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Found 124 results

  1. Since we've have had our first freeze of the season, I figured I would start a winter banter thread. Take anything you see and read in this thread with a giant grain of salt. Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.
  2. Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
  3. Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
  4. Hearing reports of snowfall in Va. So let's get this puppy rolling. Post of obs and general storm discussion welcome. Good Luck one and all. p.s/ I hope you all didn't mind me naming this after myself. I always wanted to be famous.
  5. Snowy Holiday GTG 2017
  6. Time to fire up our 1st winter storm thread of the 2017/18 season. Could be the 1st accumulating snows for many. 12z Euro/EPS and 18z GFS/GEFS are advertising a modest event at this point.
  7. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  8. Anyone else signed up to play? I'm "Hugh Midity", coming off a strong 3rd place finish last year with ambitions of winning it all this year. The season gets underway tomorrow and with the pattern shift beginning later next week, things will get exciting early this year. https://www.FantasyBlizzard.com
  9. The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line. Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility. Stay tuned! Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
  10. SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
  11. Since meteorological winter is just over three months away, it's probably about time to start a thread for winter predictions. It looks like we will be in a weak la nina. I've heard the PDO is returning closer to normal. I'm originally from the SE, do the AO and NAO have much effect on the climate of the lower Midwest?
  12. It's currently coming quite a t-storm in my neck of the woods. Got up to 70 today. Looking at a 50 degree drop over the next few days.
  13. Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start. Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249 Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?
  14. Let's start a new Pittsburgh thread for Winter 2016-2017. If anyone posted recently about the early winter why don't we put them in here going forward.
  15. This is a storm observation thread for March 9 into March 10.
  16. All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
  17. 12z NAM rolling into the station, not much use at this stage however, but fun to look at

  18. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  19. Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week. Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong. We have global indices favorable. As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm. I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is. Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z. Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.
  20. Nice 2-4" refresher on Saturday with the clipper.
  21. 46 F at 10:00 PM at RDU. No snow yet.
  22. Post em if you got em.
  23. Some photos of the winter snows that started in the Cascades of Washington last month.
  24. NAM/RGEM deadly combo this winter continue the trends of keeping the low south of LI with long duration light snow into Wednesday. General ideas from the past few days of 1-3 spot 4 amounts..Best may end up being south of I-90 but we'll see
  25. This event is only around 36 hours from first flakes if models are to be believed. GGEM is lighter snows of 1-2 inches but more widespread. GFS has been consistent with heavier totals in all but one of the last 8 runs, but in all but two of those 8 runs, most snows greater than 1 inch occur over terrain areas in the East. Otherwise they are spread out enough to where areas may pick up 3/4ths of an inch from one system, then have it melt and pick up 3/4ths from the second. So even though you see these snowfall totals, it will not likely be reflected at these amounts on the ground at a given time outside the terrain areas. GGEM through Mon evening. GFS through Monday evening.