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Carvers Gap

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  1. A bit of a lazy comment upcoming....lots of modeling is foreshadowing cooler weather right at the end of this month and into an undetermined time frame during November. Source region is in question. However, pattern amplification into an EC trough is growing more likely as several models and their ensembles are supporting this pattern along with some Weeklies modeling - notably the Euro. See commentary above and someone go get Jeff out of banter! LOL. j/k. Nothing is a slam dunk at this range, and we all know modeling will often show an EC cold snap, and then it dumps into the West first. That has been a model bias during the past several years. Plenty of talk of an early strat warm event. John mentioned that in the winter thread I think. Some great discussion there.
  2. 18z GFS shows the potential for the late month pattern and early Nov pattern(though it doesn't quite get to Nov). Deep trough amplification and a phase along the eastern seaboard which(this far out) could be anywhere. I think the chances for a powerful coastal or inland runner are there.
  3. Great post by John there. Going to post a couple of links for why we double dip with La Nina's and a graphic of how the second in the series is usually weaker. Also, great ENSO update today in regards to winter. Lots of great stuff in those links. Great disco past few days! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/double-dipping-why-does-la-niña-often-occur-consecutive-winters https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-niña-here?fbclid=IwAR04Y3Kpyl8pTfS19Uy0XuBKxxPVPWLuQ9tlGV7VbBSvpTNijCerDvFLKEU
  4. LOL. Posted something similar in the fall discussion thread on Monday. On second thought, banter was probably the better choice....but it was a slow day. Kind of unreal how nice the set-up for the time frame is! And yes, huge grain!!!
  5. I think seasonal models have struggled of late due to analog packages not working. We have seen a lot of "opposites of what we would expect" during the last few years. I do think this La Nina may "reset" the Pacific basin for a time(future winters/not this one), and allow traditional analogs to have some merit again in the future. No idea if the GOA trough holds. It can be stubborn to move. Looks like it is on the GFS right now, but this is still mid-fall so no worries at this time of year. I am guessing that the Euro Weeklies may be favoring a moderate-ish La Nina - I haven't looked at its SSTs so just a guess. If so, that would explain the torch over the East for much of winter...but again, the last few winters have not not played nicely in regards to traditional wx patterns. I would suggest the IO and western Pac will still have a say here. If the MJO is the driver, La Nina may well make it tough for waves to propagate into phases 7, 8, and 1 - will depend on how far back the La Nina stretches to the West. And again, La Nina's behave differently over the forum area. Last year was a fantastic example. Memphis was downright frigid and snow. Never really made it to TRI after the Christmas week cold in December. Would not surprise me to see a similar pattern repeat.
  6. Euro Weeklies continue to strongly hint at an eastern trough amplification during early November(second week?). Would involve blocking in Greenland hooking in with a PNA ridge which creates a broad area of banana high pressure over NA. Honestly, that looks like a winter storm set-up for those a few degrees in latitude to our north and for our higher elevations. Would not surprise me to see an early season snow in those areas. Still likely a little too warm here due to climatology, but wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes in the air here.
  7. Euro seasonals look rough. To echo Cosgrove, wx models really like a GOA low. That is no beuno for here. Biggest feature I am seeing is a ridge over the eastern US which persists as a dominant feature for the next 4-6 months. Very little encouraging in that run - like zip.
  8. Euro Weeklies in addition to the seasonal CANSIPS, banging the drum for a fairly significant high latitude blocking pattern to develop later this month and into November. Basically, a HB bay block builds into a Greenland block. Euro Weeklies are generally always warm at the surface, but the pattern at 500 is one that would bring significantly colder air at least to the western slopes of the Apps if not all the way to the EC. Huge grain of salt at this range, but there are hints of pattern which could produce BN temps. Would not surprise me at all to see the first snowflakes of the season flying during the first couple of weeks of November. But we will see. That is my "bold" prediction for a soggy Friday morning - meaning seeing some snowflakes during November is not exactly unusual at all and pretty much right on time.
  9. That would be early. Are early SSWs more favorable for the EC?
  10. Torch city. I haven't seen the Euro seasonal yet though, just CANSIPS. The CFSv2 is usually all over the place from run to run. The Euro Weeklies are hinting at some cold pressing SE during the early to mid part of November. My initial thoughts have been for a cold December. HOWEVER, if the cold arrives in early November, we could actually see a thaw at some point in December. LOTS of speculation there on my part as there are several solution paths on the table, and I am only talking about one path in (cold in November). If the cold arrives later in November, that lends itself to a cold December as a whole. Throw in what John is saying and it would look something like this.....cold November ---> thaw at some point during December ---> cold arriving again by mid to late January. What we really don't want to see are the high latitude regions emptied of their cold source during November. Might make it tough to reload, and some models are hinting at that solution. But ya'll know the drill, this is speculation and this could go any of several different directions not mentioned and usually does. Chaos is difficult to predict. When we are discussion things in the 4-10 week range, that needs to be taken (as John notes) with huge boulders of salt.
  11. New CANSIPS is showing a very cold pattern for November. Blocking is depicted in EPO and Greenland regions with a deep trough over much of NA. If true, like it or not....our best shot at winter may be very early in the season, but take that with a huge grain of salt.
  12. Weeklies (Euro) are showing signs of high latitude blocking towards the end of October. Not sure we want that in place quite yet. Would essentially mean ~6 week blocking episode if we go by 4-6 week pattern cycles. Means mid-Dec could be warm. Way too early to guess that. However, early season blocking might be a good sign for winter...so there is that. Looks to me like the summer heat is gone.
  13. To echo @John1122 in the banter, starting to see some signs of a temporary breakdown of the EC ridge complex as several storms traverse the western Atlantic and drive the cool boundary every southward. I like it. I like it a lot.
  14. Spoke way too soon. Models have returned this morning to near record heat for some in the forum area. My point and click is now 93. That is not a record high for Tuesday, but pretty sure it would be fo Wednesday. I don't see a lot of support in modeling for that point and click, but the wx pattern with HP over us definitely supports very high temps. Really hate weather like this during fall. It is not unprecedented, but I still don't like it.
  15. Other models have finally come back to normal for next week as John noted the extreme temps seem dubious. Need the Euro to back off today, and we may have some consensus for seasonably warm temps vs crazy hot. Temps IMBY have dropped 5-7 degrees since the earlier runs re: next Tuesday.
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