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BlunderStorm

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About BlunderStorm

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFZ
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Honaker, VA 2100 ft.
  • Interests
    Weather, Hiking, History, Gaming, Outer space, Procrastinating...etc.

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  1. BlunderStorm

    Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it.
  2. BlunderStorm

    Fall Banter 2018

    https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=287&ui_set=0 This is all I could find with a brief google search. It certainly isn't a good replacement for NOHRSC, I can say that much... Thankfully the National Snow Analyses page still works.
  3. BlunderStorm

    Fall Banter 2018

    When it comes down to NW flow latitude certainly matters but just as you all do I live in the valley as well and not on a northwest facing slope either. If I see a flurry or two perhaps Daniel, Kentucky, John and maybe just maybe the folks in the Tri-Cities will. My fingers are crossed for a repeat of October 29 last year as slim as that chance may be.
  4. BlunderStorm

    Fall Banter 2018

    Hmm... no probably not... but still...
  5. BlunderStorm

    Fall Observations 2018

    It reached 43 this morning a little warmer than I expected thanks to the same cloud cover windspeed mentioned but I'm not complaining. It's looking like it may not even reach 60!
  6. BlunderStorm

    Fall Observations 2018

    Thursday, October 11, the day summer 2018 truly ended. Fall has at last finally arrived fashionably late and well received. Anyway, it is currently 52F and falling. To state the obvious I'm looking forward to some seasonable to below average temps in the coming weeks and I'm sure you guys are too.
  7. BlunderStorm

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Don't mind me, I'm just here to spectate the wind intensity and damage arguments. I wonder how many additional pages to this thread will be created from this.
  8. BlunderStorm

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Just imagine if he were still over open ocean... If Michael wasn't a category 5 he got really darn close.
  9. BlunderStorm

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Time wise probably around 2 pm CT/ 3 pm ET.
  10. BlunderStorm

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Ahh, what the heck why not.
  11. BlunderStorm

    Fall Banter 2018

    It would be ironic if neither team won and they simply tied.
  12. BlunderStorm

    Tropical Storm Kirk (again)

    I'm not sure if the convection is around the center of low pressure but there seems to be some impressive -80C cloud tops showing up on Goes 16 IR from the remnants of Kirk. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=ir
  13. BlunderStorm

    Tropical Storm Kirk (again)

    Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development.
  14. BlunderStorm

    Tropical Storm Kirk (again)

    Well it's certainly good to be back! Anyway, it would seem we have some more activity in the tropics to monitor starting with Kirk. 310 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center. Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 8.3N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
  15. BlunderStorm

    Fall Banter 2018

    FINALLY WE'RE BACK!
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