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John1122

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About John1122

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCSV
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  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. The best of the best will see -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA but that's rare. The NAO holds bigger influence the further east, especially along the East coast but I've found articles today that talk about how favorable the -EPO is for even New Jersey. The EPO is a much better cold delivery mechanism and imo we are going to struggle more with temps than precipitation in any given winter. There are times when all the teleconnections fail us but there are very few great winter periods here that didn't have a -EPO in the mix but quite a few nice storms and periods without the -NAO.
  2. 2006 we had multiple snowy days in February, including a big one imby around V-Day give or take a day or two (going on memory here) and quite a few snow showery days and well BN temps. The coldest days were around the 18th/19th at around -15 to -20bn. EPO NAO MJO 8-1 low amp.
  3. I already made a post about how so many of our periods of great winter weather are EPO influenced and I'm going to move to here for more. I'll start with 2003. There were two snow events in these periods. Knoxville had 2-4 inches on the 16th and 3-5 on the 23rd. Highs in the lower 20s and lows from 3 to -3 across the area. EPO NAO MJO was c.o.d Ph 6-7 then 3 days in c.o.d 8 before quickly going back to c.o.d 7 and diving across the c.o.d towards 2-3. The coldest days of this were the two days that followed the times the EPO was below -200. The NAO remained positive throughout February. The EPO spiked back negative again in Early Feb. Knoxville had 10 straight days BN. Had 1.5 inches of snow Feb 6, a trace Feb 8th, 1 inch Feb 9th, 2 inches Feb 10th. The MJO was low amp 3-4 during that time frame.
  4. I just disagree about the EPO and how it shapes winter events here. Our best/historical winter events are very much tied to -EPO events, and the most epic ones feature the holy trinity of -EPO/-NAO/-AO, (the temp in Nashville in Jan 1963 dropped 61 degrees with 6 inches of snow in a day when they aligned, which happened fairly often in the 1960s). However a lot of our big events and extended winter periods are EPO driven more so than NAO driven. . This last event in Jan was so impressive because the EPO sent the cold from Siberia/Alaska into the lower 48 and we got a historic duration snow depth record in Knoxville due to it. The EPO is the bringer of cross polar flow. The NAO was only negative for the first two days of it. The EPO was negative through the week and we remained in the ice box, setting up the additional freezing rain/snow and sub zero cold. When the EPO flipped positive we warmed up 42 degrees in a day 36 hours or so after it flipped and were 50 degrees warmer than we'd been 48 hours earlier the day after that. Sometimes we get the -NAO too but often it's a non-factor in our big winter events. The -EPO being absent for big winter (cold/snow) events is more rare in my experience. Just looking at our winter events that are memorable to me in the last 40ish years and some notable storms and winter periods a bit earlier. Jan 1st - 15th 1981, 5 inches of snow, 7 days with lows between -1 and 1. +NAO, -EPO. EPO went positive and we warmed up. EPO crashed again by Jan 30th. 4 inch snow event and 0 lows by the 31st. The NAO was neutral/ very +. The EPO remained super negative through mid Feb. Snow fell on 6 of those days and we were below 10 for lows for 8 days with a low of -8. The NAO was very positive the entire time. Knoxville departures from normal during that timeframe were -5, -10, -20, -14, -17, -4, -7, -6, -4, -10, -27, -14. The EPO flipped positive and the rest of the month torched. The NAO actually went neutral/negative during the warm up. December 2001 we had a prolonged deeply negative NAO for two weeks. The EPO was very positive and we baked in 70 degree December weather. The EPO went negative around Christmas and suddenly we went BN. The only downside of the -EPO is that it can get dry. It rarely ever fails to deliver cold. Other memorable events and the teleconnections. Epic Jan 1951 winter storm to close the month. Deeply -EPO/+NAO Big March 2022 event. A week of -EPO set the stage. The NAO was + throughout. Blizzard of 1993 neutral/+ NAO, -EPO February 1996 major snow, super cold, neutral/ rising NAO / very -EPO when we bottomed out at -20 on Feb 4th. Dec 1989 record cold. Massive -EPO/ +NAO January '88 major snow +NAO/-EPO Jan 29th-30th 2010. mildly -NAO (-0.3) with very -EPO Jan 10-13 2011, cold, snowy with huge snow event that got most of the forum. Very -EPO with neutral, rising into + NAO. 2015 epic mid-late February cold/frozen precip, very +NAO/ -EPO April 1987 huge snow neutral/+NAO/-EPO March 1980 big snow/very cold +NAO/-EPO January 1994 extreme cold/snow +NAO/-EPO Epic 1998 paste job neutral NAO/-EPO 2004 Feb 15th event mentioned in the historic thread. 