Carvers Gap

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    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. When Jeff uses "BOHICA" in a post about the long term pattern, we know things in the wx world are about to go to crapcon 1. Man, we got absolutely drilled by a storm this evening. That humidity and sun are creating some heavy hitters. What is crazy is I can look at a storm and the normal rules don't apply. I have seen east to west storms. I have seen storms to my west on a true north to south trajectory. We have been hit from the southeast by storms. I have seen storms form and not move at all. But we got hammered today. Half of my corn got knocked over. It was a really howler. VERY thankful for the water!!!
  2. LOL. Well, crap. And that is a top 5 afternoon disco of all time. That is awesome.
  3. Yep, IMHO we have flipped quickly to a Nina pattern. Tonight's Euro Weeklies do offer some hope as the worst of the 500 anomalies switch to the Mountain West by August. But I know that once these death ridges go into place...they have been tough to budge. Right now, MBY is depending on stray thunderstorms for anything in the way of moisture. You Plateau folks need to send some of that our way in the TRI(west of 26). I was really hoping the Nino hangover pattern would hang on through September. Maybe we can still get a little milage from it. But whew! The heat is here. What makes it tougher is that May and June were pleasant - so not acclimated to this yet!
  4. Great share. Your Hickory Cane corn is massive. As for how my garden is doing? Pretty much switched over to all summer stuff. This was a big year for potatoes and garlic. Summer stuff is about 2-3 weeks behind due to the late start, but it is going to hit in a wave pretty soon. Been a banner pepper year. I will try to get some pics uploaded later. My garden looks night and day to what it was two months ago. It has gone nuts. Copper spray has kept much of the disease away on my tomatoes - so far. Should be a really good garden year. Need more rain as this heat really sucks the moisture right out of the ground. No amount of humidity can slow moisture loss in 90+ degree heat. The soil just gets baked.
  5. Well, we knew we couldn't dodge it forever. The furnace has kicked in big time. Looks like very warm temps for a couple of weeks. The Euro Weeklies and CFS Weeklies do hint that it will back off by later this month and into August. I am sort of glad that the heat is kicking. It might mean that the heat does its thing. Then, we go into a typical fall pattern - maybe. I give this shot of heat 14-20 days before it runs its course, and then we see another front knock back the temps. Again, sometimes summers that get started late last well into, having summer right now is a good thing IMHO. Ground here is definitely getting very dry with the heat. We have not had near the rain that others have had. FTR, I still think this ridge backs into the Rockies during the second half of July. But....this is a hot time of year, so it is still going to be warm.
  6. Northern Plateau(and evidently portions of Knoxville referencing Powell's report) is like living in the Costa Rican rain forest lately!!!!
  7. Pretty amazing for sure. Good example of that phenomenon just in E TN depicted on an MRX tweet. Some areas of Knoxville look like they received 4-5" of rain. We finally got a storm on Tuesday that produced well here. Prior to that, it was getting pretty dry. The Plateau(I know John as shared his huge amounts of recent rain) has done well. NE TN can get in a bit of a rut during summer. We have a weak rain shadow in every direction but to our southwest. Depending on where one is in the TRI will greatly influence which rain shadow is most influential. In Kingsport, northwest flow of any kind is usually gobbled up by the mountains to our NW in KY and SW VA. That said, we do really well on SLPs which track to our SE as those often produce more lift here. Opposite is generally true for Johnson City. Then, there is the weird snow convergence zone between JC and Kingsport which @Holston_River_Rambler has shown a few times. But yeah, Knoxville has scored big during the past week. I know Jeff has said it a few times, there are some similarities to Chattanooga and TRI in how precip can be diminished at the valley floor. Sometimes it is just comical. Good to see some folks getting rain. That might keep the drought monster(and extreme heat) at bay for a bit longer. I think many areas have caught-up just a bit since that graphic was produced on the 29th for that 12 hour time frame.
  8. Looks like a warm couple of weeks beginning in a couple of days. If the Euro Weeklies are correct, the ridge which pushes eastward will revert back into the West yet again by mid-July. We will see if that verifies. Seems to have been the pattern this summer. TRI is at 0.0 in terms of temp departures from normal - meaning we are normal here. That means we have basically stolen four potential warm weeks from summer's grasp. In about four more weeks, we will begin to get a better idea of how early fall will unfold on some modeling.
