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  1. Thought this one was fired up already since fall started a couple weeks ago. Just realized I was posting in the spring/summer thread still. Of course love to keep winter storm obs in the storm threads for later reading all in a single thread. But these are good for daily obs or notable events outside the storm threads. That said, I hit 47.3 this morning after a day time high of 69 degrees yesterday. Pretty similar temperatures for this same period in September 2015 when we got a nice first cold front of the season on 9/13 and had two days of great temps. It was 70/46 on 9/13 and 66/43 on 9/14 that year. Current temp is 71 degrees here, sunny. It was 72 about an hour ago but dropped back a little. In 2015 we never got back above the 84ish range after the front. It had been in the upper 80s for days on end leading into it.
  2. February discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum. When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm. It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc. Hope everyone is doing well.
  3. Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day. Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.
  4. Hi everyone, Thought I’d create a catch-all thread to post, and discuss, some of the most significant winter storms to affect the Southeast U.S. states. With that in mind, I intend to share details regarding many of the historic snow storms that have battered the SE…dating as far back as the 19th century. Moreover, I look forward to reading first-hand accounts of the most memorable events you’ve experienced, first-hand.
  5. 454AM Wednesday Jan 12: title and tags adjusted to drop Saturday, focus late Sunday-Monday morning for what appears to be an 18 hour storm of snow-rain-snow. Heaviest snow tends to be modeled west of the I-95 corridor but ensembles still warrant continued concern for the axis of heavy snow including I95. At this point far too uncertain but where it snows for 12 hours, widespread 6+" seems likely. Also a 6 hour period of potential 50 kt inflow gusts is possible for the coasts Sunday morning and if it occurs with the dawn Monday high tide, would result in coastal flooding, magnitude unknown. This does not appear to be a long duration storm (24 hours+) but it should be intense for a few hours Sunday night or Monday morning. Again track uncertain, and sensitive to the intensity of the surface low. There still is opportunity that this will track too close to our area for much snow but there are several days to adjust the track and resultant precipitation type. It does appear there will be a general inch to 1.5 inches of qpf with this system, maybe thunder too. A big storm with large scale impacts entire east coast-Appalachians. The only reason I didn't highly stronger wording for impact, is that this will occur later Sunday and the following Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. --- At this 6-7 day lead time 8PM Sunday Jan 9 issuance, options are fairly wide open. For now, a light or moderate event 'seems' likely but absolutely not a lock, nor is a heavy event excluded. This event still could be demolished to zero by what happens off New England on the 14th, or what follows between the 19th-22nd. However there already has been discussion the past several days for the coming weekend. Ending 12z/9 the past 6 cycles of the ECMWF op, the last 4 cycles of the CMC GGEM [LI 3 cycles, I84-4 cycles] have some sort of snow event, especially I84. Maybe the GFS via it's 18z/9 cycle is shifting snow emphasis on the 16th for our area instead of bombing off the coast on the 14th? Having reviewed ensembles: 12z/9 EPS/GEFS/NAEFS all have some sort of frozen event is coming to the northeast USA, along and north of I80 including LI. Have added the broad coverage low chance WPC D7 issued at 17z/9, the EPS 24 hour qpf ending 12z/17 and the 12z/EC 850 MB low (GEFS so far has nothing, still favoring the 14th but not as far south and west as previous). NAEFS products for 00z/17 are added including previous 24 hr qpf, 00z sfc temp in C, and the sfc pattern. There will be quite a few model changes-conflicts and this could end up having been a wasted effort... but it seems worthy of further scrutiny as our next possible significant snow or ice event for at least a portion of the NYC subforum.
  6. Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better!
  7. January discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum. When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm. It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc. Merry Christmas to all as well, I hope everyone has a great holiday.
  8. MRX added the Northern Plateau counties to the WWA but mentioned that heavier convective showers are also possible into the Central Valley. Should be fun if you get a band or snow squall. The eastern mountains are golden.
