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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. As Jeff would say, in the way out there....So, for kicks and giggles, here we go with some "much too early" upcoming winter thoughts. 1. First, the much debated QBO...The positive phase of the QBO tends to last 13-14 months. Assuming that it does not got crazy like the last positive cycle(an anomalously long positive cycle), we are about half way through the positive cycle. That means that we could possibly see the QBO flip negative during January or February. As Jeff has noted previously, it is the trend that matters. So it looks like the QBO will be positive but trending downward. Found a great graphic(does not include solar min influence...which does matter) in that regard. Looks like we will be in "C" - maybe a shot at "A" during the last half of winter. Last winter we basically were in "D". https://blog.weatherops.com/will-the-negative-qbo-increase-the-odds-for-a-colder-winter-this-year 2. Here is the latest QBO data. You can look at the flip that occurred last November. By roughly this upcoming December, it should have run its course. More importantly, it should be dropping by the beginning of winter. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data 3. As for evidence that the QBO is in a phase change, take a look at the cross section of atmospheric winds for the QBO. Unless we have a double dip like the last cycle, one can notice the beginning of the flip in the very upper right hand corner of the graphic. See the blue peaking through near 20mb? That is the beginning of the "downwelling" of the next negative cycle. Again, please note that during the last cycle that the blue appeared and then regressed. The others were fairly clean flips. https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/QBO.html 4. The SOI is now firmly negative which it was not during this past winter. It was positive and was a La Nina signal. https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ 5. Then, we have the solar min. Sunspot numbers have been bleak during the past several weeks. Today is another zero. https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/ 6. ENSO....Just looking at the latest ENSO predictions in Jax's superb ENSO thread, looks like the weak El Nino has a somewhat decent chance of making it into winter. Though, I did read that a Nada is statistically on the table as well....maybe a 1/3 chance for it? 7. Once last nugget...here is a plotter for various weather data. Beware, you might be there a while once you start browsing. Just have to create a log-in. https://mrcc.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/index.jsp 8. Addendum. Meant to throw this into the mix and forgot. The AMO is still positive(positive phase correlates to warm winters in the East) , though it did make a quick, almost statistically insignificant dip into negative territory last winter. It does make me wonder if the downward trajectory correlated somewhat to the cold November last year. Then, during this past December it rebounded at about the same time that we flipped warm. Something to think about. At some point this will flip consistently negative, but that is difficult to predict in yearly increments - probably will flip sometime during the next 5-10 years. https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php Summary: Let me state this post is not a prediction, but merely speculation(and maybe even wild speculation given the relative time frame to the upcoming winter). It is admittedly tough to nail down 3-4 week predictions, much less seasons stabs made during early summer. Until we know the ENSO state for winter(October and November will give us a solid look), any prediction would have very low skill. So, just speculation for DJF. As of right now...looks like a weak to very weak El Nino...maybe even a Nada. It does appear that the NA weather pattern is now actually coupled with the ENSO state as evidenced by a lack of predicted heat waves and decent amounts of rain - finally.(Spring was a scorcher) The solar cycle is approaching what could be a series of cycles that will be classified as a "minimum." The QBO "should" be falling(trending towards negative) as next winter opens. Past that, I am sure there is some index(if not our very latitude) that will likely make every attempt to "screw us" out of a good winter...please reference the over active MJO of 18-19. JB has noted this week that the effects of Super Ninos have lingered several winter seasons after each significant event. I think that supports what some have noted as a current warm climate signal, please reference comments from last winter(TyphoonTip I think) about the basin wide Pacific temp gradient(entire basin was warmer than normal) and how it can actually wash-out a weak El Nino signal. So, early prognostication would seem to at least show a "lean" towards a trough in the East for Jan/Feb with a classic El Nino backloaded winter...unless the MJO can't settle down. If that happens, just expect an ugly winter(maybe just do that anyway and be pleasantly surprised if wrong. LOL.). So maybe an early winter for those in the West and a decent January/February for those in the East west of the Apps. Also, it has been a while since we have seen a good old fashioned winter where all of the NA continent(full latitude trough) was base cold for much of the winter...will we ever see that again? Lastly, what we don't know is where the worst of the cold will set-up in the northern hemisphere for winter. We may not know that for some time and might not even be known until the hemispheric winter pattern actually establishes itself. Remember, sometimes we can have a great pattern but the actual cold stays in Siberia...and doesn't fill the eastern trough. We really need the AMO to go negative and stay there very several years.
