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Found 21 results

  1. I thought this might be a good thread while we wait on Old Man Winter to unleash his hounds. Links and personal accounts welcome. I am putting this up. I'll work in the evening over the weekend to add a few of my own personal favorites. The ideas here is to get stories from all of the state.
  2. Put your weather links in this thread. That way, as we add new people to this region, they have places to go and learn. Plus, it gives us all a quick reference. As a general rule, most of us abide by "read more and post less." However, for this forum to work...people have to participate. When making a comment, just be sure to add some weather expertise to your discussion(even if it is limited). Instead of saying, "Boy, it is raining outside." Try this, "The National Weather Service radar is showing heavy returns over middle Tennessee." Instead of saying, "The weather models are showing a torch," try this..."The GFS is showing warm temps at hour n." Read as much as you can. Google is a great tool. And don't be afraid to ask questions. That's how all of us learned to get to our varying levels of expertise. Last update: November 2018
  3. You know, some regions have lawn and garden threads. I think in the Tennessee Valley, we have so much to offer in terms of abundant natural resources such as our rivers, rolling hills, Cumberland Plateau, and Smoky Mountains. With this being a weather board and the outdoor activities being dependent on weather, I think it appropriate to share pics and stories of our experiences in the Great Valley with a weather twist. Carry on. Carvers Gap The Garden Cherokee Lake on a Tennessee Saturday Night Rocky Top Frozen Doe River Buttercrunch
  4. Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
  5. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  6. Temperature is 60 degrees in Kingsport w on/off drizzle. Surreal day for early fall. Winds are 5-10 which makes it cooler. Following a slightly BN August...sure makes fall seem further along than it truly is.
  7. All continues to be quiet on the western front.....as expected so far...Good luck to everyone this winter!
  8. A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc.... Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!
  9. And the new banter topic is up and running. Anyone for the summer of '93 redux?
  10. Went ahead and began a Fall banter thread. So, banter away....and may the force be with you.
  11. Looks like a fairly active pattern over the latter part of this week and perhaps early next week particularly for the western side of our region.....Obviously severe is always a short fuse situation but it was most interesting to see SPC start actually using Day 6 severe outlooks (and potentially beyond).
  12. Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  13. Co-worker reporting snow in Ft Payne, AL....just started.
  14. A thread to discuss the Winter Storm threat for Feb. 20th and 21st. A large area will start out with Winter Wx on Friday and transition to all rain on Saturday afternoon. The timing and location of the system is still in question, as are the p-types and durations of those types in certain areas. Some areas may experience significant icing.
  15. A thread to discuss the potential for a Southern winter storm affecting portions of the Tennessee Valley.
  16. December is about to begin. Let's see how all of this verifies.... CFS2 for next six months...December has progressively been warmer on the CFS2 while the trend for January is cooler. In other words, as the model updates it seems December is getting warmer on the CFS2 and January is cooling off. Here is the NAO outlook. Not great. Here is the PNA outlook. Would seem to hint at a developing western ridge, eastern trough towards mid-December. That rarely works out for us in the TN Valley, but certainly did last January. Here is the AO outlook. Would appear some cold will be in North America for troughs to draw from when plunging southward. Here is the Nov 24 ENSO summary from CPC. Here is the probability of an El Nino from the aformentioned report. Looks like CPC is leaning towards a Nino. Could it be that our winter is weighted towards mid-late winter? That would correspond with the developing Nino. Is it possible the atmosphere will lag in response and respond during the mid-late winter time frame? Here is the multi-model(correct term?) prediction for the ENSO this winter. This index certainly points to a cold snowy, winter in the East. A weak Nino is perfect. Will this index be the "golden ticket" or the source of grumbling? Time will tell. Here is the CFS2 prediction for the ENSO this winter. This is where my concern is rooted, but it is an outlier. However, even as an outlier, the mid-range models do lend some support to it or I would throw it out. CPC felt the need to include it in their update. That said, it can be a very squirrelly model. In this image, the CFS2 seems to hint at why it is warmer. It has a stronger Nino in place. Summary: Well, this will give us a baseline to work from as the winter progress. It might also help to determine over time what drives sensible weather. I should also add that November has been incredibly cold. October and September were not. October was slightly above normal and September much above at KTRI. In general, Fall climo will be cooler than normal due to an anomalous November. A weak El Nino in the right place in the Pacific basin could mean the TN Valley is in business. We will see what that impact is. Is the CFS2 on to something or is it off on its own? Will the warmish Euro weeklies be correct as they almost always are? Many Nino winters have been spectacular here in the valley, some have not. As stated earlier, I think that the temps for Dec-Feb will be slightly above. Snow near normal for the season - which I count as first snow to the last snow regardless of the month.
  17. Well, it's within 72 hours of beginning and modeling is looking more and more robust for potential snow somewhere in the Great Valley region. Right now 40 North and Plateau west look to be in the sweet spot with several runs in a row of the GFS really hammering those areas into Southern Kentucky. As of now, all major models are on board with the storm and are showing a near perfect track for widespread snow across our region. The main issue, as always, will be warm nosing causing boundary temp issues. This looks especially likely for the Eastern Valley, from Chattanooga to Knoxville. If the boundary temps work out, this looks like it could be a nice one. It's also somewhat shown that the new GFS has the same NW trend that the old GFS exhibited. Here are some clown maps from tonights runs. 00z GFS Through 90 hours on top, then the GGEM that Jags already posted in the pattern thread.
  18. Sunday school class...family...job...TN Wx Forum and Am Wx...my home...January 2014 - epic cold...freedom...snow...football...food...mountains...in no particular order. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
  19. The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.
  20. As we turn the clock towards midnight, we close the books on February. The NCAA basketball tourney awaits as does some wild weather. Banter away......................................It's been great spending winter w/ you all.