Daniel Boone
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We pretty well knew this would happen, unfortunately. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
Daniel Boone replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, kmrx was wrong on the heaviest axis 2day as it has setup through seky/swva. .93 here as of 2:30 pm...some areas along the border already at 1.5+ inches 2day alone. -
Agree with causal and effect. However, in the end the MJO Rooster ruled the Roost. IF that Rooster would decide to roost in a more favorable area we should still get things lined out for a decent snowstorm... or 2. Late Feb. and March may be the saves.
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Dayton microscale lee side low/ revenge of the strat storm
Daniel Boone replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nothing here as that band moved up the Valley and went to my east. -
Zilch here as of 9:20 am. Heavy band that moved up the great Valley missed to my south and east. Bummer !
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm seeing into now. As it stands, the Lee County Airport Station west of Jonesville is down and has been since last summer. So, Temps are being projected by models from topograhical smoothed elevation plots and closest Stations. The plots are basically smoothed more on some than others, as is evident. Also, Downsloping is a little overdone as spillover upslope snow survives into the western Valley sections and then disappear further east. Also, there is a somewhat upslope flow from the ssw that is never modeled of which affects precip totals as well. Snowfall reports come from my data and probably the Pennington gap water plant, of which is a terribly location as it is 1 mile south of town right on the banks of Powell river at a much lower elevation than most of the county. Also, that station has a proven history of the workers there reporting erroneous data. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don't know what has been done to some models lately or what data is being ingested but, they have been forecasting temps too warm for Lee County and underforecasting precip. Snowfall projections are wrong as well, generally too low. Even the once decent (Euro model) for the area is doing it now, as well. -
Wound up with a quarter to half in the Jonesville, Va area.
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Good analysis and prognostication PSUhoff. We were and have been so close to having a great Winter. Now, so close to having a great ending. Will the powers that thwarted what was on track for a great Winter thwart the ending as well.?..My guess is yes to some degree. One other factor that may play a role in fighting against us is the rising + QBO. . Although, probably not much weight from it as correlation rather weak.
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Mid section has had a great Winter and looks to continue, even if we do get in on it. -
Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to nj2va's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sorry for late re. Yeah, for the most part unexpected , although, a couple of models showed some. -
On a side note, several accidents were reported in Lee County.
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Thanks man. Sloppy now as melting taking place and lt. Rain has begun.
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Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to nj2va's topic in Mid Atlantic
Picked up 2.5 " heavy, wet snow here in central Lee County, Va.