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Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. If you are looking for a sliver lining...PSU mentions that there may be conflicting signals "washing-out" things. Great comments. Like I said...better than my description.
  2. I see your point, but I generally do not agree with that. It is a pretty good forecasting tool..about as good as one could expect. It appears it modeled correctly the upcoming pattern where the trough is leaving the western US. It seems to have accurately caught the relaxation after the upcoming cold shot almost two weeks before the operationals "saw" it. IMO it has missed "big" twice this winter...once w wall-to-wall cold portrayed a few runs ago and once in December when it missed the western trough. Other than that, it has been decent. Its weakness IMO is not seeing cold, very warm biased. Maybe that is in play here. One other weakness may be that it likes to almost default to AN heights during winter in the Davis Straits that don't verify often. Where it is most effective is in modeling the 500mb pattern around the NH. For a model that runs to 46 days, I am not sure we can asked for much more. But it makes good sense on this run...I just don't like the outcome. It ends the long overdue pattern in the west. It sends warm anomalies to AK from eastern Canada. It puts a trough in the East and builds a PNA ridge. But as we have seen all winter, no help in the Atlantic and the cold in the East does not hold. Even a -EPO is not holding the cold. As Bob Chill has been saying in the MA, we have gotten away w bad teleconnections during the past few winters. But generally, a ++AO/+NAO is not good for winter wx on the EC. Now, these two time periods modeled on the Weeklies are juicy...but will they have precip for the mid and southern valleys? It has been consistent in marking these two time frames. So, we have a shot at some winter wx. One good Miller A and nobody remembers the lack of tracking.
  3. A better description, but no less ugly...
  4. As suspected due to the 0z run...Weeklies are a crap fest. Week 2 has a decent trough as modeled on the operationals. Week 3 goes zonal. Week 4...the eastern trough re-amplifies. Form there, it is a western ridge and eastern trough w above normal heights and 850 temps. In other words, we have two time frames that look like winter, weeks 2 and 4. After week 4, no BN heights are found in all of North America, even w the trough. The last gasp is that maybe the Weeklies are having their usual disconnect between the pattern and temps. We have two time frames to score and then it looks like prolonged meh.
  5. 12z EPS is a good example of what I mentioned earlier....and the uncertainty thereafter. Ridge rolls east in what is an apparent reload of the pattern...but I lean that way in my thinking just barely. Tough to tell if a trough is setting up in the west or just passing through. Based on cold reloading and heading southeast out of northern Canada late in the run...looks like the western trough is transient. Though I am not certain. This feature(eastern ridge) is shown on all ensembles to some extent late in their runs. Maybe the weeklies will shed some light on that. On Monday, they showed something similar and brought the trough back in the East shortly after. However, the Weeklies on Monday pulled the PV so far north that it allowed the pattern to go zonal. The MJO looks to have nailed the upcoming cool down. After this trip to 8,1,2,3...it goes into the COD and tries to come back into favorable phases after a break. The dropping SOI is a good hint. It is at -33.54 today according to Long Paddock.
  6. Definitely some tempered cause for concern in the distant LR as the PNA ridge rolls eastward. Some modeling holds it in place longer. Tough to tell if another PNA ridge builds right behind it. There are some zonal looks as the PV retreats too far north to press the trough. There are some looks where the PV rotates spokes of cold. Not a slam dunk in any direction. If forced I would say 7-10 days of good cold weather after the current warm-up...followed by zonal...and then things diverge. Not sure.
  7. Hopefully to get the conversation rolling again...12z GFS and Euro look very good. The 12z GEFS keeps the PV near Hudson Bay. This allows AN heights to work underneath late in the period. Tough to tell if a reload or a move to a zonal pattern is in the works...for which there is some support. The GEPS never locks in the PNA ridge which is a break IMO from other models including its 0z run...excluding the EPS as it is not out yet. Some cold looks. The debate now is how long can the PNA ridge hold? Have to think the weeklies tonight are going to be pretty meh as the 0z Euro and ensemble were not inspiring late in the run.
  8. Digging around found a great site for looking at the Earth's atmospheric river. Current gif... Link:http://mead.ucsd.edu
  9. Got it to work this time. This is a gif of the event that brought heavy snows to the West coast and flooding rains that filled reservoirs.
  10. Jax, any updates on next week?
  11. When we refer to a flip...this is a flip. 18z GEFS. Hour 0 to 384....During the next 16 days the GEFS portrays a flip of the anomalies for almost all of NA. Pattern change is set to begin sometime around Jan25th.
  12. BIG area (edit..typo) of BN anomalies near northern shore of HB flattens the PNA a bit more than 0z. Ridge over the Aleutians is stronger late in the run.
  13. Pretty similar to 0z...late in the run stronger BN heights descending on Hudson Bay.
  14. Factor in the variable John mentioned, then the upcoming solar min, favorable QBO, and the potential flip of the AMO in coming years....could make some serious money in the stock market if you could predict it w accuracy.
  15. Here is the link for the first NAO graph... https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-station-based