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Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. The West has been due several good winters. They desperately needed the water they received this winter. We also were able to get much needed rain. This is one for the ages for our folks in western NA. Again, the models have not been bad this winter...inside of d10 they have been very good. D10+ is just gravy. I can remember a time when they would swing so wildly...they were wholly undependable. The QBO has been lousy. That is one metric that I will never ignore again. Keeping my fingers crossed for March Madness.
  2. 0z EPS again to a big step backwards from the Weeklies as it now has a trough in the West. Most models support this and is very similar to what the models did in early December(GEFS and EPS) which forecast a LR trough in the East only to pull it westward during later runs. At this point unless something changes, that run of the Weeklies either jumped too early or it was just wrong.
  3. I have my skeptic glasses on this AM. While the Weeklies maps sure look decent for weeks 2.0-4.5...the 12z EPS took a rather large step back last night. I certainly think the Weeklies might be on to something...but we have seen this before. Weeklies look nice but the EPS does not support it during subsequent runs. Will be interesting to see future runs. Sure seems like a trough is going to establish itself in the middle of the country. As w the 0z EPS, where that trough axis sets-up is important as we have little room for error being on the eastern edges of it. So, to use a Volquest term...time to pump the breaks on the Weeklies. Also, for most of us outside of elevations...if snow was ever to be in the forecast we really need it to be at night due to the sun's angle. So, that climo fact alone eliminates about half of the time we could see accumulation. Things are quickly working against us now in terms of winter.
  4. Realistically, these windows have been whittled down to about a week once we reach reality and they have tended to moderate as we get closer. Still, an honest assessment is a a normal to BN late winter pattern during the time frame mentioned in my previous post...Do I buy it? Maybe portions of it...the weekly maps make it tempting.
  5. Indeed, the weeklies look good at 500, 850, and 2m for the time frame of very late Feb to mid-March. This is roughly days 11-32 w temps at or below normal w BN the rule. This time frame has been very consistent on the weeklies for quite some time. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But the EPS is beginning to show what is on the weeklies which is cold in the mid-section bleeding southeast. The SER will be a downstream result of the cold in the nation's mid-section but it strongly implies a storm track from the southeast to the northeast.
  6. Do you use a heated mat?
  7. Looks like it phases over PA/NY. But yes, that is a phase or at least a partial phase. Western energy goes to Michigan while the southern piece strengthens on the frontal boundary of the Michigan energy. The southern piece races northward and is absorbed. That has been there for many runs and probably is not completely ironed-out in its details. Lows over the GL area usually mean no snow here. Looks like 850s crash...but too late. Definitely worth watching if not just for the curiosity of being interested in how this plays out. Could be a blizzard for the Plains and/or MidwesrMidwest depending on how the details work out. I hold out slim hopes here...but they are indeed slim.
  8. The models handled this storm really well. Snowed and rained where predicted.
  9. I like the EPS d10-15. Whether it verifies I don't know...but that sort of looks like winter.
  10. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4220320/Officials-investigate-Oroville-Dam-water-level-drop.html
  11. 0z 3 km NAM is pretty interesting for SW VA and the mountains there and E TN.
  12. Weeklies...last one of the season for me unless there are changes. Feb 25 - March 3 look like a decent pattern at 500mb and is reflected as such by 850 temps. As we have often seen this winter, the 2m temps on the model do not correspond to the pattern at 500...and often the model has been correct in showing that. Proceed at your own risk... Looks like a stormy timeframe w some potential. Plenty of energy sliding under a mean eastern trough...eventually the trough retrogrades to the nation's midsection....will comment more later. Some may argue that the storm pattern west of the Apps is decent until mid-March. Temps due to climo and pattern will be an issue that can only be ironed-out event by event. Would think the mtns might do well above 3,500'.
  13. That was a wonky run of the 12z Euro...finally gets a low on the trailing front. Then it falls off a cliff. Yes, I know I said the models were doing well. Just because a run is wonky does not mean the model is bad. The Euro can take a few runs to shift. The 12z was a major break in continuity...and not necessarily in a bad way.
  14. As much as we like to give models a hard time...they have been decent this winter. When have they shown a consistently decent winter threat inside of five days only to take it away? The LR models have struggled in the LR and have given a couple of false positives for cold...but inside of ten days the operationals have been generally warm. We have had little to track and rightfully so w record warm January and February weather.
  15. Yeah, we just like sticking our hand on a hot stove. Can't get enough pain. Been a death star of warmth this winter....need a proton torpedo down the exhaust port to save it, i.e. late season winter storm. I do like seeing the track out of the GOM on repeated GFS runs. That is how things used to be...reocurrring rains or snows originating from a GOM/nor'easter track. I count four-ish on the 12z alone.