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About John1122

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    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. Trends have gotten worse for the event 48-60 hours from now. Another decent track but elevation snow system. SWVa might get an inch or two. Looking tough for the rest of us below 2500 feet. January is going to close out as one of the worst winter months in the entire history of the sub forum for those who like cold and snow. Who knew it could be that much worse than the putrid 2019.
  2. Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  3. Euro gives a few flakes with the mid week system, mainly in elevated areas. By D10 a storm cut the Apps and gives some snow the northern part of the western forum areas. Big East based NAO at day 10 with some minor Alaska and West coast ridging tries to come around day 9 that appears to be beaten back quickly by another low in the Alaska area. Hopefully the EPS carries into something favorable. An East based NAO with heights East of Greenland tend to promote cutters and miller Bs that bring snow to places like Indianapolis, St Louis, Columbus Ohio etc while not getting a lot done here.
  4. GFS is a little better, doesn't get it done for us but NW trend definitely on the precip shield. Still low level warm issues. Keep having these early spring type looks where even good tracks rain low and snow above 4000ft.
  5. Nope, no luck for the rest of us. NW areas and Western NC are the winners that run. Really strange, TBH, 850s are 0 or less into Georgia, the 540 line is south of Birmingham and Atlanta but surface temps are in the 40s overnight and most of us rain.
  6. West Tennessee gets a nice backside thumping there. Looks like we night horseshoe with snow in western NC and West Tennessee but rain mostly for the rest of us. Hope the backside works it's way across the state but looks like it might lift NE instead.
  7. Looks like the frozen line dips into the Northern Plateau by 60. 18z Nash to Knox was seeing snow. This run Bowling Green to Tazewell is more the area. Fine details but this is a border line cold event. It arriving overnight into very early morning is one thing in the favor of the areas from your Plateau west.
  8. Yep. Through 57 hrs the frozen line is a good 80 miles north of the 18z frozen line. Typical luck.
  9. NAM coming in stronger but warmer for the midweek system. Won't be surprised if it shows all rain south of Kentucky this time.
  10. Day 10 on the Euro, deep trough in the SW, eastern ridge. Mostly AN to well AN. No snow outside the NC high elevation border areas. Just can't seem to reel anything in at this point. Winter of 1993 was awful like this. A trace of snow all winter until February 25th-26th when we got 4 inches. Then of course the blizzard hit and made it one of the most memorable winters in history from the Plateau eastward. But most winters that go this poorly never recover in any significantly wintery way.
  11. GFS has lost its mind late run. Appears to have a major coastal low coming out of the gulf and a very strong cutter in Arkansas at the same time. Never even seen that from a model before, let alone reality.
  12. Played pretty well considering. Had Azabuike not been allowed to commit about 40 fouls we might have even won the game.
  13. Tennessee is giving is giving us the d9-11 -EPO look right now.
  14. If we don't actually start reeling something into the d7 or less range soon, just have to assume its another headfake. Meanwhile I'm forecast to get to 28 tonight. 31 I think Wednesday night and not be below freezing otherwise the rest of the week. My normals this time of year are 42-21. Those were old normals though. It's like the earth tilted and we all live 100-150 miles south of where we did a few years ago.
  15. Winters have become like this Kansas game. It goes okay early and you get excited. Then it just inevitably grinds you down.