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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. What is going to be a pain is that -NAO is likely going to go into a positive phase soon. Will be interesting to see the QBO at the end of this month. If it starts to fall at some point between now and December, that is a very good sign.
  2. Great post, Jax. What is crazy is how wet that the year started...some places were close to near records as John noted earlier by mid-year...also as noted on Jax's map above. I mean we have a thread regarding concerns of full TVA reservoirs from spring. What is even crazier is how quickly things have dried out. MBY has thankfully received some decent rain this week. Maybe I need to talk about how dry the pattern looks more often(like washing my car). Here is the drought monitor map for the US. What is notable is drought developing around the TN river corridor in northern Alabama and some moderate to extreme drought developing in central Alabama. Would be great to get a report from someone in that area. Until the rain from the last couple of days, my yard was beginning to look about as bad as it has ever looked. I think it likely that the cooling SSTs in the easter equatorial Pacific along with seasonal temperance of the late summer precip pattern have likely "turned off the spigot." We really have been in a similar pattern since early December of last year with some periodic moderation. I "think" we are about to see a fairly significant shift in the atmospheric weather pattern over NA as evidenced by the reduction in precip in relation to SSTs over the SE. Obviously, part of that pattern change will simply be a response to the changing of seasons and the march towards winter. A quick note on the Euro Weeklies...I had noticed this and JB mentioned it today. They are absent of any cold air in the LR...like none over most of NA. They have missed the cool intrusions into the nation's mid-sections. They simply don't appear to be able to see cool air past about week 2 or 3. This is even more than their normal bias. The CFS is cold, and likely overly much. Anyway, the 500 pattern on the Weeklies does imply that a trough might develop over the EC by early October w a corresponding trough just east of HI. I wonder if the Labor Day "cool down" might actually be a precursor to the current pattern finally breaking, but not before rebounding for a period after Labor Day.
  3. Carvers Gap

    The Garden Thread

    Impressive and thanks for the information and the share. That is A LOT of compost volume standing there.
  4. Carvers Gap

    The Garden Thread

    Yeah, I was worried about that vetch...I already have it in my garden anyway! LOL. 120!? Wow. I assume you are hosting the TN Valley Wx Spaghetti dinner with that much tomato action! Keep us updated on the hemp situation. How do you market that? I am assuming that is the for the oil which is a big time product right now. Hey, at least you won't have to can all that hemp. Definitely going to need a pic of 10-12 foot plants!
  5. Still looks like a nice shot of cool air is going to be here around Labor Day weekend. Some divergence in modeling(understandably at that range) if the ridge in the East will return or be completely beat down post-Labor Day. I am probably 50/50 on that. Given our recent Fall patterns, the heat likely returns. With that big ridge(EPO?)popped over the western Pacific, it likely opens the door for at least some cool air to push periodically into the SE after Labor Day. It will depend on the amplitude of the downstream trough though. A higher amplitude trough puts the cooler air into the nation's mid-section...a broader trough at least gets seasonal to the spine of the Apps in regards to the post-Labor Day pattern. Basically, the skinny is that the ridge that has been so dominant of late is going to get pushed out to sea or at least to the coast by Labor Day. The question is whether the ridge returns to the East...sometimes modeling is correct in bringing back the original pattern and sometimes it is incorrect in trying to perpetuate the old pattern. The 0z EPS wants to have the ridge rebound while the GEFS is less enthusiastic...both within the bias of each model so who knows! Keep an eye on the ENSO thread, some good stuff in there. Also, Joe D'Aleo is definitely kicking around the idea that a turn to a BN pattern for the EC may return sometime in late Sept or early October. I tend to agree just based on some digging that I have done. But with the crazy Typoon Tip gradient in the Pacific, it is literally like trying to find your way through the dark...
  6. Carvers Gap

    The Garden Thread

    @Stovepipe, my garden remained fallow this year. Going to plant a fall cover crop which I have not done prior. Going to roll with a mix and see how it works. Likely will order some garlic as well...was awesome a couple of years ago. Here is what I am using...thoughts? Hey, and how has your gradient been this summer. I am glad to not be watering through this heat! https://www.johnnyseeds.com/farm-seed/cover-crop-mixes/fall-green-manure/fall-green-manure-mix-cover-crop-seed-2613.36.html Probably going to add some fall salad stuff and definitely some garlic.
  7. Fingers crossed that a nice little pattern change is being shown on the ensembles(GEFS, EPS) this morning. Maybe the first cold front of the season around Labor Day? Pattern change potentially arrives with that front as well. Big ridge goes up over the West and at the very least knocks down the heat over much of the East with maybe even coastal areas getting involved over time. Still 10+ days out there so everyone knows the rules(huge grain of salt). The 6z GFS would be pretty awesome for the first full football Saturday of the year. The potential for normal or slightly BN is something that a few folks have been kicking around for a week or two, so let's hope that comes to fruition...meaning fall like temps.
  8. JB shared the Euro Weeklies through September...about as warm over NA as one can get in a LR model. Looking at Jax's Jan 2013 model and I thought it looked similar. Check out 2019 so far over the Lower 48. Pretty uncanny resemblance regarding the placement of warmth...also note that one is a 500 map and the other surface temp anomalies. In some ways, I think that pattern has been in place for about eight months already.
  9. Try this...let me know if it works. If not, I will grab some snippets. BTW, I am not completely sure what the ENSO is up to...I have a pretty detailed post in the ENSO thread. Jax has some good stuff their recently from the JAMSTEC. Hey, I now have access to Euro seasonal stuff!
  10. It is free if you have Facebook. Just search for WxSouth. You know me...I will write a 5,000 word essay before teasing you all. LOL. I just didn't expound since it wasn't a pay site. Skinny...Thinks that a weak La Nina will be good...mentions TN as a being in a good spot. All speculation he freely admits. D'Aleo had a great post on WxBell today regarding the 93-94 analog going into fall. Thinks that OND will be BN in terms of temps. Also thinks that the cooler temps forecast in the LR over the northern Plains will eventually build into an eastern trough that becomes a mid-late fall stable pattern. I am tired of the heat...so I am freely stating that I am wish casting for a some cool fall weather...or at least just dream about it.
  11. Joe D'Aleo had a great post on the Pacific setup potential leading to a colder OND about a week ago. He also mentioned the flooding today. Pretty uncanny how close the setup looks compared to July. Everything is slightly displaced, but similar features. Two inches of rain in twenty minutes! Holy Moly!
  12. Thanks. I was out of the country during that summer as I shared in the ENSO thread. I put some analog stuff over there as well. The current Pacific set-up is quite similar to the summers of 93 and 05, though not a perfect match. They are also quite similar in how the ENSO pattern unfolded during the couple of years that preceded each. Anyway, so I noticed it was very dry here during '93. However, there was a strong precip anomaly(heavy rain) centered over the mid-West and eastern Plains. The similarity is that precip area is now displaced south and east this summer...and the MS river is has run full since spring, though not sure of its current status. The winter of '94 is the one I always forget in terms of cold, because Knoxville didn't get as much snow as the Plateau. However, the winter was reasonably severe in terms of cold outbreaks. I do think that might have been the winter where I got caught in a convective snow squall near the Cherry St exit - what a mess. Just kicking around some things during late summer. Thanks again for the info. I always say that I trust your climatology information over pretty much all other sources.
  13. Carvers Gap

