michsnowfreak

Just had a good hailer to welcome April

It's MSP somewhat milder version of DTWs 2013-14. We were in 2nd place since early March. But just shy of #1...an April 15th snowfall did it.

March finished 14th wettest (4.11") and 6th snowiest (15.8") at Detroit.

The state line has been a big cutoff line this winter between Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio.

The march high temp warmed a lot more than the min temp at Detroit. A more fair comparison would be the first 30 years of climate data and the most recent 30 years. Not a small 13 year sample of avg high temps that includes the record march heat of 2012. The avg March temp for Detroit's first 30 years of data (1874-1903) and the most recent 30 years (1993-2022) show a difference of 4.5° (33.0 to 37.5). March is by far the month that has warmed the most since records began, and spring by far the season that has warmed the most. Locally, it is not even a contest. Spring/Summer have warmed much more than Winter/Autumn. In fact, over the past 100 years, there has been NO warming in January or October at Detroit, but March continues to see the most. I think if you transported someone from 1880 to 2023 the technology may overshadow the part that march is a few degrees warmer

The temp at DTW dropped from 45 to 36 as the rain/snow moved in. We had some good gusts of snow. It reminded me of those tv shows when you can tell the fans are blowing in the snowflakes lol. But nothing stuck. So with a trace, that will wrap up the March snowfall. At 15.8", Detroit ties w/ 1912 for the 6th snowiest March on record. This comes after just tying for the 6th least snowy Feb. Season snowfall sits at 37.0". The only Marches with more snow were 1900, 1899, 1881, 2008, and 1916.

I called it cherry picking because Im not a fan of comparing apples to oranges. if you are going to do one 30-year period do another 30-year period. The avg March temp for Detroit's first 30 years of data (1874-1903) and the most recent 30 years (1993-2022) show a difference of 4.5° (33.0 to 37.5). A more compatible comparison than the high temp (which has warmed more than the low temp) of the first 27 years to the high temp to the small sample size of 13 years including record march 2012 heat. I have so many documents on stats you wouldnt believe it. As said, I know Detroits climate like the back of my hand. Like I said I have no issue with stats. March is by far the month that has warmed the most since records began, and spring by far the season that has warmed the most. Locally, it is not even a contest. Spring/Summer have warmed much more than Winter/Autumn. In fact, over the past 100 years, there has been NO warming in January or October. But March continues to be the most. It even shows in the snow record, as the 2000s-2010s were easily the snowiest 20-year stretch on record for Detroit, but March had the least amt of top 20 snowiest years since 2000. Jan- 3 of top 20 since 2000 Feb- 10 of top 20 since 2000 Mar- 2 of top 20 since 2000, and 1 is this year Apr- 5 of top 20 since 2000 Nov- 3 of top 20 since 2000 Dec- 6 of top 20 since 2000

Why are we comparing 1872-1900 (a 29 year set that ends with the coldest march on record) to 2010-2022 (an only 13 year data-set which includes the record warmest Mar 2012). March is definitely warmer now than the 1870s. But thats absolute cherry picking. BTW temps in the 1870s-1910s were usually taken on top of skyscraper buildings. Not sure how much that affects things. Heres avg midwest snowfall from 1930-31 thru 1959-60 vs 2007-08 thru 2013-14 --- 1930-60 - 2007-14 DTW - 32.7" - 59.8" TOL - 28.4" - 46.7" CLE - 47.1" - 65.9" ORD - 34.1" - 50.9" MKE - 42.5" - 59.0" MSN - 37.3" - 65.6" MSP - 39.8" - 53.9" GRB - 41.0" - 70.8" IND - 17.5" - 31.1"

