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  1. There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme. So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating. That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago. In life we go one day at a time. Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive. 12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS.
  2. Looks like the first ten days or so will be warm, but that is not a lock. After three years of La Nina, we are probably closing-in on our last few months of this ENSO phase. La Nina's often yield warm Januarys, but something makes me think we buck the trend this month for at least part of the month. I have January as AN in my seasonal forecast, but a portion of the last 20 days of the month could be quite cold. I still expect some wild swings this winter w/ a base warm pattern and very cold interludes.
  3. Thought this one was fired up already since fall started a couple weeks ago. Just realized I was posting in the spring/summer thread still. Of course love to keep winter storm obs in the storm threads for later reading all in a single thread. But these are good for daily obs or notable events outside the storm threads. That said, I hit 47.3 this morning after a day time high of 69 degrees yesterday. Pretty similar temperatures for this same period in September 2015 when we got a nice first cold front of the season on 9/13 and had two days of great temps. It was 70/46 on 9/13 and 66/43 on 9/14 that year. Current temp is 71 degrees here, sunny. It was 72 about an hour ago but dropped back a little. In 2015 we never got back above the 84ish range after the front. It had been in the upper 80s for days on end leading into it.
  4. We will soon find out if the high latitude blocking signatures pay dividends for our area. May need a boat and may also need snow shovels. We'll try separating this into threads by month. If that doesn't work, I will simply switch this to Part I of winter. Have fun and good luck!
  5. 1991-1992: The Perfect Storm 1992-2000: Mar 12-14, 1993; Feb 11-12, 1994; Feb 2-4, 1995; Jan 6-8, 1996; Feb 8, 1997; Jan 23-24, 1998; Dec 23, 1998; Jan 25, 2000 2000-2001: Dec 20, Dec 30, Jan 21, Feb 5, Feb 22 2001-2002: Jan 19 2002-2003: Dec 5; Dec 25, feb 7, feb 16-17 2003-2004: dec 5, dec 14; feb 5; feb 24 2004-2005: dec 19, jan 19, jan 22, feb 21, feb 24, feb 28; mar 8 2005-2006: dec 4, dec 6, dec 9; dec 15, feb 12; apr 5 2006-2007: dec 7, jan 18, feb 14, feb 25; mar 17; apr 15 2007-2008: dec 13, Dec 26, jan 17; feb 12, feb 22 2008-2009: Oct 28, Nov 21, dec 6, dec 16, dec 19, dec 21, dec 23; jan 6, jan 19, jan 27, feb 2; mar 2 2009-2010: dec 5, dec 19(snowpocalypse); jan 30, feb 2, 6(snowmageddon), 10(snowverkill), 12, 15, 26(Snowicane) 2010-2011: dec 26, jan 7-8, jan 11, jan 18, jan 26, feb 2, 19 2011-2012: Oct 29(Snowtober); jan 19 2012-2013: Oct 29(sandy), Nov 7(athena), feb 9(nemo) 2013-2014: dec 8(dion), 10, 15(electra); jan 2(hercules/polar vortex), 21(janus); feb 13(pax) 2014-2015: Jan 18, jan 23(iola); jan 25(juno); feb 22(pandora) 2015-2016: jan 22 (jonas/snowzilla), feb 8 (mars), feb 15 (olympia) 2016-2017: mar 14 (stella) 2017-2018: Dec 9 (benji), jan 2-5, 2018(grayson/bomb cyclone), feb 3-7(liam); mar 2(riley), 6(quinn), 13 (skylar), 20(toby), mar 25 2018-2019: nov 15(avery), jan 10 (gia); mar 1, mar 2, mar 4(scott) 2019-2020: Jan 18 (jacob) 2020-2021: Dec 16 (gail), jan 31-feb 3 (orlena), feb 7 (quade), feb 10-11 (shirley), feb 18-19 (viola), feb 22 (ward) 2021-2022: Jan 3 (frida), Jan 6-7 (garrett/atmospheric river), jan 16-17 (izzy), jan 22 (jasper), jan 29 (kenan) 2022-2023: Invest 90L Paul Kocin Northeast Snowstorms Talks (2009, 2011, 2017)
  6. Here are a few winter outlooks. Feel free to add any others or your own thoughts https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
  7. Since we do have a variety of forum posters in areas that will see snow/sleet/ZR - at least initially and on the backend, plus there is a flood threat, along with some potential advisory-level winds and possibly record breaking cold, decided to go ahead and make an obs thread. Currently misty and mostly virga and 36 with dp 32 here in NW Philly.
