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About John1122

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    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'
  1. I am much more encouraged too, by the QBO now that I've been looking more at what Carvers spoke of regarding it's effects on blocking. In it's easterly phase the -NAO is much more common that when it's in it's westerly phase, though it's no lock that it will bring the -NAO/AO. It was supposed to flip back towards easterly last December but was delayed for the first time in decades of observation. Now it has flipped back easterly and will be in the easterly phase for the next year or so as it cycles. There were excellent maps posted yesterday in the SE form regarding -NAO and it's effects in La Nina years. As I've often observed, the drivers of NAO/AO/PNA/PDO far outstrip the ENSO factor in our weather. The maps posted yesterday confirm that. -NAO/AO La Nina winters were frigid in the East. +NAO/AO winters were very warm. The QBO being neutral or negative didn't always mean a great winter. But many of our notable winters were negative or neutral QBO years. The same with the +QBO, not all were bad winters but most of our warm winters featured the QBO in it's deep westerly + phase. Sometimes you have winters where nothing seems to apply. Winter 2010-2011 was fairly cold and very snowy for me. The QBO was positive. LaNina was strong. The February NAO was was mildly positive. The PNA was negative and I still manged multiple February snow events in a strong La Nina year. The temps weren't subzero frigid in 2010-11 but they were cold enough to make for a good winter despite most indications that it shouldn't have been one, with snow events in December, including a large White Christmas, and several in January too.
  2. Apps runners can work well, especially for the western half of the valley, so even if it didn't do that much here, I'd like it for the western folks to get some nice winter storms. Plus, some of the most absolutely beastly winter storms in the history of the area were apps runners. Someday another of those will happen. We used to receive huge 12-20 inch snows across a large part of the entire valley at least every 10-15 years. Not sure when the last really widespread one was. Knoxville probably hasn't recorded a 10+ inch snowfall since 1993. Best case scenario tracks for winter storms in the Valley are these two. With the clipper systems that dig being a 3rd. 1) 2)
  3. The Nina maps posted above show something we should all know. The -AO/NAO will trump ENSO every time out. You could probably apply that map regardless of ENSO state and get the same above/below normal results based on the NAO/AO. The +PNA is a big factor too, the Pacific can run the show for good or ill for the East. The -NAO is virtually a winter unicorn lately but maybe with -qbo will help some with that.
  4. Looks like we get these few days below normal, bump up to AN for a few days then head cooler for the last week of the month and into early November. If we can pull a BN November that will bode well for winter for people who like cooler winters.
  5. Got down to 35 this morning for a bit of a frosty start after a cool day yesterday.
  6. It's going to go back to feeling like fall again next week, at least for a while. Probably see some 60s and low 40s in the area. Last Saturday night was as warm a night as we get in summer with the high dps and warm air pumping up from Nate. It was 79 at midnight with a dp in the low 70s. There should at least be dry air and upper 50s this weekend at night.
  7. Probably just the GFS being the GFS but it hints at some mountain top snow showers late in the run with highs in the 40s/50s in the lower elevations. October is normally our most extreme month temp wise. Can be very hot early month and very cold late month. It and April are generally the months where it is not uncommon to be in the mid 80s for days on end or it can snow during the month.
  8. Picked up 2.4 inches here. Long, steady soaking rain too. Not a ton of run off. We had some downed trees and power outages due to wind as well. My power was off for several hours last night. It was much needed.
  9. A few years ago I looked back over the last 100 years or so and found that a BN November was a very good indicator of a BN winter. Especially a BN Jan-Feb. Going by memory, and it may be a little faulty, but I believe it was close to 80 percent of years with a BN November produced a colder/snowy winter in the area. AN Novembers produced a similar rate of AN winters.
  10. I'm hoping for some rain in the short term, we're about to kick into burn season and while soil moisture will allow us to avoid the deep, hard to extinguish fires like last season, flash fires are almost as bad in this type weather. I'm pulling for Nate.
  11. Mt Agung which is close by is also getting very close to erupting. Mt. Agung last erupted in 1963. It caused a .5 C drop in global temperatures. Temps are effected more globally with further south volcanoes. Two factors on why Mt St Helens, which was a sizeable eruption, didn't effect climate more were that it was as far north as it was and that it blew out sideways instead of up.
  12. To me the weather drivers here in winter are the PDO/PNA/AO/NAO primarily. Then other factors like Nina/Nino. We've seen the northern Pacific conditions completely overwhelm the ENSO state in recent years both for good and bad. It even overwhelmed the +AO/NAO. These two haven't been particularly favorable in almost 10 years now but we've had several very good winters, driven by a favorable north Pacific. I do hope you are right about the QBO. I just watched a video and in the person who made it's mind, there just isn't enough correlation between QBO and any observed weather to make any definitive statement. They pointed out a general lack of analog years to draw any conclusions, as Jax mentioned earlier. They mentioned a couple of years where there were similar atmospheric/solar conditions and a negative QBO where winters were the exact opposite in the East with one being cold/snowy and the other being very mild.
  13. I was looking at the 50mb measure. It's vastly different for whatever reason.
  14. It's odd, the CPC site I got the QBO index from has completely different values than the ESRL side you provided. January 1996 is +2.52 on the CPC and -5 on the ESRL. Not sure what the deal is there.
  15. It seems like a -QBO may not be the best thing for us regarding winter. Some of the warmest/worst winters regarding snowfall we've had since 1979 featured the -QBO. 1985 looks like the outlier, as it was -8 during January of 85. Deeply negative QBO periods happened in the winter of 07-08, which was a blowtorch winter. It was almost -10 in Jan-March of 1990 and that was a torch. 2005-06 was an extremely mild winter with a very negative QBO. The average low in Crossville was above freezing for the entire month of January 2006. This with an average low of 23 for January in Crossville. 2012-2013 was a negative QBO winter. It was mild overall as well. The QBO was positive 1993-94 which was a cold/snowy winter. Positive during 95-96 which was extremely cold and snowy. Positive during 2009-10 which is one of the most consistently cold/snowy winters of my life. Positive during 10-11 which was also very cold/snowy. Positive during 13-14 which was frigid/snowy here. Positive during 15-16 which was mild but very snowy across the northern areas of the valley/SWVA and Southern Ky.