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About Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    For my part I'm even less enthused with whatever snow potential there was for my local area (not much to begin with). I am interested in severe potential tomorrow. Will still take a few flakes if it I can get em, but trends over the past couple of days seems to be worse for central and southern locations in the eastern valley. It's still a potentially dynamic upper low, so maybe some surprises (for me a burst of snow for 10 minutes would count). In terms of storms tomorrow the 12z RGEM looks rather aggressive for TN and later for N. Georgia and I feel like it was the most conservative with its early depiction of convection yesterday (3/17). I cold also be comparing apples to oranges in trying to compare its depiction of convection to the NAMs. (only looking at the MSLP and precip maps). Hi-Res models seem to show some early cells racing ahead and eventual consolidation into a line. Hoping for a line by the time it gets across the plateau as those situations seem to be less damaging in my experience in that there seems to be less of a chance for an isolated tornado.
  2. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Ask and ye shall receive:
  3. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Evening sunset spectacularness added:
  4. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Randomly was in Bristol/ Abingdon area today and managed to get a photo of a storm to my north in the distance as it went severe at approx. 330 - 4 PM (photo 1). On my way back to Knoxville another smaller storm developed right over downtown Knoxville and I was able to get a photo of it as well! (630ish) (photo 2).
  5. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    EPS agrees with the operational in that there is a big 500mb trough over the eastern US around next Wednesday, but there seems to me to be a wide spread in the individual placements of multiple pieces of energy at 500 mb in that trough across the EPS members. If you thought the last one looked complicated (not the nice NW flow event, but the long suffering storm track we consummated last week) you ain't seen nothing yet. GEFS and GEPS 500 mb geopotential height means seem to agree with EPS means. I'm just too lazy and worn out right now to dig much deeper in these other ensembles' individual members, but the ops show a wide spread of energy pieces across the eastern US. I have included an image of the GFS of 500 mb relative vorticity at the beginning of the evolution of this storm just to illustrate how much energy (numbers 1-6) is rotating and interacting. I know most of you know how to read this, but there maybe someone lurking here like I did who might like to see what I'm talking about. Also, I don't necessarily favor the GFS here, but just want to show how complicated all this is. "Just in time..." as Jeff has said is not good for lower elevations and southern areas even in mid winter. What a weird set up though! All major models have primary surface low below 1000mb meandering across the TN Valley and then dying in southern WV as it transfers to the coast. That would always scream to me (in every situation I can think of aside from there being an exceedingly cold antecedent air mass in place) horrible set up for any type of winter weather in our area. I think it looks really complicated and marginal for areas outside of maybe 2000 feet and up and especially southern areas. And that's if it works out at a 5 day lead as it has been modeled over the past couple of days. Bottom line for me: At this point I'm burnt out for winter, but I thought I'd give it a day yesterday and see how things began to break. Not in any way hopeful for any type of winter in my neck of the woods, but wouldn't mind a flake or two if its going to be cloudy and cool. It also seems like such an unusual evolution for a storm if it occurs, that it might turn out to have a surprise or two for someone at elevation and NE as most of these upper lows seem to have lately, even if it doesn't have one for me. Complicated and difficult things interest me, and the whole evolution just seems that way to me. High fail potential, even if it is just for a 500 mb setup = high learning potential. Also there seems to be some talk in some of the other subforums that this may be a bigger storm further north that helps boot out the -NAO and usher in a more significant pattern change. I think we can all get behind that at this point. By the by John, I do not mean this as a direct response to anything you've posted. My interest has been piqued though, so these are just my overall thoughts on the set up.
  6. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Found this from a twitter account I follow and I thought I'd throw it in here for posterity (Site: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/ ) Sorry should have said this is a seasonal snowfall map to date: (9/17 - 3/14/18)
  7. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Congratulations to all who got some nice snow! For some of the pictures I've seen it looks like it will be one of those really pretty snows that has stuck to everything once the sun rises. Going back and looking at GOES 16 Longwave IR, the little shortwave looked impressive as it moved through.
  8. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Really fun to watch the upper level disturbance move in, in real time from the ground. Went out for a run around the neighborhood around 5 PM and saw a dramatic change in the clouds from beginning to end of the run. Clouds went from plain old cumulus, to starting to line up in what seemed to be streets and I could see the snow falling, but not reaching the ground! One of the hill tops I run to has views of the Smokies and they looked downright snowy already! Decided to check GOES 16 a few minutes ago and sure enough the cloud streets were showing up as the upper low moved in! Maybe I'm a little too weird but it was fun to be thinking about the mid and upper levles and how they effect what we see and then actually then see it happen.
  9. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    I don't know how much moisture will be left by tomorrow around 7 AM, but a 18z, NAM 3k sounding over SW VA (from Tropical Tidbits) is showing a DGZ between 850 and 950 mb, but an associated dry layer. Sounds pretty low though and maybe able to squeeze that last bit of moisture out for NE sections.
  10. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Definitely looked ominous up that way from Knoxville. Clouds were lowering, rolling, and darkening.
  11. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Looking at the EPS at 240, one thing that intrigues me is that the renewed -NAO (if it verifies) seems to be a slightly different critter than the one we just saw. The recent one was driven by the strat and seemed to retrograde as part of a general pattern across the North Atlantic. While it was very strong, if I remember correctly it also was limited to northern latitudes for most of its life cycle. (See my image on page 79 of the Winter Speculation Thread for the recent -NAO) This one seems to have more of a equator-ward connection. At this point not really chasing any snow, but more interested in storm track for future winters. Does the type of NAO have a correlation to a storm track? If there were a fuller latitude Atlantic block, does it change things up as it weakens? If we can get something like what the 10 day EPS shows, let's see.
  12. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Nice! I think that is as good a way to ring out this winter as any!
  13. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    3k NAM and RGEM are bullish with these snow showers and both want to show them coming in overnight which will probably help the areas normally favored. I've been surprised in Knoxville a few times by a good overnight snow shower (a decent dusting). Energy looks nice and the fetch is from lake Superior onto Lake Michigan and then SSE.
  14. Winter Banter 2017/18

    The MA folks have given up and finally created a 10 day out storm thread. After the past few weeks I need a breather. Where's my 590+ Feb. Death Ridge when I want to see it again? I'm game for a reload, bowling balls, and some high elevation snows, but let's get a touch of spring again for a bit!
  15. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts Nice photos from atop Le Conte. In addition to Stovepipe's camper, apparently the Le Conte seasonal supply helicopter is an indicator for snow.