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Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. I liked the Weeklies tonight. Overall pattern is ridge West, trough of varying degrees in the East, and a SER battling the trough. Blocking up top. Overall, that look is a good one and appears stable. The snow mean is up for the entire forum area w everybody 2"+ w eastern areas pushing 4-8" in the valleys for the 46 day period ending the first week of January. What is encouraging is that normal temps are modeled for late Dec and early Jan. I won't post maps this time as the Weeklies are very consistent compared to past runs.
  2. Thanks for the kind compliments. But man, I really enjoy reading everybody's posts...too many great posters to name. I also like seeing folks from all over the forum area add input. It is always great this time of year to see everyone come back for another year of tracking winter wx. Just a brief wx comment. The 18z GEFS and 12z EPS both really like the ridge in the west and trough in the East. We will see wha the 0z GEFS brings as the operational liked AN heights over the top in the medium range w persistent cool wx in the south. Stil, too early w climo for snow chances. But when we hit the third week in December...that changes. So, right now just trying to read the tea leaves and guess the winter pattern. It is really howling out there...saw one of the LSU kids talking after their UT game. His teeth were chattering. The wind is howling here at the moment. Just hearing that roar is a great sound.
  3. As we near the end of fall...the Weeklies do give a good clue to the first part of winter. Again, any normal temps I generally view as BN. OTH, when it is warm...that generally verifies. BN usually means cold. Last night's run had BN temps for the first couple of weeks and the last week or two. The middle four weeks are generally seasonal w some AN temps for the forum area. The ridge stays west. The 0z EPS supports the Weeklies as it colder than the GEFS through d15. The past few Weeklies trended warmer ever so slightly w the 46 day mean of BN temps still centered over the E/SE. Snow increased slightly over the western and southwestern forum areas. It decreased slightly for the eastern forum areas. Still, it was a nice mean w an absolute hammer on the control for the eastern Valley. Probably for banter, but the 32-46 day window featured a massive "model" storm that went from New Orleans to New England. We all know that is total fantasy...but it does show what can happen w cold lurking, The temp map (posted for the earlier run) is pretty similar to last night's. Just reduce the cold in Canada. My biggest take is that this run fits with what many have said...base pattern is warm w some strong cold involved. It did seem to wash-out in places w no clear pattern during the middle weeks as evidenced by all of NA being warmish which rarely happens. My next Weeklies post will go in the winter thread. If forced to name a pattern...ridge west, trough east w undercutting of the eastern trough by the SER.
  4. I am going to be singing Silent Night w thunder and lightning for the harmony?
  5. This guy has nailed the past two winters. Here is his forecast from the general discussion thread. Great read and always thought provoking as he has a tendency not to get trapped by group think.
  6. Weeklies map for today. Map pretty much sums up the run,. BN to normal...more normal than not. Ridge out west. Conflicting teleconnections...As Jeff said, battle between the SER and cold air. This is a great set-up for mid-winter, if we can get it to mid-winter. Cold fronts will be stronger then potentially. Right now it is fall and climo does not support staying power for cold. The trend is definitely modification by the Weeklies to more of a seasonal look. But the ridge is still west...and a good rule of thumb is the Weeklies are a bit warm as a bias in the long run. Snow is very similar. 6-7 for TRI. 3 for TYS. 1-2 most everywhere else. I don't expect that to verify. I just look to see if amount increase as that signals storminess. The pattern depicted is very dry. The CFSv2, which is flip flop city, does support the general seasonal idea of the SER battling incoming cold. To me, that is the pattern for winter. Now if a block can form, it will drastically change things as cold is available over a snowpack to our north. This would have been what I expected last winter had the SuperNino not fried the northern hemisphere. I think this winter has some really nice cold w bouts of warm in between. But when it is all said and done...somebody from Memphis to TRI is going to have some nice winter wx. Hoping our friends in the far west areas of TN and northern MS/AL can score some frozen precip this winter. That has ice written all over it at some point if the pattern persists into the heart of winter.
  7. 12z GEFS and GFS continue the cold look. Big western ridge and trough over the eastern US.
  8. 0z/6z GFS are cold. I assume the 6z GEFS will also be cold, The 0z Euro/EPS are also cold. The GFS has been slightly more consistent(compared to itself no the Euro) w cold but still swinging wildly from run to run at times. Usually happens when cold air is in Canada. It is also having troubles w what to do near Greenland.
  9. 12z EPS and 18z GFS had BN to seasonal temps. Looks like fall or early winter. If the winter reflects November, we need some cold. Again, I like the 60/40 idea of 60% slightly AN temps w 40% cold for the winter w one or two extreme bouts of cold. I will roll w normal snowfall for first to last flake whenever that is. DJFMA. The 12z Euro looked set to deliver major cold days 8-10 w an East based NAO.
  10. Yep. The PDO might be a problem at some point. I think though there are things this winter to balance out the negatives as you mention. This winter will be a good test as several good indicators are pointing opposite directions.
  11. 12z Euro is pretty chilly. Definitely has a late fall and early winter look.
  12. Here is the 46 day overall temp look. There is a warm week or two in there meaning it is not this look for the entire 46 days. The 500 pattern looks good w a ridge out West and trough in the East. I will take seasonal to BN after last year. I still wonder about the duration of the cold. This winter has the feel of a 60/40 winter where 60% of the time it is warm and 40% it is cold...at times very cold. I have noticed as well that when the Weeklies are seasonal to BN, that means some pretty cold air is in play as I have seen the Weeklies miss actual cold patterns due to a warm bias. Last winter is a counter example to that where it incorrectly depicted cold in January that was like three days instead of three weeks worth. Bristol has a 6" snow mean. Knox has 3. Chatt has 2. Nash and Memphis are 1-2. Even northern Alabama and Mississippi are 1-1.5. Huge lake effect snow signal w a Miller B type pattern in play....lots of upslope for the mountain areas it would seem w cold air and a northwest flow. Basically, two shots of cold. One, as Jeff mentioned, around late Nov. and the other a week or two later. The cold lasts longer than last winter. Should be a good test on how long the cold can hold this winter. 10x better than what we had to talk about last winter. For those new to the forum, this model is meant to look at for generalities and to find clues. It is not the gospel.
  13. 12z EPS is cold from d9-15. Looks like a pretty big lake effect event for the folks in the normal spots of NY and PA.
  14. 12z Euro looks similar. Will wait to see the EPS and Weeklies. The Monday Weeklies used the late Nov cold shot to reinforce the following weeks. The Jamstec is reported to have flipped cold for Dec. Euro seasonals look decent for Jan/Feb. Just need to see some consistency over the next few runs to support recent trends. GEFS has been banging this drum for a few days.