  9. Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance. Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England. 718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same.
  10. This subforum should see some light snow accumulations tonight with the 500MB cold trough passage accompanied by steepening low level moist lapse rates and the weak inverted trough back from the ocean storm that forces convergence-lift near I80-LI. Tonights snow should be a 0.1-1.5 inch affair. Frozen ground will permit untreated surfaces to become slippery in some areas tonight. Monday nights warm air advection snow (snow rain-freezing rain LI) behind the departing 500MB cold trough and well ahead of the late week 500MB trough should be of shorter duration and amounts probably less than whatever occurs tonight (less than 1" new), but still a contributor to possible slippery travel in some locations Monday night. While impacts minor-negligible, for those who want snow and receive it, this may have to suffice for a while. Timing for travel may be considerations, especially NYC-LI/CT Monday morning early commute if it's still snowing, ditto Tuesday predawn commute. Combined small event amounts via CoCoRaHs will be added here Tuesday and also as closure to the 21-24 thread.
  11. While uncertainty exists on the target for a rain to hazardous brief commuter significant snow event, a thread has been started to take the load off January. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. I would add that climo on something like this probably favors an inch or less NYC CP, but I do think there is going to be a narrow lane of more than 1" per multiple model indications. NWS ensemble risk of greater than 1" is less than 30%, so that is the reasoning for calling this Potential, in the headline. 656PM: adjusted Title to OBS-NOWCAST. Added freezing rain and rain to the tags. First batch of mixed precip should arrive ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS around 1-2A as snow freezing rain-rain, but the primary batch is slated to occur between 5AM and Noon as snow north and west of NYC til NYC-Li and NJ I95 changes to snow around 7-830A. It ends from northwest to southeast, first in nw NJ by 11A and then NYC by 1P and further southeast during mid afternoon. Amounts near I84 of a dusting to possibly 2" with a general 1.5-4" in the core of the event from near NYC/LI-down I95 in NJ. It may briefly snow 1/2mi moderate for an hour or so. Still a little uncertain where the 4 inches are...probably NJ/LI.
  12. Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements. Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part due to at least 42 consecutive hours of freezing temperatures on non snow covered ground, and beginning near sundown when the impact of solar insolation lessens. Exactly who gets how much of what is being determined by member observations with model and forecast contributions enhancing, but not hyping interest. Coastal flood threat as per OKX. Usually we like at least 12 hours of gale force onshore flow to build the water levels, but with the astronomically higher tide cycle, 980s MB pressure at Monday morning high tide, an inch of rain in the 6 hours up to high tide emptying from rivers-streams, there should be enough surge and incoming wave action to cause coastal flooding. Working a bit against the flooding NYC southward along the NJ shore is the onslaught of wind abating and turning southerly near the time of high tide. Certainly the early part of the morning high tide cycle looms larger. If you're in a tidal inundation area, follow NWS statements. I'd park my car with parking laws in mind where it can't get flooded. Wind damage: several 12z/16 HRRRX graphics are appended. Please use the legend. Midnight to 6AM is best chance for damaging wind , to occur in a 3hour period ranging from near 2A NYC to near 5A e LI. Gusts to 60 kt possible e LI with gusts 45 kt possible NYC metro airports. I could be too conservative. Have cell phones charged and be prepared for no internet early Monday. Many of our members, even to western LI will be reporting a bit of snow or sleet late today (some are from Ocean Effect already). mPing will be helpful especially for us inland folks just north of I78 where an hour or 2 error in the precip phase change from snow to sleet/freezing rain or rain can mean an inch or two of snow. The 12z HRRR, HRRRX, and 3K NAM seem to support slightly more snow than maybe some are anticipating. Whether that occurs is unknown. No matter, if you have heart problems and live north of I80, you may want some assistance removing slush laden with maybe 3/4" of rain (glop). And of course have your resources to clear it by 6PM Monday when temperatures falling below freezing start the solidifying process. {The HRRRX amounts may be too large by 2", so it is a slower to change model with 1/4-1/2" everywhere up through I84 by 06z, so that could bias the amounts high there. edited in at 1036AM} ICE: I think parts of the I84 corridor including Sussex County NJ may have pockets of damaging ice near 4AM Monday when the ice combined with wind gusts 45 MPH in the ridges could be enough to knock out some power. Monday afternoon-evening: The trough aloft passage and influx of colder air should wring out areas of 0.1-1" snowfall in the steep moist lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, including NYC-LI.
