John1122
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Snow is falling at Somerset Kentucky, and Jackson has moderate snow falling. It's snowed all night there. 33 and rain at London Ky, 34 at Williamsburg, 35 and rain here.
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Crossville is reporting 37 and "precipitation". That usually indicates some kind of frozen precip. 38.7 here. SWKY upgraded to a winter storm warning.
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The sad thing is the polar vortex descended again like it did in 1985 but instead of setting up over northern Ohio it was west and that is why it was record cold in the midwest. It's been a brutal winter 250 miles n and nw of our forum area. You know much more about enso than me, but I've read that this didn't end up being a Modoki for the most part.
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It's down to 42 degrees here, so the temp is definitely trending downwards.
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The Euro shifted south again, Now has mby getting close to an inch and almost all of Southern Kentucky with 1-3, with significant ice in NW TN right to NW Davidson County.
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The Euro keeps edging frozen south. I think @Kentucky could see something out of this. Blunderstorm may as well.
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The Euro slipped another 25-50 miles south with the frozen precip again for this weekend. NWTn still looks favorable for ice, Kentucky/SWVA looks like they could gets snow, heavy snow right across central Kentucky, could effect travel to the Kentucky game if anyone tries to go up Friday as I-75 sees heavy snow from around London Ky and north overnight Friday, the Euro now has snow/rain down into northern East Tennessee. Getting close, will have to see if the South trend continues any or if it's about as far south as it's going to get.
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The 06z NAM stepped up the winter threat for northern areas of the forum region. Lots of ice and some areas of moderate to heavy snow, parts of SWVA see .25+ freezing rain and 3-5 inches of snow. Parts of southern Kentucky also see 1-2 inches of snow and some ice. NW Tennessee gets heavy ice, over .50. The ice threat got heavier and further south and if the NAM verified there could be decent icing even in NW Davidson. The NAM actually stepped towards the FV3 solution and really stepped up with the streak of snow across Kentucky into SWVA. It wasn't there at all on 0z. The models showed something similar a few days ago but it went away. Hopefully the snowline can start to be seen on more models and trend further south. The 0z Euro puts the Southern 1/3rd of Kentucky on the edge of moderate snow, but that represents a 75-100 mile shift south with the snow axis from 12z today. As I said, models a few days ago had that snow streak running along the TN/KY line down to nearly I-40 with ice below it. Not going to hold my breath, but hopefully the southern trend continues. The Low tracks south of us, but not quite far enough yet. We need it to go another 100 miles to 150 miles south.
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NW areas of the valley are looking more and more likely to have some frozen precip in a few days. The 12k NAM and 3k NAM are beginning to show some widespread ice in areas west of Nashville. It even looks like Davidson itself could get some ice on the NW side if the 12K NAM is to be believed. Southern Kentucky could also see some decent ice. The FV3, being the FV3 is a near catastrophic ice event in the NW areas with some places getting .60 inches of ice per the model. The regular GFS and Canadian are both slightly north and mainly effect SW Kentucky.
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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That station gets over 800 inches of snow a year. It snows usually every month of the year there too. Above it, on Rainier is my favorite place to look at point forecasts. You'll see 30+ inch days for days on end forecast at times. -
Normally I would be more optimistic, I used to get at least one 3-6 inch snow in March almost every year, probably 4 out of 5, and I got one last year. But it was on the first day of spring after a terrible winter. I love any snow when it's falling but seeing thick snow on apple and cherry buds didn't overjoy me like snow does in true winter months.
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Too add further insult I just saw a video of heavy snow falling in Vegas for the first time in several years. The pacific runs things here. Always hope for a big -EPO that couples with a +PNA. That's what crushed the super nino year one a few years ago.
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I'm not sure about two weeks, but from a week out the GFS nailed the snow in the NW, Upper Midwest and New England. It only missed the snow it was showing in the south.
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I've seen some mets saying next year will possibly be a mod-strong Nino. The strong Nino is often a deathnell but danged if I didn't get snowslammed in the first year of it a couple of years back. Granted that second year hangover from it was poor but that's the new pattern, huge or nothing.
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Until the snow pipeline cuts off in Seattle, we're going to be hard pressed to find winter here. It's ridiculous that we can't buy a decent event but Hawaii is setting snow records and Seattle is having it's snowiest winter in 50 years but alas that's the story of winter here and I don't expect anything to rewrite this script. This will probably go down as my least favorite winter ever and that's saying a lot because the last two were not pleasant for a snow lover, since I'm not a huge fan of late March and Early April snow.