  8. Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day. Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.
  9. February discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum. When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm. It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc. Hope everyone is doing well.
  10. Hi everyone, Thought I’d create a catch-all thread to post, and discuss, some of the most significant winter storms to affect the Southeast U.S. states. With that in mind, I intend to share details regarding many of the historic snow storms that have battered the SE…dating as far back as the 19th century. Moreover, I look forward to reading first-hand accounts of the most memorable events you’ve experienced, first-hand.
  11. Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better!
  12. January discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum. When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm. It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc. Merry Christmas to all as well, I hope everyone has a great holiday.
  13. MRX added the Northern Plateau counties to the WWA but mentioned that heavier convective showers are also possible into the Central Valley. Should be fun if you get a band or snow squall. The eastern mountains are golden.
  14. 454AM Wednesday Jan 12: title and tags adjusted to drop Saturday, focus late Sunday-Monday morning for what appears to be an 18 hour storm of snow-rain-snow. Heaviest snow tends to be modeled west of the I-95 corridor but ensembles still warrant continued concern for the axis of heavy snow including I95. At this point far too uncertain but where it snows for 12 hours, widespread 6+" seems likely. Also a 6 hour period of potential 50 kt inflow gusts is possible for the coasts Sunday morning and if it occurs with the dawn Monday high tide, would result in coastal flooding, magnitude unknown. This does not appear to be a long duration storm (24 hours+) but it should be intense for a few hours Sunday night or Monday morning. Again track uncertain, and sensitive to the intensity of the surface low. There still is opportunity that this will track too close to our area for much snow but there are several days to adjust the track and resultant precipitation type. It does appear there will be a general inch to 1.5 inches of qpf with this system, maybe thunder too. A big storm with large scale impacts entire east coast-Appalachians. The only reason I didn't highly stronger wording for impact, is that this will occur later Sunday and the following Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. --- At this 6-7 day lead time 8PM Sunday Jan 9 issuance, options are fairly wide open. For now, a light or moderate event 'seems' likely but absolutely not a lock, nor is a heavy event excluded. This event still could be demolished to zero by what happens off New England on the 14th, or what follows between the 19th-22nd. However there already has been discussion the past several days for the coming weekend. Ending 12z/9 the past 6 cycles of the ECMWF op, the last 4 cycles of the CMC GGEM [LI 3 cycles, I84-4 cycles] have some sort of snow event, especially I84. Maybe the GFS via it's 18z/9 cycle is shifting snow emphasis on the 16th for our area instead of bombing off the coast on the 14th? Having reviewed ensembles: 12z/9 EPS/GEFS/NAEFS all have some sort of frozen event is coming to the northeast USA, along and north of I80 including LI. Have added the broad coverage low chance WPC D7 issued at 17z/9, the EPS 24 hour qpf ending 12z/17 and the 12z/EC 850 MB low (GEFS so far has nothing, still favoring the 14th but not as far south and west as previous). NAEFS products for 00z/17 are added including previous 24 hr qpf, 00z sfc temp in C, and the sfc pattern. There will be quite a few model changes-conflicts and this could end up having been a wasted effort... but it seems worthy of further scrutiny as our next possible significant snow or ice event for at least a portion of the NYC subforum.
  15. Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance. Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England. 718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same.