  13. We are 48 hours or so from this potential system beginning in Western areas of the forum. We have concensus model agreement of a system sliding south of the forecast area, leaving us in the cold sector. Temps in advance are way better than yesterday's set up, which worked well for some and skipped others. Any rain here looks to be brief before the snow starts in snow favored areas. Though most areas are modeled to begin as snow and stay snow. The track of the 850 low was pretty classic for snow events nearly valley wide, though the southern border, as currently modeled, would probably see temperature issues. Should be an interesting 48 hours of model watching. This is a good second chance for some who missed the best bands yesterday.
  14. Adding some baseline graphics from 12z-21z/6 guidance that tries to frame a realistic outcome of this event. Snow begins ne PA/extreme nw NJ 10PM-midnight and overspreads all of our area by 230 AM. Bands of heavy snow with around 1"/hour rates should develop in central and northern NJ between 3 and 4AM and become dominant across LI into southern CT between 5 and 7AM. It ends from southwest to northeast between 8AM and Noon across our NYC subforum. Scattered gusty flurries or brief snow showers could continue into late Friday due to steep and still somewhat moist lapse rates associated with the short wave passage. Cleanup should be swift shortly after the snow ends. An 850 MB low will try to get going south of Long Island near sunrise Friday which should permit the overall heavier snowfall from this intensifying coastal low to occur in New England, possibly back to eastern LI. High impact event for the morning commute--- should result in delays/cancellations of some morning activities. IF you have to travel, allow plenty of extra time. 1) NWS 5PM collaborated snowfall graphic. 2) NWS 5PM collaborated Storm Severity Index. 3) SPC HREF ensemble forecast snowfall (12z/6) 4) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 4AM 5) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 7AM 6) NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 2+" of snow. 7 NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 6+" of snow. Note the ensembles are not quite so bullish on 6" amounts. Do enjoy whatever we get... this should be fun for a little while.
  15. Cyclic modeling of the EC/GGEM and ensemble portion of the GFS since this weekend has been developing a fast moving late developing coastal low, resulting in a period of precipitation occurring mainly between midnight and 6PM Friday. Tracking and therefore precipitation type are uncertain but recent ensembles were offering at least 2" of snow to portions of our area, the EPS furthest west and the GEFS/GEPS a bit further east. The GFS op model has been generally offshore. If the low develops further north or further east, very little snow will occur here. Right now 850MB Low development looks too far north for a moderate event but probably worthy of monitoring and trying to figure it out. Based on the model performance for the 1/3/21 grazer snow, we may not know much til we see the NAM consistently give us 1/4" qpf in frozen form with more than 2" of event Total Positive Snow Depth as shown on the Tropical Tidbits web site. 12z/3 500MB ensemble plots below serve as a baseline to witness future modeling departures, GEFS top and EPS next. IF this approaching short wave ends up weaker or further north, it will be difficult to receive meaningful snow here. At 321PM added the 16z/3 WPC D4-5 probs of 1/4" frozen W.E. (lower 2 graphics) which bridges Friday morning 12z/7. The darker green is greater than 30% chance.
  16. 60/56 at DCA with 1005.5mb SLP at 2pm. Feels like snow.
  17. Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC. I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time. So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT. Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas. Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST
  18. We're turning this into the TIMS thread. Thunder in the mountains model? Can it equal snow afterwards? If so, does severe weather = heavier snow? We'll know by January 3rd, lol.
