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Showing results for tags 'observations'.
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I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
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It is 41 in Kingsport with a windchill of 31. Wind chills are forecast tonight to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Snow advisories are still posted for mountain communities. Still feels like winter, but spring temps are back in the forecast for this weekend.
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Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
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Autumn is coming pretty quickly. Thought some early discussion would be nice. Been a spectacular summer for me. Things are greener in August and more alive looking than I remember seeing in many many years. I am incredibly ready for autumn to begin though as I believe it will be quite beautiful this year.
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Post em.
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Instead of derailing multiple threads, I thought it might be good to have a separate thread for questions and related discussion on numerical weather prediction. I'll start with a few from a recent thread. A few things. For one, data assimilation is an incremental, cumulative process. You are exactly right in that observations are combined with a short term model forecast in as optimal way as possible. In your example, if no observations were assimilated into the 18Z cycle, the 18Z forecast would be identical to the 12Z forecast. There are some technicalities such as the use of later data cut-offs and a catch-up cycle that render this to be not exactly true, but from a conceptual point of view, it is. To your specific questions: What do you mean by "data collection techniques" and "why do we collect so frequently if not critical"? There is such a huge variety of atmospheric observations that are continuously collected. While true that things like radiosondes and surface metars are recorded with a certain cadence, most observations are actually quasi-continuous and/or with a much higher temporal frequency. This is true for radars, satellite sounders, gps radio occultation, etc. Here is an example of observations assimilated within a +/- 3 hour window around 12Z for metars, ships, buoys, radiosondes, satellite AMVs, aircraft, radar winds, wind profilers, pibals, and scatterometer winds: Here is a view of the satellite coverage for the polar orbiters for that same period color coded by satellite: Ignore the bottom right panel for the geo satellites as there is a bunch of stuff missing. Keep in mind that each of these satellites has a variety of sensors on them, some of which actually have thousands of IR channels to get information from different parts of the vertical (AIRS, IASI, and CRIS). All of the polar orbiters have a MW sounder with 15-22 channels which are critical for NWP. There are millions of observations that are assimilated into a single cycle. ECMWF has a pretty good page for looking at data distributions that go into their cycles: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover For example, here is a plot from their page showing the coverage of another type of satellite observations: gps radio occultation:
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Fire away!
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Hi all. I've been working on this idea for the last 3-4 years and finally have something to show for it: a private beta at https://thesunshine.co. I've been making apps that use the barometer inside Android and iPhones to collect a new data source that can be assimilated into weather models. I currently have about 300,000 people contributing to the network using my old system called PressureNet, which was Android-only, and, well, a pretty nerdy citizen science app. One thing that I've learned is that 300,000 people is nowhere near enough to make this weather observation network as dense as it needs to be. The quality control systems that operate on the data require significant density, as many of the phones report data that is too noisy to use. So I'm making another app, called Sunshine. This app is SO MUCH BETTER than my previous efforts, and I'm hoping we'll be able to get millions of barometers connected over the USA in our network. This app will be for iPhone, since the new iPhones have barometers in them. We're in private beta right now, and if you'd like to join you can at https://thesunshine.co. I'm looking for feedback on this idea and these apps. I think that there is a potential revolution here, in forecast accuracy, if we can get this off the ground. Thanks for listening, and I'm excited for feedback on this. -
26/M7 with high clouds approaching... EDIT: 24/M7 as of 7 PM. -
Give us your observations!!!
