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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    Jeff's analysis above definitely covers the range of outcomes from now until the cold potentially returns during the second week of January. The 12z EPS is definitely back in the camp of a warm-up between New Year's and Christmas. It does look like it is retrograding a trough from the West Coast to a position in the Pacific(SE of AK) where it could pump a -EPO in early January.
  2. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    The QBO is officially positive at +3.36.
  3. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    The 0z GEFS looked to be heading into the Euro camp for d10-15. The 6z left that camp, and doubled down on nationwide cold. The GEPS continues w a nationwide cool down from Christmas onward. The GEFS mean does hint at a winter storm signal from d10-15. I am sure you all see the same things I see on the operational modeling in regards to that. The 0z EPS moved quite a bit overnight by placing a bit more trough in the east. It is almost(not quite) a reversal w its 850 d10-15 temps. At 12z yesterday there were warm 850s over the SE. This morning they are reversed w cold in the nation's mid-section and cooler air over the forum area. Again, I look at 5 day means for trends in this regard. The change is noticeable. In some ways, it looks like modeling wants to go w a full latitude NA trough w the cold dropping west and spreading east. Honestly, it feels like deja vu. Last winter, the models were cold in the very LR, flipped warm, and then gradually returned to their original solution by late December. Then, it turned very cold. Anyway, understandably a very fluid situation at that range...and again, this is pure speculation and not a forecast.
  4. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    So what does all of that mean? Looks like a stratospheric event could be in the works just before Christmas. It might take a couple of weeks to work its way down to our region. However, the impact on the stratosphere will be quick. Might take a couple of weeks for blocking to really take hold and deliver cold air into Eurasia and/or North America. Ideally, we would see a split that sends cold into both continents.
  5. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    So maybe we can kick around the strat warming possibility. JB mentioned that if this happens, the following 60 days are general BN w the colder temps showing up about 30-40 days after the event. He also noted that there is not need to hurry this set-up as we want February to be cold - I am sure that probably helps his forecast as well. Here is a tweet from Ventrice. I really like the information that he and Amy Butler(stat guru) put out there. This "potential" event will likely make LR models a mess after Christmas. The strat warming event could lay the groundwork for a cold January and February. Posting tweets helps me save on attachment space and I can credit the poster at the same time.
  6. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    Time to look forward after a week of big snow for some and earthquakes for others...and the week isn't even over! Anyway, just looking at the LR, I am encouraged by the 12z GEFS/EPS looks. They are not new to the party either. They have yet to buy-in to the EPS look. The FV3 looks pretty good as well in the LR - reference @Queencitywx in the SE forum I know the EPS is not a great look. However, there are come contradictory looks as we get to Christmas and beyond. It is entirely possible that the GEFS is getting the pattern right but is too quick on the evolution of the pattern. It is also entirely possible that the EPS is dragging its heals again in the SW just like it did last winter. And again, anytime we speculate about the d10-15, it is just that - speculation. Take it with a huge grain.... And we haven't even dug too deeply into the potential strat warm yet...maybe more on that later.
  7. Carvers Gap

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    Looks like there was also an aftershock. I know we have them here, but that is crazy. I didn't feel a thing up this way. Glad you all reported it, or I wouldn't have known. I bet it did indeed rattle some folks.
  8. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    I have to admit, I wasn't expecting the 12z GEPS and the GEFS to looks that good in the LR...but the look pretty good. The EPS is now within the winter season and should be more consistent. It is not on board...but it does not have the support of the GEPS/GEFS right now. All three show a warm-up. All three show it end. The GEPS/GEFS combo is the one w an earlier chance at a return to winter.
  9. Carvers Gap

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    Folks, TRI dropped a 49 year old record with this storm. TRI set the all-time, single day December snowfall record. I think someone mentioned that before, but here is the newspaper article. https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/Weather/2018/12/10/Official-snow-total-Tri-Cities-Aiport-9-7-inches-breaks-49-year-December-record
  10. Carvers Gap

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    Hearing that Gate City has been hit pretty hard. @1234snow, how are all doing? https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-still-without-power-after-winter-storm/1652263559
  11. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    BTW, I am not writing off the first half of January by mentioning the "second half" of January. Just was referring to climatology. Jeff has a great timeline in his post.
  12. Carvers Gap

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    Much appreciation to Jeff for the Weeklies update. Yeah, not a surprising run. It fits Nino climatology like a glove. Many warmups in December are often followed by a backloaded winter. It is a fairly consistent script. The stratosphere getting bumped around may make LR forecasting touch and go. I can remember Nino winters with long periods of cool, rainy weather followed by a 2-4 weeks of intense winter weather during the second half of January and/or February.
  13. Carvers Gap

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    Instantaneous verification. Guessing the correlational coefficient for that scenario is pretty good. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    Agree there is likely some science behind it.....We did the tornadoes and snow version as well. The great superstorm of 1993 was preceded by a tornado outbreak on February 22nd. One hit downtown Lenoir City. Then on March 12th(18 days later...spirit of the rule and not to the letter), nearly two feet of snow fell. Amplified patterns are wild.
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