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Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Folks in the western forum area would come back online in January of 2023.
  2. I will go on the record and say this pattern has overrunning written all over it. No idea where...but it tried it this weekend over the Carolinas.
  3. 37 here. Cold is banked up against the Plateau.
  4. 12z Euro has a really good look in terms of slp on Tuesday. The CMC was close, but had a less robust system. Given the Euro's propensity to overdo things of late....prob need to wait on some support for that run. I am really to the point the GFS has to be on board. Has the GFS become the new/temporary "Dr No?"
  5. 12z Euro....At 162, IDK..this may also get the eastern valley.
  6. Would be mainly for middle and west TN to be clear, but that is a good look.
  7. 12z Euro with another significant winter storm look on Tuesday.
  8. One other interesting thing....As the trough begins to retrograde back into the West during the last days of Jan and early Feb, all of that out-to-sea(OTS) confluence is going to retrograde inland. If we can time the pattern as things retrograde, we could see 1-2 storms along the coast. That is why I am somewhat interested in the middle of next week and the following weekend. PSU is mentioning that in the MA forum. So, looks like a window that is being watched by a few.
  9. I really think right now it is not so much a continuous suppressed pattern(this weekend is...) as it is that cold and the STJ are out of sync. If those couple, watch out. Most of the really cold air(which we saw on modeling last week) is not showing up on modeling this week. So, I suspect this forum is going to be on the boundary between rain and snow. Good place to be if we want to see a storm. The bigger problem we have is the "warm up and rain" deal which is a consequence of precip heading north between cold snaps. Need that to get back in sync with cold shots. Looks like that "may" happen by mid-week next week.
  10. I 100% agree that cold patterns can get quite dry and suppressed. So, point well taken. I think we get back in the game by maybe middle of next week. Looks quiet until then. But who knows, you may get something with this frontal passage TR/FR. I think a pattern change is likely by early February. The question is whether the new pattern will be warm? Looks like ensembles give us roughly 2-3 more weeks of a good pattern. Then the trough flips west. The interesting things is the pattern still stays cool for us through roughly mid-February. Fortunately, this is mid-winter and not December which didn't have established/deep cold and had that crazy block which prevented even the most meager of cold fronts to come eastward. I suspect we may see a more traditional set-up where the Mountain West is cold but it pushes to the Apps, super similar to last winter(maybe Feb as well?). It may be the pattern is a mix of cutters (which press the cold southeast) and then coastal storms. Probably will be base warm, but active IMHO. Yeah, you all have done well on the Plateau. Super jealous! LOL.
  11. This winter reminds me more and more of a 95-96'(2.0 lighter version). We have a lull right now, but that winter came back after a couple of weeks. Hard not to be excited about the pattern next week. No guarantees. You all know the drill. BUT that is a crap ton of cold air and energy in the pattern starting Tuesday/Wednesday and onward.
  12. Next week we see the pattern begin to relax a bit. Guessing we see some things to track around that time frame. We aren't going to get them all. Three valid storm threads during the past 16 days is rare air!
  13. Nah. This isn't Jan 17-18 at all. There have been a ton of storms to track so far this season. That was insanely dry weather back in 17-18. This pattern is nothing like that. The STJ is active. The cold is not as intense which allows storms to track at much higher latitudes. We just don't live at a latitude where it snows every week. The past two weeks have been a great run for many. Heck, IMBY, we probably have had less than most, but it has still been good. I like next week. Tuesday is a time frame to watch. I think this weekend is a whiff. Honestly, the storm doesn't seem to be getting itself together. Maybe that changes, but just seems anemic at this point. So, on to the next one. Tuesday looks like a minor system on the 12z GFS, and maybe something cooking right after that if the 0z Euro is correct. 12z GFS has that late week system as well.
  14. Trends matter at this point. Modeling didn't exactly slam the door on snow falling in far E TN this weekend. The 6z Euro has it. The 0z CMC has it as does the RGEM. The GFS does not at 6z, but did at 0z. @Math/Met has some good insight above. To me, I can't rule out some light snow in E TN, especially the NE areas. Trends will be important today. If it is going to move, we will need to see that process begin today. Micro move in the right direction last night, but going to need more than that.
  15. Interestingly, the NAM nailed the NW trend first on the last storm. The long range NAM keeping hope alive!!!
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