Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. The MJO continues to advertise a cold shot of air mid-month or just after. Not saying snow or snow storm. I would think higher elevations are not done(maybe even folks along the KY/VA/TN/NC border. Ensembles are beginning to pick up on an eastern trough around mid-month which fits the MJO nicely. If this fits the pattern of cold shots that make it into the Lower 48, it may be abnormally cold. We will see. Enjoy this great weather!
  2. 12z Euro with some snow on the Plateau, especially the Smokies, and some light stuff in NE TN/SW VA with the system on the 3rd. Nothing huge...but not warm.
  3. You can see the 18z GFS-para with a very good pass of a slp around the 6th. 1040 hp sitting just north of the GL. If that pulls north(and likely will as spring bowling balls are notorious for shifting north even at the last minute), that is not a terrible look. We really want stuff in Cuba at this time of year, and let it work back northward.
  4. My hoop house is up and ready. That guaranteed what the MJO shows this AM which is a potentially high amplitude rotation through phase 1. Beginning to see some modeling "feel" the MJO now as SLP tracks are now south of our area. Have a feeling that much colder air will insert itself into the pattern. I really don't disagree with the March looks that are AN. But embedded in that pattern may be a cold and stormy 7-10 day time frame...been that way almost all winter.
  5. The 12z CMC ensemble mean is flirting with a trough around the 13th. So, that is the first model to maybe show some hint of a response to the MJO. We will see if that occurs in reality, but worth watching in the LR>
  6. LOL...I don't envy having to release a March forecast for a living. I think we could see AN temps for March, especially the first 10-12 days. This kind of has the feel of the cold spell earlier this month where it go pushed back a few days, and a few more...then just finally arrived. Guessing a 7-10 time frame of abnormally cold temps gets sandwiched in there at some point. I don't see that on modeling at some point, but the MJO in phase 1 would flip modeling in a hurry without a lot of warning.
  7. US modeling has now moved decidedly towards the EURO model suites in regards to the MJO moving into phases which correlate to early spring cold. Makes me think cold, maybe significant, might be lurking right past what operational models can reach with their 16 day range. If real, we should begin to see LR modeling over the weekend produce some cold solutions periodically from run-to-run and then get more consistently so by mid-week next week.
  8. Here is the MJO...that is not warm for weeks 3. We will see if this verifies as US modeling is not really in support of that look right now. If the Euro verifies, we are currently in a reloading of the pattern very similar to what happened in January, and honestly, not sure many actually want to hear that cold might return. LOL.
  9. Fortunately stuff around TRI is still well behind the last 2-3 years. Weeklies still hinting that some troughing is going to show up in the East around mid-March. Looks like the March 3 window will be a an amplifying trough into the OH Valley and deepens as it swings east which means just backside cold. The EMON MJO (connected to the Euro Weeklies which as just released this evening) is adamant that we rotate into very cold phases around the 15th. That would be jarring given the warm temps we are experiencing right now. IF that pattern is correct, I would not rule out a snowfall which is well out of normal climo for us in the valley. Man, I kind of like the weather today...MJO is just nasty around mid-March in terms of prolonged cool weather.
  10. Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up! @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?
  11. Definitely seeing bowling ball season commencing. Just need to get one below us and time it with a trough.
  12. Short term, yes. Been saying the last week of Feb through March 3rd was going to be warm. If the MJO rolls to 1-3, the SER will be squashed at some point after that time frame. Seeing that scenario on some LR modeling operationals. Nothing a given at this point. Real question is does the MJO loop back to 7 or turn to 1-2. SER for the next week for sure. Going to be a swampy mess. I am of the opinion this is the same reset pattern that we have seen already twice this winter. I could be wrong...won’t be the first and certainly won’t be the last.
  13. Rally cap...long shot stuff. I didn't feel like the 0z Euro was exactly benign centered on March 3. Also, the 12z para-GFS has a low which takes the low road, but with a less than optimal thermal profile around the same time frame. Cold is not exactly in play, but this is a ways out and things could change(for the better or worse).
  14. The 12z EPS at 270 is textbook phase 8 for March. Trough tucked east of the Apps with ridging out West. Makes me think that ensemble may correct more.