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Carvers Gap

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About Carvers Gap

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
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    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN

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  1. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    ...nah, man. "Don't you put that evil on me," to quote the movie, Talladega Nights. I look forward to your post regarding the Weeklies. Definitely look forward to your discussion about 11-20 day differences and tonight's run. (changed you to your...I promise that I can speak English. And it is Talladega Nights not Ricky Bobby...Yikes!)
  2. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Well, that is great news! Thanks for letting me be nosy. It is about time that one of the hobby folks from this forum finally get a degree in the field that we enjoy. I have always felt that one thing the other great sub-forums of this site do...is they inspire people to go into some type of field within meteorology. Not saying we are the reason(you took that brave step), but we can still be proud anyway. I always enjoy reading posts from met students on the other sites. Congratulations!
  3. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    And Flash, I agree...great thread.
  4. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Are you studying to be a met? If so, awesome! I look forward to you putting some of that knowledge use here. I think the mid-Pac will be warmer than normal. Seems almost a given. It is the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific that is of interest. The BOMM LR model does not predict a Nino according to D'Aleo. It may indeed be an outlier. He and JB may actually be a tad bit at odds over the Pacific forecast. Interestingly, I can almost look IMBY and tell that the Nina is gone. It is perfectly green - not a brown blade of grass in sight. That said, D'Aleo made a pretty convincing argument that Ninos have a tendency to fail during low solar times. Past that, I am out on a limb w the saw in my hand! LOL. If forced, I would still go w a weak Nino(or at the least a weakly positive nada). To me it makes no difference of a few tenths separating the two. I think we get the same results - snow mid to late winter w/ a better than outside shot at some early winter.
  5. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Others please chime-in as well....I think the range of possibilities(outside goal posts) would be a very weak Nina to a weakly moderate Nino with something in between being the most likely outcome. I would give a weak Nina a 10-15% chance and a weakly moderate Nino maybe a 20% chance. So, I would place a 65% chance on a Nada(weakly positive on the Nino side) or a weak Nino. Speaking of the EC, there can be big differences in surface weather when comparing a Nada to a weak Nino. I do think things are coming into better focus, but ENSO forecasts can be pretty fickle at times. As we get into early fall, I think the ENSO state will be an easier call. Additionally, the weather right now "seems" to have a more Nino feel to it w cooler temps and more rain...That said, I would think we would also see a beefier monsoon season in the southwest if that was the case.
  6. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell... Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).
  7. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Weeklies temp update from TR evening...Weeks 1-4 look seasonal and then mid-late Sept looks slightly AN(increasing more and more until the run ends). Obviously nothing is set in stone. The Weeklies are entering shoulder season and can bounce around some.
  8. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    One other rule of thumb that I like to follow is that weather patterns during winter have a shelf life of four to six weeks. Very tough to get wall-to-wall BN cold like the Euro depicted due to the length of time involved. Have to think at least one of those months (DJF) will be AN.
  9. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    And I shouldn't be superstitious...but being in the bullseye in August just gives me a bad mojo feeling. LOL. The forum area on WxBell is depicted as -3F to -5F BN for DJF and 133-167% of snowfall(first flake to last flake). The line for heavier precip is cut from Memphis to the Plateau and to the southeast of that. The -5F bullseye is centered over Chattanooga - no lie. I know @nrgjeff is rolling his eyes somewhere! To me, anytime I see -5F(below normal relative to averages) I scratch my head just a bit. That takes a ton of cold to get that result. I generally view -2F to -3F as a pretty cold winter. Even -1F can make for a great winter provided we have moisture. Just seems that recently our winters(barring a few exceptions) have had a substantial thaw that erases much of the BN temps. Personally, I don't see -5F BN relative to norms...which makes me a bit skeptical and maybe makes me think I need to cut about 50% off those temp/precip numbers to account for hype. I will gladly eat a serving of crow if wrong. If anything, their forecast is a good read and food for thought. Past that, it is still August and things will for sure change...take w a grain of salt.
  10. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    @John1122, you may be on to something. I do agree that just because previous Decembers were warm...doesn't necessarily mean this one will. As they say, correlation is not causation. I am just riding Nino climo which favors mid-late weighted winters which likely runs counter to the previous sentence to this one- Ha! But again, each year is its own analog - still a ton on the table. JB actually mentioned that he thought winter would begin later...but their analog package does include 09-10, and he admits it could arrive early. The JAMSTEC, CANSIPS, Euro Monthly output do support a strong winter signal east of the MS, south of a line from the Ohio River extrapolated to the NE to say Boston. I was surprised at how cold the Euro(monthly) was. The CFS is not on board at this time. I like winters loaded in Jan/Feb mainly because we get so little snow in NE TN during early-mid December. I do agree that a weak Nino is a different animal than all other scenarios. For NE TN, a weak Nina or a weak Nino can mean interesting winter weather. A weak Nina usually means heightened chances of severe cold sometime during winter. Weak Ninos just seem to have more snow here w cold(just not severe cold) along w a lot of cold rain. And yeah, we will definitely keep an eye on your November signal as it has some decent skill in this area. I think the wild cards this winter are the NAO pattern and whether December can get winter rolling early. Here are there analogs from the WxBell initial winter forecast which will likely change some by Fall anyway.... 63-64 69-70 77-78 85-86 86-87 93-94 95-96 96-97 04-05 09-10
