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About Runman292

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    Knoxville, Tennessee

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  1. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    Moderate snow in South Knoxville.
  2. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Good afternoon, guys. How's everyone been doing? I hope we get a good snow here soon.
  3. MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system.
  4. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017

    Here's the latest Discussion from MRX: .LONG TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...A negative upper trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight and early Friday morning. A series of jet streaks exiting the upper trough will produce divergence aloft over the region late today through early Friday morning. These circulation around this jets will enhance the fronto-genetic forcing overnight. Models show the airmass becoming moderately unstable with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/Kg with Hail CAPEs of 150-300 J/kg. Shear/SR Helicity does become quite strong with favorable values for rotating updrafts with incoming storms. LCL heights lower overnight as well. Models show a 850mb jet of 40-50kts overnight. Given these parameters, isolated tornadoes are a concern with the main threat being damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail of 0.5 to 1 inch. SPC has placed essentially the entire area under a slight risk of severe thundestorms, even though the western/southern half of the area seems to have the greatest threat.
  5. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017

    Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the western half of the eastern valley until 11 PM EST.
  6. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017

    Sometimes, it just seems like when there's a system capable of producing severe storms to the west of the eastern valley, Gandolf is standing on the Cumberland Plateau and shouting "You shall not pass!!!" Jokes aside, it's intrigues me how the eastern valley sees very little widespread severe thunderstorms.
  7. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017

    A few areas around Knoxville saw Golfball size hail from a couple cells. There was a report of baseball size in Bradley county.
  8. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017

    MRX has issued a Special Weather Statement for the southern Plateau and valley (and oddly parts of the central valley including Knoxville). Cherokee-Clay-Morgan-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-NW Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Kingston, Lenoir City, Knoxville, Maryville, Cades Cove, Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur, Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Benton, and Ducktown 1143 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 /1043 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ ...Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina for late this Afternoon and early Evening... An area of thunderstorms will develop across middle Tennessee this afternoon then move east southeast into the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee between 4 and 6 pm ET. This area of storms will continue to move east into southwest North Carolina by 7 pm. Areas south of interstate 40 have the great threat of severe storms today. The main concern from these storms will be large hail up to Golfball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest updates on this situation.
  9. Winter 2017's Last Gasp

    MRX has downgraded the winter storm watch in the mountains to an advisory, and issued advisories in the counties south of Knox County.
  10. Winter 2017's Last Gasp

    I'm interested in seeing if the 12z Euro holds serve from last night's run, or starts trending back to a drier solution.
  11. Winter 2017's Last Gasp

    MRX has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains. It sounds like they'll be going the advisory route everywhere else, as they are thinking 1-3 inches outside of the mountains.
  12. Winter 2017's Last Gasp

    Here's an interesting graphic from MRX:
  13. Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday 3/1

    I've noticed that too, but you have to watch out for the storms to strengthen up again once it reaches the valley.
  14. Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday 3/1

    MRX just posted the following graphic. The 4th bullet point is an eyebrow raiser.
  15. Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday 3/1

    Here's the latest discussion from MRX: .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Biggest weather event of concern will be the chance for severe weather as a trough moves across the northern plains and a surface low moves through the Great Lakes Region with it, and this system drags a cold front through our area on Wednesday. We could have some ongoing convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which could help stabilize the atmosphere and alter the chances for severe weather. Soundings suggest that any ongoing convection would be pretty weak and could wain in the overnight hours as dry air in the mid levels hinders convection, and we could get some cloud clearing during the day. If this hindrance does occur then the atmosphere should be primed for much stronger storms as we roll into Wednesday and the front moves closer to our area. Best timing for the strongest storms still seems to be the afternoon hours till a bit after sunset. During this time mid level jet will put us in the favored region for some upper level support and the low level jet will be cranking from early in the morning until the front moves through. Low level jet speeds of 50-60+ knots will help create strong shear as well as strong pre-frontal winds on Wednesday. Forecast models indicate the possibility of 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE depending on the model and location in our forecast area. This combined with strong 0-1km and 0-6km shear will lead to a good possibility to see damaging winds from a line of severe thunderstorms. In addition with this set up we could also see large hail and a few tornadoes as well.