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About Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Not sure. Jet looks not so hot for severe, if that look were to pan out: Long range is starting to show reinforcement to the -NAO with another half #%$^% split and warming in the strat, so I'd be willing to bet, at least through mid Feb. it might be hard to get anything to amplify, unless that NAO relaxes a bit for a time.
  2. I mean, what even is that convection south of Baja? It's the healthiest blob of convection near the tropics in the N Hemisphere right now: Some of that in the MC, N of the equator is close, but even compared to yesterday the MC looks comparatively quiet. Indian Ocean looks dead, at least N of the equator.
  3. Overnight Ensembles cause heh, it's been a while: EPS GEFS: GEPS Some of the individual storms on the OP GFS kind of remind me of the year Boston got like a trillion inches of snow, whichever year that was. Now, I 100% admit I don't entirely remember what that pattern was, but there were some late bloomers off of the NE coast on the 6z GFS. I was about to look at the tropics again, but saw this on satellite: Just gonna throw out there that whatever that is south of Baja, is probably not good for those, like me, who don't want a ton of rain next week. Now, if you want more rain, that looks promising. Hopefully the NAO can shear it out or help keep it suppressed.
  4. We want it suppressed to Cuba at this point, right? Not sure how the para does with suppressed storms...lol
  5. I'm happy for the MA folks. It seems like they've had it worse than we have. Honestly nice to at least see some CAD patterns showing up. If they can break their drought, maybe it bodes well for others. You NE TN and SW VA folks might get in on one of these too.
  6. Happy hour GFS is going to deliver the goods today. Digital snow incoming past hour 300. In a McDonalds bag.
  7. If I'm whipping out Roundy's 45 day plots, we gotta take what we can get, lol. The Euro says it's happening for NE sections:
  8. Roundy's experimental projections haven't done too poorly this year: If that pans out, it looks like we eventually settle back in to a much colder pattern with an EPO ridge and an eastern trough by mid - late Feb.
  9. Some of the convection in the Maritime continent is starting to percolate eastward, closer to 150 than 120 east: Maybe the models will start to look up even more soon, if it cam make it between 150 and 180 Either way, it looks like it has weakened some. Here's where we were at a few weeks ago (not necessarily weaker, just further west):