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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. More rain here. Some great cloud formations here tonight. Volatile and rolling cloud formations. Sky just went dark when those storms came through.
  2. @John1122, of the third year La Ninas, how many of those winters began early, i.e. December?
  3. Re-upped my model package this month. So, here goes. Temp forecast above looks similar to the Euro seasonal which just came out. I am not tooting my own horn, I just don' want to have to retype it. November is warm. Rest of the seasonals look on target. Remember. TOTAL crapshoot from this far out. I will say if the seasonals are correct....we can absolutely live with that.
  4. Considering bumping Jan-Feb to +3F for the 60 day time frame. With the QBO set to be firmly positive by the winter in conjunction with a La Nina and poor PDO state for cooler temps...this winter has some torch potential. That said, sometimes when things seemed line-up up perfectly for heat or cold, they do they opposite. So, I remain guarded. This winter is a tough call - three straight Ninas? That said, if the Nina is weak enough, I think we still see plenty of cold and plenty of warm - similar swings to last winter. For DJF, I would say temps will finish AN to well AN. Areas east of the Plateau should keep there hopes tempered in regards to snow, especially NE TN. Just not a great set-up at this point. That said, keep on cooling the Pacific so that the gradients return...and I am good.
  5. Interesting stuff. Maybe not excited to know that this will cause warming for up to 6-8 years due to the amount of water vapor injected in the upper atmosphere. Still -> fascinating. https://www.foxnews.com/science/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-fill-olympic-size-swimming-pools-stratosphere
  6. Yeah, man. I just quite watering the grass altogether. I couldn't keep up. My yard has gone from zero to hero.
  7. These rain showers remind me of the afternoon showers in Florida - very heavy and drop a lot of rain in a hurry.
  8. Not good. Yeah, it was terrible here until about three weeks ago. Pretty sure at one point we were pushing 4 weeks with barely a drop in my back yard. About 20% of my yard is still just dead and soggy brown. The other half looks like Florida during rainy season - lush and green. It is surreal to see this much rain after barely a drop. The effects of the drought(which just ended) are numerous. If we had gone about two more weeks, we would have had severe fire issues. Spring was very dry IMBY. I raise a batch of beans on city water pretty much. For you folks in KY and Virginia, my heart goes out to your communities. I cannot imagine. Hang in there.
  9. Totally knew this would happen after stating the above....now the system has dropped south of the VA line. Going to get a few rounds of rain here it looks like.
  10. Yeah, Nina summers never want to end. I am not sure I can think of one which ended early. Oddly, I think I remember @John1122mentioning that some Nina summers can have a lot of precip. Right now, it is a good lesson on how Kingsport gets much less precip than every one else(even within a short distance), and I am not complaining this go around. Storms are sliding through @1234snow's neighborhood currently. We had one passing shower here. About 5 miles to my north, flood warnings are posted due to training of storms. It has been that way all week. We have had our share of rain, but nothing like what the folks in SW VA and KY are experiencing. Temps IMBY have finals moderated from the 90s furnace that consumed the first half of summer. The humidity is another story altogether. And yes, this pattern has been locked in for weeks. Ridging out West and ridging over the SE. The Plains...better make sure their AC is primed and working. Man.
  11. LOL. That is strange stuff. I see it this morning over the same spot. What in the world?
  12. One the plus side, my yard was gone from "crispy brown" to green in the places which are still alive! Whiplash gardening this summer to paraphrase @1234snow.
  13. Yeah, this kind of how I remember it as a kid. What I fear the most are the extended droughts like the year we had the forest fire on the west slopes of the Smokies. The back and forth pattern with July being rainy is what I remember. I also remember August being almost always hot. That said, usually we would get our first cold front before the middle of September. There is less fall than when I was a kid. On the flip side, it almost never snowed at my home(Knoxville then) before Jan1. Lately, we have had more snow in Nov/Dec than when I was a kid. During the past few winters, it seems like most of the winter wx IMBY has come prior to Jan1. But still, one common denominator of the last 20 years seems to be that summer lasts well into September. It would be nice to catch an early fall this year though I don't expect it due to La Nina. As an aside and not directed at 1234....Man, I feel terrible for the folks in Yosemite right now. Big fire there. What is crazy is that the Cascades north of California seemed to have done ok in regards to snow pack. That said, it is has been HOT out West in places and no amount of snowpack is going to keep the forests from drying out in that heat. Sometimes, great snowpack just adds more fuel for the fire season later that summer.
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