Wurbus

GFS is playing an April Fools joke

12z models still look on track for 3-6 inches of rain over the next few days. I just had a bunch of water drainage issues fixed around my house a few weeks ago, so this should be a good test for all that work.

Weird thing I noticed on the GFS was the snow depth. It shows 8 inches of snow falling in KNX, but a snow depth of less than an inch. I would think IF that much actually fell, we would have at least a couple inches on grassy surfaces. Maybe it is actually showing road snow depth!

The elusive "It's a week away" storm. Para has it as well, but it is more north and hammers mid-northern KY. CMC is a completely different solution and has the storm in the Midwest.

Finally seeing some precipitation near Karns area. Looks like it is mostly sleet with some snow mixed in at the moment.

Getting some very fine light flurries here in Knoxville at the moment.

Mostly rain for the 1st system in East TN after the initial onset of FRZ. Middle/West TN still gets in on all the "fun". 2nd system shifted east some, but still all rain for most of middle TN and all of East TN. West TN still has snow/sloppy mess with some backside snow for west/mid TN.

FRZ/Sleet across the whole state by 96 except for extreme east TN. Looks like FRZ for Knoxville as well sitting at 32 degrees. We will see if the big chunk of precip comes in as rain or not here in a few.

GFS about 4 degrees warmer across the board through 84 compared to 06z.

There is a 2nd storm nailing Memphis with snow late next weekend as well. Memphis is going to look like the North Pole if those verify.

That is a warm nose from hell. I'm not sure I've ever seen one go all the way up into Ohio

CMC just killed the power across all of TN again.There is still freezing rain coming down in west/middle TN at 240!

NAM still showing pretty good snow. Looks like an initial thump, and then some backside snow.

If the upcoming potential ice storm does happen, it reminds me a lot of the storm we had back in Feb 2015, at least IMBY. We had ice and snow, followed by very cold weather and it hung around for awhile. Now the one being modeled on the CMC is much worse. Also, I had an ice, wolverine claw form over several days next to my house back then.

Lots of pick and purple on the GEFS members as well toward the end of next week, so definitely a lot of support for a lot of ice for someone in the forum area.