BlunderStorm

"I didn't hear no bell!"

You're not alone. When the dry slot hit temps went from 26 to 38 and have only been dropping in the past couple hours. Only the back end can save us from a complete bust. As of now the pivot is in full gear. Here's hoping...

25 and heavy snow and sleet. Maybe the coldest I remember sleet falling. The main road is white. About 1/3 an inch of frozen stuff on the ground.

About 1/10th an inch of sleet has accumulated. Temperatures as of 8:30 stand at 27 and remain stable. Up until now winds were steadily increasing but I think this trend may be thankfully ending. I think I'll take the dry slot over an ice skating rink.

Precip rate has lowered and the sleet is beginning to more closely resemble graupel (sorta). Overall it looks like Clinch mountain is up to its old downslope tricks for my microclimate. The 850 level must be a mess. Lol, I'll never forget how much of a bust I got from a nearly identical setup on radar back in December 2018. I was so pissed I screenshot an Intellicast radar frame and made this little piece of "art" in MS paint. In retrospect not my finest moment. This time it was to be expected. Anyway, how are things goin on the plateau and west is the snow holding?

27.6 and within the last 10 minutes precip finally started reaching the ground. Currently 100% Sleet. Curious how long this set-up holds.

Hours outta play up yonder but 32/27. Not hourglass shape but I'll take it with a smile. The real battle is above our heads.

@BuCoVaWx ???

Neat! Just thought I would add my own pressure reading.

Anyone know if those super early radar returns south of Crossville are the real deal? On another note looks like the low is about 50 miles due east of Texarkana as of now.

SWVA folks might be able to hold on to the upper levels but I doubt it with current guidance especially south of the state line. Our best chance is on the back end with the TROWAL. Even then it's a pyrrhic victory for the far east of the sub forum leaving the plateau and west outta the picture. As it stands nothing in the tri-cities looks right. If I get 2" up my way I'm happy and if I get 4+ I'm ecstatic.

The "RDPS" on Pivotal is the RGEM. I didn't know for a long while too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011418&fh=78&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

18z NAM 3km at 48 hours... How on Earth you screw up the upper air that much I don't know.

The extreme E to W downslope over the spine of the Apps with the latest run of the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS reminds me of the Jan 2016 Blizzard. Though in the case of that the low transitioned to the coast by Charleston rather than running up to swva then shifting to the Outer banks.

Oof. but hey, the mid-state really cashes in.