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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Lastly, I will add that we have been watching this time frame for almost three weeks beginning w the SSW discussion. Feels like we have been watching this potential event forever. It will be nice to see it actually happen, but man, still a week to go! Really hoping we get 2-3 systems to track. I am definitely prepared to go the mountains should they score. Hopefully valley locations can get in on the act. I think right now, all areas are still in the game. By early next week, hopefully we get a better idea if this potential block will produce. Then there is the question of duration....I think it lasts a minimum of two weeks. Not sure after that.... Great work in the historical thread by several posters...lurkers be sure to check it out. Strong work.
  2. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    As Jeff mentioned in the historical thread, we need to eventually see systems form over Alabama or even west(or east...depends on you valley location) of there and attack the block. Sorry Jeff if that is quoting you incorrectly. I do not see those setups yet in the modeling because it is just too far out there(meaning past d10). Past blocking events do support that area for storm formation, but there are times when confluence is to our east. But here is an idea....as the trough retrogrades it is likely that we will at some point fall into the slot for good storms. Sometimes when taking a photo, a photographer will bracket a shot. Roughly speaking if they are not sure of the exact setting, they will take a shot w multiple settings to cover their basis and one of those shots will be a winner. I think the same thing here...as the block retrogrades at some point the sweet spot will favor us. Now, the ten million dollar question, "When the track favors us, will there be a system in the pipeline once the 500 pattern is in our favor?" No idea. On the operational GFS one can see the block really "push." The details are foggy, but the idea is that systems will be forced south before lifting north. And systems will really slow down. Anyway, the actual events that begin the pattern shift are now depicted on the NAM. An initial push of cold will temporarily push the SER south. It rebounds. That can be seen on the NAM. After that, the globals show a very temporary SER rebound and then the retrograde begins.
  3. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I definitely like the looks of the 12z GEFS and GEPS. No major changes in my thinking at this point. We are just about where we can talk storm tracks(not specific storms). The press from the -NAO is likely undermodeled, so still tough to get a good call at this point. VERY preliminarily, initially at the beginning of the pattern it looks like hand-off situations will be present where a system tracks across the eastern US north of I-40 and hands-off its energy to the coast and potentially stalls. Only NE TN and SW VA would benefit from that, mainly the mountains. Once those hand-offs are done(they look like sometime between March 3-5), then systems really look like they are forced to the low road. That does coincide with earlier graphics that depict the NAO beginning to slowly weaken...and I mean slowly. But that slight rise in the NAO(while negative) is often where big storms haunt. Other than that...looks like a week from tomorrow or a week from Saturday is when the blocking pattern is truly felt here w seasonal to BN temps...then a step down to cold. Just about where we can say that this is not a trend, but an actual event that will take place. I like to be within 5 days before saying such and such pattern will change. I have seen too many head fakes to say anything is certain.
  4. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    Here is the d10-15 mean on the 0z EPS. For comparison...not exact but interesting.
  5. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    Also, notice that area of BN heights just east of HI...that is also a nice marker.
  6. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    Great work! Nice information and graphic. Looks to me like a -EPO ridge w some blocking over the Davis Straits is key...AND that the storms don't necessarily happen until the block matures and erodes just a bit.
  7. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    The progression of the 18z GEFS is pretty awesome. @WinterWonderland, it definitely evolves to that look. Thanks for the share!
  8. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    John that is an awesome list, man. I just wanted to add that. That is just one of the many things that makes our forum awesome.
  9. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    That is one cold run of the 12z Euro operational from d8-10. Matches the GEFS and EPS at 0z. No idea if it holds...but nice to see an operational retrograde the cold into the EC.
  10. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Here is a middle TN link for wx events. We need one of these for west and eastern forum areas. We could build three 500 analog maps for those areas and then consolidate all dates into one analog map. http://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar Updated: Here is one for E TN... https://www.weather.gov/media/mrx/calendars/tys_cal.pdf
  11. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    John could probably help here as well. What we need are the major snowstorms on record that occurred during March. Go back as far as we need. It is not as easy as it looks to find these events. We can then build a composite look. We could also disaggregate that into ENSO years as well. We could disaggregate by several other factors as well. Biggest thing is that we need significant snowstorms for March say 6"+. I just think it would be interesting to do. Eventually, we could do that for the other months. Then, we know what pattern to look for for the forum area. Now, that look might be a bit different for Memphis than say TRI. Just grab storms for the forum area w amounts, years, specific dates, etc. But while we bask in early summer temps, we could at least build something productive. Thanks for the site! Also, I don't want folks to think I will tie up this thread with all of that. Maybe we could start here w a few posts...if it gets bigger, I can make a new thread for analogs. Could be an interesting resource. And I don't care who all works on this, even if we do duplicate work.
  12. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Not sure if the airport hit 80...but that is the all time record high for Feb for TRI.
  13. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Feels awesome. I feel like I have not been able to go outside since early Dec without a coat. The EPS is stone cold after d10. So enjoy it now!!!
  14. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Anyone have time to make one of these for the western, middle, and eastern sections of the forum area? Also, what site are those folks using to make a map that would reconstruct the 500 pattern for biggest March snows in E TN compiled into one?