Holston_River_Rambler
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Glad y'all are getting some rain out that way, but wish it wasn't all at once. Fun swirl on radar over East TN this AM: https://imgur.com/a/S5r5GwY
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Desperation has set in for cooler weather. I'll share this to see what y'all think. Kind of aligns with what we have been saying, but as Flash points out, Typhoons can shake things up either way. Cranky isn't always right, but I really like his discussions of the overall flow in this type of map (cropped only parts that have to do with us): Maybe I'm just getting too desperate. Source:http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e092418.htm
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Seeing some reports of flash flooding toward Middle TN on twitter:
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Ok, I think we finally have the a good trajectory for the eastern great valley: https://imgur.com/a/VlJ1UbS (end of the loop) Also, an image indicating what I was trying to figure out in the Florence thread. Sure it could be just a random band, but consider what the precip. is doing in Monroe county and southward as the loop goes on... At this time, the 850 low looks to be over or near Hartwell, GA. I know this is kinda random and rather insignificant stuff for now, but curious for implications for the flow for future winter storms. 925mb flow, right down the valley:
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In Crab Orchard/ Cumberland mountains in Cumberland County, looking SE across the great eastern TN valley towards Flo rolling in across the Smokies. Nice, fresh, almost sea breeze out of the NE and Ozone Falls
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Hurricane Florence Discussion Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I've been wondering too, if the center can track just right, if the downsloping might be offset by a perfect trajectory out of the NE, down the valley. It would still be an overall downslope flow, but the plateau and Smokies funneling that flow could force it to narrow and change speed and maybe create some lift that way. Not saying anything even approaching what places east of Blue Ridge will see, but might offset the overall downslope if the flow gets just right. I've noticed that sometimes as snowstorms are heading up the coast, that precip. can hang around in the central, great eastern valley and areas NE, longer than it seems like it should and have wondered why this might be. A Met. in the bigger Flo thread mentioned frictional convergence this AM and while this is not the same process at all, it got me thinking about how the valley/ mountains might impact flow/ speed/ trajectory and shape meso/ microscale convergence or divergence. An example: South of where the Crab Orchard Mountains/ Frozen Head bulge out from the Cumberland Plateau, the angle of the plateau's edge in respect to the valley then plunges slightly more S than the edge of the Smokies, and maybe this forces some of the air a little eastward, pushing it into the rest of the flow still heading more SW down the valley. (Image 1) None of this may apply at all here, since the overall motion of the storm looks to be WNW changing to N with time, as opposed to the usual SW to NE, but will definitely be trying to watch radar to look for any of the above. On the satellite today I did notice something along these lines, at least with clouds: (Image 2) Although it looks like it invalidates my reading of the southern valley in aiding convergence. Maybe the flow is more across the mountains in the southern, eastern valley (thus more downsloping) with a NE flow and the more subtle processes can only aid lift further north where the downsloping is less, since the flow isn't directly across the Smokies, but roughly down I-81?- 17 replies
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Spring/Summer 2018 Observations
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Throwing this in for posterity: https://imgur.com/a/D1kdwFm Nice example of storms developing in the mountains and rolling into the valley following outflow boundaries.- 231 replies
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Operational GFS, GEFS, EPS (39/50 members), GEPS showing a breakdown of Ridge o' Doom by late month. Still a ways off, but...let there be hope! Maybe the long awaited retrograde finally happens.
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I found this site which does have an "experimental analogue track" section in a drop down menu for current storms or areas of potential development, but not sure if this is what you meant. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/
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I'm glad for us in east TN and especially SW NC that the southern Apps aren't in the right quadrant of this sucker. If it was sitting and spinning, even for 24 hours, over let's say Atlanta, I can't even imagine what upslope on the NC Blue Ridge would do. Unfortunately VA Blue Ridge further north may find out if the Euro is right. What a high pressure ridge! I can't remember (I am relatively young though) any hurricane on this trajectory stopping or dying in the Carolinas or VA. Even the rare analogues that the twitterverse has been tossing out at least moved along. The best analogy I can think of when watching the upper level flow, is looking at a river, where a shoal or log sticks into the current. Sometimes where the current rushes as it's forced by the object, there's an area inland from that point where the water sort of sits still or moves in unexpected ways, so that it if you run out of the current into the still water with a boat, you can sometimes just sit still and fish, with no anchor. Here I see the jet over Canada and northern US as the faster current and the high pressure ridge as the calm. I feel like it's kind of a wait and see mode at this point and we won't know if the "stall out" solution is right or wrong until she rolls inland. All I can see as difference makers are the exact strength of the ridge and it's axis. Looking at upper level potential vorticity on GFS ( https://imgur.com/a/YigeivZ ) there does seem to be a little bit of cyclonic vorticity that fujiwaras it inland a little bit, but that's all I can see. The Euro I have access to has a 300mb potential vorticity, but I'm not sure the two maps show exactly the same thing. It does look quite a bit different. Euro image:
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Spring/Summer 2018 Observations
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Backpacking overnighter from White Rocks, near Ewing, VA, back to Wilderness Road campground near Cumberland Gap. Late summer = a variety of conditions. Hot and muggy climbing up to White Rocks, but almost cool overnight near the Hensley Settlement. Rain early in the AM and then a dense fog settling over the ridge top. Fog + trees starting to lose leaves + those big spider webs we've all probably seen this time of year = Fall like feel on top, but still very much summer in the Powell Valley.- 231 replies
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How amazing would this phase be in winter??? https://imgur.com/a/BU2R83t Also, check out the crazy loop Florence is doing on the FV3 experimental GFS: https://imgur.com/a/KdQZjCD
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Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am 100% on board the recurve to bring down cooler air train! I've been hoping this hurricane, or a possible next one further south (if one materializes), could do something about the prognosis for the next month.- 294 replies
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Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
So what do we think about Florence at this point? It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under. The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits). If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first... More heat = sad face- 294 replies
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Spring/Summer 2018 Observations
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hiked up to Rocky Top and Thunderhead Mts. today. Got a video of the elusive terrain driven convection as it formed. SE flow above, but at the ridgetop, the upward motion was awesome. https://imgur.com/a/VUoIpKf Some nice leaf action beginning as well. Taste of Fall above 5000 ft.- 231 replies
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