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Hi. 12z/8 modeling still quite variable, some suggesting heavy rainfall, especially LI-CT. As of the 2PM Wednesday NHC TWO---70% chance of developing into a tropical system. Usually, for heavy rain, and tracking a tropical system. I try to follow the 850MB vort. East-southeasterly Inflow suggests a period (duration unknown) of heavy rain much of the NYC forum sometime Friday or Friday night-Saturday morning in PWAT greater than 2.25". I tend to focus on heavy rain being very close to the 850 vort center. May see brief gusts near 35 kt for a short time in squalls near the center NJ, LI coasts. I don't think tidal flooding is major concern, and it will have to be perfect timing with the high tide cycle since we're descending into the lower part of the tide cycles. We may not see much lightning with this, except in initial intensification Thursday or Friday. Others should comment and adjust the thinking and keep track of everything. Not sure who moves this thread to Tropical "if "it becomes named FAY? Thanks for all!
Saw some folks asking for a single thread for Florence. Figured I’d go ahead and make it since I had time on my lunch break. Thanks to all who have been posting in the winter thread, it’s been a great disco the last few days.