  19. Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday. Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor. I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ. Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis). A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur. 631A/27
  20. Many models have a little snow or ice for our area next Wednesday the 8th, possibly ending as rain? WPC Friday afternoons forecast has a half inch+ of qpf for our area next Wednesday and a 30-49% chance of 3+" of snow or 1/4 inch combined sleet/snow. Click the graphics. That's not too bad for a day5-6 forecast. I may have overreached on PROBABLE hazardous???? I do think there should be a little ice, at a minimum over the I84 high terrain. The rest of the area much more uncertain. We should be close to the right rear quad of an upper level jet core centered near Nova Scotia (130 knots 200-300MB) next Wednesday (see EPS 18z Wednesday 300MB), this behind the strong negative tilt short wave departure of Monday. A weakening 500MB short wave from the upper Midwest Wednesday morning crosses into northern New England by Thursday morning. The 850 Low is north of our area. Snow thicknesses are marginal especially south of I84, so that snow amounts this far in advance are VERY uncertain and likely to be less than 3" rather than more. Some sort of light to possibly moderate ice-snow event should occur in parts of our interior Wednesday Dec 8. One consideration is the qpf being less than currently advertised which would reduce amounts. This thread is posted to focus anyone's interest into the discussion. LI-coastal NJ--- primary modeling may eventually favor your area but for now, I think the primary ensemble considerations for a 6 to 18 hour period of hazardous wintry weather next Wednesday is to the northwest of I95. TAGS and Thread title may change this weekend or early next week. 717PM/3 Dec 2021 6AM Wednesday the 8th: converted this thread to OBS-Nowcast. No other change.
  21. A period or two of snow or flurries should move through our NYC subforum Sunday morning, with untreated slippery conditions in some areas, especially NJ/NYS. Precipitation will tend to melt on pavement over LI where it may change to rain showers toward forenoon. A large part of any snowfall should melt during the afternoon. The most likely area to receive spotty 1 inch amounts seems to be ne PA, w NJ and the se NYS hills. MPING may be helpful for those trying to know what is hitting the ground. Also the axis of heaviest (albeit a minor light snowfall) may not be determined until 3AM Sunday as the eastward streaking snow tends to show the most favored lift region. IF (and there is still doubt since some models including the 18z GFS, are dryer) this snowfall occurs, I'd consider it the first widespread very light snow of the season. Again IFFF. This excludes the flurries that occurred Friday into Saturday morning Nov 26-27 (measurable snow did occur over the northern fringe of the NYC subforum Friday). Best lift seems to be reserved for Monday morning when the sharper trough passes through, but the RH tends to be shallower and so there may not be much, if any, showery yield. Regarding todays (11/27 cycles) RGEM inverted trough mesoscale developments over CT/e LI Monday...unlikely but not out of the question. Does CP Measure more than a Trace:? Possibly, if whatever falls doesn't melt before the 7AM observation. More likely just brooms, than any shovel.
