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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    I recommend getting a Twitter account. I only use mine for wx purposes only. I usually find some of the mets from this forum and then follow the people that they follow. I read a lot from other forums as it seems that each forum has some really, really good posters. Pay for a good map suite, even if just for the season of your choice. I also read discussions from CPC, MRX, etc. The government weather services have some really good products. But your best resource IMHO? This sub-forum. It has been quiet because winter ended early. Some truly outstanding posters on this forum along with some outstanding mets. The biggest thing...don't be afraid to discuss and don't be afraid to be wrong....and read everything that you can get your hands from quality sources. Even still, my knowledge is gappy at times. I really like pattern recognition in the d5-15 range and even further. However, when folks start talking about the various waves(think HM)....my head starts swimming. I still don't completely understand all of the nuances that happen in EurAsia(mountain torque, pressure in eastern Siberia, etc) that impact our weather here. It has taken quite a while for me to get a handle on how the MJO works, and I still have a ton of work to do there. I think one area that really helped is that I took a meteorology class at UT as an elective. My professor was TJ Blasing. I think he also worked at ORNL. He taught us basic stuff which I still remember today. Just goes to show how important teachers are...I still remember him teaching us hw cold fronts work(cross section stuff) and warm fronts work. He taught us the physics of high and low pressure and how they work as you get higher in the atmosphere. He taught us how to read actually met produced weather maps. And he also showed us how to look at the atmosphere from a 3-D perspective and not just looking straight down at things from a satellite perspective. He wouldn't remember me from Adam, but I really enjoyed his class.
  2. Carvers Gap

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    From MRX on FB....
  3. Carvers Gap