This is entirely incorrect. For starters, you mention 1973, 1991, and 1998. But the summers preceding those Ninos would be 1972, 1991, 1997. Secondly, the heatwaves of the 1930s-1950s have yet to be matched in this region. More recently summers are becoming more humid with warmer min temps thus hotter overall mean temps. And of course plenty of hot days too. As recently as the 2000s saw less heat than the 1990s, 1950s, 1940s, 1930s. Strictly in terms of heat, the average # of 90F+ days per decade: -------DTW - CLE - CHI 1870s – 4 - 4 - 8 1880s – 5 - 4 - 5 1890s – 9 - 6 - 11 1900s – 6 - 2 - 9 1910s – 11 - 5 - 14 1920s – 9 - 5 - 13 1930s – 17 - 9 - 19 1940s – 16 - 18 - 23 1950s – 15 - 20 - 28 1960s – 11 - 8 - 19 1970s – 12 - 7 - 21 1980s – 13 - 10 - 22 1990s – 12 - 10 - 16 2000s – 10 - 9 - 13 2010s – 16 - 17 - 19 FWIW El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO: 1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014 El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds six more years to the list: 1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2009, 2018.

My question was partially in jest. It was a retort to your response to my commenting how many late green ups we have had lately by talking about the early 1800s. But you still didnt explain why every graph you will ever see showing how much a winter has warmed will start since 1970. So I will. Its because starting a regression line in the coldest-on-record 1970s will automatically give you a MUCH more unrealistic warming curve than the longterm average. I have no issue with stats, in fact I welcome them. I am pretty much the climate stat king for Detroit, so if cherry picking is your style be prepared that it can and will go two ways. From a winter perspective (snowfall/snow depth) there is so much I could cherry pick that obliterated snow records, but usually at minimum a 30-year sampling is important imo, not a 12-year one (2010-22). just my opinion. I am VERY aware of what has and what has not changed in our climate. The 21st century is so far warmer, wetter, and snowier than it was in the 19th & 20th centuries. But comparing 1872-1900 to 2010-22 is as cherry picking as they come. Its not even close to the same number of years. March is one of the most warmed months since the 1870s, definitely true. So I suppose that's why we are looking at only the last 12 years compared to the earliest years of data (and just ignoring the 110 years in between lol). Now January, on the other hand, has warmed very little since the late 1800s, so that's why we usually draw those comparisons to the 1970. Are you in Ohio btw? The 2012 spring greenup was a record year, much like 1945, and extremely unusual. No way does the average first leaf on soft maple come in mid-April in SE MI. Buds yes but leaves in mid-April are early. Every Fall and Spring are different, though subtle averages can be estimated. Temp averages by season/decade at Detroit. AVG F WINTER – SPRING – SUMMER - FALL 1870s – 25.2 – 44.5 – 69.5 – 50.5 *incomplete decade* 1880s – 27.6 – 45.8 – 69.6 – 51.8 1890s – 26.5 – 45.8 – 70.4 – 51.3 1900s – 24.9 – 45.9 – 69.8 – 52.2 1910s – 25.5 – 46.2 – 70.3 – 52.0 1920s – 25.8 – 46.7 – 70.1 – 52.7 1930s – 28.3 – 46.5 – 72.3 – 52.7 1940s – 27.0 – 47.0 – 71.4 – 53.1 1950s – 28.6 – 47.0 – 71.6 – 52.7 1960s – 26.2 – 47.0 – 70.5 – 53.1 1970s – 24.8 – 47.2 – 70.2 – 51.6 1980s – 25.9 – 47.5 – 70.7 – 51.2 1990s – 29.2 – 48.3 – 71.6 – 52.4 2000s – 27.7 – 48.8 – 71.7 – 53.5 2010s – 28.2 – 49.6 – 73.2 – 53.8

Definitely a good snow line this winter for MI/OH

Compacting with these late season snows is an absolute given, as is having less on the roads than the grass. But the 12.1 does seem a bit high. Depth at 7pm yesterday was already 6"

Yes. The last thing we need is more power outages lol. And you were right, it was 67 mph.

It was very gusty. Wow on 66 mph though (per climate report). Had some light snow flying in the wind these evening. Obviously just a T.