  22. 726PM/15: Our forum is well aware that the recent few days of modeling is favoring a developing -NAO (Greenland Block-anomalously warm 500MB heights) that probably won't fully activate until Thanksgiving and beyond. One sharpening-negative tilt trough is multimodeled to drive southeast from central Canada Sunday the 21st and close off somewhere over New England Tuesday the 23rd, then possibly lodge near Labrador (50/50) Thanksgiving while following shortwaves try to organize a trough near the east coast by next weekend. The latter initially associated clipper low ??may??redevelop far enough south to become a significant impact player in our weather BY next weekend. For the past couple of days modeling has favored early next week (22-23) for a possible rapidly intensifying low pressure system somewhere along the mid Atlantic or New England coast. This event still has many undetermined outcomes (as of this Monday 11/15 writing), with the 12z/Monday Nov 15 EPS favoring wet weather (0.25-1.5" of rain) possibly ending as a period of wet snow or flurries even to the coast late Tue or Wed. That wetter and slightly colder solution is not yet shared by the 12z or 18z/15 GEFS, which has development later and further northeast. The NAEFS QPF is not very robust either. In fact I cant find any ensemble modeling with an 850 LOW south of Massachusetts. However, of interest beyond the probably quiet Thanksgiving day, is the likelihood of a little colder air in place ahead of the next strengthening short wave. Depending on how far south the core of that short wave (VORT MAX) tracks, it could permit coastal development near LI/Cape Cod late Friday. A long shot now, but the NAEFS as of the 12z/15 cycle has a bit more qpf for the NYC forum, especially CT, than for the earlier event. In summary, the bombogenesis near LI shown on recent GFS/EC OP models is of interest but it is not (yet?) the preferred ensembled solution...just a possibility. If it eventually occurs, the tags and title of this thread will update and reflect a much stormier scenario. The potential exists but far too early for me to express confidence (despite the anomalously warm SST's near our coasts that would energize sfc development). I am as interested what might happen next Friday-Saturday, with colder air in place and what at this issuance looks like an ordinary frontal passage, might develop into something with a bit of wintry interest, for the forum. If this becomes a non consideration in a few days, I'll admit it. 545AM/16: Title added HIGH to impact. Changed wind event to Damaging Wind. No other changes at this time. Bombogenesis with associated variable but high impact weather across the subforum. Wraparound snow potential continues for a portion of there subforum. Snow event, at least for the interior seems to be shaping up for the I84 region, sometime between the 26th-28th. Will rereview sometime this evening and again early Wednesday. Potent pattern for one or two travel HIGH impact events NYC subforum Thanksgiving week: Mon-early Wed 11/22-24; & Fri-Sun 11/26-28. 540AM/24: The above was the headline issued on the 15th, having added HIGH to impact and changed wind to damaging wind, Thread now refocuses headline on part TWO 26-28, w possible extension to 29 in the future. Part ONE failed due to modeling leading up to the 15th issuance being too deep aloft, too quick. Ended up further east and we were dry with a chill gusty wind. Tags: dropped heavy rain, and changed damaging wind to wind event. Modeling beginning with the cycles of Tuesday the 23rd have increasingly hinted at a possible wind advisory event for part of the area later Friday into Saturday morning followed by some sort of snow or flurry event Sunday - possibly lingering into Monday. Questionable outcome but we do know the modeling is digging a 3rd strong short wave trough into the northeast USA late this coming weekend. Therefore, while the first on the 23rd didn't produce hazardous weather, the second may generate a bit of a wind event in the wake of the cold frontal passage late this Friday, and the 3rd may allow some sort of coastal low to develop Sunday, departing Monday the 29th. Uncertainty exists.
  23. Well, we are just one season away from winter. Nice to have a respite from the heat this week as the remnants of Ida depart the area. Thoughts and prayers for all of those affected by the hurricane along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall along the far eastern valley has been steady but reasonable - more as you go west I am nearly certain. This morning features light rain/drizzle and very low cloud decks. Lows in the northern valley are supposed to get into the 50s during the next few nights, and that is welcome news! Saw the first evidence of maples beginning to change color this morning. There is this one maple in our neighborhood which always changes first. Some of the dogwoods are beginning to show red in their leaves. Sycamores along the river are showing some yellow. For sure, some of that could be heat stress. Well, it is the first day of meteorological fall. I suspect this season will feature a quick snap to winter time temps late in the season. I am thinking warm early-mid fall, and then a sudden flip to cold. Somebody please fire-up an obs thread and also a banter thread for fall.