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Heads up E TN folks and especially NE TN....MRX update. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... The initial line of storms has weakened considerably as it moves into the eastern half of our area. Satellite shows clearing skies over Middle TN that will allow for good surface heating and destabilization this afternoon, in addition to strong warm advection with the southerly flow. SBCAPE values are expected to rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and perhaps higher than that in the southern Valley. This, combined with the dry air aloft and continued high deep layer shear, will result in another round of severe storms in the 3 pm to 9 pm time frame. Hi-res models show redevelopment of storms near the I-75 corridor, taking the form of supercells that evolve into a line as it moves east across NE TN and SW VA. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat due to the dry air and strong winds aloft, and potential for bow segments along the line. LCL heights and 0-1 SRH values also support a tornado threat for the whole area, but favoring areas along I-75 as backing of surface winds may be difficult to achieve in the shadow of the mountains in the northern Valley. Hail may also be a threat given the low WBZ heights, but it appears marginal (dime to quarter- size) looking at CAPE profiles in forecast soundings. Hi-res models are in good agreement that the storms will exit our area around 10 pm.
  4. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Another great win for Auburn. What is crazy is that most of us prior to the season thought the league title would come down to Auburn and Tennessee. Not sure any of us saw the scenario coming that unfolded over the weekend. UT stole a game from UK. Auburn won four games in four days! The three-ball shooting by the Tigers means you all are never out of a game. Florida looked pretty good against you all, and had a four point lead early. Tigers drained two threes and then had the lead. Happened during a span of like ten seconds (made three, turnover, made three). You all should be fun to watch in the tourney. Tough to guard so many guys that can hit NBA 3s. Congratulations to your Tigers and good luck in the tourney.
  5. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    The February/March snow amounts in the Mountain West have been HUGE even by their standards. A poster from Idaho over in VolQuest noted they received 110" in Island Park Idaho which is just a few minutes from West Yellowstone. Smashed the old monthly record by like 30 inches. Above is the Madison River. Those snow banks along the river rival anything that I have seen them post. Evidently, the snow banks are getting so deep that folks are having difficulty exiting certain sections of the river. Yes, folks fish it during the winter. Great midge hatches. Below that is my absolute favorite fly shop on the planet, Blue Ribbon Flies. I mean the get snow...but that is just sick.
  6. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    If you get a chance to go to the western subforum and read about the storm out there...incredible. Check out this train derailment due to wind..
  7. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Just some amazing departures from normal. If we had any type of mechanism to send this south to accompany the firehouse...again, incredible cold and snow. Twenty-eight degrees BN for the month!? Remember those crazy maps with those incredible departures? Looks like they verified in some places. https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Montana-just-endured-one-of-the-nation-s-most-13679719.php
  8. Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles look a bit better this AM as Holston noted. Looks a little more like a zonal pattern will eventually try to undercut the western ridge....cause we know that western ridge has verified like zero times since mid-January. So, it well might be that the models pulled another head fake towards a cooler pattern. I probably shouldn't have bit...but it happens. Definitely agree that ensembles look improved today.
  9. On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring. Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable. Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound. Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain. So excited about this pattern change. So, so.....so....excited.
  10. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Good game, @jaxjagman. Your Tigers hustled and wouldn't quit. Nice game plan as well. That is a Tiger team that could win a few in the tourney if they play the way they did today.
  11. Rain and snow mix in the NE TN and SW VA(assuming SE KY as well) this AM with some warm advection type, short-lived stuff. Just looking at LR modeling, looks like we indeed might be in the middle of a pattern reshuffle. We likely see 4-6 days of AN heights upcoming followed by more a more amplified troughs rotating through. Big ridge in the West. This continues a pattern of LR modeling struggling recently, i.e. referencing the long predicted cold pattern that never came during winter. I don't think the reshuffle is a slam dunk, but it certainly appears that the ENSO state might now be coupling with the spring atmospheric pattern. I think the rainy pattern continues, but getting rid of the persistent ridging which has enhanced precip would be nice. Again, since we are out of winter, I am just talking pattern stuff and not snow. Do I think higher elevation snow is over? No. It is not uncommon for the last snows to fall well into April above 5,000'. I may be wrong...but what I am seeing after a warm week next week is a cooler pattern. We may indeed finish BN for March at TRI. Our monthly temp average so far is 36.9 which would currently be colder than the overall temp average(entire month) of any of the individual months of meteorological winter. Probably won't stay that way w a forecast of near 70 on Sunday...but interesting number to cherry pick this AM and gives a good idea of just how cold this first week of March has been.
  12. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Wind chill this AM was 7 degrees...in March! The models that kept looking for a winter storm may have been at least in the ball park - systems and cold couldn't link up. EPS looks really cold in the LR, but I am putting it in banter since it has been rather pedestrian this winter. Well, plus I wanted to talk some basketball in banter and just decided to throw in a little weather to keep this post street legal. I hit the sack at halftime. 9:00PM starts on the EC? No bueno para mi familia. Well, the Vols turned in another good defensive performance. Alexander had his best game in weeks. Admiral balled out as well. Both are seniors. Both walked off the floor last night as members of the #5 team in the country and a team hunting the school's first #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. What a difference four years makes! Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounds win championships. Pat Summit preached that on her way to hanging eight NCAA banners. The team is going to have to remember that as we head into the final stretch. An important trip to Auburn on Saturday, and then the SEC tourney. If LSU loses tonight, the Vols are guaranteed a share of the SEC title and their first back-to-back conference titles in school history. Been an excellent three game stretch w wins at OM, UK, and MSU.
  13. Fortunately LR modeling has been undependable to say the least lately....Why would I say that? Because LR modeling is not warm right now. Keep in mind we are talking about this relative to spring temps. Not talking snow. Not talking frozen precip. Cold rain. Cold, cold rain. Maybe the Canadian will be right?
  14. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Seeding will be important and so will UT's effort on defense. When the defense is there, they are an elite team. If it is not there, tough sledding. Who they get will be important. Bruce Pearl always stated that each Thursday-Sunday week of the tourney was basically a four team tourney that you have to win. If you want to be the champs you have to win three, four team tournaments of increasing difficulty. Nice way to break it down I think. I don't think Tennessee matches up well with a team like Syracuse who could be a 6-7 seed and be a tough out for a second round game. Teams that have beaten Tennessee have decent guard play, but they have at least one elite big man and a defensive stopper. If they don't have both, I think UT advances against teams lacking one of the two. Kansas, LSU, and UK have(had in the case of KU...sorry to see them lose their big) elite post players and some talented defensive stoppers. I do agree that UT's three ball has been inconsistent. But, their game might be rounding into shape now. I think the bigger problem was going so long without playing a top 25 opponent and our game just got lax. Beating a #4 team by 19 is a sign that UT has elevated its game again. However, at this time of year it would not surprise me to see another regular season loss. Every, single game from this point forward is going to be against an opponent that has something immediate and tangible to play for. Tennessees biggest advantage is that they played four straight weeks as the number one team in the country. They are used to the target on their backs. They have gotten everyone's best. That should help come tourney time. If UT earns a one seed they definitely did not "back into it." While their game has sometimes been erratic, getting wins over two elite teams(potential one seeds) like the Zags and Cats is no accident. In order to get a one seed, they will have to defeat MSU, Auburn on the road, and likely have to defeat LSU and/or UK in the SEC tourney. That is a fairly high degree of difficultly regarding the schedule. I mean at 26-3, that is pretty consistent w only one of those losses being in regulation. And yes, UT likes to wear teams down...great teams do. Alexander definitely has to step up his game while Bone has to continue to play as an elite point guard. He is arguably one of the top 3 PGs in the nation. Grant Williams is in the running for SEC and national POY. I do think the teams remaining on the schedule and the SEC tourney should get this team ready...and that is a compliment to our upcoming opponents. There is not an easy game in the bunch. Going to be some grinders in there. What a great time of year...March Madness, baby!
  15. Carvers Gap

    Spring-Summer Observations 2019

    Went to go running this AM...my route was flooded again. The water was not even that muddy. The base state is now basically out of its banks when it rains. And now...we head into the actual heart of the spring rainy season.
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