Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Just tagging onto my earlier post. I think that 6z GEFS run still looks like a good compromise. Looks like the 12z GEFS and EPS have their act back least for this run. Very similar runs and placement of features. Looks like both moved towards each other. About the only thing different from a few days ago(looked super don't consider this a scientific statement with loads of rigor) is a cut-off that will dive into the southwest. "Looks" like the Euro has resolved leaving the low in the Southwest versus just dumping every subsequent cold shot there. IMHO, that is just normal bias working itself out. My main concern, is that has sort of been the actual solution(cold dumping West and staying) for about ten months so I am definitely gun shy. Basically a progressive pattern with warm and cold dispersed fairly evenly. Weeklies will run off a very warm they would have looked different if derived from the 12z.
  2. Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.
  3. Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
  4. Not a ton this AM that hasn't already been discussed. Sometimes that EPO ridge can bee too much of a good thing. Looks like the Euro is correctly placing energy into the Southwest sort of underneath that big ridge. We have seen that many times during past years. Cold is forecast for the East and the model corrects by dropping it into the West underneath a big West Coast, coastal high. Fortunately, I wasn't totally bought into the cold Eastern solution quite yet. I do think it is a situation where the trough still eventually goes into the East. The GEFS has corrected towards the EPS solution this AM which is of no surprise at all. I actually like the 6z GEFS run as I suspect that might be how it evolves at 500. Energy hangs back and then kicks out...and the eastern trough reforms for a time. My money is on a big warmup next weekend into early next week. Would not surprise me to see some record highs fall, though I have not looked at them recently. I made a mental note a few weeks ago that there were some low-hanging fruit record highs in late October. This week should be pleasant with seasonal to slightly BN. The 12z runs will be interesting to see if the the GEFS and EPS continue to move towards each other. Some say the recurving typhoon over Japan is responsible for the bouncing around of the EPS over the weekend. I think it is just fall, and well within what normally happens...which means LR ensembles are notoriously fickle at this time of year. I still think the overall pattern is one where cold builds out West and then surges eastward with big fronts. Warm surges behind those fronts on return flow. Wash, rinse, repeat. Pretty classic fall pattern. In other words, fairly progressive pattern where nothing really holds yet.
  5. TRI's wx data for the past nineteen days of October. Notably, on October 3rd TRI had a record high temp of 94. Just two weeks later, the high was 60. That impressive 34 degree change definitely challenged the wardrobe of many. Shorts and t-shirsts to hoodies and rain jackets! Five of the last six days have featured BN temps with plentiful rainfall and the first frost of the season on rooftops IMBY.
  6. Very beneficial rains fell in NE TN yesterday which is a regions that has struggled to get rainfall before last week.
  7. Definitely a weak trend long term to slide a SER in south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. With that cold water off of South America, does not surprise me at all. I continue to think a back-and-forth pattern is likely with cold building in the northwest and surging SE w/ arm air surging in between cold air masses...and significant(but temporary) heat at that. Sometimes with ensembles, the average/mean shows up and the average or mean is not the actual weather. That SE ridge is going to be significant in front of incoming cold fronts, and I wonder if maybe that is why it is showing up. The GEFS nor GEPS have this, but the overall long wave pattern over NA is fairly similar among all global ensembles - GEFS would have a SER if it backed up a few hundred miles. The Euro does a good job in detecting that SE ridge early. Now, the Euro bias is also to hold cold air back in the SW. However, it has been correct about this for months on end, but sometimes it misses because of this. I think with it being shoulder season, we are just going to see an unsettled pattern. This past week is probably a great example. Lots of conflicting signals out there, and I am sure it is playing havoc with LR modeling including along with the changing wavelengths of the season. Lots of moving parts.
  8. I actually like wx twitter...just have to filter out the blah. I literally only follow like twenty people total on Twitter. For me, pics use up a ton of my AmWx storage, so just easier to use a Tweet. Point is the with Tweet above, though we are about to enter a normal to BN pattern...tough to extrapolate that too far out as the 6wave pattern is likely not sustainable - need to have a more stable wave pattern. That will likely break down fairly quickly. For those saying there will be a quick return to warmth, that pattern probably supports that - meaning it will break down. That 6wave pattern is fairly progressive and won’t allow heat to build over one area for long. But once it breaks down heat will possibly build under either a western or eastern ridge.
  9. I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center.
  10. I thought it was windy today...when I opted to stay under the bridge, I might have understated the winds. Winds were clocked in the 30mph range today in areas of E TN. If you have ever watched the weather roll in over the ridge lines at higher elevations...that is what it looked like. Grabbed this graphic from MRX's FB page...
  11. I am with you Jed...when I looked out and saw it raining this morning, felt like I was watching it snow(it had become such a rarity). Anyway, looks like wind chills this evening in southwest VA are ranging form the low to upper 30s. Wind chills at TRI are in the low to mid 40s there. Wind is really howling. This is my kind of weather. Friday morning has a mention of patchy frost by MRX for Kingsport as lows dip into the mid 30s. Will be interesting if later this month TRI can approach a record low as many are in the mid 20s. The GFS has been toying with this for several runs - but it has a notable cold bias so we will see. Wouldn't be surprised to even set a record high early next week. Looks like some wild temp swings coming up. That is fall to me...some nice days and some gnarly weather days. I had to stop jogging today and chill out under a bridge as sheets of light rain and drizzle came up the river on about 15 mph winds. Looked like the kind of thing you would normally see at higher elevations. Anyway, I didn't really chicken out by trying to stay drive. I was done walking my route and was waiting for my ride. Just surreal to be roasting a couple of weeks ago and then to be witnessing a scene like that. Wild, but why I like the weather and find it interesting. My neighbor saw me heading out in shorts and a T-shirt and noted that it was probably time to switch to warmer clothes...I was thinking he was likely right as I was standing under that bridge.
  12. Pretty good illustration of the hemispheric pattern where the wavelengths are really shortened up likely due to the season change. Finally have the term I was looking for earlier in the thread - wave. So, wave3 and wave4 patterns are fairly stable IMHO with w4 patterns being very common during winter(correct me if I am wrong on that). The wave6 pattern below is probably not sustainable for very long. What becomes the stable pattern once this(if it even verifies) reverses back to a wave4 or wave3 pattern is debatable. Pattern could revert back to the most recent warm pattern or form something new. IMHO, sort of like spinning the wheel on the old Price is Right. The wheel is gonna eventually stop...but can we win a new car is the question? Also note this is waaaay out there and may not verify...but this also might explain why the GFS is so cold - cause it might be wrong. LOL. Anyway, I thought it was a interesting look even if it didn't verify.
  13. So.....haven't seen rain for months. The band is heading into Western NC over the weekend. A low comes out of the GOM along the SE coast throwing copious amounts of precip back int W NC. I think we get the event in, but gonna be a tight fit. Hoping that system doesn't get there until late Saturday night - Euro needs to be right!
  14. For the eastern two grand divisions, looks like the lion's share of precip fell north of I-40. NW TN, NE AR, SE MO, and the western half of KY did very well along with areas just north of Nashville. Also appears that anywhere 0.80-1.00" of rain in the Kingsport area this morning. For once, an over producer IMBY!!! I thought RadarScope looked too low. So, I scanned some wxunderground stations and many showed one inch totals near MBY which seemed too high. AHPS seems to give some credence to those higher totals, though maybe not quite that high. Still, a good rain event for some with a maybe some more still to fall.
  15. A big snowstorm in NE TN in late October is the kiss of death here. Cold Novembers, as John has documented, generally favor cold winters. Last winter was an exception to that rule. As Jeff noted as well, probably want to see some strong cold fronts then - the winter will remember what happens in November. However, I really don't like seeing snowstorms in October - though I don't really have a choice in the matter so I just enjoy it anyway. LOL. I definitely think there is always a danger that sometimes cold source areas get emptied of cold and then it takes them some time to rebuild. Though, I am sure there is a line of thinking that cold sources can replenish quickly.