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Found 6 results

  1. Good Thursday morning, Decided to start a combined topic covering Saturday night, Sunday afternoon and the uncertain impact of ISAIAS this coming Monday-Tuesday. ISAIAS has track uncertainties until everything gets re-organized Friday. Thereafter, I think the EPS/GEFS should nail whether or not tropical storm conditions can impact the coasts. Follow NHC guidance and the contributions from American Weather tropical experts. One reason for uncertainty; I see multiple 00z/30 ensembles showing the northern bounds of heavy rainfall not too far north of our NYC forum which suggests, at this distant date, that a hard right turn of ISAIAS could yet occur that would spare us more than a dangerous rip current situation. In other words, we're on the gradient of substantial rainfall impact. Big forecast busts tend to occur in the ensemble gradients, buying in too early to one set of solutions or another. So dangerous rip currents are my first primary concern for Monday-Wednesday, especially Long Island. Southerly swells should gradually build over the western Atlantic into early next week. Presuming the NHC 5AM Thursday track is reasonable, surge and wind field risks on the western side of ISAIAS are minimal but if the track shifts to where a portion of our area is on the eastern side of the TC, then those risks would significantly increase. My secondary primary concern is isolated 7" rainfall from the necessary combined events of Saturday nights WAA (warm frontal) event, Sunday afternoons possible isolated severe nw NJ/se NYS westward into ne PA, and then finally either a PRE, or a direct impact of ISAIAS Monday-Tuesday. I'm more concerned about Predecessor Rainfall event rather than direct ISAIAS impact. The 7" rainfall in my estimation would probably have to occur west of the I95 corridor due to the ensembles probable combined Sat night-Sunday afternoon events depositing biggest amounts somewhere near the western edge of our forum coverage (~Sussex-Orange Counties?). If Sat night-Sunday does not occur (1-3" combined event band somewhere in that area), then a PRE or ISAIAS hit would have to do all the work by itself and at this time, this is far too uncertain. So to get to 7", it's a lot easier if we see sizable rainfall Sat night-Sunday. There is still a chance not much happens here next Monday-Tuesday-it's in the envelope of possibilities. (See the 06z/30 GFS run). Let's see what happens. I'll be particularly interested in PRE comments. 733A/30
  2. LOW chance of exceeding 4" but this is worthy of awareness, I think. Have reviewed most of the typically used 12z/6 modeling, and WPC/SPC guidance. The scenario is a weak wsw flow aloft at 700 mb, over a very moist (near 15C dew point) 850MB vorticity rich wind shift across NJ (sse-sw) with 500mb vorticity maxima passing newd within an approaching 500mb trough that doesn't swing its broad axis through our NYC forum until about 12z Saturday. Dewpoints are already generally in the mid 60s with PWAT 1.6-1.8",-not overly wet, but with slow movers, plenty to allow for potentially excessive rainfall. How it all works is not clear and odds are that more than 4" of rain won't occur but have seen 12z/6 SPC HREF MAX precip guidance nears 10" in 1 spot of east central NJ and spotty 10+ s of LI. Best axis: unsure but for now along or s of I80 through LI or southward down to near I-195 (Ocean Mercer) counties. It should light up late tonight in central or northern NJ into LI and continues into forenoon Friday,. (Could be one or 2 isolated wet microburst SEVERE's?). For nw NJ, if there is very little tonight then I could see isolated svr thunderstorms in ne PA drift into nw NJ and se NYS late in the afternoon or evening and then continue to LI as showers Friday night. Low prob of occurrence. SPC has no risk and wind fields are generally a little too light. 627P/6
  3. Please see SPC, NWS discussions, any statements, and our own members. Leftover PWAT, relatively strong 500MB (30kt) wind field, modeled CAPE, lightning density, SPC HREF and WPC D1 QPF all suggest pretty decent convection this afternoon dying out by late evening. Combination of convection (expecting several 1.5 to as much as 3" amounts today) and past weeks rains, should more easily permit isolated flash flood. Wind damage, mostly associated with wind and maybe a couple of uproots because of somewhat softer ground. Hail not mentioned but I dont think primary in this leftover tropical environment. Eastern LI seems less likely for SVR/FF this event.
  4. It's a bit early, but while Tuesday may be a subdued day compared to this afternoon in NJ, it appears Wednesday afternoon-evening should be our big convective event of the Mon/6th-Thu/9th time frame, similar or a bit less compared to what occurred today near PHL. KI/CAPE/PWAT slow movers in a fairly steamy uncapped environment developed on the remnant warm front/sea breeze boundaries and subsequent outflows, should promote thunderstorms-"potential"prolific rain producers in part of NNJ/se NYS, spilling east-southeast over Long Island (heaviest for LI probably NYC vicinity, but unknown). Since we saw probable 5-7" rainfall in isolated locations of Morris County NJ and down near PHI on Monday the 6th, it won't surprise if similar isolated 5"+ rainfall occurs in the NYC forum Wednesday. My main concern: do we get enough heating (temp upper 80s)? Potential for short fuse warnings flash flooding and maybe severe wind. Will reassess Tuesday morning, possibly updating this topic. I'm not thinking about the Friday (low chance FAY? per NHC 2PM/6 5D TWO 40%)-weekend cold front events, understanding in part that the Friday event may need to drop into the tropical portion of the forum? (if it becomes named).
  5. Good Friday morning July 3, 2020. This mornings SPC marginal risk, OKX near term discussion covers the basics (both review more data than I). Additionally I like to use SPC HREF which from my daily review WPC uses frequently for its day1 QPF. Have made this a larger window for thunderstorms/heavy rainers due to some of modeling lingering through ~06z, which I think is possible (not strictly heating related convection). Believe most of the big storms are in the 5-10P window associated with 850 MB vorticity-trough passing southward into our area. Regarding Severe: "probably" isolated but power outages from lightning could be somewhat more extensive than the damaging wind gusts due to PWAT briefly near 2" this eve. Can see isolated rainfall 3.5" somewhere in the area... best chance I think is se NYS or NNJ...from 2-3 bands of heavy showers/storms this afternoon, otherwise WPC D1 qpf looks reasonable. Will post as time permits later today/this eve and summarize with final LSR/Rainfall maps sometime around 6A Saturday.
  6. Instability should increase today and especially Wednesday with modeled cape and ki increasing a bit as the cold pool aloft drifts nearby. EC lightning density also supports. Low cloud and/or cooling sea breezes probably minimize strong storm potential for the eastern portion of LI. Have not delved into detail of the modeled soundings but yesterdays activity should be repeated, and maybe more so, but not quite the same locations. I'm favoring NYS/NNJ and probably also down from extreme sw CT into the NY metro. It's possible several locations will have as much as 2.5" of rain by Wednesday evening while most of us have, as posted by WPC (less than 1/2"). Hail sizes...unknown, but certainly in some of the afternoon storms. More rainbows - yes. Wind gusts, usually below 35kt, but as per yesterday, several storms might pop damaging wind. Hail and damaging wind are probably not outlooked by SPC through 09z/30 issuance, due to uncertainty and likelihood of not matching their areal coverage criteria for alerting. This continues last weekends interesting weather and added needed rainfall for the NY forum, in what appears to me, another 10 days-multiple episodes of thunderstorms with this noted in the General Discussion Observations topic. Would like to keep this thread to June 30-July 1. Hope thunderstorm production lives up to expectations- I think the stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon, barring low overcast arriving from New England. Yesterdays LSR map attached and will delete it late today, after the first round. 630A/30 One other note: OKX AFD from early this morning has it well covered.