  16. This subforum should see some light snow accumulations tonight with the 500MB cold trough passage accompanied by steepening low level moist lapse rates and the weak inverted trough back from the ocean storm that forces convergence-lift near I80-LI. Tonights snow should be a 0.1-1.5 inch affair. Frozen ground will permit untreated surfaces to become slippery in some areas tonight. Monday nights warm air advection snow (snow rain-freezing rain LI) behind the departing 500MB cold trough and well ahead of the late week 500MB trough should be of shorter duration and amounts probably less than whatever occurs tonight (less than 1" new), but still a contributor to possible slippery travel in some locations Monday night. While impacts minor-negligible, for those who want snow and receive it, this may have to suffice for a while. Timing for travel may be considerations, especially NYC-LI/CT Monday morning early commute if it's still snowing, ditto Tuesday predawn commute. Combined small event amounts via CoCoRaHs will be added here Tuesday and also as closure to the 21-24 thread.
  17. While uncertainty exists on the target for a rain to hazardous brief commuter significant snow event, a thread has been started to take the load off January. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. I would add that climo on something like this probably favors an inch or less NYC CP, but I do think there is going to be a narrow lane of more than 1" per multiple model indications. NWS ensemble risk of greater than 1" is less than 30%, so that is the reasoning for calling this Potential, in the headline. 656PM: adjusted Title to OBS-NOWCAST. Added freezing rain and rain to the tags. First batch of mixed precip should arrive ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS around 1-2A as snow freezing rain-rain, but the primary batch is slated to occur between 5AM and Noon as snow north and west of NYC til NYC-Li and NJ I95 changes to snow around 7-830A. It ends from northwest to southeast, first in nw NJ by 11A and then NYC by 1P and further southeast during mid afternoon. Amounts near I84 of a dusting to possibly 2" with a general 1.5-4" in the core of the event from near NYC/LI-down I95 in NJ. It may briefly snow 1/2mi moderate for an hour or so. Still a little uncertain where the 4 inches are...probably NJ/LI.
  18. Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements. Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part due to at least 42 consecutive hours of freezing temperatures on non snow covered ground, and beginning near sundown when the impact of solar insolation lessens. Exactly who gets how much of what is being determined by member observations with model and forecast contributions enhancing, but not hyping interest. Coastal flood threat as per OKX. Usually we like at least 12 hours of gale force onshore flow to build the water levels, but with the astronomically higher tide cycle, 980s MB pressure at Monday morning high tide, an inch of rain in the 6 hours up to high tide emptying from rivers-streams, there should be enough surge and incoming wave action to cause coastal flooding. Working a bit against the flooding NYC southward along the NJ shore is the onslaught of wind abating and turning southerly near the time of high tide. Certainly the early part of the morning high tide cycle looms larger. If you're in a tidal inundation area, follow NWS statements. I'd park my car with parking laws in mind where it can't get flooded. Wind damage: several 12z/16 HRRRX graphics are appended. Please use the legend. Midnight to 6AM is best chance for damaging wind , to occur in a 3hour period ranging from near 2A NYC to near 5A e LI. Gusts to 60 kt possible e LI with gusts 45 kt possible NYC metro airports. I could be too conservative. Have cell phones charged and be prepared for no internet early Monday. Many of our members, even to western LI will be reporting a bit of snow or sleet late today (some are from Ocean Effect already). mPing will be helpful especially for us inland folks just north of I78 where an hour or 2 error in the precip phase change from snow to sleet/freezing rain or rain can mean an inch or two of snow. The 12z HRRR, HRRRX, and 3K NAM seem to support slightly more snow than maybe some are anticipating. Whether that occurs is unknown. No matter, if you have heart problems and live north of I80, you may want some assistance removing slush laden with maybe 3/4" of rain (glop). And of course have your resources to clear it by 6PM Monday when temperatures falling below freezing start the solidifying process. {The HRRRX amounts may be too large by 2", so it is a slower to change model with 1/4-1/2" everywhere up through I84 by 06z, so that could bias the amounts high there. edited in at 1036AM} ICE: I think parts of the I84 corridor including Sussex County NJ may have pockets of damaging ice near 4AM Monday when the ice combined with wind gusts 45 MPH in the ridges could be enough to knock out some power. Monday afternoon-evening: The trough aloft passage and influx of colder air should wring out areas of 0.1-1" snowfall in the steep moist lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, including NYC-LI.
