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First snow of the year at CP? Snow showers are likely to dust the NY forum suburbs between 9A and 5P Wednesday 12/9/20. Does CP ASOS see snow and then is it the first Trace or tenth of the 2020-21 season? The sooner the snow showers arrive (presuming they arrive), the better the chance of measuring on the snow board. Most roads just wet but the northern and western hilly suburbs could have up to 1/2 or 3/4" on the snow board-grass-roofs-even a bit on some untreated pavement?", with I84 high terrain possibly an inch in PA NYS, lesser amounts you proceed east across the Hudson into I84 CT. No guarantees of precipitation in NYC (small chance its a mix of rain/snow in NYC) but a pretty good short wave passage along with NAM/RGEM/RDPS support all have it to the city (not necessarily measurable but snow in the air). Central Park climate data base (entire back to 1869), the mean first date of measurable there is December 7. mPING reports will assist what we see on radar Wednesday morning.
Caution: VERYYYYYYY early and this could end up much less robust than outlined below, if the northern and southern streams don't phase, or phase early enough into a closed LOW somewhere over NYS/PA/OHIO. (something always changes from what we see 7 days away but it's posted since there may be some discussion about the potential). Modeling has been trending to a large sub-1000MB sfc low early next week, with it's maximum strength in the mid Atlantic states. Ensembles to start, offer a solid 1" of rain and wind gusts 40 MPH. 12z/24 EPS/GEFS 850MB wind at 06z/1 is around 45KT, not the operational magnitude of the southerly GFS 65KT, GGEM 70KT, ECMWF 75KT, found over LI. Added the baseline D7 graphics from WPC and view these as a start. Added 12z/24 GFS lower wind field for LGA. The Richardson # preliminarily in this single 12z/24 member cycle allows downward from roughly 925MB. (50 KT). Also added the EC PWAT (tropical connection briefly 1.6"+). The 12z/24 operational EC has KI mid 30s generating lightning s of LI suggesting a High Shear Low Cape wind event. Strongest wind threat this early in the modeling is LI/CT. (did not say 50 KT gusts will occur but based only on the modeling, it's possible). A very small chance of some backside snow cover higher terrain western-northern suburbs.... To avoid disappointment on a big wet wind storm not happening, prepare for the more routine WPC scenario, BUT monitor.
The current atmospheric regime remains blustery and cold with temperatures in the low 30s on the coastline and a lot colder inland. Northwesterly winds are transporting an arctic air mass with delta ts in the 20-22C range which should produce a very unstable airmass over Cape Cod with building clouds and perhaps a few snow showers, due to the trajectory of the wind and less time over water, snow fall will be minimal if any occurs if it is too dry and stable above 850mb. Well if there is snow here in Harwich, MA I will report it.