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EastTNWeatherAdmirer

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About EastTNWeatherAdmirer

  • Birthday August 17

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    0000
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Morristown, Tennessee
  • Interests
    Weather, Fishing, Soccer, and Being Outdoors

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  1. To Carvers Gap: Thank you very much for your well-informed thoughts and analysis. Your explanation helped to illustrate the circumstances that support necessary confluence and the importance of the NAO. I am 17 years old and enjoy studying the weather but don't have close to the experience and knowledge you all have. Thank you very much for your insight!
  2. I have a question…perhaps some of you smart weather needs and geeks on here could provide some insight. During the winter, are there any key atmospheric features(things like teleconnections, MJO, storm timing, ULL’s, SLL’s, trough tilt) that have a strong effect and influence on whether southern stream storm systems “phase” with the northern cold upper jet to create significant snow storms? In other words, are there any deeper answers to why the pattern doesn’t work out for some(even those in the south) because of suppression other than blaming a “strong -AO”?
  3. Latest NAM looking a little better at hour 51. Northern and southern stream vort/energy not as disconnected. Perhaps the ULL will try to scoop up more energy than the models are saying now. If that doesn't happen only coastal nc would see snow.
  4. It seems like the overall trend is headed to the hrrr outcome with less precip over Nw and middle Tn, western ky and looks very similar to the Rgem at the end frames of the 18z hrrr
  5. The Hi-Res CMC, or RGEM, is a fairly respectable and somewhat reliable model its outcome is halfway decent for the valley, particularly along and north of I-40, I 81 and up through TYS... RGEM Kutchera Output:
  6. Like some were thinking the NAM may not check out with the thermodynamic profile for the NE TN valley but here is the ice map for those interested... What seems more likely and will probably make the ''weather disaster news headlines'' is .5''-1'' of solid ice over GA and SC urban centers like Atlanta if the cold air is robust enough.
  7. Here is just about snowfall from the entire storm. We get so caught up in these winter storms and it's easy to get fooled with how terrible the models have been doing but imagine it's winter in Jan 2017, 2018, 2019, or 2020 and someone showed us the Euro's exact 12z weather map. I think we'd go nuts over it. Models have gotten worse and maybe when the threat of winter storms move in we are so caught up in the models we forget how we long for snow around thanksgiving every year lol.
  8. Synoptically the Euro honestly looks somewhat like the GEFS midday run
  9. In everyone's experience with modelling on here, has anyone noticed if the GFS or Euro handle Upper Level Lows better? If the GFS is incorrect with the northwest trend, it will probably be due to poor handling with the ULL while better handling of the ULL may allow the Euro to come to fruition. Most of middle and East TN don't see much snow on the 12z GFS because it has the ULL slowing down and getting momentarily stuck over western KY allowing WAA over N AL and MIDDLE TN. If the GFS is known to handle ULL's well, then this may be a plausible outcome however it may also be possible that the GFS isn't phasing the ULL enough to reality like the Euro is suggesting. The fate of the storm may lie in the nature of the ULL. Here are the key differences between the 12z gfs and 00z euro...
  10. I think I'm just gonna put all these silly models aside and go with the CFS. It is really good in the short-range. *sarcasm*
  11. One thing that might be helpful in tracking this next system when questioning how far the precipitation shield sets up northwest and where the surface low goes is: remembering what models nailed the last system on January 6th. When tracking the January 5th/6th storm I remember the SREF model blend caught the trend over KY and WV the earliest and consequently some of the NAM runs followed. With this upcoming event, I like what I am seeing on the SREF if u want snow in East Tn. While it doesn't go out far enough to know for sure, on the SREF the snow rapidly diminished over far western Tennessee and Arkansas at the ends of its period. This implies that a transfer of energy and a secondary low would be developing near the gulf coast. I expect the NAM to come on board with the Euro at some point over the next 24 hours.
  12. It was really the HRRR, Nam 3km, SREF(blend), and a couple of RAP runs that really nailed this one with the SREF really catching the extent of the snow to the Northwest. Credit goes to the Nam and HRRR for catching the warm nose and the undermining of dry air(nam3km) beginning over the southern plateau. HRRR 11z Thursday Kutchera snowfall was the ultimate and overall winner. Merit hasn’t been lost in the other models for short range, however. This was a really unique event with an especially difficult setup for the valley. Perhaps sometimes in the past you have seen the exact opposite happen: with the HRRR and Nam3km showing a drier and warmer profile than reality with precip and cold winning the battle. Perhaps the Nam 3km isn’t the most intelligent model overall, just in this case. It was just it’s nature to catch a warm frontal sector of air and that’s what happened. I think terrain over the plateau, SE Ky Mtns, and SW VA Virginia Mtns and the smoky mountains may have had something to do with this outcome. This also may have something to do with the idea of the storm's fast movement trumping the forcing, as MRX pointed out. If the entire southeast US was flat, I think most East TN wouldn’t have seen the 4-7 KY saw but instead may have seen a widespread 2”-3.5.” The smoky mountains funneled warm and dry air advection north which in turn allowed a broader surface low to propagate slightly further north and east than expected. The plateau and Cumberland Gap Mtns enhanced the temp and dry air gradient with, generally, those to the north of the SW VA, SE KY line seeing a fully saturated column with suitably cold temperatures which also enhanced rates and total accumulations.
  13. It appears a big time BUST could be in store for the East TN central valley and tri cities unlike the GFS, RGEM, CMC, Euro, some NAM runs, WRF's, showed only a short time ago. Latest NAM km, HRRR probably pretty on track with 1''-2.5'' for Maryville, East Knox, Jefferson City, Blaine, Morristown up through Greeneville and Johnson City. Warm nose really overperforming with rain to start at first for most in the central and NE valley. Wrap around moisture could provide a light dusting of an inch overnight. This is one of the most difficult systems I've ever seen. Really sad day for those in East tn who wanted snow
  14. Flakes are about Nickel size now but absolute gangbusters with the rates and intensity. Reduced visibility, Roads are now completely snow covered at least on the south side of Hamblen County. Up to around 2” and going up fast
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