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About John1122

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'
  1. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Ober shut down for the season today. Not the great February season of years past that continued well into March in 2014, 2015, and 2016, but better than the total disaster of 2017 when there was basically no ski season and the aftermath of the fire.
  2. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I echo Stove, there are quite a few people who bring a specialty knowledge to the forum. I appreciate you all. This hasn't been the most engaging winter for the Eastern half of the region but it was pretty good for the Western areas and filled with a lot of potential since it was at least cold. This reflected in forum growth and forum views. I know many go into hibernation after winter. But I hope you keep coming back next fall/winter even if you don't stick around in the summer. Also, if you're reading this and don't post, give posting a try. I always like hearing from new people and new areas. Especially since our entire forum covers very diverse climate areas over a fairly small area. I find microclimates fascinating.
  3. The WATE guys did miss big time on snow totals. Thursday night, the day before the blizzard started, Hinkin said "you're hearing these wild snow totals thrown around, but folks, it's March and that's not happening.' He forecast 6 inches for the Valley areas and 12 inches for the mountains at that time. I actually had a bet with my uncle, who'd watched Hinkin and didn't believe we'd get more than 10 inches. This is one of my 3 or 4 most clear weather memories. I can still remember being outside around 2 pm Friday and it started snowing here. It was probably in the mid 30s at the time. I drove to town around 4 and it was snowing hard but the road and ground were still fairly warm so it wasn't sticking. I had ordered a pizza and they messed it up so I had to wait for another one. It was really coming down as I drove back home. The ground was starting to get white in town at around 1100-1200 feet. As I climbed towards the house, as is often the case the accumulation got thicker and thicker. I had 2 inches on the ground already when I arrived home. It was still raining over a good portion of the central valley through that evening per the Knoxville TV stations, there wasn't a drop of rain for the entire event here. It had snowed 5 inches by midnight at my house. But it wasn't snowing particularly hard at that point and I kept being worried that the forecast wasn't going to come to pass. I woke up at 8 am the next morning to howling winds and it looked like we were in a thick fog. It was 21 degrees, winds were around 35 mph with higher gusts. I found a wind sheltered area and took 3 measurements. There was as closely as I could figure, 11 inches of snow on the ground. It had snowed 6 more inches basically in the 8 hours since midnight. Between 8 and 11 am it snowed 11 more inches. The heaviest sustained snow I've ever seen. It snowed and blowed the rest of the afternoon but not as heavily as that 3 hour span. Oddly, later that night around 1 am after the snow had seemingly ended, we had a burst of heavy snow that just absolutely poured down for about 30 minutes and added 1 inch or so to my total. I assume it was flow related. I was well over 2 feet by the time it was over and my cousins 1000 feet above me were close to 3 feet. I had a 1977 F-150 with 33 inch tires. It snowed the bed of the truck completely full, which is 21 inches deep, and then it just blew the snow off that would have piled up over the bed. I drove it the next day and the front bumper of my truck was plowing snow. I am forever pissed at the local paper who reported that the area only received 12 inches of snow. They were never known for having the best reporters. They did mention that the higher mountain areas received 36 inches of snow. I still have that paper as well as one from Lake City who more accurately reported 18-24+ inch totals in the valley areas. The drifts were amazing, some were 15 feet deep and 6 foot drifts were common. There's a letter to the editor in one of them from a person who moved here from Ohio and talked about never seeing anything like this up there. Their power went out and they mentioned crossing HWY 63 in Eastern Campbell County in neck deep drifts because their neighbor came to check on them and then invited them to stay in their wood heated home until power was restored. Also a gesture she wasn't used to per her letter.
  4. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    We will see if the Atlantic can get anything done. I feel with the -PNA and the EPO going positive that we might have to work with Pacific air instead of Arctic air. I won't rule out by any means that we can see more snow. I just think any sustained Arctic cold is off the table. I've seen Atlantic blocking spoiled by the Pacific before in that regard. Late February into Mid March can be volatile for the entire forum regarding snow/cold. There are many examples of almost snowless winters seeing large snow dumps in that window. Nashville's largest snow ever came during a winter when .5 inches had fallen before March. Then they got 4 inches after a period of 70 degree weather on March 13th and 17 inches on March 17th. The rest of the season we're probably going to have to hope for something like that. A perfectly timed system that meets up with perfectly timed cold. A few years ago we just had cold city from February 20th til March 10th or so and we just sat and watched systems attack it. I don't see that happening this year but I truly hope I'm wrong. In the interim we will have to see if we can space the rain out enough to avoid major flooding. The ground is like a soaked sponge here and there's been a decided lack of sun even when it's not been raining. It's hardly shone for a week it seems like.
  5. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I hope I'm wrong, but I think barring some kind of ULL or very outside the climo norm events in March, winter is basically over as far as any sustained cold/snow goes. It may get colder than average at times but it will be so late in the year that colder than average will at best be marginal for snow in the region below 2000 feet or so. Just have to hope for a miracle event. I am slightly ahead of last year snowfall wise, but still low enough to be the 2nd lowest snow total winter in 80 years. Pretty crazy since late December and most of January were well below normal and we had a 2 week stretch of below freezing weather in the heart of winter. Completely different winter than last year but my area arrived at basically the same place snowfall wise. Got cold, couldn't buy moisture. Got moisture, couldn't buy cold. Life in the Tennessee Valley. Congratulations to those in the Western forum, as you guys are probably at or above normal for snowfall and got to see some nice events this year.
  6. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    A break in the rain finally. 5.1 inches fell here so far.
  7. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Yes, it actually floods the roadway in front of my house and washes out my driveway at the bottom of it. But the county road department made some repairs to the culvert and bridge the creek flows through and hopefully it won't escape it's banks this time.
  8. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Over 4 inches of rain here. Fairly wide spread reports of flooding and mudslides.
  9. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    From Friday Morning in NE Campbell Co at around 2400 feet.
  10. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Just saw a video of someone posted from home an hour ago and it was pouring down goosefeathers as they were driving.
  11. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    There was a burst of sleet that quickly went over to rain here in Hixon. I feel that back home may be getting wintry weather as is always the case when I'm here.
  12. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    For whatever reason the Euro for a few days had been showing rain over us on the ptype but still increasing snow depth on the snow map. But today at least it seems to be showing snow falling to cause the snow depth increase.
  13. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Oh, I have 0 confidence in it. Models can't get anything right this year at the surface. Hi-Res or not. Just flailing failure after flailing failure. But it shift back quite a bit south with it's frozen precip. Reallly lets parts of Eastern Kentucky have it, areas around Jackson get 3-5 inches. It had been rain into Ohio on there.
  14. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    The Euro is back on board for a front end thump this weekend. Looks like 2-3 inches for the Northern Plateau and Northeast Tennessee and points north.
  15. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    GEFS continues the big ridge in the west that turns the flow NW here, keeps the east below normal for the next 16 days. It's has been performing better than the Euro lately too. The Canadian Ens tries to pop the SE ridge on occasion, which hasn't worked all winter. But still generally keeps things below normal, especially after day 10. The AO is going negative as well. The NAO is positive, but it has been since November. It can help a lot regarding storm tracks, but it has snowed in areas that normally are desperate for the -NAO many times this year. Nor has the NAO effected the severity of the cold here. EPO is still expected to be negative over the new few weeks. We may not get snow, but I don't feel like we're done with cold. Last year winter was bad because it was a +EPO/-PNA combo. This year winter is cold because those two are opposite. I believe the NOAA forecast busted terribly for the DJF period. Cold NW and warm East. The North Pacific has ran the show again this winter to date.