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Showing results for tags 'flash flood'.
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Since PHI issued their FF Watch yesterday afternoon, guidance is still vulnerable to 2" one hours rains, have opened a thread for commented event info. My thinking is heaviest will occur in the interior of NJ; but NYC nor sw CT, extreme se NYS are not out of the potential. My guess is that if the region north of I78 is to FF, it will probably have occurred by 9AM Saturday with two possible bands, one late this afternoon-eve, and another near dawn Saturday. How much of this heavy convection drifts over into NYC is questionable but t's not impossible to see 1-2" in parts of the 5 boroughs. Maybe the most favored areas are near I78 and possibly the hilly areas of far northern NJ. In any case, convection could impact the evening commute and wet microburst severe wind is not out of the question late today.
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I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC. My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses. CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA. I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends. Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT. 12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt.
