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Showing results for tags 'heavy snow'.
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A moderate to major 6-12 hour snowstorm will occur Monday, mainly from somewhere within the I95 corridor southward. Snow, sleet, rain or freezing rain should begin between 3 and 6AM in NJ and NYC-LI-s CT around 6A-8A. Any mixed precip will change to all snow soon after beginning. Temperatures may be still be just above freezing at the start, but drop into the mid 20s by 10AM with wind chill down into teens and north-northeast winds gusting 20 to possibly 30 MPH. Drifting snow should develop wherever amounts exceed 4". 12z/2 NAM 900-500MB and 800-600MB banding suggests 1-2"/hour snowfall for a couple of hours during the height of the storm across central NJ and southern-eastern LI. Details of how much and where the sharp cutoff on the northern fringe (NYC), NNJ/s CT/se NYS still to be determined but too many models have slowly shifted northward the past day of cycles to prompt concerns for a significant impact storm. 03z and 09z/2 SPC SREF modeling has broad range of solutions but suggest close to 5" LGA with the blizzard conditions remaining just offshore. Let's keep the modeling-storm discussion in the January thread til after the 9PM (00z/3 NAM cycle has posted through Monday). MPing may be helpful. The 12z/2 ECMWF Kuchera snowfall map has been added per our thanks and appreciation to the ECMWF-Weather.US. This is a single operational member of all the modeling but represents potential... This could shift a bit either direction with time and amounts might end up significantly less in some areas but overall, it seems to have the axis of high impact travel concern fairly well outlined. -
637AM Sunday: : headline updated to Major near blizzard and added power outages. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night. Otherwise, amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. ---- 615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip. So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6" with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide) Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues. That's the reasoning basis for this update.
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553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday. For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC, this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe removal of the water loaded accumulations. Shovels and plows may be of value in the hilly areas Friday morning,. Banding is likely to occur Thursday night-Friday in the northwest sector of the upper low that will enhance precipitation rates in some areas. EPS 850MB easterly inflow as of the 12z/12 cycle was twice that of the GEFS, Therefore, the ensemble snowfall yield from the GEFS is minimal - under 1" while the attached EPS is considerably more. It's too early to be overly confident of 6+" of wet snow, in parts of the extreme nw part of the forum, but certainly possible. IF 6" were to occur at 33F, I'd be thinking of power outages by 9AM Friday. Snow water ratio's may be less than the 10 to 1 used by the ensembles. It should be noted that the WPC Monday outlook for 3+" of snow is only spotty 10% chance in the Catskills. I think this is largely based on the GEFS. Still marginal temps and a breakdown in the 850MB inflow to a weaker GEFS solution would nix the risk of heavier snow. The bulk of any snow should accumulate during Thursday night, lingering into Friday with possibly a second batch of trailer heavier snowfall in the wraparound band Friday evening, especially CT/MA high terrain. As the snowfall rates lessen during midday Friday and afternoon, it could change back to rain. It is an interesting situation and not unheard of. Even last May 9 we had accumulative snow in some of the suburbs, so I don't think of this as a new normal. In summary: Looks interesting for the hilly areas northwest to northeast of NYC. How much and is it worthy of a thread, we'll know in 5 days. I'll be following the NAM/GFS positive snow depth change... that to me becomes the minimum to look for, once it is consistently established from cycle to cycle. And of course, Kuchera and NWS products. Small chance gusty winds 40-45KT e LI Friday?. Meanwhile, LI/CT/se NYS, ne PA should pick up a general melted combined rain/snow of 1-2", iso 3"?
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Snow begins in spurts this afternoon-evening NJ and ne PA and reaches NY and se NYS LI 9PM -3AM and CT 4A-8A Monday. Heaviest continuous snowfall Monday LI/NJ/nePA, but the heaviest delays til Monday afternoon-night in CT. Power outages should become numerous Monday afternoon-evening ne NJ/se NYS/southern CT and all of LI. Coastal flooding for 3 successive high tide cycles beginning late morning-midday Monday with the worst moderate to major flooding possible with the late Monday night high tide cycle. Starter graphic is the snow depth as of Sunday morning 7AM.