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The GFS joined the Euro with some potential snowy hi-jinks to welcome met spring. As was noted, virtually all decent March/April snows over the last 50 years featured a cooperative or at least non-hostile pacific and MJO in Phase 2/3. It looks like we may be hanging out in 2 around the time the snowfall is showing up on the models.

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10th, as Roger unearthed records of the first one, which occurred during the 2014-15 snow season, and was won by @nw baltimore wx. So he has been added below to the list of previous winners, including last year's winner @Kmlwx Second, those who participated last year will recollect the consensus that a Strong El Nino was going to end the Mid-Atlantic snow drought, but that did not happen. So, it appears that snow lovers in our region will have to put their faith in a Weak La Nina this snow season. That may not sound too promising, but perhaps the consensus will be wrong again. Also, I note that we are nearing a solar maximum, which just maybe will somehow, some way upset the apple cart and bring ample snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic. In any event, the focus of this contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2024-25 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International Airport (RIC). In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened 6 years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Sunday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone 2015-16: @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone 2016-17: @StormpcStormpchadowzone 2017-18: @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx 2023-24: @Kmlwx Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Good luck everyone!

Thread started due to 3 successive cycles of the EPS/GEFS/CMCE showing 1+" in 24 hours and amounts increasing through the most recent 00z/14 cycle. Will this be relatively benign snowfall only raising our monthly total close to normal, or could it be our first 6+ Central Park event since late Jan 2022? Whatever happens, it looks like powder (presuming it snows an inch or more in CP), with some gusty north-northeast winds. Graphics: 00z/14 cycle WPC D7 and GEFS,CMCDE, EPS 24 hour (10 to 1 ratio) amounts with various ending times late Thu the 20th or early Friday the 21st. Reminder: These ensemble snowfall axis can be in error by over 100 miles on a D6-7 forecast so the modeling provided is not a lock where currently placed. 7PM 2/17/25: adjusted headline to narrow the timing goal post of what has become a much more uncertain event since initially proposed...even with the option of no snow. This despite a strong short wave passage Thursday evening. The GEFS still closes a low through PA while the EPS has weakened to an open - less ominous progressive short wave trough with no significant 850 MB onshore circulation. The 15z/17 SREF, 18z/17 NAM and 12z/17 JMA are the only models with any significant hope for snow as the globals have largely faded southeast since thread inception. The apparently lagged average BOM and 12z/17 WPC still maintain an opportunity for a period of light snow (1/2-4" nw to se on the BOM).

I figured it was time to start the next monthly winter thread. Let the speculation/discussion begin.

This thread should essentially close out the multi event thread, transferring event comments and serving to report snow/ice obs later today-tonight, rainfall totals sometime Sunday, followed by wind gust reports 50MPH or greater including damaging wind late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. One graphic added is the ECMWF EPS max wind gust graphic 1PM Sunday-!PM Monday... highest gusts showing up on the ridges and mainly late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. Sometimes this graphic can be too strong with wind gusts 5 to 10 MPH less than modeled... still even if its a little less, the strong wind is probably gong to impact some of us late Sunday-Monday morning. The hope for our I84 friends is that the east facing slopes of the hills above 1000 feet will see temps rise above freezing tomorrow morning to melt snow and ice off the branches (watch for falling frozen debris) or widespread power outages would develop, especially Catskills-Litchfield Hills and possibly the northern Poconos. As it stands, some power outages expected here and there and probably a good idea to shelter everything that is vulnerable and preventable from some damage. AI ECMWF 2m 6 hr temps have risen a bit cyclically through the 00z/15 cycle but still looks problematic whether it rises above freezing north of I94 Sunday. No matter, that region along and N of I84 should try to safely remove snow and ice early Sunday afternoon from travel ways, or it will probably freeze solid Sunday evening and remain through the work week.

