Runman292

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About Runman292

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    La Follette, Tennessee

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  1. Interesting that they highlighted Southeast TN in the MD, but didnt include that area in the watch.
  2. Mesoscale Discussion 0276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Areas affected...Much of middle and eastern Tennessee into parts of southeastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271241Z - 271445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms will continue spreading across the Tennessee Valley toward the Cumberland Plateau through 11 AM to Noon EDT, with some potential to organize further and begin producing strong to perhaps occasionally severe wind gusts. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Consolidation and upscale growth of vigorous thunderstorm development continues across parts of the Mid South into Tennessee Valley region. This is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath a zone of enhanced divergence aloft, which is forecast to continue spreading across the Tennessee Valley into the Cumberland Plateau through 15-16Z. This convection includes at least one area of increasing organization, with a possible evolving broad mesoscale cyclonic circulation near Nashville. This still appears rooted above at least a shallow near-surface, potentially cool/stable layer, but mid 60s+ F surface dew points have been surging toward the southern Tennessee state border area the past few hours. Although cloud cover appears likely to slow boundary-layer insolation ahead of activity, it is possible that thermal advection and moistening could contribute to increasing boundary-layer instability as far north as the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Tennessee within the next few hours. If this occurs, a corridor with potential for strong to severe wind gusts could begin to develop by mid to late morning, in the presence of sheared, 30-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer.
  3. Mesoscale Discussion 0260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...northern GA...eastern TN...far western NC...extreme upstate SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252131Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A risk for severe thunderstorms, including the threat for a couple of tornadoes, will likely develop over the next several hours across northern GA and eastern TN. The risk will eventually spread east into parts of the far western Carolinas later this evening. The timing of an eventual watch issuance is a bit uncertain. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broad rain shield across the southern Appalachians as of 2130 UTC. A supercell over northwestern GA, on the southern flank of the rain shield, will continue to move east-northeast over northern GA the early evening hours. The airmass across the southern Appalachians is currently rain-cooled/stable but a strong moisture flux/destabilization will likely occur during the evening hours. The richer low-level moisture will likely reside across northern GA where lower 60s F dewpoints are currently observed/expected this evening. In addition to hail/wind risks with a supercell threat gradually spreading northeastward into the area, a tornado or two is possible this evening/tonight. For parts of southeast/eastern TN, the severe threat will likely depend on storm development from the west/southwest eventually moving into the region later this evening. The expected timing of the risk will likely be delayed but begin in a few hours.
  4. The sun is out in Oak Ridge.
  5. It doesn't look like the rain will be changing back over to snow here in Oak Ridge. Good luck to everyone else. I'm going to sleep.
  6. Had a quick dusting in Oak Ridge, but it's rain and 33° now. It's likely over for me.
  7. I recently sent a message to MRX on facebook asking about my neck of the woods (Oak Ridge). Here were their thoughts as of 3:30: It looks like you may see some mixed precipitation overnight which could be mainly snow at least briefly. Could be an inch or two of snow for Oak Ridge, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty and it could end up being less.
  8. Dusting in Oak Ridge. I'm ready for a really good snow.
  9. Looks like another L as far as snowfall accumulations for Oak Ridge. I wish everyone else the best of luck.
  10. In Oak Ridge, it went from snow to snow/sleet to sleet to rain/sleet and now it's just a drizzle.
  11. Not sure if I was supposed to expect any snow on the ground here, but Oak Ridge has no snow. Just light flurries.
  12. I'm in Oak Ridge, and I can confirm that temperature. It's definitely cooler than what was forecasted. I saw a little over an inch for the Christmas Eve Storm. I'm hoping that I'll see more than that this go around.