  24. Sunday morning 618AM update. Leaving the forecast to the NWS and our forum. Please see attached NWS collaborated and SPC ensemble HREF snowfall. Other models a little less than this, so am a little concerned about melting initially NYC-LI coastal NJ (even rain to start for an hour or so); but it should snow hard for a few hours midday. Seems to have a slightly later start. There will be banding and snow ratios may end up near 12 to 1 nw of I95... and only 10 to 1 NYC east and south. 618A/7 Saturday morning 601A: No significant changes. You've got this. Adding a few graphics 00z/6 SPC HREF snow acc, WPC prob of 2 and 8", NWS collaborated snowfall. Follow NWS forecasts warnings/advisories for details and ourselves. Will add the OBS thread around 7PM tonight (am offline much of the afternoon). Heaviest snowfall rates 10A-3P with decent arced banding near I95. Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. Friday the 5th - 649AM: Little change. Snow is coming and will continue increasing area seasonal snow totals higher (pushing normal or above by the start of the Super Bowl). I haven't checked seasonal normals except what I know for NYC (already above) and our area of nw NJ (at or above). Thinking the 06z/5 NAM may be a bit robust and since the GGEM/RGEM are keeping the bigger snowfall se NJ southward, therefore am reluctant thinking of warning amounts in our subforum, more generally a 1-5", 6-12 hour snowfall North to South. A pleasant refresher on an almost national holiday. Three graphics added on the last page. Thursday Feb 4: 614AM topic update. Have dropped the wind event (45MPH+) and wind chill (-15 Poconos) and narrowed the date range. As many are witnessing, the modeling has been uncertain but always the ensembles have suggested a little bit of snow Sunday. Individual model operational cycles have tended to be nil (exception EC and V16 robust early on) until the 06z/4 GFS V15 and 16. The 06z GEFS has developed an 850MB LO just south of LI and increased qpf dramatically. (graphic added). Noting also other 00z/4 ensemble MINOR increases in QPF and NAEFS indications of rapidly developing low pressure as it passes southeast of our subforum Sunday night. Until the ensembles nix the event, am continuing the snow threat. The 00z/4 MEX MOS was only 14% chance of qpf Sunday, so it's difficult to be sure about an event Sunday. Ensembles suggestion and recent GFS northward trend (uncertain) in my mind require consideration of a general 1-4" snow event Sunday (may be melting on pavement on LI with marginal near freezing temps during any snow). I've kept the 9" max in there, just in case the coastal comes closer but 9" is highly unlikely. We do know it's going to be a vigorous event but its northwest proximity to our area is in doubt. Gusty north-northwest winds may follow Sunday night and it could be quite a bit colder Monday morning (near 14 NYC?) than statistical guidance suggests. No thread on the 9th-10th, if ever) until Super Bowl Sunday is better resolved. Added 06z GEFS 24 hr qpf, as well as a number of plumes for LGA , qpf, snow, 2m temps and 850 temp) ----- From the original issuance on Feb 1. This coming wintry weather event(s) will be dwarfed by the Feb 1-2 near blizzard top 10 (changed from 20 to 10 on 2/2) snow storm. It will probably only have moderate impact upon the NYC forum but reemphasize to our NYC forum members that winter has yet to depart, no matter what the Ground Hog says. Modeling envisions a fast moving coastal low, probably around the 7th. Gusty northwest winds of 40-50 MPH behind the storm later Sunday the 7th or Monday the 8th may usher in the coldest NYC temps of the season (so far 14F) for Tuesday morning the 9th. These sub14F wind driven temps arrive on a west wind which is more difficult to permit the anomalous cold to enter NYC, BUT---more than adequate snow depth NYC westward will permit an easier time of crossing the Appalachians. Wind chill advisories are possible for the I84 region of the nw part of our forum (-15 WCI). The wind and coldest of the season (wind chill advisory as well) are the least certain elements of this topic. Thought it would be good to get this coast to coaster thread going for further discussion, especially after the glow of whatever occurs Feb 1-2, is past. My very early take on accums is 1-9" (necessarily broad due to thread the needle fast moving low and development phase- the idea