Best chance for a total of 6+" inland with NYC-LI-coasts? Ensembles are added. All graphics should self identify. Ensemble snowfall is the more conservative positive snow depth change and prefer to minimize overhyping despite a decent looking pattern. It and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall does include some snow from this weekend, but the bulk is with in the Feb 11-15 period. One thing I dont like about the BOM is that it has averaged snowfall across all of LI instead of adjusted toward the ensembles. The BOM may be right if two of these decent events are all snow for LI. Included also is the Blend of Models somewhat realistic expectation of a little freezing rain, probably better than the EPS. The WPC 6-7 outlooks are attached and finally the conservative WSSI-P which implies an I95 modest snowstorm (low probs moderate in this example for D6) Generally cold high pressure should extend from the Canadian Rockies across southern Canada in this period with an average 150KT 200MB jet core persistently centered near Boston. That places the NYC subforum on the edge of the RRQ of the upper level jet, rather close to the core, so that in my opinion, some southward suppression might occur in the surface pattern during this time frame or the NAEFS (multi ensemble inclusive of the CMCE-GEFS) might change as the models change over the next week. Ensemble guidance basically is producing 1+" of qpf for our area in this time frame. All yours! 713P/6

Most of the snow tonight. Areas of light snow, flurries or possibly freezing drizzle may linger after sunrise Wednesday. NWS 08z/11 ensemble probs for 1 and 4" attached. At 734AM I added what I call the slippery factor--WSSI-P, run off 05z data... the red is 60% or greater chance of MINOR impacts overnight. I sort of like this product. Edited previously intended headline start time at 327P/11 At 410AM have extended the headline into the second event since this reduces thread bounce, AND, I think that "parts" of our NYC subforum including LI, NJ, PA will see an additional few tenths of an inch of snow today with ice pellet very minor amounts this evening, and of course the obligatory icing well inland overnight. Don't be surprised at a little drizzle-freezing drizzle for LI and the NJ coast today. The additional snow may not stick very well during the daylight hours as temps rise. Still suggest cleaning the snowboard AT MOST once every 6 hours and see what you get. I hope we get some decent rainfall overnight. Thank you for all your shares. I am considering starting the 19th-20th snow storm-event late this morning.

Discuss the possibilities of little more snow-sleet for NYC-LI. Please check back on the 7th for the review of the attached guidance, maybe used as a learning tool. Ensembles temporarily trended a little colder so that NYC CP-parts of LI may receive 1/2-1.5" of snow sleet to start before a change to rain. Most of the precipitation looks to occur 6PM Wed-Noon Thursday, starting as snow or sleet then changing to rain by sunrise Thursday NYC-LI, but freezing rain-sleet interior, northwest of I95. That freezing rain sleet may linger into midday over parts of nw NJ/interior se NYS, interior CT and the Poconos where mixing warmer air to the surface should be minimal until sometime Thursday night (baggy flow Thursday morning). Time of transition from snow-sleet to rain-ice will determine amounts of snow/sleet. This event may impact (slow travel-transportation delays) during the Wednesday evening commute depending on the start time, and "should" leave at least delays and/or widespread cancellations for the interior early Thursday. Total melted qpf should range between 0.3-0.8".. with the GEFS the least. QPF factors into the resultant amount of the various wintry elements. Ensembles already included are recently colder prob of >1" snowfall (includes sleet) from the EPS, CMCE, GEFS. the EPS 06z/6 2m temps, the ensemble chance of >0.10 freezing rain qpf from both the 12z and 18z cycles. Those probs have been consistently very high for the past several days---BUT caution on interpreting .10 qpf as .10 glaze. It could be significantly less depending on temp/rates of fall, drop size. I also added the EPS raw qpf interpreted as freezing rain. Ensembles show a primary low moving up into the eastern Great Lakes-upstate NY by dawn Thursday with a warm frontal wave moving northeast off the NJ coast, possibly maintaining itself through forenoon Thursday passing e of LI, then merging with the primary low in eastern Canada Thursday night and returning subfreezing temps to the area by daybreak Friday. The amount of subfreezing cold that returns in the wake of the departing eastern Canada low on Friday, will help determine what happens here next weekend (Feb 8-9). If somehow the primary near the eastern Great Lakes is dominant and there is no warm frontal wave of low pressure coming up the NJ coast, then snow-sleet amounts would be less. Final 757P/2. 702 PM Tue 2/4: headline delayed the start time about 12 hours to midnight Wed night. Bulk of the wintry mix probably occurs in a 6 hour window roughly 4AM-10AM. All of the NYC subforum and surrounding areas near and inland from I95 are covered by a winter wx advisory issued at 330PM Tuesday. Several hours of slippery conditions in snow ice are also expected in NYC and Long Island near dawn-sunrise Thursday before a change to rain. The delay was caused by the narrow snow streak in se PA-MD-DE Wednesday morning not advancing northeastward until Wednesday night.

