BlunderStorm

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=287&ui_set=0 This is all I could find with a brief google search. It certainly isn't a good replacement for NOHRSC, I can say that much... Thankfully the National Snow Analyses page still works.

When it comes down to NW flow latitude certainly matters but just as you all do I live in the valley as well and not on a northwest facing slope either. If I see a flurry or two perhaps Daniel, Kentucky, John and maybe just maybe the folks in the Tri-Cities will. My fingers are crossed for a repeat of October 29 last year as slim as that chance may be.

Hmm... no probably not... but still...

It reached 43 this morning a little warmer than I expected thanks to the same cloud cover windspeed mentioned but I'm not complaining. It's looking like it may not even reach 60!

Thursday, October 11, the day summer 2018 truly ended. Fall has at last finally arrived fashionably late and well received. Anyway, it is currently 52F and falling. To state the obvious I'm looking forward to some seasonable to below average temps in the coming weeks and I'm sure you guys are too.

Don't mind me, I'm just here to spectate the wind intensity and damage arguments. I wonder how many additional pages to this thread will be created from this.

Just imagine if he were still over open ocean... If Michael wasn't a category 5 he got really darn close.

Time wise probably around 2 pm CT/ 3 pm ET.

Ahh, what the heck why not.

It would be ironic if neither team won and they simply tied.

I'm not sure if the convection is around the center of low pressure but there seems to be some impressive -80C cloud tops showing up on Goes 16 IR from the remnants of Kirk. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=ir

Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development.

Well it's certainly good to be back! Anyway, it would seem we have some more activity in the tropics to monitor starting with Kirk. 310 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center. Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 8.3N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

FINALLY WE'RE BACK!