  19. We are 48 hours or so from this potential system beginning in Western areas of the forum. We have concensus model agreement of a system sliding south of the forecast area, leaving us in the cold sector. Temps in advance are way better than yesterday's set up, which worked well for some and skipped others. Any rain here looks to be brief before the snow starts in snow favored areas. Though most areas are modeled to begin as snow and stay snow. The track of the 850 low was pretty classic for snow events nearly valley wide, though the southern border, as currently modeled, would probably see temperature issues. Should be an interesting 48 hours of model watching. This is a good second chance for some who missed the best bands yesterday.
  20. Adding some baseline graphics from 12z-21z/6 guidance that tries to frame a realistic outcome of this event. Snow begins ne PA/extreme nw NJ 10PM-midnight and overspreads all of our area by 230 AM. Bands of heavy snow with around 1"/hour rates should develop in central and northern NJ between 3 and 4AM and become dominant across LI into southern CT between 5 and 7AM. It ends from southwest to northeast between 8AM and Noon across our NYC subforum. Scattered gusty flurries or brief snow showers could continue into late Friday due to steep and still somewhat moist lapse rates associated with the short wave passage. Cleanup should be swift shortly after the snow ends. An 850 MB low will try to get going south of Long Island near sunrise Friday which should permit the overall heavier snowfall from this intensifying coastal low to occur in New England, possibly back to eastern LI. High impact event for the morning commute--- should result in delays/cancellations of some morning activities. IF you have to travel, allow plenty of extra time. 1) NWS 5PM collaborated snowfall graphic. 2) NWS 5PM collaborated Storm Severity Index. 3) SPC HREF ensemble forecast snowfall (12z/6) 4) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 4AM 5) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 7AM 6) NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 2+" of snow. 7 NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 6+" of snow. Note the ensembles are not quite so bullish on 6" amounts. Do enjoy whatever we get... this should be fun for a little while.
  21. Cyclic modeling of the EC/GGEM and ensemble portion of the GFS since this weekend has been developing a fast moving late developing coastal low, resulting in a period of precipitation occurring mainly between midnight and 6PM Friday. Tracking and therefore precipitation type are uncertain but recent ensembles were offering at least 2" of snow to portions of our area, the EPS furthest west and the GEFS/GEPS a bit further east. The GFS op model has been generally offshore. If the low develops further north or further east, very little snow will occur here. Right now 850MB Low development looks too far north for a moderate event but probably worthy of monitoring and trying to figure it out. Based on the model performance for the 1/3/21 grazer snow, we may not know much til we see the NAM consistently give us 1/4" qpf in frozen form with more than 2" of event Total Positive Snow Depth as shown on the Tropical Tidbits web site. 12z/3 500MB ensemble plots below serve as a baseline to witness future modeling departures, GEFS top and EPS next. IF this approaching short wave ends up weaker or further north, it will be difficult to receive meaningful snow here. At 321PM added the 16z/3 WPC D4-5 probs of 1/4" frozen W.E. (lower 2 graphics) which bridges Friday morning 12z/7. The darker green is greater than 30% chance.
  22. 60/56 at DCA with 1005.5mb SLP at 2pm. Feels like snow.
  23. We're turning this into the TIMS thread. Thunder in the mountains model? Can it equal snow afterwards? If so, does severe weather = heavier snow? We'll know by January 3rd, lol.
  24. Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday. Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor. I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ. Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis). A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur. 631A/27
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