    ENSO 2018-2019

    So in honor of me saying that analogs are likely untrustworthy as we approach the winter season, let's look at where we are today...or close to it. Oddly, I have tried to remember the summer of '93 and can't remember it. Well, there is a reason for that. I wasn't in North America! I was in the Middle East all summer(non-military). What I do remember is news of the Mississippi flooding. Anyway, I can find a few similar times to where we are now in terms of the ENSO cycle. 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06. 95-96 had more of a La Nina raging by August than now...so I am going to discard that for the moment. However, the summers of 93 and 05 looked fairly familiar in terms of the actually look of the SST temps vs comparing graphs. August 12, 2019 August 1993 August 16, 2005 Here are the composite temps for May through July for 1993/2005... and here is the precip map. Here is 2019... Plenty of similarities on the analog composites. 2019 has surface temps in similar areas but warmer. 2019 has AN precip in the nation's heartland but displaced further south and east. Both winters were wildly different but yielded normal to slightly BN temps over the TN Valley for winter. Where they were significantly different was over the northern Plains during the following winters. I didn't include that composite of the two analogs because they are so different that the composite map actually does a misrepresents the two winters. 05-06 is wildly warm over the Norther Plains and 93-94 is cold...almost opposites in those areas. That said, again, the SE is normal/cool during both. addendum: One can also not on the SST maps that the overall look of the 2019 Pacific map is warmer and is washing out the gradient in the northern hemisphere and might render moot the downstream ENSO implications over NA. Reference to Isotherm and TyphoonTip again.
  14. Carvers Gap

    ENSO 2018-2019

    Good stuff, Jax. IDK about the JAMSTEC. That is another big change in continuity for it. I generally like that model, but it struggled last winter as did the Euro Weeklies. If I had to bet, I think the regions closer to SA will be slightly BN in terms of SST and the regions to the West will be slightly AN. That seems to be a commonality at least for Fall on modeling. So, what I can't decide is whether that has a Modoki look or if it is a week Nina. I am beginning to subscribe to the idea that Robert from WxSouth is floating, and that is that typical ENSO patterns are not producing correlating results in relation to past analogs. I think the gradient will be the issue now in terms of SST(giving a nod to TyphoonTip). Pretty much the entire Pac basin is atypically warm. Now, Isotherm just posted(maybe on the main board now) about how the over-amped Pac may likely produce a very active Pacific jet. We saw that last winter as it just hammered the northern Rockies. I have never seen so much snow in my life(visited in late March last year)....they still had snow up to the second floors of their buildings on April 1st in West Yellowstone, MT. So, I wonder if we see another year with a very active Pacific jet. What I don't know is how the cooler water near SA is going to impact that fire hose. Does it buckle the jet(if so, where?) or does it just allow a zonal flow as this winter's norm? Also the warmer temps in the GOA are going to have to be reckoned with. Even if analogs could be used, seems like very few match the warm basin look along with the very warm water in the GOA. I have seen 93-94 kicked around and maybe 14-15...but do those analogs even work as there is very little gradient in the Pacific right now. I still think the mean trough is east of the Rockies(maybe up against the foothills on its westward extent) and is west of the Apps(maybe barely). I also think this winter is going to be similar to 17-18 in that it has extremes that tend to flip back and forth during winter. Hey, and great thread as always. Thanks for sharing those maps. Definitely not a boring ENSO look as it is sort of wild looking. I suspect we are in new territory right now in terms of the ENSO. This is when I would like to have an atmospheric physics degree(without having to put in all of that work to get it...LOL).
  15. Carvers Gap

    Spring-Summer Observations 2019

    @Holston_River_Rambler pretty interesting to see the storms roll off Bays tonight. Looks like the winter time snow deal that you have studied some. The animation is pretty cool. Maybe a little lift from Bays Mtn which sits at 2300’ and maybe some lift from the industrial heat dome?