This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance. QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence. It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. Ensembles include the midnight 2/3 WPC D6 outlook confidence of >1/4" melted water equivalent snow sleet. (blue is greater than 50%, pretty good for D6. Other ensembles 24 hr snowfall (10 to 1 ratio), an ensemble that only shows positive snow depth change, and an ensemble probability of >0.10 qpf that is ice. This usually shrinks a bit as we draw closer to T0. 752A Mon 2/3/25

While most events are shaky on snowfall for LI due to thermal profiles, there should be a pool of subfreezing air covering the interior northeast during this event, available for making a messy winter storm, even down into NYC (NOT a KU). The remnants of this mornings CA 5H closed low will weaken as it heads eastward into the confluence zone over the mid and North Atlantic states this coming weekend. The cold boundary layer airmass that arrives Thursday the 30th after passage of an Alberta clipper off the Maine coast, should be available to interact with the Gulf moisture and lift generated moisture caused by the thickness overrunning ahead of the weakening upper low. Modeling is implying a secondary CFP Friday evening that will allow that BL cold in NYS-New England to be nearby. Precipitation type will be problematic due to the thermal profiles but the attached ensemble guidance suggests that this system is of trackable interest for our NYC subforum -both for travel into the interior where impact will be greater, and maybe witnessing some snow accumulation in NYC-though melting is anticipated on LI at times. Can our NYC 24-25 winter snowfall increase an inch or 2" next weekend (corrected my prior CP snowfall error). Ensembles should be self explanatory. I did add the EPS probability of >0.10 freezing rain Headline change below at 730AM Wed 1/29 for failed 7 day lead time on wintry accums NYC-LI. Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact. Events accelerated 18 hours and warmer-further north than modeling posted below in this thread indicated. Wrap up hat happened will post Monday Feb 3. P5 shows the NAEFS speed change. Self rated C-performance (see p 15 results against the ensembles posted here). Back end snow event entire subforum salvaged a terrible start. Max axis was significantly further north than ensembled. We had the Fri morning ice delays e PA/NJ/se NYS (24 hrs earlier than anticipated in this thread, but nothing else til the Sunday evening climatologically normal 1-3" snow event.

A chilly and windy day to start the year following rain and thunderstorms the prior day.

Winter discussion/outlook for January 2025.

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened. Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

Modeling for the past several days suggests one or possibly two hazard events for a large portions of the NYC subforum, maybe excluding e LI? Headline has a large 4 day period for possibilities and cant be sure of anything except that precipitation will occur. Fast flow-thread the needle timing in the climatologically coldest time of the year with cold air nearby to draw into whatever low pressure systems approach. Hopefully this will not be 30+ pages of less than normal snowfall in CP. Daily CP norms (averaged out) are 0.3"/day. Am suggesting CP has a chance to stick 1-2" sometime in this period as modeling proposes 1/4-3/4" qpf in this time frame with temps at times below freezing. Ensemble temps tend to favor coldest temps in this thread periodJan 21-22. Most favored area for snow and ice continues as usual inland from I95, especially the I84 corridor (our nw-ne suburbs). Not looking like a major storm as of this 1/11 starter thread but annoying minor to possibly moderate impact 1-6" amounts of snow and a period of icing, especially interior just west of I95 through the I84 corridor Monday-Tuesday the 20th-21st. Another shot of reinforcing wind driven cold should follow around the 22nd? ICE: added EPS ice QPF here with several 12z/00z cycles of the EPS are offering glaze in the interior even near NYC which subdues the EPS expected snowfall. Ignore the NC ice which occurred earlier today.... and the qpf amounts need to are shaved by maybe 70% for reasonable glaze thickness. Am aware its fast flow and the lack of blocking could result in a failed thread but so far there is chatter and thought it good to pull the chatter off the January thread into one more focused thread. More snow opportunities Jan 25th onward as already suggested in the Jan thread. Added ensemble more conservative snow depth change for back checks on 1/22 to see how much this thread failed. We have to remember that the max snow axis error on multi ensemble agreed max qpf and snowfall can be in error by maybe 200 miles at Day 10. Graphics cleaned up at 735A/11. Updated thread title 1/16 349PM. Discussion-OBS minor-mdt mainly 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 5PM. Headline update at 504AM Friday: Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