  2. I am digging this non...90 degree, oppressive mega heat ridge pattern. Been pleasant up at TRI today. Was out West last week and feels remarkably similar...minus the humidity of course. I go running at 6,000'. Folks ask me if it is difficult. I always tell them that the first couple of days are tough, but the low humidity out there and cool mornings are like paradise. I can generally run 1/3 more than I do here once acclimated. When I get home, breathing at long distance is easier, but the heat is just withering. It has snowed about 8,000' several times since last weekend...the day after I left of course! While we were out there, got a wicked thunderstorm that took shingles off of rooftops. Pretty rare out there since most of those roofs are rated for high winds.
  3. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    When the Euro core is finally put to bed, the great non-storm of Charlotte(remember those 40+" feedback amounts!?) from several years ago should be included in its eulogy. I shared this with a friend of mine who works for ESPN...not sure he has spoken with me since then. LOL. The old GFS snow algorithm should be kept. Always felt like I was living in the Sierra Nevada with each run's clown map...when in reality it was more like Myrtle Beach. Basically I could pretend that I was driving a Ferrari but really it was just a Pinto. This new core must be like driving _______(can't think of a car worse than a Pinto)....maybe a Yugo???
  4. Jax, any ENSO updates for next winter?
  5. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Crazy failure of portion of a dam(spill gate) in New Braunfels, TX, on Tuesday.
  6. I am 100% OK with the Euro having a hot bias...I want no part of that output from overnight. Too early in the season for the furnace.
  7. In the short term, looks like it is about to get hot. Just glanced through one of Robert's posts on WxSouth on FB. 100s in the Piedmont?! Yikes!
  8. You are a brave man watching the Last Jedi more than once. I am a huge Star Wars fan...but if this winter is anything like that movie, gonna be a dud. LOL. I actually like Rogue One and even the somewhat maligned Solo. I think we are in good hands with the last movie though. Anyway, I still think an AMO flip will help us in the long run. Until then, going to be tough sledding. We may all be old men before winter returns!
  9. Time to kick this thread into gear...LOL. No, not really. After the "deluge", things have slowed down in the weather world at least regionally speaking. The "Hurry Up and No" winter just took the life out of me. LOL. So thought I would look ahead. I have done all of about thirty minutes worth of thinking about this...so don't put too much stock in this. Next winter may be a real crap shoot, at least it looks that way right now. The QBO will be due to crash during later winter, and might be falling by Dec/Jan anyway. ENSO is looking very Nada-ish. So early call is a very back-and-forth winter...some winter for the West and some winter for the East. Not a terribly "out on a limb" idea, but just looks that way right now. The Canadian shows some promise early for the East and then switches the cold pattern to the West for Jan/Feb....Wait? What? Didn't we just have that winter pattern?! My guess would be cold early for the East....switch to the West for mid-winter...back East as the QBO tanks. And one last nugget, I may have a dog in the fight now when it comes to the northern Rockies' winters...more on that later. Been super busy lately. It may very well be that I am not a regular again until mid-July. After that, hopefully I will be back in a normal routine.
  10. Carvers Gap

    ENSO 2018-2019

    Again, I would encourage everyone to find the comments (I think it was TyphoonTip) regarding gradient, El Nino, and this past winter. Short story...the Pacific basin as a whole was warmer than normal during this past winter. The El Nino was weak. That created very little gradient, and the atmosphere had some La Nada/Nina characteristics. There needs to be a somewhat sharper ocean temp differential between the Nino area and the rest of the basin. Add in the active MJO(strong Nina characteristic), there is room for plenty of discussion regarding both this past and upcoming winter. Jax, am I reading correctly that the JAMSTEC is slightly south of neutral? Interesting early look there. Have you seen any other LR thoughts on ENSO for next winter? Jax already knows this, but for the new folks....ENSO can be really fickle at this range regarding next winter. We might get some hints with its summer state, but ENSO models aren't super accurate until November when looking at winter. Still, it is nice to look at LR modeling and is the only way to get better. Thanks for the share, Jax. If this next winter is similar to this past one...going to be plenty of surprises(not sure good or bad)!
