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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. I wonder if the suprema la nina look on the long range GFS is partially caused by the big convective flare up in perhaps one of the worst places for us to see it. This is a gif of the sat. imagery over the SW Pac over the past 5 days: I wish I could make it go a little slower, but not sure how to adjust speed on giphy. Notice at the beginning there was very little south of Vietnam and Laos, but some pretty good flare ups recently. I think the flare up over N. Australia that drifts east towards the areas E and SE of New Guinea is associated with the MJO movement into the west Pac, but as seems typical of La Nina, it all get shunted SE. That convection created a big rise and now a big drop (but not to negative numbers yet) in the SOI. In the past 7 days it has gone from approx. -4, up to 30, and now back to 15. Interestingly, the overall 30 average of the SOI has been lowering: I guess that's a lot of huffing and puffing just to talk myself into waiting to see what happens once the block gets established and give the tropical convection some time to keep working itself out. I think the long range OP model runs can, for the continental US pattern, be really dependent on how the tropical Pacific looks for any given run's initialization. Even if it does just turn into our typical la Nina, think of the poor flooding rains we missed out on last year! We could get started on those early this year to help with drought striken areas! Even the WPC gives a 5-7" total over the next 168 hours near MBY:
  2. Well, since y'all have brought up the Nature signs... Birds and squirrels have been behaving like the winter of all winters is coming to us on the plateau. I actually thought about trying to get a picture of them around my house, but never got around to it.
  3. And of course now that the MJO is getting into the western Pac all that nice convection from two weeks ago (that it might have helped enhance) has died out, lol Although there is some south of Hawaii and east of Central America.
  4. The 6z GFS shows what could be a downright magical pattern evolution. Not saying this going to happen, but I guess it is at least on the table. Imagine what would happen if the NAO block trapped a vort under it in a massive rex block on a continental scale: And then it retrograded west enough to keep us on the NW edge of a upper level SW flow, while maintaining cold air:
  5. One of the interesting things about the strat PV disruption is that I think it is 100% related to this NAO block (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg in this case though). However, long range strat PV is showing another sort of SPV evolution that might result in a warming and not just a split: GFS Euro: I think what we are looking at in the medium/ shorter range is more like what happened in 2018 when we had the nice blocking in March after the strat split or warming (can't remember which) in late Feb. the gifs above would be like more recent SSWs but they're pretty far out in 300+ hr "magical retrograding snowstorm on the 18z GFS" land, so who knows. It's such and awesome block, I hope someone one in the eastern half of the US gets hammered at some point. With such a big NAO, you might think we would be looking at an Archambault event as the block eventually breaks down. That is a summary of the nature of the events from the page below and was written in regards to a different event. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html I think these are the publications if anyone is interested. I may dig into one later when I have more time:
  6. GFS and Euro wanting to show a bit of a split of the SPV. Looks like there is probably some relationship with the -NAO ridge developing. Euro: GFS: Here is the 3D model from the 0z GFS run last night:
  7. In fact, we might want to go ahead and clear janetjanet a place off at the TN Valley weather table: There's that La Nina firehose we all know and love!
  8. I don't know, I still think the MJO did a pretty good job delivering cold air here, even with the 8-1-2 in the COD. I DO think the horrible Pac on the long range Ops and Ens. has been impacted by where the MJO is now and has been for the past few days. Yuck: On the other hand Satellite looks kind of meh to me. I've seen much worse looks. I'm kind of surprised it registers this as a medium amplitude 7. It would be nice if we can get this NAO block to hold out long enough for whatever the MJO pass gets back to whatever produced this most recent cold snap and the one week long on in October. It was pretty stout. Wiped out + anomalies for the western part of the state and almost did it in the east: Now if we get through the next week and a half to two weeks and the Pac still looks awful on day 10+ or so modeling, Nina for the loss!
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