6 straight days of -EPO leading into it. +NAO. It's way less common to see big winter here with a +EPO and -NAO combination but I'm sure it's happened. It's also happened with both being neutral or mildly positive. (we got a major Christmas snow in 1969 with both the NAO and EPO positive, but the EPO had been moderately negative a few days before it and the NAO had been mildly negative. The picture below is the NAO for January 1-24th 1978. The EPO was deeply negative during this time frame. It featured below zero temps and 12-20+ inches of snow across the region. This is why I always want the Pacific on our side. From Mountain City to Memphis the EPO is usually involved in the big winter threats.
  5. The strong pac jet is mauling any attempts at blocking there. This time of year it's hard to get cold enough for snow without Pacific help. The models were showing a developing -EPO that stayed in place, but now they are briefly showing it going negative and it moves out quickly. The snow/cold in January coincided with a major EPO ridge. It was negative for 6 days and it unloaded cold onto us. Most of our sub zero type cold comes from -EPO incidents.
  6. Had a vivid and loud thunderstorm this evening as we left for Chattanooga. Super super heavy rain too.
  7. Looks like the Pacific isn't going to allow us to return to winter. The GFS pretty much says the firehose stays on out west. When you see most of California getting flooded and 16 day snowfall totals approaching 200 inches in the Sierra, we're not likely to have much in the way of winter weather. Oh well, at least we got a great 10 days or so this year, that's better than last year.
  8. It looked like the Euro would've delivered the goods had it went 24 more hours. A long way to go with this one but fingers crossed we can get another event before winter ends.
  9. From 264-270 that run, 8 inches of snow falls imby. Not to be outdone, from 270-276 12 inches falls. The wild thing, temps that follow it are similar to what we had in January, highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s and lows between -3 and 10ish are widespread. I'd love to see such an event come to pass, in 1960 the first big storm in February was a brute with similar totals.
  10. 21 inches imby. Everyone does okay 40 and north. That's actually 1 of 2 for some areas in the western forum. They get 4-8 inches a few days before it on the back side of a low. Areas just west of Clarksville also get 20 inch totals. 24 hour snowfall
  11. The GFS has it too and it took a big jump SE at 12z. That's been a decent trend this winter on modeling.
  12. That's why if I went west I'd to to Mammoth. The town is at 8,000 feet with tons of housing at 9-10k around the resort. They seem extremely efficient at clearing roads too. The fellow who does one of the channels I watch lives at about 9100 in what looks basically like a subdivision. Last year snow depth was over his 2nd story back deck, which is 26 feet in the air. I honestly thought about moving to upstate New York but I get outvoted. Real estate seems affordable in the Tug Hull plateau.
  13. I've been fortunate enough to be in heavy lake effect before but not like that. How widespread is it there? I've always heard a 10 mile wide path may get 3 or 4 feet but outside that it might just be a few inches.
  14. From the Mammoth area. At some point when I see atmospheric river forecast well in advance, gonna have to rent a chalet up there and make the trip. They got 3+ feet yesterday, not sure how much more last night. I was watching a youtube video filmed yesterday at just over 9000 feet and the guy said it was snowing 4 inches per hour. 339 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 feet. Additional snow accumulations as high as 7 feet are possible at elevations above 8,000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The Sierra Nevada above 5000 feet. * WHEN...Valid through 4 AM PST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.
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