Daniel Boone

Seems to be so in the modern climate. Not so much in the "old days" . Oct. 13, 77 measurable snow in SWVA. Oct 10, 79 major snow Shenandoah valley and measurable much of MA(Orioles game). Those following Winter's turned out below avg T's and average to above Snowfall. There's several instances further back that show similar outcomes. The Latest good following was '95-96. trace amounts Oct 25 in portions of the MA and Tn Valley.

Without help from the NAO we probably are cooked. May be ample severe wx and flooding threats this Winter.

I'm inclined to go overall milder than average due to the obvious; strong mainly east based Nino. I, like Jeff and also the usual outcome of Nino Winters, expect late Winter to offer more Winter Wx opportunities. However, there may be some surprises in December if what some Other's in the Field are making note of. Bastardi mentions that in a Tweet tonight on his X page ,The American Storm.: "Starting to see other folks picking up on the endgame idea. This tweet was from Sept 10. Also, an important link to some cold in the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period in the East. Given the December blowtorch modeling, that would be something. Remember it has to do with the MJO being favorable for the tropics in Oct, then rolling back around 40-60 days later. Point is AI's and human forecasters picking up on it". The record warm December of the strong '82-83 Nino actually had a major Snow storm the 11th and 12th. A light snowfall the 21st. So, even the warmest Dec on Record produced normal to above average snowfall. The strong Nino of '97-98 had a measurable Snowfall the end of December. 5 inches recorded in Pennington gap. Much more in the higher elevations.

Picked up over 2 inches of Rain (2.25) here from 6 to 8 this Evening. Prior to this, I had recorded only .98 for the Month. Western Lee County has done well with 5-6 inches for the Month.

It's the big Heat Dome that plagued the Southern Plains all Summer. Question is, will it finally dissolve, shift Eastward out into the Atlantic, become a Bermuda High, weaken then rebound etc.. The back Westward shift.is unlikely as the STJ should barrel into the SW. Come Winter, if there's any semblance of this Feature,whether stll alive(low odds) or ressurrected, it could have quite an effect, especially if it becomes formidable then. IF it were to it would probably setup in the SW Atlantic due to the STJ forcing. Where out there would determine our Pattern Outcome; out by the Sargasso Sea would be great if you want Snow. Further West mild and probably wet.

That looks pretty canonical Nino. Big banner Snow Season for the central and Southern Rockies. Possibly the Resorts of the Central and Southern Apps as well. Going to depend on how much cold can get involved in the latter Area's obviously.

I'm with you on that -PDO strong Nino Combo logically flooding the Country with mild PAC Air. Stranger things have happened I suppose. Could be a banner Winter in the Ski Resort Area's of the Rockies. Alot of heavy , wet Snow. Strong Blocking could throw the mid possibly southern Apps a shot at a heavy duty wet Snow Storm or two come mid January onward imo.

Those folks in the Southern Plains have been punished by that heat ridge pretty much all Summer. Pity them. Amazing at the long standing consistency.

Even though it caused some issues, it was a godsend overall.

Wound up with 3.93" here. North Jonesville officially 4.06" . Pennington gap, 4.57". Radar estimates of 5-7 inches northern Lee into Western Wise County. Powell River flooded Big Stone on down to Jonesville. Creeks and Streams flooded.

Over 3 inches has fallen here since 3 PM.

Really shafted in Lee and Wise Counties over the last 10 Days. 2.75" Total here. 3.69" Monthly Total. Over three quarters of an inch below average.

Wound up with 0.09" here this Morning. Some thunder and Lightning as well.

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

Hot/dry