19, -19 DJF. The NAO was positive, positive, and positive for the winter. This was also the beginning of the cycle. We were cold in January but once again the Pacific drove the bus. In those 18 winters of the most negative QBO we find that in 31 of the 54 months the NAO was neutral or positive. In 23 months it was negative. Overall out of 187 winter months since 1956-57, the NAO was negative for 68 of them and neutral or positive for 119 of them with a large number of those months taking place in the 1960s and 70s.
  5. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    It may fortell blocking, but it doesn't seem to fortell cold/warm winters. Probably the one thing I did notice was that in winters that it was negative and cold, it tended to be when it was dropping from positive to negative rather than late in its negative cycle. But I'm not sure anything could be inferred from that because as I mentioned, sometimes it's deeply negative and we torch. Sometimes it's positive and we freeze. The opposite of those seem to occur as well. We are fridgid when it's negative and warm when it's positive. I would have thought 2006 would have been extremely cold if it was going to lead to blocking. It was dropping into record low territory through fall 2005. Instead of blocking in the N Atl we had the SE ridge and the lowest temp in Knoxville for the whole month of January was 24. There are often days when it's not that warm for the high in January with good blocking in place. I'll look more closely at sensible weather when it's negative vs positive. But in 1959-60 there was incredible Atlantic blocking when it was positive. I believe that 1977-78 was also a blocky time in the Atlantic and it was positive. There are other examples of it being negative with no blocking to speak of as well, like 2005-06. So there are certain signals that seem to be much more of a guarantee regarding sensible weather here. PNA/AO/NAO trump all other signals in my opinion, including ENSO. The PDO is also a strong signal to see what the weather will do here as well. The PDO trumped a super Nino and a +NAO a couple years ago and delivered enough cold to produce savage winter weather. There are other signals that seem to have less impact or at least less is known about their impact. I feel like the QBR is one of them.
  6. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Looking at the QBO reveals extremely mixed results heading into winter. 1984-1985 was a negative summer that went neutral to positive in winter. As a matter of fact, it was -27.10 in August of 1984. A record low at the time, after being -25.39 in July of 1984, also a record low. In 2005-06 that record was broken, but then it peaked down in November at -29 after having set a record the prior month at -28, it managed to stay in the -25 range for December. That was not a good winter for snow/cold lovers. It was actually one of, if not the warmest winters I recall. Both 1984-85 and 2005-2006 were weak La Nina years. But absolutely opposite in the intensity of winter. In 1959-1960 it was positive the entire winter. In 1995-1996 it was very weakly negative. In 1977-1978 it flipped from negative to positive in summer and stayed positive in winter. So to me, it seems to have little effect on the intensity of the winter we experience. We can be extremely mild while it's deeply negative and we can be extremely cold and snowy while it's positive. Then the opposite seems to occur too with about the same frequency. So I'm not sure it's a particularly useful tool to try and make a winter forecast. November can be very key though. We virtually always have a cold/snowy winter if it's the temps average below normal in November.
  7. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    I was reading some information last night about the winters of 100 to 200 years ago in the region. It's incredible. 10 inches of snow on May 20th on the Plateau with feet in the Smokies, and I believe 2 inches in Knoxville. Snow fell in Tennessee but didn't stick in June 1865. The high temperature on July 4th in 1816 was likely in the 40s in Knoxville. There were multiple 15+ inch snow events in the valley region but there were no official records. Only newspaper reports. Throughout the 1800s and into the Early 1900s the Tennessee river would freeze over in Knoxville and ice flows from the Clinch and other tributaries would flow into Knoxville. At one point the river froze so solidly that it was 12 inches thick in the middle and people were driving wagons across it. It snowed so regularly in December Knoxville had a sleigh festival on a yearly basis. In more recent times there was the wild November 1952 snow storm that effected Corbin Ky to Scott County to the Tri-Cities down through Knoxville to Athens. I was reading an old newspaper report from then that said a man who lived in Powell worked in Kingston for TVA. He left Kingston with no snow on the ground and arrived in Knoxville to find 12 inches in West Knox county and 20 inches by the time he arrived in Powell. It was an incredible cut-off from no snow to over a foot of snow. There was the crazy 1951 event from the Plateau west where that area was buried in snow and ice, but the Knoxville to Tri-Cities area only received .2 inches of ice and didn't get nearly as cold as Nashville. Tri-Cities was 60 degrees on Jan 31st, Knoxville, barely west of Tri was 44, and west of Knoxville it was in the 20s and 30s with freezing rain, sleet and snow all day. The next day it was 62 at Tri, a midnight high of 45 in Knoxville and 22 in Nashville. Areas from the Plateau west ended up with 3-5 inches of solid ice compacted on the ground and temperatures 20-30 degrees colder than the far eastern valley areas. We had similar weather a few years ago here in the February blitz but not quite to the extreme of that event. I enjoy looking back through old news paper articles to see this stuff.
  8. John1122

