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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. I feel like we are just about able to nail down the onset of seasonably cold air by mid-December's standards anyway. Looks to me like it will be here around December 12th, give our take 24 hours. Most operationals(not the CMC), and all major global ensembles seem to have this as at the start date. I was reading @WxUSAF's comments in the MA forum about how the high latitude bridge will potentially fail to capture a portion of the TPV. IMHO, that will cause our source region to be continental Canadian air masses. That's not too shabby(to quote Sandler), but it ain't TPV vodka cold. As noted earlier, the Pacifica (PNA, EPO) is so hostile that it will take a near record -NAO just to balance the sheet slightly BN in terms of temps. What happens after the NAO decays will be the topic of much debate. Does the EPO reform? I think it might, but there are also analogs where the cold goes west and doesn't come back for months. For the time being, I think we get BN temps beginning around the 13th and hold that for a couple of weeks at least. Honestly, as John noted, winter is really just showing up on time.
  2. The 12z GEFS operational at 500 looks(for now!) like what one would imagine a -NAO block would look.
  3. The 0z EPS and 12z EPS are singing the same song so to speak. Now, we need to reel the pattern inside of d10. Good looks on the ensembles, and now we need to see the operationals get on board by Sunday or Monday.
  4. Fairly significant changes to the 6z GEFS right after 240. It has lost the ridge over the East when compared to 0z. A trough is now in place. We will see how the rest of the run looks here in a minute. Good sign.
  5. The global ensembles continue to advertise a fairly significant pattern change between the 11-12th of this month. We are gonna be fighting a terrible Pacific set-up which is going to influence the pattern. If it is going to take a record -NAO to provide balance, we have a good idea of what is coming when the NAO breaks down. Unless the Pacific flips to the -EPO after the NA0 degrades, a very hostile Pacific will run the pattern. As many have noted, there is some '89-90 in this pattern. With the warm start to projected for the month, '89 looks less of a match with each passing day. 2010-2011 looks like a decent match for December. Back to the pattern change. It remains to be seen just how cold this pattern will get. For now, seasonably below normal once the pattern changes seems about right. The opportunity to go much below normal is there. Right now, it looks like the cold goes west and then slides east, which oddly, is very similar to what we have seen after nearly every strat warm of the past few winters....
  6. The EPS still give us plenty of hope, but the GEFS seems to be leading the way right now. That said, in the fifteen years we have lived in this house, this is the first time I have seen the leaves off the trees this early. Completely stripped bare are most of them. I would guess Mother Nature knows something.
  7. If the GFS(all runs today) is correct, the trough will set up shop in the West and just roll periodic cold fronts through the East. I am definitely dialing back expectations now.
  8. I think we are going to see the -NAO hook into the SER for a 5-7 day time frame before mid-month. That should open the door for very warm temps. But it should be noted, that when the SER has connected into the NAO before, we have see the PV get hammered and split. I think right now there are so many dynamics in play, it is just too many plates for models to handle. That said, the potential for an NAO infused eastern ridge is growing. If the EPS is right, that should retrograde westward fairly quickly. The GFS/GEFS may have scored a coup on this feature.
  9. And one last post within a flurry of posts, a bit of a SER is not a terrible thing w/ a block. We want the STJ/southern branch to attack the block, and not just get suppressed to Cuba. I suspect in coming days, we see that boundary get set quite far to the south.
  10. What we see above is slider city which is one of the best ways we get snow for the entire forum area(E TN also gets snow from Miller A types, and middle/west score from Apps cutters and Miller B variations). How suppressed will that storm track be? IDK. As noted by a met in the MA forum, modeling often will correct further south as the event gets closer which is opposite of "normal trending" which is north and west. Where that boundary sets up is important. I think we will see the boundary initially set-up over the Ohio Valley. Whether that pushes further south will depend greatly on how much the SER fights back. Oh yeah, the SER....it is present. However, if one looks at the EPS d10-15, the block(and maybe double block) wipes it our for a TBD time frame.
  11. Here are the 5day(day 10-15)means for the 0z EPS....only fly in the ointment is BN precip. Impressive for 5 day means. Now, sometimes BN precip can actually reflect a snowy pattern. Looks to me like the mid latitudes will feel the colder effects of the block around Dec 12th. Modeling has bounced all over the place with trying to nail down the initial cold front, but ensembles generally favor that date. With the initial cold being pushed back several days, the actual norms a colder as we are looking at mid-December vs early December. This would be a pretty awesome score by modeling. I feel like wx modeling will have nailed this from 3-4 weeks out(Weeklies).
  12. Overnight ensembles continue to advertise a big switch between hour 240-260 which is just outside the 10day window. I would expect to see more winter storms than I am seeing in fantasy land, but I also know that modeling has extreme difficulty handling the block. The EPS is nearly perfect. Remember that GFS run from many days ago that hooked the PNA ridge into the NAO block and trapped cold under it? It had that, but the source region cold was not crazy cold - but probably cold enough. That look normal delivers suppressed flow w/ some northwest flow components.
  13. That is pretty amazing. We ended up +2.9, but we had several days of more than +15 and a +21.
  14. 12z EPS and seasonal CFS2(last run before December hits) is progressively cold with each passing week.
  15. For better or worse, I have been riding with ensembles of late. I think you all are going to see some upslope at the very least.
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