Holston_River_Rambler
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
MJO is trying to come back around to the dreaded (at least by me) Maritime Continent. There's naught we can do. I say let it do its thing. Maybe? 2-3 cutters, lay the snowpack down in the Midwest and pump up the -NAO. Still gives us 4-6 weeks. Progression weaker in amplitude, faster in progress, and hopefully no more ill-timed coronal holes. Tropical tropopause looks warmer as the SSW is ending, leading to somewhat lower lapse rates and weaker convection, if some of the hypotheses postulated in Dec were correct. Fortune favors the Masiello: I hope... -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
konfuzion. I haz it: -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not going to waste a bunch of time or graphics on this since it is a long shot, but there was a (admittedly one run) trend on the Euro to have more separation between the N and S stream for this weekend, thus allowing the possibility of a more progressive (south) solution. Interestingly the 12z UKMET was much further south and showed similar separation. What the heck, can't resist a good gif: UKMET, H5: 0z and the 12z Euro, same but vorts to show the separation and trend to be more separate until east of our longitude: Maybe something for western areas to keep an eye on? Maybe something to get drawn back into for no reason? You be the judge. Disclaimer: Stole this idea from another forum/ region, but thought I'd pass it on. -
Winter 2018-2019 Observations
Holston_River_Rambler replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thank you for that image -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
And look, just to be clear, I'm not saying we're going to have the most epic of all epic storms soon, I'm just saying that the pattern, as is currently modeled to evolve, is about all we could ask for. -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
No joke! It's like all the low clouds in E North America come to E TN to die. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
EPS 10+ day -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thought it might be worth a look to go back to the composites I made last Feb while we were awaiting the pattern change then: Originally posted in the Historic Winter Storms thread last February: So this AM I thought it might be fun to add to the above image by looking at how we got to those dates. We often see analogues for the date of a particular storm, but not the weeks before and if many storms come at the end of major blocking, it might be a good idea to check out how things looked before. Below are the images for one week (top) and then two weeks (bottom) before the events above. It seems to me the NAO snaps and holds the ball while the Pacific finally kicks it. Looking at the composite for where we were last year, the Pac was quite a bit different then: Then I did a 500 mb composite one week before our best storms (for the above I used specific dates supplied by John, for the below I just went through the KU book and looked for anything that looked good: -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
And, let's take a moment to pay our respects to a pitiful, low level circulation in E. KY coming here to die: Also, what in the world happened to the low cloud deck in N. central AR? -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Here is a magical selection of EPS 45 day snowfall maps. There were more that looked good, but these seemed the best board wide to me. And then one not so good at the end to balance it all out. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Isotherm update for those interested. Mostly focused on northeast, but some good info for the pattern overall: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-more-technical-discussion/?page=31&tab=comments#comment-121244 Cherry-picked tidbit, for your perusal: "Polar cap ozone reached record high levels recently, which is a pertinent proxy for BDC intensity and a strong precursor signal for anomalous high latitude blocking. Once the anomalous high latitude blocking accelerates in the troposphere, it should remain for a minimum of 30 days, potentially up to 45-50 days [which would take us into the first half of March]." -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
For your browsing pleasure (or pain): -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Best looking 10 -15 day GEFS ensemble mean yet: 3'' mean line into N. Louisiana -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sorry if my posts have been too bantery tonight, but I'm here right now: I believe...........