    ENSO 2018

    If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range.
  9. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    That was a great event for the whole state basically. I was lucky enough to stay all snow and ended up with 13 inches. I believe the central valley and central plateau of East Tennessee had some major mixing issues with freezing rain and sleet.
  10. John1122

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    In reply to Carvers post in the spring/summer pattern thread about El Nino being back loaded. I've seen both front loaded and back loaded. 2009-2010 started fast and furious and never let up until late February. A couple years ago it was super back loaded and we got bombed in February. Here are some of our Nino Decembers. Early December of 1957 it snowed 3 inches and got to -7 degrees then warmed up later in the month. Strong Nino December of 1958 it was frigid, around 5 degrees below normal for the month, lots of lows in the 10s, snowed just over 2 inches for the month. Very dry with only 1.5 inches of rain total. December of 1963 it was super cold for December. 8 days in the single digits for lows, peaking down at -5 on 12-19. It snowed on 14 days of the month, the last 10 days were pure winter. 7 inches of snow on 12-22, 8 inches on 12-23, 7 inches on 12-31. December of 1965 it was a drought. It was average to above on temps. Snowed a couple of times, December 1st it was 9 degrees. Less than 1 inch of rain for the month. Strong Nino December of 1968 it was below normal on temps, snowed on 8 days, 2 inches was the biggest event on 12-4-68. 10 days with lows in the 10s, highest temp was 57. Coldest day was 24/13 with snowshowers on 12-15-68. December of 1969, which was a weak Nino, was cold with a huge snow event on Christmas day with 8 inches falling. Snow fell on 13 days of the month. December of 1972 was a torch, around 5 degrees above normal for the month. There were still a few cold/snow showery days but overall wet with 10 inches of rain, and warm. December of 1976 was cold, snowed on 5 different days, snowed 2 inches on 12-21, snowed an inch on the 29th, the temp shot p to 50 and it changed to rain on the 30th, but it switched back to snow and snowed 1.5 inches on the backside of the system. 12-31 was the coldest day at 23-2. December of 1977 was about 2 degrees below average overall and it snowed on 10 different days. None were more than .5 inches though. December of 1979 was mild, 2 degrees above average but snow fell on 4 different days of the month, also less than .5 inches each event. This was a weak Nino and it's a rareish one that was above normal in December. December of 1982 was very warm, around 6 degrees above normal with 8 inches of rain. We had a 5 inch snow during the month though. Very strong Nino. December of 1986 had a few days of snowshowery weather and was around 1 degree below normal overall for the month. This general pattern continues, if the Nino is strong or very strong, December is probably going to be AN and either very wet or very dry. If the Nino is weak or moderate, it's often game on in December, but not always.
  11. The -NAO/-AO is going to eventually return for winter, but it's a believe it when I see it thing for me at this point. This is the worst time of year for me weather wise, over the heat but knowing it's still got weeks and weeks to go. Fortunately it's not so bad right now. Generally spending a week in late July/August in the upper 70s isn't too bad at all and it looks like I'll be there for the next 5-6 days.
  12. John1122

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    This is one of those days where you can look at the radar and see the plateau and mountains. The rain just developed and is sitting over both areas.
  13. John1122

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph.
  14. John1122

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate. Looks like a bow echo on radar.
  15. John1122

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Just had a very high wind/heavy rain storm roll through. Winds justified the severe warning. Sideways sheets like you'd see in a hurricane, was hard to hold the car in the road from the wind.
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