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About John1122

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    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

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  1. I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast. It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM."
  2. MRX significantly reduced the chance of snow here. It went from 70 percent down to 50 percent Monday night. Mentions dry air above 700mb being a problem for most areas that aren't an Eastern Mountain area. For their mountain areas they say 1-2 inches from 2000-3500 and much more above 3500.
  3. All the models love the Eastern Rim/Western Edge of the Plateau. I expect OHX to issue a snow advisory for their Plateau counties. I believe we have a poster who lives in NW Cumberland. They may be the winners here outside the Smokies/Eastern upslope areas.
  4. MRX has me with 70 percent snow Monday night and a low of 24. So hopefully it can get sub freezing fast. Got a little colder than forecast last night, down to 31 vs 34 that was predicted. Not a huge thing but every hour the ground gets freezing air over it it helps a little.
  5. Everything is pretty consistent across modeling with this one now. I'd say the MRX map looks pretty good. Less than an inch below 3000 and 6+ at LeConte. For my area I'm going to go with 1/2-3/4ths inch on decks and car tops and a dusting on grassy areas as far as the ground goes depending on time of day.
  6. The 12z Euro Control dropped the hammer with that wave.
  7. 00z hi-res, the 3K NAM and RGEM looked better for more of us than the 12K NAM. The 3k is down right aggressive in some areas even outside of elevation. I assume it's trying to guess as mesoscale bands that drop heavier stuff.
  8. Elevation makes massive differences across the area. 2800 should see accumulation for sure. Even 2 or 3 hundred feet is night and day at times though. 3000 is a magic number there it seems because MRX uses it frequently. I know that above 3000 in my area sees a significant amount more than 2500. There are also places that are much better for upslope than others and those even vary based on the angle of the wind. Hopefully your cabin is located in a favorable spot.
  9. UKMet temperatures during that band Holston posted. It's easy to spot the Plateau/Mountains on it. Being 32 or below would aid immensely for any of us hoping for accumulating snow in this kind of warm ground set up.
  10. I got under one of those one night and got 6 inches of snow in 3 hours with a temp in the lower 20s.
  11. Middle Tennessee has looked better than most areas of the state that aren't mountainous throughout. You don't have to deal with any downsloping really like the eastern valley areas.
  12. What an odd run of the Euro. 138 there's a southern system running along the Gulf coast. The primary goes from the Texas coast to the Florida coast then seems to jump from Panama City to Arkansas where it sits for 18 hours pounding Oklahoma.
  13. Marginal differences towards the 72 timeframe vs 84 at 12z. Low is in western New York, 992 vs 990 at 12z. Overall snow showers across the eastern 2/3rds of the state. The low moves slower this run and the change to frozen happens later across our area. The low does a loop in New York this run instead of moving into SW Ontario like it did at 12z. This keeps the upslope more towards SW Virginia a little longer than 12z did. Looks like it's going to be Plateau and mountains getting 1+ inch accumulations with less in most lower elevations. Overall it backed off a little in both areas vs 12z.
  14. Through 60 it's weaker, more west and warmer vs 12z.
  15. Unfortunately by h54 it runs due north instead of more northeast like it did at 12z.