  9. Going to keep it simple this year... December: Seasonal temps / BN precip January: AN temps / BN precip February: AN temps / BN precip Best chances for snow will occur late November into early January. Expecting a big thaw in January this year, BUT I do think we see bouts of serious cold this winter despite my AN temps forecast. I was really bullish at the end of last winter regarding the upcoming winter being a dud. And it may well be. Strong to moderate La Nina's are generally a non-starter IMBY. The good news, as I have stated before, is that we really need the Pacific to cool down some, and it has been some time since we have seen a strong La Nina. Winters that have followed strong La Ninas can be pretty good in MBY, so I will suffer through a strong Nina event if need be this winter. That said, we all saw last winter when phase 7-8-1 had constant precip last winter and the MJO would not go there at all. I don't think that happens this winter with La Nina - meaning those regions should have cooler SSTs and less convection propagating through them. If anything, the door is open for the MJO to at least cycle through colder phases 2-3 times IMHO. I don't think it locks into those regions, but who knows....I don't close the door on anything this far out. The IO is yet another unknown. While I won't be surprised to see several waves propagate eastward this winter from the IO, I think a BN SST setup in MJO regions 7, 8, and 1 will potentially weaken those waves. So, here are my components for the upcoming winter in order of importance: 1. Moderate La Nina: That should dry things out this fall, maybe even causing an early start to winter. The question is, "When does the atmosphere transition to a Nina pattern?" Right now, still looks like a hungover Nino pattern. What would be swell is if the Nino pattern could hang on long enough to temper the normally prolonged summer that Nina's are known for. Then, even better, Nina kicks in and we get early season cold. We have a shot at that combo the longer that Nino holds on. However, have to think some much AN heat will show up during September at some point with a quick flip to cold in November. 2. MJO sea surface regions 7, 8, and 1 "should" cool off. That will balance point one, and provide maybe some temporary but severe bouts of cold. 3. The SER. I think it sets up shop on the EC. "Where?" is the question. Ideally, we want it closer to the coast. If it bulls its way westward, then E TN will fight it all winter. Might not be a terrible thing for areas in west TN though, and even middle. If we can get it to belly into the coast only, we could do better than my above forecast. 4. Precip is likely to be BN in MBY. That means even if it gets cold, we have fewer pitches to swing at. But honestly, last winter was pretty crappy. We can always do worse, but odds are that this year won't be. 5. Nina winters usually have a tendency to send some severe cold into the SE even though the overall winter is AN in the norms. 6. QBO. It has stalled a bit lately. If it comes back up, we have trouble. We do not want a short negative phase. My guess is that this stall might mean that get 1-2 more months of negative(referring to the 14 month phase lasting a bit longer) than normal. That means we could make it most of winter with a decent QBO. It would be better if the QBO were to go positive in late April or May vs March. 7. Wildcard....Just how hot will it get this summer/early fall in the SE? Seems like once the furnace turns on, it takes a lot of time to evacuate that air. So far, so good. Last year, I was feeling pretty good during July about a nice fall...and then September just went bonkers. As for snow, everybody wants to know how much we are going to get. The answer is that it is absolutely impossible to know. I think our best chances will be early. After that, one would think that January and February will provide some very long timeframes between chances. That said, it just "seems" the weather pattern from the past two years right is switching up. We are out of shoulder season which fooled me into thinking the pattern had broken early last winter(the pattern being a little pocket trough forming ad nauseam over the Mountain West in the front range). With some big heat already being felt in the Mountain West and a transient ridge reforming every few weeks there...makes me think we are seeing a transition. So, I am less negative about the upcoming winter. My gut says it will be better than I describe above, but my brain says to beware of moderate to strong Nina patterns - they are generally hostile to winter in the SE. So, I will go with BN snowfall, but maybe closer to normal than many will forecast, but better than last winter. Short and sweet with no graphics.
  10. No doubt. Descended here this afternoon. Has really reduced visibility. Pretty awesome.
  11. Been a great summer so far. Looks like roughly normal through July if any of the Weeklies can be believed - no death ridge yet. My fingers are crossed that the atmosphere will have a Nino hangover just long enough to get us through early and mid fall. Then, the Nina comes with early cold before warming to AN for part of winter. A person can hope, right!? Sitting at exactly normal for June with a 0.0 departure.
  12. So often we see weeks of winter disappear with warm spells. We call that "losing a weeks of winter or torches." Well, I feel like the last few weeks have been stealing some great weather from the warmest time of the year. Of course that won't last anymore than winters rarely stay warm. The Euro Weeklies are all of the way into August now. The Seasonals go to December. Every weeks that we steal from summer gets us one week closer to tracking those first fall cold fronts. I suspect we will still have some hot weeks and maybe even extended summer due to La Nina. What would be nice is to see the El Nino pattern have just enough pattern memory to get us through fall, and then let Nov/Dec turn cold which is often typical during La Nina years. Anyway, another great morning with temps. With temps pushing into the low 60s during the next few mornings(50s at 2500'...and 40s way up), can't complain. This has been a great patterns. There are some hints that the ridge builds east and holds...I don't know. Seems like that ridge really wants to be out West. It can stay there as much as it wants in my book.
  13. The Weeklies, FWIW, show a similar pattern continuing for the next six weeks. Ridge builds eastward only to get knocked down by fronts/lows coming across North America. For whatever reason, modeling really likes the ridge in the Mountain West. Let's just hope this is not a repeat of last summer where we got a break during July....and then the mega furnace kicked in for weeks on end. So far, this summer has been about as nice as one could ask for minus one really hot stretch.
  14. Looks like another cool-off(BN temps) is showing up on modeling after this weekend's warm-up. Then maybe the ridge holds for a bit to begin July. Still, by mid July looks like the ridge wants to shift back into the front range of the Rockies. For now, looks like temps will average out normal for June. Given that we are approaching La Nina conditions, any month near normal is a steal. Interestingly, the high yesterday at TRI was 66. I saw some folks walking around in jackets. Definitely drying-out quickly west of I-81 in the TRI region. We have managed to dodge rain in multiple ways during the past week IMBY.