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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Carvers Gap

    Fall Speculation 2018

    Pretty strong signal on both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS for BN temps in the mid to long range. I will be interested to see if this lasts into November. As of this AM, a cooler SE looks to be a stable look on those two models.
  2. Carvers Gap

    Fall Banter 2018

    Jax, good game to you and your Tigers. Auburn fans are my favorite fans in the conference. I used to love the rivalry during the 90s. I actually miss it. Anyway, you had the pulse of this game from the get go. Have a good Sunday.
  3. Carvers Gap

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I haven't seen anyone on this forum say that Michael was worse or even comparable..just that we have to wait and see. I think where the news media is comparing the two is that the pressure on Michael was likely lower. And yes, what Andrew did was spectacular in terms of the kind of damage that it did. I have no idea if Michael did that type of damage today or not. Just have to wait for folks get in the air tomorrow. If the worst was at Tyndall AFB, they might not even release some of that footage. Hopefully, these folks along get Panhandle don't have to experience the total rebuild that Florida City and Homestead experienced. Again, the lasting impression of Andrew for me was seeing cars that were almost totally stripped of paint one one side. What was impressive about Michael is "where" the cat 4 occurred. Andrew hit the Gulf Stream and just plowed into south Florida. Michael was able to do this over shallow water and in the Big Bend of Florida which tends to weaken hurricanes due to its shape. Both were impressive storms w compact eyes. I suppose Andrew will always be at the top of the list for me just because it was the first time that I had seen category 5 damage up close. After seeing that, no way I would ever try to ride out that type of storm. I should add...it also looked like the dead of winter when we got there because the trees were stripped almost completely of their leaves. Michael does have a legitimate shot IMHO of being the benchmark hurricane for that section of the GOM. Just based on geography and seasonal steering currents aloft, it would be tough to get a storm much stronger. Now, south Florida is another story....plenty of warm water and long track hurricane possibilities make it a place where the Labor Day storm at some point could be relived.
  4. Carvers Gap

    Major Hurricane Michael

    When we finally get footage from the air tomorrow, we will know the story. A sub 920 hurricane is going to leave its mark. It is just a question of where. I think the area around Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach got hammered. I have only seen damage first hand from one cat 5, and it was impressive - even six weeks after the occurrence. If any of you all Twitter, Reed Timmer has some good footage as it came inland.
  5. Carvers Gap

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Great post. I will add that the damage to Homestead and Florida City was extensive and I think well inland(relatively speaking compared to the coast) - more than two miles. I went down to help about six weeks after hurricane. Unless, I was not paying attention(possible this was the case as I was in college), where I was working had damage from winds well over 120+. It looked like tornado damage. There was a piece of angle iron driven through a tree, cars looked like they had been sandblasted on the windward sides(no paint at all), homes were just leveled, etc. We may never know its true potential as it went over the Everglades thankfully. Having worked Hugo and Andrew, what set Andrew apart was how bad the damage was relative to the coast. I would suspect that its high winds held together far longer than most hurricanes just based on the extensive damage that I saw. I could be wrong. Whether this storm is comparable, no idea at this point.
  6. Carvers Gap

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I haven't followed the advisories that closely since landfall...but I feel pretty certain they(NHC/NWS) wanted people to stay indoors and to hold in place. The eye looked really stable many miles inland. I hope for all involved that it weakened. It is all relative as these things go inland. Often around the coast, building codes(especially roofing codes) are stronger. As this hurricane went inland, it likely encountered homes that were not up to coastal code. Again, I hope we wake up in the AM and all of the building code prep and evacuations worked....I went down six weeks after Andrew and (other than the streets being cleared) looked like it had been hit the day before. Hopefully damage will be limited given the idea that Michael arrived as a cat 4. I suspect, though, that we will see pretty extensive damage where that eye went on shore near the AFB and likely many miles inland. Sure hope I am wrong though.
  7. Carvers Gap

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Referring to the wind speed verification discussion...One of the things to remember about hurricanes and trying to verify if wind damage is that the areas that were likely hit the hardest don't have the best communication or transportation right now. Time and time again, we see areas spared and assume all other areas were as well. So, we really need to wait for tomorrow when the sun comes up to see how bad the damage is in the Mexico Beach vicinity. When Homestead was leveled by Andrew, many assumed that the entire area was spared when the first "all clear" news reports came from Miami proper. It often seems that the places that receive the most damage go dark for understandable reasons. This means that it takes time to really compile which areas received the worst wind damage. One of the stations that record top wind speeds was actually destroyed if I remember correctly by Michael. I suspect that we will see places well over 120 mph. That said, the eye(like Andrew) was very tight and damage of those high speed winds will likely be confined to the corridor that it takes. I truly hope that winds didn't reach 140....what was left after Andrew rolled through was total destruction.
  8. Carvers Gap

    ENSO 2018 ....

