Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. What do you all think about firing up a thread for the Tuesday event? I don't mind discussing it here either. Just thinking that it might be thread worthy at this point.
  2. ...and I said cold chasing rain? I am batting .1000 today!
  3. No problems with a cold source on those maps. I have been kicking this many of you feel like the operational have been sniffing out cold in the LR compared to ensembles. The GFS operational was the first operational to catch the flip from extreme heat to record cold during the four week progression of October to November. The CMC was next if I remember correctly. Do you have the actually surface temps for the CMC(not just the departures)?
  4. Man, I am about out of memory on my account. Tropical Tidbits has it. If you don't have access...let me know and I will post it here. It is almost post worthy anyway. That was extreme stuff.
  5. If you all get a chance, take a look at the surface temps on the last few frames of the CMC. -45F air coming down the Plains. GFS has that to some extent as well. May or may not verify, but that type of cold never ceases to amaze me.
  6. 12z GFS and CMC very poised to unleash bitterly, bitterly cold air around d10. 4 hours ago...I warned about a warm-up. You can thank me later - like washing my car in the middle of a drought. LOL. We will see what the ensembles say...but I think the operationals since October have actually led the way in finding cold after d10. The ensembles in that range have been playing catch-up for about two months.
  7. 12 NAM snowfall amounts are true statistical outliers compared to other guidance. Either it scores an VERY unlikely coup or is just further evidence that it amps systems up far too much. I have seen it amped...but this is even a bit much in relation to itself. We will need to tread carefully with that model this season.
  8. LR...tough call. Yet again, LR models are depicting a fairly strong ridge to return to the East during the third week of December. Why do I say "tough call?" Well, interestingly ensembles also showing AN heights over Greenland during the same time frame. Way out looks like the Aleutians trough returns(that we lose around d10 and replace with an eastern Pacific ridge starts to push inward) - meaning that may not be a permanent feature. I do know one thing, ridges that get established in the East are tough to move once there. On a sour note, the CFSv2 has flipped to a warm January after weeks on end of depicting that month cold. It could easily flip back as it is a "flavor of the month" type model anyway. Just thought I would give a heads-up that it appears that the warmth that was shown for mid-month has re-appeared on ensembles, just one week later. Will it hold? No idea. It hasn't for a few weeks. But anytime models are in "lock step" probably best to at least throw some shade their way. It is possible that the trough out West could correct eastward, but we will see. Finally, there was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential PV split - maybe at 50 mb? If that happens...modeling should start to really jump around. Maybe that is why we are seeing blocking showing up out of the blue in Greenland. As for Tuesday, tough call yet again...probably cold chasing rain but we had a similar set-up in mid-November that worked out quite well.
  9. Yeah, I think the trick is just getting the big high since we don't have blocking. Otherwise, those systems are going to zip right along. On a positive note, there is some potential for over-running in terms of snowfall. That cold will be stubborn to move. Like John said, 14-15(could have been 13-14) had a winter with lousy blocking teleconnections besides the Pacific. I have been thinking about the +AO data that you mentioned(great stuff BTW). I just wonder if this is a year where the +AO might be a bit deceiving. With a big EPO block, we essentially have blocking with cold air coming straight off the pole. Now, a +AO most winters is a big problem...and I am not sure we will ever over-achieve like 14-15(to paraphrase Bob Chill I think), but I do think John has a point. John and I used to argue back and forth at times(not really argue...just teasing really) about how important the Atlantic is in terms of blocking. Problem, is until the AO flips negative...the Pacific is the driver right now with marginal help from the Pacific. So, he has sort of sold me on that, but I do like a good old fashioned -NAO....sort of like owning a Ferrari. Nice to look at on modeling, but when the time comes...pretty much not something achievable by the common man. I will also so, if we lose the Pacific...gonna get warm! I do hold out hope that we actually do see some blocking over Greenland as we lose the Pacific. That type of blocking might show up in mid-Jan per Nino climatology and this SSW stuff. If we are able to steal December from the throws of warmth, we have achieved something in my book. Pretty overwhelming how warm Nino Decembers have gotten in the past. That said, there are some colder clusters though smaller in number.
  10. Pretty amazing how different the pattern looks with those big highs showing up in the Northern Plains. Basically flattens the pattern out and prevents cutters on modeling...On the GFS, there are now three events to track inside of 10 days. They are small but better than what we typically get at this time of year.
  11. It appears the 12z GFS has rediscovered the potent slp next weekend...amazing how that happens over and over again. Now, it is a warmer system as their is a low in the Lakes. But plenty of time for that to change. For a progressive model like the GFS to have that. My guess would be(if real) a more wound-up system further inland.
  12. As Holston mentioned...going to have to keep an eye on that the system Tuesday into Wednesday. Both the 12z ICON and the GFS are touting 1040+ highs. Reminds me of the system a couple of weeks ago. Probably cold chasing rain...but that is big cold chasing rain. Also, will it develop a wave along the front per the icon?
  13. ...And the 0z Euro w a tease way out there. Interesting to see the models really looking to bring a system nearly due north out of the GOM at that d8-10 range. That threat has never really materialized inside of d6 or 7. With the sharp EPO ridge out West, it does make sense. Would not be surprised to see one of those materialize in the d5-6 range sort of out of the blue OR just a thread that was "rediscovered." Again, it is not uncommon for global models to lose storms around d7 and then find them again.
  14. Oddly, I am not as worried about timing(maybe I should be)...just want that big high. The two ingredients in a set-up without Atlantic blocking are an active jet and a good source of cold. The GFS and CMS have those...and both have energy in the pattern at about the right time given the range we are at which is a week+.