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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    As discussed earlier, this might be a weather maker next week if the latest NHC cones is remotely close. Looks like they are leaning towards the Euro solution as the GFS brings it up the spine of the Apps at 12z. The 18z GFS now mirrors NHC thinking almost exactly.
  2. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Maybe a bit more interesting things going on w the weather this week in the forum area. Thanks to @PowellVolz for the heads up.... This is from MRX. By Sunday evening, the airmass becomes increasingly influenced by Alberto which should be nearing the gulf coast, and thus advecting more of a tropical like airmass across the southeast. Moving into Monday, current model progs suggest Alberto sliding inland to the west thanks to the western Atl ridge, before shifting east toward midweek as said ridge weakens and another northern stream trough picks up the cyclone. All said, as usual with these tropical systems, uncertainty is high at this range. Therefore given the fact that profiles will be increasingly moist amidst ample heating each day, think relatively high pops are reasonable. The fcst will highlight mostly chance pops on Monday, ramping up to widespread likely levels by Wednesday. At that point uncertainty becomes so high with the ECMWF pushing Alberto through the OH valley, while the GFS slides the storm just east of the spine of the Appalachians. Thus, the remainder of the periods will feature only mid level chances pops, although this is likely to change. Temperatures through the period will remain above normal levels.
  3. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Thanks to @nrgjeff for his summer comments in the observation thread. I agree. Definitely hoping that we are leaving the dry pattern. And you make an interesting point that the dry pattern (that we are hopefully leaving) was a continuation of the winter pattern which had noted dry spells. And the "Carvers Gap vacation/tropical coefficient" is definitely alive and well...the 0z Euro and CMC are now on board with the GFS for eastern GOM action in the 8-9 day range. Now, normally I would not buy anything from a model this far out. However, the GFS had this at like d16. I absolutely would never buy anything from a model at that range - unless it is a stratospheric warming event that will cause spring to be bitterly cold OR unless it impacts my family vacation. While it is not a certainty that a TS or hurricane will happen, the likelihood is higher when my crew is making travel plans.
  4. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Rain has picked-up in coverage and intensity during the past hour. Very thankful for that. It is never a good sign when one is hoping for rain during spring. That said, we may be in the middle of a pattern shift to a wetter scenario. Tough to tell if it is the same pattern which will now yield different precip results as summer sets-in OR if it is a new one w return flow from the GOM. A normal summer(maybe slightly above for temps and precip) pattern appears to be on tap which is fine with me in regards to temps and precip. @nrgjeff, what do you think? Edit...sorry, I should have placed that last question in the pattern discussion thread!
  5. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    It managed to not rain IMBY yesterday. Getting some sprinkles now. Well, at least it was cloudy. MRX has heavy rain for my point and click forecast on Thursday.
  6. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    I can't tell you how much I am looking forward to the rain upcoming mid and late week. I am really tired of watering the garden, and it is only May!!! However, I must say that the plants are looking really good, so I need to count my blessings. But I also have some areas that I have patched w new grass seed(back in March), and that is a pain as well to water. So, I am REALLY looking forward to at least a temporary change towards a wet pattern. Sorry for the "Dear Facebook" post....LOL.
  7. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Unfortunately, I may have some travels to the SW FL coast shortly after that time frame...so that ups any chances for tropical activity significantly. They have a big red tide problem down there from the last wet spell where they dumped nitrogen rich waters into Charlotte Harbor from Lake O. Some say there is no connection. I say red tide has existed for hundreds of years...but no way that discharge did not impact that bloom. Basically it is a normal phenomenon on steroids. That said, folks down there might actually welcome some unsettled weather which would dilute the bloom and churn the waters. The solution to pollution is dilution, right? Anyway, as soon as I booked the rental...the GFS cooked up some feedback. LOL. I say this because we booked a five day trip into SGI a couple of years ago(in the Panhandle). We arrived light at night w winds buffeting the car as we crossed - 40 mph gusts. It rained for three days straight. We couldn't even use the rental pool due to lightning. Last summer we went to Maine to experience some cool weather during June - hit 90s w severe storms for two days. We are going to Yellowstone later this summer...those folks better prepare.
  8. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    That is a really cool map. Southern Texas is surprising where it has been 698 days since the last twister? Northern Cali is as well where they are only at 40. Also surprised eastern Montana has gone so long without one. They can have some huge thunderstorm complexes during summer. One would think they would spin one up slightly more often.
  9. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Weeklies...Looking much warmer. Temps are AN to seasonal...very little BN. The BIG news(we will see if it holds) is the BN precip that it depicts. For as much rain as we have had, soil moisture in my garden is very low for this time of the year. Looks like I need to invest in drip irrigation.
  10. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Yes, the LR is boring right now. BORING!!! LOL.
  11. The Garden Thread

    Right now I have lettuce, radishes, broccoli, cabbage, strawberries, rhubarb, potatoes, and fava beans planted. Fava beans are now easily my favorite early, early season crop. Those suckers can survive anything. And they look cool too! Still have a ton to put in the ground. Just ordered some peppers last night. I know it sounds crazy, but getting plants by mail is pretty easy. The plants normally hold-up well during shipping. Ordered sweet potatoes last night from a local Tennessee company. My focus this season will be on Italian heirlooms and Middle Eastern heirlooms, specifically from Iraq and Syria. Italian beans and squashes have a very rich taste. Middle Eastern heirlooms are in serious trouble...so I am growing 3-4 varieties here this year. I like history...so maybe that helps. I also grow several Hispanic varieties of peppers. They have just the right amount of pop when making Mexican dishes. I am trying fingerling potatoes again this year along w a staple russet, German Butterball. I grew peanuts last year and they did well. However, not enough yield in my medium-sized garden to justify the space. Now, if I had a large garden...I would plant peanuts every year. Awesome plant and easy to grow - if you can keep squirrels and chipmunks from digging up the seedlings. They know that a seed is at the base of it. Makes me want to go full Caddyshack on those buggers.
  12. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Rotational slump? If so, that is going to be an absolute bear to fix. Probably is just the road bed giving way. If it was an ongoing problem, those tree trunks would look like zig zags as they lean, straighten, lean, and straighten again due to the ground sliding. Either way, tough job ahead to stabilize that long term.
  13. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Potholes are always a pain in the spring time. Looks like they let that one go or too long.
  14. ENSO 2018

    That would be pretty much awesome.
  15. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    First, let me say that I don't see any snow in the forecast for the first time since Fall. However, here is another quick update on the Weeklies that arrived last night(spring/early summer version....meaning less detailed). (edit...sorry for the typos!!!) 1. BN temps persist. 2. Seasonal to slightly above normal precip. Very dry weather over the Plains(and spreading into the western areas of the Midwest this run). Was a bit too close for comfort during this run. 3. I suspect(though not seeing anything to support my idea) that the blocking up top might lead to a flip to AN temps during summer. Somewhere in the back of my mind I have "filed away" that blocking during winter which leads to cold....that the same pattern leads to AN temps during summer. Maybe the ENSO flirting with a weak Nino could blunt that? Have a great weekend, everyone.
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