As of 730 PM Monday Dec 30, ensembles have faded a bit the past day or two of model cycles. Snow event (minor) still could occur but suppression mostly south of us or delay til around the 8th. Snow may come in pieces Monday Jan 6-early 9th. Slower seems more likely for our area around the 8th when more longitudinal 5H troughing approaches from the Great Lakes as per the NAEFS which has considerable Canadian model influence. An important feature may be the apparently big short wave diving southeast from western Hud Bay around the 7th and how much backing of the flow will occur ahead of it when it is modeled into the upper Great Lakes by the 8th. Added ensembles (EPS and GEFS) for Monday the 6th--chance of 1" on the Canadian GEPS even less. Also the NWS D7 LOW chance for more than 1/4" of qpf which leads into the 6th. The CPC 3PM/30 probabilistic hazard outlook points out a better chance 7th onward. Hopefully modeling will become more favorable for snowfall. This post is an attempt to grab the first possible snow of January 2025 in NYC but is issued with considerable uncertainty - less than usual confidence and only for the period of Jan 6-12z/9. IF snow does occur (more than a Trace), then this thread can serve as the observations. The tags have ice pellets added, in case Great Lakes 5h troughing around the 8th forces mid level above freezing temps into our area with one possible low center into the Great Lakes. 720A/4 edited the headline to limit event to the 6th and dropped the ice pellet tag. The event has at least held onto the 6h for timing since the initial Dec 30 post, but the max axis in PA-NJ has shifted south about 150 miles since the post started 6 days ago. That is worthy of keeping in mind when posting threads 6 days in advance... limits confidence of occurrence. A positive note the accuracy of the D7 WPC chance of 1/4" frozen in the Ohio Valley!

Welcome to Meteorological winter! A nice wintery start!

Let the speculation begin!

A burst of snow Tuesday morning will refresh area snow cover, helping many of us to a white Christmas (more than 1/2" of snow on the ground at 7AM Wednesday). There's a separate thread for the 7A Wed 12/25 snow depth. Snowfall may be impressive for short time, coating all untreated surfaces with slippery broom able fluff.

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough. While too far offshore for a 4+" event, the 850 MB weak warm advection, 850MB vorticity from s central NYS sewd to NNJ and under running boundary layer northerly flow is going to produce a little bit of snow. For CP, think it needs to measure after sundown Fri. Outskirts of NYC from NNJ-se NYS-sw CT across LI should see 1/4" to maybe as much as 2", with potential for 3" near the NYS-PA nw NJ border. 4AM NWS has not posted any snowfall for NYC, so the probability (attached) for 0.1" in CP is very low (26%). Added 08z WSSI-P graphic and the NWS 08z/18 Blend of Models. If the system ends up weaker and not sharpening, then this modeled event fritters (850 vort trough just becomes general northerly CAA flow instead of what is modeled now). Should the miD level trough sharpen a bit more then that boosts confidence for NYC metro spirits brightened by snow on the ground Saturday morning. If PHL measures, that would be their first of the year. BOS already has measured. Reserving comment for Christmas possibilities to the general Dec thread for now, will we get through 12z Sat. Click graphics for clarity.805A Added OBS to the title at 748A/20 and one updated prob graphic for NYC CP

