Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'Tennessee Valley'.
Found 6 results
-
I thought this might be a good thread while we wait on Old Man Winter to unleash his hounds. Links and personal accounts welcome. I am putting this up. I'll work in the evening over the weekend to add a few of my own personal favorites. The ideas here is to get stories from all of the state.
-
Put your weather links in this thread. That way, as we add new people to this region, they have places to go and learn. Plus, it gives us all a quick reference. As a general rule, most of us abide by "read more and post less." However, for this forum to work...people have to participate. When making a comment, just be sure to add some weather expertise to your discussion(even if it is limited). Instead of saying, "Boy, it is raining outside." Try this, "The National Weather Service radar is showing heavy returns over middle Tennessee." Instead of saying, "The weather models are showing a torch," try this..."The GFS is showing warm temps at hour n." Read as much as you can. Google is a great tool. And don't be afraid to ask questions. That's how all of us learned to get to our varying levels of expertise. Last update: November 2018 -
You know, some regions have lawn and garden threads. I think in the Tennessee Valley, we have so much to offer in terms of abundant natural resources such as our rivers, rolling hills, Cumberland Plateau, and Smoky Mountains. With this being a weather board and the outdoor activities being dependent on weather, I think it appropriate to share pics and stories of our experiences in the Great Valley with a weather twist. Carry on. Carvers Gap The Garden Cherokee Lake on a Tennessee Saturday Night Rocky Top Frozen Doe River Buttercrunch
-
Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
- 225 replies
-
- 5
-
-
-
- mid-south
- tennessee valley
- (and 8 more)
-
Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
- 78 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- cold
- teleconnections
- (and 7 more)
-
Temperature is 60 degrees in Kingsport w on/off drizzle. Surreal day for early fall. Winds are 5-10 which makes it cooler. Following a slightly BN August...sure makes fall seem further along than it truly is.