this would much less than 2/1). Still think we need to be cautious about roof snow loads this first half of February, and of course the SAFE removal of same. The driver is the trough coming into the west coast by late Tuesday Feb 2, that eventually merges with a diving short wave into Great Lakes that makes a negative tilt trough drill into the northeast states by Monday the 8th. There will be more than ample blocking in Canada and the early 850MB anomalies in some of the ensemble modeling are quite impressive. I think this will be a pretty big wintry news maker across the northern USA next weekend-early next week. Monday the 1st: Added the NWS D7 ensemble probability of 3+" of snow and the 00z/1 GFS EP MEX guidance. Tuesday the second added the D6 WPC QPF and their updated ensemble probability of 3+ inches of snow
  25. 548A/17: Advisory situation may be coming to a portion of the forum-not a lock, for the Friday morning commute, despite probable less than official criteria amounts NYC/LI due to sharply falling temps to between 25-30F with sleet to snow in the 5A-8A time frame and gusty n-ne wind of 30-40 MPH. Snow ends sometime late morning-midday with temps recovering above freezing in the afternoon. Wind gusts for a few minutes between midnight and 8A could reach 50 MPH in parts of the area. Added wind event to the thread. Snowfall for NYC-LI T- at most 2", while a bit heavier seems likely I84 corridor extreme nw NJ of 1/2 to possibly 3". Think the best chance for 2+" in our subforum is CT. If the precip ends more abruptly, then we escape the advisory and amounts will be under 1" with the lesser snowfall of the 00z/17 cycle ICON, UKMET, 12K NAM considered. Note: as the transition to snow occurs, the first hour or two may be melting on most surfaces and certainly pack down to snow ratios less than 10 to 1, possibly closer to 7 to 1 or something like that. Some of the modeling has complications not only Friday, but also next Monday. For Friday, there could be two bands of halfway decent accumulative snow, one across I84 and the other just south of I78 across central or s NJ? TBD. Then, next Monday: the 00z/17 EPS and GEPS want to form a deep cyclonic circulation off the mid or south Atlantic coast this weekend and drift it north or northeast early next week, spreading rain back into the area. Depending on latitude of formation, will determine how much warming aloft occurs. ENS have 850 temps in the +3/+4C range next Monday, too warm for snow, provided all the excessive height rises and warming aloft that is modeled in the northeast occurs. If that shifts north, then there is a real long shot (very low chance) we might be looking at some marginal thermal profiles for a bit of wet snow in CT. At this time, I wouldn't be promising mostly clear skies and dry weather for Sunday afternoon-Tuesday morning. Added the 0841z/17 NWS ensemble prob for >1" of snow Friday. You can see the concern for going too heavy. --- Strong cold high pressure approaching Quebec Friday-Saturday will combine with an eastward moving and opening closed low in the Ohio Valley, to permit a period of wet snow here on Friday. Duration and intensity are uncertain along with resultant amounts (T-2"?) and will be related to the proximity of the positive tilt 500MB trough. For now, this could be considered a back-back system, modeled way back as early as the 00z/7th modeling cycle, that could provide as much snow to the parts of the forum, as whatever occurs late 16-17. The fresh influx of colder BL air from the north may even allow measurable snow into NYC? Most of the modeling favors a few hours of snow Friday morning with marginal accretion temps. Still, for an event at the tail end of winter for NYC, it could provide a little fun? This especially if the GEPS-NAEFS solutions of keeping the low close enough to continue significant qpf going into early Saturday. Then we would be talking about some potentially plowable snow to near NYC, but this is an outlier possibility for now and best at this time (D5) to favor conservative ,minor impact, at worst. Finally, if this storm system does hang around nearby to our south all weekend (low chance), it might make a northward drift into the CT/LI part of the forum Monday the 22nd, but by that time, the snow temp profiles have warmed to rain (probably exhausted the snow profile cold air supply).
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