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John1122

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About John1122

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCSV
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  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. Hit the upper 30s by 10:30, 37 right now. May make a run at freezing by morning. A frost is likely inbound regardless.
  2. It's been in the 40s all afternoon. It truly feels cold after it was so warm the prior 48 hours.
  3. While it didn't work in our favor after Nov 2019, a cool/cold November is still a good start on cold/wintry D-J-F years. So if I could choose, I'll always pick a cold November over a warm one. October has been pretty warm so far, I normally have a freeze this month but it looks like that isn't going to happen. Nothing below 37 here so far. The leaves did catch fire after last week's cold shot. They are really popping, especially maples and poplars. Hard woods are showing some color but it's still patchy.
  4. Third straight morning in the 30s with sunny afternoons has a lot of color popping out. We will probably peak between October 28th and November 3rd or so this year. A good 10 days later than last year.
  5. Looking back, last year my first frost was October 3rd, first freeze the 17th and my leaves were gone by Halloween.
  6. Ended up at 37 this morning. Should help get the leaves rolling faster.
  7. 39 out there with about 2 hours of cooling left to go. First 30s of fall season always gets me happy.
  8. Yes. Nina is tougher along the Apps, but 80 percent of the valley was wintry last year.
  9. The PDO and Nina seems to produce mixed results. It was negative this past winter and it was snowy/icy/cold for most of the valley. It was negative in 2010-11 and that was a very snow winter with BN Temps. It was also negative for the 2011-12 Nina and that one was very warm. So the -PDO seems to run the gamut on winter outcomes from cold and snowy to very mild.
  10. As long as it's not strong, we are in decent shape, especially further west you go. If you take out 2011-2012 which was just an epic warm year everywhere when the Nina acted opposite of normal, every where west of the Apps are normal to below normal for winter in moderate and weak Nina's. Strong and we are almost universally AN. This doesn't have last years either which was moderate and near or BN from the Plateau to Oklahoma, all the way to the Gulf.
  11. It won't be a strong Nina most likely. I doubt it's more than weak. A strong has never followed a moderate nina and a moderate only followed a moderate once ever.
  12. You are in a good spot in a Nina. It's not warm from the Plateau west and the further west the better. Mod/Weak Nina is probably BN on average for Northern Arkansas.
  13. I have basically no faith in seasonal models. A gulf of Alaska low would generally not be La Nina climo. I believe that normally features a high pressure just south of Alaska off western Canada. Low pressure out there generally is an El Nino feature.
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