  11. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    I recommend getting a Twitter account. I only use mine for wx purposes only. I usually find some of the mets from this forum and then follow the people that they follow. I read a lot from other forums as it seems that each forum has some really, really good posters. Pay for a good map suite, even if just for the season of your choice. I also read discussions from CPC, MRX, etc. The government weather services have some really good products. But your best resource IMHO? This sub-forum. It has been quiet because winter ended early. Some truly outstanding posters on this forum along with some outstanding mets. The biggest thing...don't be afraid to discuss and don't be afraid to be wrong....and read everything that you can get your hands from quality sources. Even still, my knowledge is gappy at times. I really like pattern recognition in the d5-15 range and even further. However, when folks start talking about the various waves(think HM)....my head starts swimming. I still don't completely understand all of the nuances that happen in EurAsia(mountain torque, pressure in eastern Siberia, etc) that impact our weather here. It has taken quite a while for me to get a handle on how the MJO works, and I still have a ton of work to do there. I think one area that really helped is that I took a meteorology class at UT as an elective. My professor was TJ Blasing. I think he also worked at ORNL. He taught us basic stuff which I still remember today. Just goes to show how important teachers are...I still remember him teaching us hw cold fronts work(cross section stuff) and warm fronts work. He taught us the physics of high and low pressure and how they work as you get higher in the atmosphere. He taught us how to read actually met produced weather maps. And he also showed us how to look at the atmosphere from a 3-D perspective and not just looking straight down at things from a satellite perspective. He wouldn't remember me from Adam, but I really enjoyed his class.
  12. Carvers Gap

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    From MRX on FB....
  13. Carvers Gap

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Heads up E TN folks and especially NE TN....MRX update. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... The initial line of storms has weakened considerably as it moves into the eastern half of our area. Satellite shows clearing skies over Middle TN that will allow for good surface heating and destabilization this afternoon, in addition to strong warm advection with the southerly flow. SBCAPE values are expected to rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and perhaps higher than that in the southern Valley. This, combined with the dry air aloft and continued high deep layer shear, will result in another round of severe storms in the 3 pm to 9 pm time frame. Hi-res models show redevelopment of storms near the I-75 corridor, taking the form of supercells that evolve into a line as it moves east across NE TN and SW VA. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat due to the dry air and strong winds aloft, and potential for bow segments along the line. LCL heights and 0-1 SRH values also support a tornado threat for the whole area, but favoring areas along I-75 as backing of surface winds may be difficult to achieve in the shadow of the mountains in the northern Valley. Hail may also be a threat given the low WBZ heights, but it appears marginal (dime to quarter- size) looking at CAPE profiles in forecast soundings. Hi-res models are in good agreement that the storms will exit our area around 10 pm.
  14. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    Another great win for Auburn. What is crazy is that most of us prior to the season thought the league title would come down to Auburn and Tennessee. Not sure any of us saw the scenario coming that unfolded over the weekend. UT stole a game from UK. Auburn won four games in four days! The three-ball shooting by the Tigers means you all are never out of a game. Florida looked pretty good against you all, and had a four point lead early. Tigers drained two threes and then had the lead. Happened during a span of like ten seconds (made three, turnover, made three). You all should be fun to watch in the tourney. Tough to guard so many guys that can hit NBA 3s. Congratulations to your Tigers and good luck in the tourney.
  15. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    The February/March snow amounts in the Mountain West have been HUGE even by their standards. A poster from Idaho over in VolQuest noted they received 110" in Island Park Idaho which is just a few minutes from West Yellowstone. Smashed the old monthly record by like 30 inches. Above is the Madison River. Those snow banks along the river rival anything that I have seen them post. Evidently, the snow banks are getting so deep that folks are having difficulty exiting certain sections of the river. Yes, folks fish it during the winter. Great midge hatches. Below that is my absolute favorite fly shop on the planet, Blue Ribbon Flies. I mean the get snow...but that is just sick.