Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. @Mr. Kevin There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr): https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967 Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT. Also see:
  2. This evening's GEFS run, brought to you by member 4: Always remember, to never forget, member 4...
  3. Control looks like it would have been a beast, but don't have the individual members yet, outside of UL winds: Looks like the 850 circulation was a little too far north for many of use though: Might not be too bad though from NE Arkansas and NW TN up the Ohio valley
  4. Can't comment much or make a gif right now, but to my eyes at least, the Euro was close to some the bigger solutions the GFS has been throwing out with its energy at H5.
  5. Not sure what wiggle room you have, but if it was me and no concerns about the time, I'd wait until it gets into the Mesoscale models' range. Just don't believe the 3km NAM when it dumps 40 inches on Leconte, lol. Like Carver's said it is a touchy setup and still time for it to go either way. The folks over in the Foothills and Mts SE forum still seem keen on it.
  6. UKMET still looks upslopey and even had a little bit of Gulf moisture snow at the very end: Magical new CMC look like it might have been heading somewhere after 240 hours, but otherwise, same old pattern.
  7. Maybe this will add some excitement to an otherwise blahhh model day: Does this mean we get a new CMC at 12z today?
  8. OP Euro was pretty bad at 240 too.: A zonal look in mid to northern Canada. Without that big upper low in the plains, you'd have a subtropical ridge across the whole CONUS, lol. The Control evolves that look to some ridging over AK. EPS looks like it is split between some members keeping the TPV over AK and some members seeing the ridging. Actually some convection around the dateline, but north, this AM: The Indian ocean looks about the same, but there is a critter of some kind creeping west from around Sri Lanka: Meanwhile the SPV looks stout and only getting stouter: But all the cold air is on our side of the globe at the end of the EPS: No sloshing needed! And it'll all look different in 12 hours, lol.
  9. Member 16 of the GEFS had a little 93, with snow from Louisiana north and east.
  10. One thing I noticed on that OP run was that the Hudson Bay ridge really, really wanted to retrograde to Alaska, but the PV piece there kept it locked in. Maybe this AAM spike is trying to force that HL blocking for a typical Nino look and the PV piece is just locking it in there? I sped it (only hours 72 -204) up so it seems more apparent:
  11. For some reason tropical Tidbits is running slow, so used Pivotal: