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Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Coach Jones needs to start using the Euro model for his metrics package...
  2. Been doing a bit of digging w La Niña winters, weak to moderate. Their are some very decent analogs. I would suspect they correlate well with a -QBO and when also coming off a Nino-ish "bounce." With that in mind I am actually optimistic that this winter will be a good one. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
  3. And truly, winter patterns are fickle. I have seen great signals for winter result in cold, rainy winters. I have seen winters w marginal signals do very well. Like I said above, moderate-strong Ninas or super Ninos...almost always result in warm winters. I am no fan of nadas either. Need a weak enso driver either way IMO. Also, we won't know how blocking will look for a couple of more months. Have to think the -QBO will help there. It has a very decent correlation to recrent, good winters. Also, John, we had kicked around the idea that warm winters seem to come in 2s or 3s here...wondering how that idea might factor as well? Jeff, great write-up BTW... The rest of you need to jump-in as well. Nobody holds anyone accountable for seasonal forecasts because they are so tough to get correct.
  4. I can live w a weak Nino and -QBO. We go moderate amd another warm winter is prob on tap. The ENSO graph had been slightly positive (if I rem correctly). The recent month of BN temps and cool, rain days reflected that. Fortunately this Nina appears tp be weak. Those can be good winters. John, what do your family records show regarding -QBO and weak Nina winters? I think we will be ok as we are not fighting a huge hangover from the Super Nino...maybe just fighitng a lingering headache.
  5. From CNN... Florida: About 15 million people are without power across the state, Christopher Krebs of the Department of Homeland Security said Tuesday. Georgia: More than 1.3 million customers -- which includes households and businesses -- are in the dark, according to Georgia Power and Georgia EMC. South Carolina: 161,000 customers lost power, according to Duke Energy and SCE&G. North Carolina: More than 62,000 customers don't have electricity, according to Duke Energy. Alabama: More than 20,000 customers lost electricity, Alabama Power said Tuesday.
  6. Wind has been pretty stiff this afternoon. Here is the special weather statement from MRX... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 TNZ014>018-037>047-070-073-074-VAZ001-005-122200- Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Jefferson-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Lee-Scott- Including the cities of Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Maynardville, Rutledge, Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Dandridge, Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Jonesville, and Gate City 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... Strong gusty southeast winds can be expected this afternoon across the area. Many locations will see southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph, with occasional gusts to near 40 mph. Winds this strong may cause downed tree limbs and power outages. A few weaker trees may be downed as well. The winds should diminish during the late afternoon into early evening hours. $$
  7. With the fire damage to the Chimneys, wind damage(trees falling) has been an issue along the roadside areas during the past year - much better this go around. Looks like GSMNP faired very well. Fortunately Irma appears (eyeball test...nothing exact) to have jogged well south of its inland forecast. I have not looked at pressure centers, just radar. Georgia has a ton of folks without power. Thankfully we did not get worse. The Florida Keys...man.
  8. I have wrens that have made a nest in the face of our fake owl...supposed to scare away birds. Just dug a hole write out. I have pics of baby wrens looking out. Pretty surreal and smart by the mother wren.
  9. 12z EPS today definitely looked like a pattern change. I bet that -QBO won't let that hold though....it is tanking. It was -14.42 for August.
  10. Can't see today's Weeklies yet...but the Weeklies from last TR had a transient northwest weeks 2-3 trough w somewhat slightly BN heights continuing in the SE long term after that. I think Jeff sees Monday's Weeklies early. Maybe he could give us a hint. If not, they will roll within a couple of hours. Will try to check back then.
  11. 41.6 degrees on Mt Mitchell at 1:45 PM. http://www.nchighpeaks.org/davis/index.html ...and 51 in Boone.
  12. Well, it is cold as crap up here. LOL. Feels like one of those winter storms that misses to the left...but it is still rainy and blustery in its wake.
  13. Preliminary closures for GSMNP in preparation for any wind damage. https://www.nps.gov/grsm/planyourvisit/temproadclose.htm
  14. The main Tropical thread has several folks mentioning that the 0z Euro missed on today's landfall and overall track as it was too far west...and maybe the GFS did a bit better. Though to be sure the trajectory of the storm makes it difficult to nail in relation to the coast. Still, the Euro did better IMO over the long haul.
  15. Indeed, as noted on the Euro screenshot stamp it is wind gusts. I did add an edited note for newer folks to the site. MRX has finally dialed-in IMO...they look about right from what I can see. (Better than the previous move along the Carolina coast comments) The forecast for Chatt(KCHA) is pretty stout. Sustained 25-30 mph w gusts to 45 mph on Monday night. Again, it will be interesting to see if winds make it that far inland. Opal and Hugo did substantial damage at elevation in E TN. Irma's remanants look a bit west compared to those historic storms. If winds get breezy, hopefully folks will stop by and report it here.