Jump to content

Search the Community

Showing results for tags 'severe storms'.

  • Search By Tags

    Type tags separated by commas.
  • Search By Author

Content Type


  • The Company Blog
  • Tropospheric Torrent
  • wxbrad's Blog
  • thunderman's Blog
  • Quincy's Blog
  • Ellinwood's Weather Blog
  • Once a legend always a legend
  • Weathertalkblog
  • everyhinks
  • Windy Fashion
  • Save up to 50%
  • Snowfall Updates and Forecasts 2019-2020 and beyond!
  • Dry vs. Wet Halloween Weather
  • Next Winter Storm in the North Plains and Great Lakes
  • More Snow in the Northern United States
  • Winter Precipitation in the Southern Rockies vs Dry conditions in the Eastern States
  • Heavy showers in the southern to central plains moving towards the northeast on Tuesday with mild weather conditions in the northeast early this week
  • Southern New England Winter 2020-2021 Blog
  • thomp2mp
  • Jett Pitman
  • Virginia tobacco as the main tobacco for production


  • Board Headquarters
  • Tropical Weather Discussion
    • Tropical Headquarters
  • General Forecasting and Discussion
    • Weather Forecasting and Discussion
    • Climate Change
    • Outdoor and Weather Photography
    • Weather Marketplace
    • Meteorology 101
    • Blogs
  • Regional Weather Discussion
    • New England
    • Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
    • New York City Metro
    • Philadelphia Region
    • Mid Atlantic
    • Southeastern States
    • Tennessee Valley
    • Lakes/Ohio Valley
    • Central/Western States


  • General Analyses & Forecasts
    • Seasonal Forecasts
    • Winter Analysis
    • Tropical Analysis
    • Severe Weather
  • Miscellaneous

Product Groups

  • Upgrade Packages
    • Individual Packages

Find results in...

Find results that contain...

Date Created

  • Start


Last Updated

  • Start


Filter by number of...


  • Start




Website URL



Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)



Home Location

Found 7 results

  1. Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight. Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR? Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday. Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed.
  2. Please follow NWS (SPC/local offices) for additional information on the late Thursday afternoon-evening SVR threat. Confidence on SVR late today is less than a CAA wind event for late Friday. Used HRRR/EC/3KNAM for main guidance, Richardson # projects strongest wind transfer of a descending jet Friday evening, after sunset. Whether that occurs? However lapse rates do increase substantially with the arrival of the cold pool aloft allowing opportunity for damaging wind gusts late Fri-Fri eve. No time for graphics-please follow up as you think best. This thread should serve as the thread for any damage reports.
  3. Topic posted as a cover for the possibilities but this, as of 611AM Tuesday does not look like w widespread SVR or FF event. Please see SPC D1 Marginal Risk and followup's, as well as local NWS discussions, statements and any warnings plus our own American Weather interpretations and observations of any significant storms. Enough CAPE/KI/marginal wind aloft for a couple of clusters of strong storms. Don't like the 850 westerly flow for lots of svr, and the trough appears too close for too much SVR organization. Best chance for se NYS-nw NJ, 1P-7P. Best for s CT/LI/NYC, ne NJ and s of I80 later...3P-9P, then again midnight-5AM. This secondary late night increase is when it may be most favorable for an outbreak of heavy convection and several hours of training with embedded isolated SVR/FF and estimating best location IF this is to occur, would be anywhere on Long Island overnight. (noting several models with much increased convections overnight but mostly s NJ eastward. Could be more interesting up here on LI near the leftover boundary). I wont be updating anything on this topic between 8A-330P. Hope this produces something of interest.
  4. Modeling looks terribly slow and ineffective for two bands of convection this evening in NYS/PA. Running much faster. If this is true... parts of our NYC forum, at least se NYS and nw NJ are going to experience a brief heavy shower or gusty thunderstorm between 815PM and midnight and possibly again near 2AM Monday. That leaves us with what for Monday afternoon? I think a pretty ripe environment for big storms maybe even up just N of I80...with interestingly large mid level lapse rates, especially I78 south. Not promising big stuff near NYC but it seems to me modeling (not SPC - check their Marginal D2) is missing potential svr/ff, especially southern part of our forum Monday afternoon 2P-7P. Will rereview how things are going Monday morning around 7A, but for now... it looks like big heat has generated big storms Sunday evening just west of the forum and I think very poorly modeled. If someone has seen a model that is performing admirably in PA/NYS to the Poconos and Catskills, please let us know. 735P/19
  5. Good Wednesday morning everyone, Unsure whether this will happen but mass field signals seem to me to flag potential for one or two bands of svr storms racing east in strong low level WAA (and moist too-CAPE, and KI modeled going way up). Early max gust signal of 40+ knot in the EC for 5 consecutive cycles upstate NY and far northwest PA toward 00z/Sunday the 27th. So, I'll just wait this out... see what happens (see if EC is too robust?). 00z/24 GEFS and EPS similar on wind fields 850, 500mb. You're welcome to add on and I'll post the SPC SVR reports image, Sunday the 27th, after 12z. It's possible the heat here on Saturday (90-95F non marine influenced) could be minimized if the storms arrive too soon, but my guess, per modeling seen early this Wednesday June 24, is that the SVR event would occur (IF??) in our area between 6P Saturday and 4A Sunday. If you wish to see any graphics I've referenced, let me know. I may not reply immediately.
  6. If there can be one for snow and ice, let's do one for severe too. 4/27/2011 the only time I've ever been scared of severe storms https://twitter.com/NWSGSP/status/989873085330477057 Added another map since some of the paths were hard to see. Feel like this one gives a better idea of the size of the outbreak and this is only from one day!
  7. For the Tuesday update I would lift the slight into West Kentucky and get the ENH into northern Mississippi - perhaps Memphis. Warm front WF will probably get into West Tenn. Might make it to West Ky. Severe parameters including a screaming low level jet will augment the squall line from the WF south. Upper winds may be less backed than forecast if a lead wave can eject ahead of the bowling ball. A couple leading edge tornadoes would not surprise me. Unfortunately it may be after dark east of the Mississippi River. I'm expecting several to numerous damaging straight line reports, esp if some line echo wave patterns LEWPs can establish. Looks like a set-up favorable to LEWPs esp after dark. Good news farther east is relatively more stable air should keep Alabama, Mid and East Tennessee safe.
  • Create New...