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Found 6 results

  1. Put your weather links in this thread. That way, as we add new people to this region, they have places to go and learn. Plus, it gives us all a quick reference. As a general rule, most of us abide by "read more and post less." However, for this forum to work...people have to participate. When making a comment, just be sure to add some weather expertise to your discussion(even if it is limited). Instead of saying, "Boy, it is raining outside." Try this, "The National Weather Service radar is showing heavy returns over middle Tennessee." Instead of saying, "The weather models are showing a torch," try this..."The GFS is showing warm temps at hour n." Read as much as you can. Google is a great tool. And don't be afraid to ask questions. That's how all of us learned to get to our varying levels of expertise. Last update: November 2018
  2. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  3. The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line. Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility. Stay tuned! Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
  4. Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
  5. It's back, the epic medium/long range winter discussion thread. This winter has nearly unanimously been touted as one to remember. Everyone in the know, our favorite and not so favorite forecasters all seem to see signs that point to a blockbuster winter. Let's hope it delivers as advertised. Else some folks have some 'splainin to do. Here is to an epic winter that we will all remember for decades to come!!! Courtesy of Brett Anderson here is his interpretation of the Euro weeklies for the first week of December : (Looks like an El Nino signature to me) From the usually conservative and usually playing catchup CPC :
  6. The monthly CPC forecasts are out, and as usual, the graphics are showing EC for our area with a hint at drier than normal conditions. Most of the Mets that were on the warm train earlier have now changed their tune to a colder December. The record blocking event in the Aleutians and the -EPO that has led us into this cold pattern, looks to re-load as we head into December. If things line up right, we could be looking at a major cold air outbreak rivaling the 1983 Christmas outbreak sometime in the next 4-5 weeks.... After the dismal last couple of Decembers, this one holds some promise for winter weather fans.
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