  11. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    I should add that if you can get your hands on the Euro monthly forecast(depicting each month), WxBell is very similar to those temps. Not sure if they are correct, I generally have a hard time believing that winter begins early w El Nino winters and like the second half of winter idea...but, hey! I'll have one of each of what they are having....
  12. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Crap! The WeatherBell forecast has us in the middle of a very big bullseye of a very big winter in the SE. Welp folks...I am changing my forecast to much AN for temps and calling for much BN for snowfall.
  13. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Greatly appreciate the detailed response and for stopping by the forum. We have been "chewing" on the QBO topic intermittently for about a year. Thanks for the insight in how/when to use it along w its weighting in conjunction w other factors.
  14. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Great find. Yeah, like I said earlier, the QBO had to be used in conjunction w other factors. I think the underlined section depicts that. As Judah Cohen infamously demonstrated, relying on one factor is probably infamous. Remember the Siberian snow cover debacle? Now, I like Judah and how he thinks out of the box...but he was humbled (as we all are) when we rely overly much on one thing. Even ENSO which I have grown to rely more heavily on....is not infallible. I prefer to think of the various winters as genetic compositions. In humans, there are traits that are more dominant when others are not present. It takes two recessive genes in order to make a trait such as blue eyes appear. And while I think there is a correlation between QBO(see my comments last winter...I am just honestly to lazy to repost them), maybe the QBO is evidence that another underlying factor is also present. After all, the QBO is really just a reversal in wind direction at the 30mb and 50mb layers of the atmosphere. So, it may be that the QBO needs to be found in conjunction w other factors. There is also a difference in the 50 and 30 mb QBO...I think most refer to the 30mb. I know last year that we were talking about the QBO and we were actually discussing two different indexes. Going to cherry-pick my favorite winters... https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx 84-85 The benchmark for all winters for me. The QBO was turning positive. It was an abnormally long negative timeframe w 19 straight months that were negative. It would flip positive in February. The devil is in the details for this winter. The last week of Dec 84 featured temps in the upper 60s for NE TN. December was nearly eight degrees above normal for the month in Bristol. Jan 1 of 85 was 71. The cold snap for January was centered in all of January. Had the week in December occurred one week later, those average temps would have been skewed warmer. That actually happened this winter w a cold month being split between two months - washed out the averages and made them look like average months. Eventually, the winter of 84-85 would break during the third week of Feb, and it never came back. February began cold but we managed to hit 70 again that month as well...March went quite warm. So, the temperature flip did occur that winter. 95-96 I remember this winter due to snow and cold. Knoxville missed many days of school. The QBO had just flipped negative that fall. 09-10 I remember this winter because this is when it seemed that winters became consistently colder here- after many winters without snow. The QBO had just flipped negative that summer. 14-15(addendum) The QBO flipped negative during May of that year. While not a great winter for most of the forum area, it proved to be incredible snowy in Kingsport. I had to go back on my phone and find the pics which had the dates. That winter(I think) was the one where Kingsport City ran out of snow days and then some. 17-18. I will remember this winter for the cold and incredibly dry weather during that timeframe. The QBO had just flipped negative that fall. Yes, there was warm...but there was incredible cold as well. Jax, you said that there was an early SSW that winter. Indeed it occurred in early January. Maybe not so coincidentally, it was preceded by incredible warmth here. As noted earlier this year, I do wonder if episodes of extreme warmth sometimes precede these SSW events - especially in eastern NA. There were strat splits during the winters of 84-85, 09-10, and 17-18. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html Addendum: I missing one really snowy winter during the 2010s...I will go back and find it, and then add it. I think it was the winter where we kept getting snow in NE TN, but everyone else struck out. So, it might no be memorable for everyone....(edit) found it...14-15
  15. Carvers Gap

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    I think it was a great point that you made. Glad that you brought it up. I hadn't realized it was that low...just got me to thinking out loud which is alway dangerous. You and John brought some great stuff to the board! @Save the itchy algae!As for the QBO having merit...it does IMO. We used it last winter pretty effectively to predict the cold shot and one could argue the strat split as well. It has an arguable correlation to high latitude block. Just not sure it has as much influence this winter unless it pops positive. Negative QBOs at 30mb correlate to some snowy winters in NE TN. Like the screen name BTW. Post more!
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