Well, we are just twelve weeks out from December, so I thought I would start a spec thread... I actually like these ideas in the article below: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-first-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ I tend to think that our best shots at winter will be late November to late December, and then it gets warm and maybe stays warm. That said, as others have noted in the main discussion thread for fall, the strength of this La Nina is important. The IO is important. The PDO is important. The MJO is very important. PDO -> The September Cansips has the PDO staying solidly negative for the winter, and not really even coming up for air at that. MJO -> This will tend to favor warm phases as phase 8 will be cooler than normal and that limits convection there. IO -> Off the coast of Eastern Africa, there is warm water depicted. That would favor phases 1-2 of the MJO. It also favors warmer than normal water over the Maritime Continent which favors 4-6. 500 Heights over NA -> November a ridge is shown to be out West. It transitions eastward as December progresses, and then parks itself over eastern NA for Jan and Feb - monster SER of sorts. Maybe by April it relents. The NAO might be negative for the first 1/3 of winter before returning to a net positive state. It would not surprise me to see the pattern relax by April, and we see chances for snow in early April (especially the mountains). SSTs -> The La Nina on Cansips appears to fade significantly by February. By next summer, we might be seeing Nino conditions for the western 3/4 of the Pacific. We have talked about gradient. @Typhoon Tiphas mentioned gradient many times(I think I have the correct poster). That means the delta (difference) between the La Nina and the waters around it matters. The steeper that gradient, the more of a stimulus we get. El Nino was kind of a washed out gradient last winter, and we got washed out results on the EC. From the recent climate.gov ENSO blog, "Said more simply, it’s not just how much warmer or colder than average that part of the tropical Pacific is that jumbles up the tropical atmosphere, it’s the difference in warming or cooling compared the rest of the Pacific. And that’s where the relative ONI comes in! So where do things stand? The regular ONI for May-July was +0.2°C. But the relative ONI was already down to -0.4°C. That means there could be a scenario later this year where the ONI is not yet below -0.5°C, but the relative ONI already is, and the atmosphere might start reflecting La Niña-like impacts. Doesn’t that seem like a pain to communicate? " To me, since the Pacific basin is warmer than normal, La Nina might well have a threshold warmer than what we saw maybe 30 years ago. That means that what we see as a weak La Nina might actually be a bit stronger than we think. So, the weak La Nina forecast below might well be a bit stronger given that La Ninas might have increasingly warmer SSTs. Overall Forecast: I do think we see some crazy cold air masses at some point. I do think the Mountain West does really, really well in terms of snow and cold. In fact, the higher elevations there are already getting snow. Their winter has already started above 8,000'!!! I do think that middle and western portions of our forum will see a colder and snowier winter. But beware, if this truly turns out to be a weak La Nina....all bets(and I mean all bets) are off the table. Weak La Nina's in E TN can often be bitterly cold. So, instead of doing a monthly J-F forecast, I am going to simply put out a general forecast. One, well-placed cold shot during Jan-Feb could really skew things. During 2017-18 we had a crazy cold shot that straddled late December to January. It didn't snow much but was crazy cold. We were below freezing at TRI for seven straight days! The monthly climate data doesn't really show that cold shot as it straddled the end of one month and the beginning of another. That winter was also a weak La Nina. I am liking that analog year 2017-2018. If we had any precip in that pattern, we would have been buried. As it was, it simply froze things solid. December was -0.8F . Jan was -4.5F. Feb was +9.4 F. March was -2.1F. April was -4.1 F. Maybe we had a strat split late that winter??? I am going to go ahead and add these. And I am far, far deeper into this than intended...Sorry, this is kind of a "stream of thought" post, and maybe not as scientific as it should be. I also want to add 16-17 into the mix at it was a first year La Nina and should be weighted equally or more to 17-18. But here is why I am far less confident this winter. See the 94-95 moderate Nino listed in the graphic at the very bottom of this post. This past winter reminded me of that type of winter - blah and not a lot of chances. Now, what came after 94-95? The winter that shall not be named, because I just won't invoke a winter that is a benchmark winter of my lifetime, and it was true winter. It was a weak La Nina following a moderate El Nino. It is also a winter that maybe doesn't fit the current warm basin look of the Pac which is why I haven't used it. That said, it might deserve some weight though I haven't given it any. Just beware. So, for now, I like the 16-17, 17-18 blend of weak La Nina winters. December looks chilly. Jan is a tossup, but leans warm. Feb looks warm. I did break down the 16-17 winter by month as well as 17-18. I also provided a blend of the two which I tend to like better, and is probably pretty close to my thinking. In addition, the 16-17/17-18 analog blends might be of better use as they are recent analogs, and not almost 30 years old. Plus, those two analogs came from a weak El Nino which I think is a better fit. Notice that the March blend is not overly warm on the EC. I do think maybe some late season chances exist north of I-40, especially in E TN and the southern Apps. ***The following would be my best guess for winter temps.*** Refer to the article at the very top of the page for snowfall anomalies. Those looked about right. Reference for ENSO graphic list: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm And if you made it this far, thank you for reading this! I intended to make a short post, but ended up just saying, "Screw it," and wrote a long post. LOL. I normally don't like long seasonal forecasts, and really, those long posts end up being very wrong much of the time. I really think seasonal forecasting often involves false correlations, and I am sure my post is guilty of some of that. In other words, sometimes my seasonal forecasts might "appear" to be correct, but often it is just blind luck that they even got close. In other words it is like saying TN is going to win a ballgame because of Nico, but really they win because of great defensive line play. They won, but not really my line of thinking. So, have some fun with this, but don't take it as the gospel. This is just for fun. Feel free to post your winter ideas in this thread. And this thread is not meant to be the December 2024 winter thread. That will have its own thread. This is merely a speculation thread, and won't be rolled into a winter thread. If this verifies, we could see some cold college football playoff games during December....