    I will be surprised if this gets to moderate before late winter....someone mentioned that in one of the threads, maybe Jeff. So, you think it looks warmish due to December? Normal for January and February will get the job done.
  9. Carvers Gap

    Fall Speculation 2018

    The Euro Weeklies (run is not completed...I can see some of the drop down menu for the full run) look like they are now advertising a pattern change and not just a one-off week or two of cold. They have been slowly moving towards this for a couple of runs. The end of the run washes out and goes zonal which is definitely an option if the trough retreats into Canada. Overall, very nice sign for some good ol' fall weather in the valleys and cold at elevation. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the run. I am keeping it short so as to give you plenty of room to maneuver. Give us some Rock Chalk spin! (am I doing that right?)
  10. Carvers Gap

    Fall Observations 2018

    TRI through October 7th, has a higher high-temp average than both high temp averages for August and September...I think that is right. I still have a difficult time believing that! That said, it has been a scorcher today. The wind felt like a hair dryer. But we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel....I feel fairly safe in saying that these types of temps (weeks on end) of highs in the mid/upper 80s, and low 90s is basically over. I am sure there will be something of a last gasp. I think we will even see periods of AN temps...but not to this extreme. This beats anything in my memory. It has been so hot that it probably deserved its own thread. But let it be said, the 72 hour countdown to end this crap has finally begun! The BOHICA summer is about at an end.
  11. Carvers Gap

    ENSO 2018 ....

    Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold. IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look. I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm. I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter. That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.
  12. Carvers Gap

    Fall Banter 2018

    Auburn opened as a 19.5 point favorite over Tennessee. Wow. Meanwhile, a hurricane may be brewing in the GOM.
  13. Carvers Gap

    Fall Banter 2018

    LOL. Well, you know it is bad when we are trying to convince the other that our own team doesn't have the mojo to win. Just now saw the score for you all. Well, the good thing about next Saturday is that one of our teams will get a W...Maybe one of our teams will look good doing it.
  14. Carvers Gap

    Fall Banter 2018

    Kamara sitting on the bench....malpractice on Jones' part. Yeah, we will give Pruitt time for sure, but it is frustrating seeing teams flip the script quicker than we do. I do like Pruitt. Problem w Pruitt turning it around...let's just hope it does not correlate to the departure of Saban. And I do think Pruitt gets it done, but there are lingering doubts as to weather our OC has ability. The offensive line has been so bad...not sure anyone can call a reasonable sequence of plays to account for the number of whiffs. Right now, Auburn is just better than us. Could we steal it? Anything can happen on a given Saturday. Our kids haven't won an SEC game in almost two years...going to be tough to break the streak. The mentality of losing is very tough to break.
  15. Carvers Gap

    Fall Banter 2018

    As for the Vols, I am glad they fought against UGA. I am growing tired of moral victories, but I also understand that Pruitt has his work cut out for him. There are times that they are really difficult to watch - just some really bad football on offense (just pick your reason). I think the defense has made great strides. The offense looks about as bad as I have ever seen it, especially up front. At some point, I hope we can take a big step forward. I like Pruitt. I think he is a good teacher of the game, and tough when he needs to be. Right now, the team is made up o 3/4 Butch guys, and 1/4 Pruitt guys(and those kids were recruited w a very short recruiting cycle due to timing of the NCAA Dec signing). I think it will take 2-3 years for him to establish the standard for which we will play by. Unless something drastic happens, I don't think anyone is going to catch Bama(likely UGA as well now) anytime soon. I think if we can get to where we can win 8-9 games consistently, that will be a nice benchmark. I am not convinced that the pieces are in place in Knoxville to put a championship team on the field. Could it happen? Sure. Until we have a new university president and a full board of trustees, we don't really know if they want football healthy. FTR, I really like Fulmer and think he is one piece to the puzzle in our favor. Still, we need some other pieces to fit into place. We also need to get the SEC schedule corrected so these murderer's row type schedules can be minimized. Next year's SEC schedule is much improved for UT. I have minimal hopes for a bowl game this year, but stranger things have happened. On to the bye week...and then @Auburn and then Bama at home during consecutive weeks. It is the equivalent of this fall's, never-ending ridge...FL, UGA, Auburn, and Bama back-to-back-to-back-to-back. Tough to rebuild on that schedule. Three top ten teams in a row...
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