Carvers Gap

The 6z GFS is definitely depicting warm conditions for most of its run - finally spring appears that it will take hold!

Modeling doubling down that cooler than normal temps return for April after this current warm-up, and then one additional warm-up which will follow the next cool down.

I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it. I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds. I still have some dormant areas in the yard. Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold. My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave. Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already). I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready. Still looking at a very late planting for it.

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps. TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN. We had one day which was ~18F BN. I welcome the warmth of the next few days. I need to get some garden/yard work done. It is time for spring! Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up. Modeling has been stellar. The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.

If they have a normal summer, they ski slopes may not lose their snow.

I think I mentioned that earlier in an post, I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even. Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday. Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though. I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference. Models have done exceptionally well so far. They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up. Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.

TRI so far for the month.

Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling. The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change! The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites. I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right? Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner. Spring may be short this year!

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.

Euro Weeklies Update: Nice warm-up later this month. Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold. Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden. First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.

Well. So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

I read where Mt Leconte dropped to 1 degree F.

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1. February had an average of 59.1. For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average. Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal. Our high was 38 degrees. The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's. Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable. The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March. I have yet to start my tomatoes. No way they will go in the ground by late April. I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps. That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

After today, March's average temp will likely be colder than February's. It won't likely last, but that is pretty cool(literally).

I had to double check the thermometer this morning when I went out to run. It looked warm from inside the house. It was not, however, warm outside. I was about to freeze. I had no idea it was that cold. Wind chills at TRI are 19. Crossville and Wise have wind chills in the single digits. It is snowing in the mountains.