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Found 26 results

  1. Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
  2. Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.
  3. Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting. Now cast situation here. Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen. Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville.
  4. Jan 8th Ice/Mix/Rain Event

    All the globals have some precip in the area with borderline surface temps. Let's work our way towards unnecessarily closed schools and photogenic tree branches.
  5. I figure we could use a separate thread to discuss this, since it doesn’t belong in the 1/3 thread and doesn’t belong in the banter thread. Some areas of central AL/GA and maybe S SC could get in on some light wintry precip tonight. It shouldn’t be a big deal, but these areas don’t get wintry precip everyday, either, so it’s something to watch.
  6. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  7. Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
  8. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Since we've have had our first freeze of the season, I figured I would start a winter banter thread. Take anything you see and read in this thread with a giant grain of salt. Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.
  9. Figured we might as well get this one going. The Euro has this system effecting the area in less than 5 days. GFS day 5-6. We've all seen the model runs, some version of this event has been showing up for a week or so now, but as is typical with Southern systems the models are all over the place from run to run. Today they've generally came into agreement that there will be a system that will effect at least some of the region. Up in the air as to which parts. Could be winter as far south as the 1-20 corridor, could be Northern TN/Southern Ky/SWVA and everyone in between. There is even a minor system that ushers in cold just before this one that might provide some minor accumulations. This time frame should be the event to watch but that too is up in the air still due to massive model madness. Best case for the region comes from quite a number of GFES ens members. Most of them show a wide variety of systems that hit in favorable ways for our region. Thus the beautiful means map that gives solid averages to about as wide a swath of our area as you'll ever see. That just shows how many of us are in the game at this point. Worst case is probably the 00z GFS op. It's a miller b type which means warming for most of the valley region. Maybe not all, it even has a front side thump. Some of us picked up a nice event out in front of a rainer last year. Next is the GGEM which was a little too far south but still gave the area a decent 1-3 inch average. I've not seen a 6 hour breakdown on the Euro, but I know the following panel is a look I'd take all day long in winter.
  10. January 2017 Obs

    46 F at 10:00 PM at RDU. No snow yet.
  11. The models keep showing this as a possible threat. Jeff mentions his reasoning for the ice potential in the winter pattern thread. A very strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday causing crashing temps. Most models agree there will be moisture of some amount behind the front. There could also be freezing issues due to the heavy amounts of water left by the rain. In addition to the totals of ice below. Models also show some degree of sleet or snow. I believe the Euro showed an inch or so in a good portion of the area. The NAM shows some snow in parts of East Tennessee. The GFS had a couple of runs showing it too. I believe some of their maps may be incorporating sleet into their snow total maps. The worst case scenario is the Canadian, crippling ice storm for a good portion of the Valley on the 12z run. The Canadian was the first to show this possibility and hasn't wavered from it for days on end. The GFS is much more localized with freezing rain totals. The NAM splits the difference.
  12. Please use this thread for obs for the upcoming storm....Thanks!
  13. Good luck. 1234 has an event thread for the Weds 1-3" event. This thread will be for the potential EC storm on Thursday and Friday and future short range events....unless the EC storm dumps on the TN Valley and then I will retag this thread just for that event alone for future reference.
  14. Observation thread for tonight thru Wednesday event, Currently 17.4°F here, Breezy under mostly sunny skies
  15. Winter 2015-16

    All continues to be quiet on the western front.....as expected so far...Good luck to everyone this winter!
  16. It's go time. Fire away and enjoy, everyone.
  17. 26/M7 with high clouds approaching... EDIT: 24/M7 as of 7 PM.
  18. It's back, the epic medium/long range winter discussion thread. This winter has nearly unanimously been touted as one to remember. Everyone in the know, our favorite and not so favorite forecasters all seem to see signs that point to a blockbuster winter. Let's hope it delivers as advertised. Else some folks have some 'splainin to do. Here is to an epic winter that we will all remember for decades to come!!! Courtesy of Brett Anderson here is his interpretation of the Euro weeklies for the first week of December : (Looks like an El Nino signature to me) From the usually conservative and usually playing catchup CPC :
  19. I thought this might be a good thread while we wait on Old Man Winter to unleash his hounds. Links and personal accounts welcome. I am putting this up. I'll work in the evening over the weekend to add a few of my own personal favorites. The ideas here is to get stories from all of the state.
  20. DISCUSS. THE GRAPHICS WILL UPDATE EVERYDAY. IF ANYONE WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THE GRAPHICS IN THIS THREAD THAT UPDATE FREQUENTLY PLEASE DO SO.
  21. Icy trash can

    From the album Jan 25 Icy Weather

  22. Driveway Ice

    From the album Jan 25 Icy Weather

  23. Car Ice

    From the album Jan 25 Icy Weather

  24. Car Ice/Sleet

    From the album Jan 25 Icy Weather

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