38/30 14-18' hopefully

Added the 1/18 CPC FEBRUARY outlook and the new CPC week 3-4 issued 1/26. Both posted here on 1/26 748PM. While the anomalies are warmer than normal the first two weeks of February, it might not mean absurdly warm preventing snow in NYC. The warmer than normal anomalies seem to be more centered up in Canada, modifying the potential for true arctic intrusions down here. Guidance suggests the potential for several east coast storms In February and the possibility of snows from Asheville to Boston - I95 westward. That may be climo combined with the El Nino pattern of potentially above normal precip southern USA and up the east coast to NYC. So, can the NYC CP Feb snow total exceed our January total? Temperatures may chill down a bit in mid February? Will add on here Friday evening the 26th with the new 1/26 CPC guidance. May also add Don's stats if he has any for this pattern for Feb. Thank you all. And now the CPC Jan 31 update for Feb. Looks a little higher prob of not so much qpf, and chilled New England a bit. On March 2 attached the Feb verification. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area.

Different than the refresher powdery event of Sat Feb 17, and this past Tuesdays Feb 13 wetter snowstorm, it still has possibilities for adding to our winter snow totals with modeled "potential" for half a foot or more for the I84 corridor inclusive of the Poconos-extreme nw NJ interior sections se NYS-CT. Possibilities even exist for an inch or four down to I95 and NYC though for now, odds are less. This could be one warmer more rainy event the 22nd and then a following rapidly intensifying coastal storm Fri-Sat the 23rd-24th. As generally usual higher terrain-inland best chance for snow. A strong short wave in the eastern Pacific this weekend will move through the southwest USA early this coming week and probably be ingested into a series of northern stream Canadian short eaves that dive southeast into Midwest and form a sharp amplifying trough over the northeast USA by next weekend. Details tbd. This probably will be of NYC subforum interest for some of us the next few days as winter potential refuses to go away. Added 10 to 1 SLR, 24 hour 00z/17 global ensembles and the NWS 04z/17 very low chance 3+" snow D6-7, to look back upon when whatever transpires. Title tightening up and downgrade update at 537AM/20. Verification attached for a failed event- useless thread. Numerous traces of sleet -snow-rain mix I84 into NNJ 3P/22-9A/23 but modeled short waves remained separate with one tracking across se Canada and the other actually trailed and dropped down through the Carolines. Was over early per the poster comments.

With so many awesome pictures posted in our forum from the storms this week, I wanted to get a thread going to share here.

I'll try to kick this off with an image from England in the 1300s: I'm hoping that's Boreas blowing in some cold winds under a storm cloud in the top right corner.