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Found 133 results

  1. First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
  2. Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  3. The month of December is almost upon us so we figured it was time to create a December winter thread. Looks like it could be a cold month with possible time frames that may support good conditions for winter storms. Let the breakdown begin! BTW Go VOLS today, #beatmizzou
  4. Rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, regional climate, jet stream, La Niña, El Niño, polar vortex, ice pack, ETC. anything that can have an affect on the two seasons in question is up for analysis and debate. Our forum is one of the best at informing and teaching people as well as conversing with friends. Let’s try to keep that going with this thread, and don’t forget a lot of people come to our threads just to learn. As we have some very talented professional and novice Mets on our board. Let the speculation begin!
  5. Carvers Gap

    Fall Observations 2018

    I just realized that we need an observation thread for Fall. With the remnants of Flo approaching, though it might not be a bad idea to get the Fall obs thread rolling. What is left of Florence looks like it might be a rainmaker(within norms) for the eastern Valley. Wind advisories are hoisted for the mountains. Western NC is under a flood watch. Rivers that flow from NC such as the French Broad and Nolichucky may flood in TN due to rain in North Carolina.
  6. Cold Miser

    Winter 2017/2018 Wrap-Up Thread

    As Wiz prepares himself for the ever-so-angry servere season here in Connecticut it is time to reflect on the winter that was. ...A winter that ended up giving much more bang for the buck than expected, and even though just about all of February was nonexistent for many with regard to decent snow. Remarkable is a pretty good way to describe how March and April played out for many. Some of us had more snow fall in April than February. I think my mid-winter grade was D/C as I prepared to chain the snow blower to my leg and drop myself into the ice jammed river. The grades (all items are equally weighted) Overall Seasonal Snowfall: A+ Well above average snow fell. Snow vs. Rain: B As soon as March and April rolled around it was easy to forget how ****ty February was, including the rain…But it was there and it can’t be discounted. I expect rain in April and March but not so much in January/ February. Staying power of the pack: C This was just not a long term pack kind of winter at least in my neck of the woods. Local winter enjoyment: B Many times this would go hand in hand with the snow pack, but due to the big freeze up in December/ January, there were some good days for ice walks as well as a few snow shoe days. Temperature: B+ Even though it seemed like the rain would never end at times, there were plenty of cold days on hand to make it feel like winter, especially the first and last 3rd of the season. Snow Storm Quality: A- There was some pretty good storms this year, including 2 double digit beauties. There were many storms timed just right for morning or evening rush hour as well, and overnight storms which I like to see. Plus a Christmas morning snow. Overall Grade: B+ A better February would have made this a champion winter. I know that people like to use either meteorological winter or calendar winter as their guide to the beginning and end of the season, but I let the season be more fluent than that. About 20” of my snow (yes, it was MY snow) fell before the calendar said it was winter and after spring began. The real question is...Is it over? Will some see a late...LATE season paste bomb over the coming weeks?
  7. 38/30 14-18' hopefully
  8. Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
  9. AMZ8990

    Winter Banter 2017/18

    Since we've have had our first freeze of the season, I figured I would start a winter banter thread. Take anything you see and read in this thread with a giant grain of salt. Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.
  10. TauntonBlizzard2013

    Late Saturday 3/24 - Sunday 3/25 Light Event

    Some models have a bit of light snow activity moving through the area overnight into Sunday. Mainly focused towards the eastern portion of the area. Hi res RGEM looks like it would drop a general 1-2” down into eastern ma
  11. Carvers Gap

    2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
  12. All modeling pointing to a drastic one day flip from 70s to a frozen sleet,ice,snow event across CNE SNE. Not a big event but more notable for the quick sensible weather change. Depending on timing and intensity could be a commuter issue. Cold lower levels with a warm tongue at 775 825 level will cause sleet and mangled snow but some areas deep in the cold could pick up 2 to 3 of post 70 degree snow.
  13. The models have been extremely consistent with this and have taken it from 240-252 hours out to now 126 hours out until the Western forum begins feeling the effects. Tonight's model suite features heavy snow for a large portion of the forum on all models. The GFS brings this per the 1-28 00Z. The GFS has been consistent with heavier snow north of 40 on nearly every run for 5 days in a row. Quite a few of these runs sees a nice bit of accumulation well south of 40 as well. The Canadian was late to the party and is still waffling around. It painted the entire region almost with heavy snow during it's 1-27 runs. Today it moved the snow axis very far north at 12z, the 00z quickly brought it back, this time west of the Plateau and north of 40. The Euro has been pretty consistent with this as well. It actually moved towards the GFS a few days ago and for the most part has held to it's solution for several days as well. Tonight's 00z run was it's most robust into Tennessee in several runs.
  14. I could see how Cape Cod could end up with more snow from both systems than say Springfield MA if the coastal storm on Wednesday takes a more southeasterly path
  15. Cold air has entered the forum and the winter weather should be getting into the western forum area soon.
  16. Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.
  17. Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
  18. My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense. These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce. For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area. Stay tuned!
  19. Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough for consistent band developing as we transition into a clipper low for the next few days. Big storm potential if the clipper low slows down its movement like the latest 12z guidance suggests at H5 with the low developing and closing off the H5 flow over the Northeast US. This will prolong the snow chances from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon for overall snow chances. Stay tuned!
  20. Baroclinic Zone

    Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

    Models today are converging on a storm impacting the Northeast. Details are still to be ironed out but we look to have a highly anomalous modeled storm coming out of the Gulf that pass somewhere off the coast of New England. The modeled SLP is pretty low for a winter storm (sub 960mb) so while the main storm center may pass well offshore, there should be a pretty expansive western edge to the precipitation field. One other feature that models seem to be picking up upon is a strong low level convergence between the primary low and ULL over the GL. This is likely what is allowing for the further offshore track to still throwback moisture so far removed from the center of circulation.
  21. I figure we could use a separate thread to discuss this, since it doesn’t belong in the 1/3 thread and doesn’t belong in the banter thread. Some areas of central AL/GA and maybe S SC could get in on some light wintry precip tonight. It shouldn’t be a big deal, but these areas don’t get wintry precip everyday, either, so it’s something to watch.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    Mid Week Mishief

    Models are useless at this range with all of the little disturbances in the flow, with the flow off the East Coast more SW to NE clouds are developing over DE and Wash DC area heading NNEward right now, if one of these disturbances veer the flow more sw to NE we could get clipped by ocean storms developing in the flow, I think one these systems will turn the winds over the ocean and over Cape Cod to the North sometime late Wednesday night into early Friday morning before the real storm synoptic snows begin Friday afternoon. NWS speaks lightly of this potential as well and the HPC keeps SNE in the snow from Day 5 to day 7. Could this mid week becomes something special? I think so. NAM depiction in this topic is showing more energy in the southern stream phasing with the northern stream that digs out of Southern Canada then the 18z GFS at the same time frame. New runs coming in now will shed light on this system just 48 hours out
  23. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark

    Snowy Holiday GTG 2017

    Snowy Holiday GTG 2017
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