Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Beginning around the 0z GFS has an inland runner Miller A. Big run. Long way to go.
  2. Autocorrect is absolutely shredding my posts today. I have to get bifocals strengthened in my glasses - actually went for an eye appointment today. So, when it sort of looks right when I am on my phone. Went back and read some posts this evening on my computer(bigger print). Looked like some of the older posts were written in Old English.
  3. Needless to say, very little ensemble support for that. 2/30 members have it.
  4. You are right. It had a cutoff in the West for days. Has had at least a couple of cutoffs over TN. With that big area of blocking over the top, it appears steering winds are minimal. Almost like a tropical storm under a big ridge. The end of the 18z GFS run had like 3 lined-up. Crazy looking stuff. And agree. Makes me think we may see a very slow mover at some point....could be rain or wintery. Not a cutoff, but just a series of systems which move very slowly. Might even be a realistic flooding threat if not snow.
  5. 18z GFS mega cut-off four days of snow.
  6. I have to get with the plan. The 12z GFS run had a similar cutoff as well. Do I think that happens? Likely not as other models don't have that. But with that blocking over the top in Canada, it is a good lesson on how storms cannot climb(add latitude) with AN heights over the top. Almost like bowling ball season... Might be some slow movers as steering current are lacking. edit: accumulation map is in banter since we are looking at a storm from 210-300.
  7. Somebody gif that run. Might not see a model run like that in the history of modeling. That cutoff forms around 210 SE of Memphis and precip doesn't leave SW VA completely until 312. Pure wildness. Snow totals from that run should be pretty high.
  8. I am all for a winter storm cutting off over our forum area!!! LOL. Long way out there, but worth a look if just for pure enjoyment.
  9. I can see by the number of people watching this thread that they must have seen the 18z GFS. LOL. Fun run.
  10. 0z EPS moved the lower 500 heights back eastward on this run. While no ensemble has a perfect set-up, they do provide a great example of a pattern which was originally a trough in the East, then a ridge, and now a BN heights in the SE. As John noted, the Canadian is very cold. I think it gets this solution by driving a strong storm west of the area. The GFS seems to lack some organization at 6z. Seems like the Euro is similar to the GFS. I could honestly see either outcome as a reality. It does look like the Monday to Wednesday after Thanksgiving are going to have the potential to be much colder than we have been experienced of late. Again, I kind of like the GEPS right now as it caught the changes about 48 hours earlier than other global ensembles. That said, they all look pretty similar now. I will say, I am not a huge fan of the present, but temporary -NAO. Again, in the past that has been a harbinger of a head fake. In this case it may just be one which is forged by the heights over the East being forced to higher latitudes. The one signal that appears to be legit is a suppressed storm track and a stormy EC(not necessarily snow...). edit: Post has been checked for typos. I was in a hurry earlier, and some of that made zero sense. Should be fixed now.
  11. It looks like we are going to get some sort of banana high over the top. Probably a little early for that to work outside of the mountains as Jeff notes. That said, the cold source is a big mystery. Is there a decent source or not. I tend to lean on the Candadian right now as it has done a really good job with this change in modeling....that said, I think it is likely too cold. Has the GEFS been upgraded? I know the operational was upgraded and the ensemble was to follow. It it has been upgraded since last winter, it may have some new winter biases.
  12. 12z EPS looks good verbatim, control looks even better. That said, we need to be wary of the trough slipping every so slightly westward as a trend during this run. The past two cold shots out West were depicted in the East, but came west with time. Not saying that is going to happen...but the -NAO is starting to show up, and that makes me very wary. Good looking 12z suite....let's see if we can get something good to verify finally.
  13. 12z Euro operational also is quite cold after day 8. Almost hate even talking about cold after the last head fakes, but it is there on modeling. So worth a mention to quote a friend.
  14. CMC was an extreme run for sure. The GFS at 12z also amplifies but later in the run. We have been here before....could easily be a head fake as the CMC operational develops a massive block(and I mean massive) over the top. Those types of runs have tended to not materialize. So proceed with caution. That said...have to think that stable vortex would be jostled severely if anything even close to those two operationals occurred.
  15. 12z CMC is sharply colder with middle teens(for lows) in E TN during its d8-10 run and single digits in the western forum areas. It also has snow showers deep in Dixie as well. If Holston's powerhouse storm develops, going to feel sharply colder after the nice temps of the past weeks.