John1122
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They also forecast weak El Nino, as Jax showed with his charts for the Mid-Valley, it's the most favorable set up we get for BN winters. They may not be bone chilling like last year, but they are usually those days in the 30s, lows in the upper 10s to low 20s type winter days that actually let snow happen here instead of low 20s for highs and 0 degree lows that show the storm track to the central Gulf with snow on the coasts.
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Not terrible maps at all from the NCEP on the new 90 day lead. WATE put out a story that is imo, misleading about it, saying we're going to have a warm winter. The EC here is standard, NCEP very rarely forecasts BN for any parts of the nation. More importantly to me, the highest chance of AN is squarely in the Pac NW would should be good news for a +pna. AN high chances of precip just to out SE suggests what should be a favorable storm track for winter weather across the whole valley.
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Thanks! I always like comparing snow cover from one year to the next. Looks like Eastern Canada is much more snow covered this year vs last year when it was confined to NW Canada for the most part.
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I'd guess temp numbers across the entire region would be similar as far as Nino winters. Moderate to weak both show a higher chance of below normal vs above normal than Strong/Neutral winters. Looks like with last week's update the NCEP is predicting something in the 1 degree above normal range. For comparisons sake, the 2009-10 Nino was +1.5 and the 2015-16 monster was +2.6. Ranges appear to be + 0-.5 = neutral. .5-1 = weak. 1-1.6 = moderate. 1.7-2 .1 = strong. Above 2.2 = very strong.
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Is there a good place for Northern Hemisphere snowcover maps? https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/ That site has been broken for a while. It directs to a page that says their security is improperly configured if I try to view any images, regardless of which browswer I use.
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Only made it to the mid 50s today and the Vols pulled out a road win in SEC play. That's double winning.
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Noon hour and the temp is holding at 47 degrees. Summer to winter in a few days. Second observation. If your offense is struggling, play Tennessee and it will work much better.
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44 this morning, currently at 59 degrees. Supposed to be even cooler tomorrow, mid 50s maybe for highs. We may not get the classic lower 70s fall temp period, just from hot to late fall weather.
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It would be very nice to get that cooler November. Even 1 degree below normal seems to make a pretty big difference in how winter plays out. It's not a guaranteed analog, nothing ever is in long range weather and we could freeze in November and still torch, but that cooler set up going into winter helps more often than it hurts. I assume it gives our source cold region more snowpack building time. We need a good snowpack over Southern Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota as early as possible. Some of our extreme warmth winters had those areas snow free until well into December.
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The first GFS fantasy flakes of the year! 99 percent chance this doesn't happen, but late October and flakes aren't terribly uncommon here. October 1995 had several snow showery days here, October 1993 saw 3 inches on Halloween. Both those led into good winters. The hurricane driven mountain monster snow didn't seem to translate to anything but a bleh winter a few years ago.
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GFS at 12z is all in for a freeze most areas North of 40 between day 8-10. The Euro from last night was suggest mid to upper 30s in those areas. The Canadian is about 15-20 degrees warmer in the same time frame than the GFS and is the warmest of the three. The experimental FV3 GFS is closer to the Euro. Either way, we're going to abruptly go from mid summer temperatures to mid fall temperatures. Highs will probably not get out of the 60s in some areas this weekend. Higher elevations will see 40s and 50s for highs. Crazy year, 90s to 60s without much middle ground and a few days apart.
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Looking more and more like we're about 8-10 days from the beginning of true fall temps. Probably have frost on the pumpkins by October 15th-20th for a good portion of the region.
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Just wanted to say I hope the health issues are behind you @jaxjagman I appreciate all you bring to the board. Not just your weather but updates about your son and your sports perspective. You're the only Jags fan I know!
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I'm still waiting to see a sign that things are getting better. Not really seeing it yet as we've been completely dominated by teams with a pulse. Georgia sleep walked and still rolled us. The same penalty repeating during punts is troubling. Look at Florida's turnaround and consider we've had better recruiting classes than them the last 4 years. 20 of Tennessee's 22 starters are 4 and 5 star recruits that were recruited by every top school in the nation.
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It wasn't blazing hot, it was just very warm both day and night. I've seen upper 90s in September but the unending upper 80s/mid 60s are what pushed it over the top. September is usually when we see the first cold fronts, no humidity days, crisp blue skies and temps in the 40s a few nights, and the 50s most nights. That just didn't happen. We had the rain that kept the high temps down but lows were still 8-10 degrees above normal.
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