Chicago Storm

Remember how badly it did with last weekends storm...Most runs didn’t have above 9” anywhere. We know how that worked out... .

12z GGEM north as well. H5 isn’t too far off the RGEM, just doesn’t have as good of an outcome. Still gets 1000mb SLP into SE. Missouri. .

Southern trough is more organized, and goes neutral tilt faster. Some of those lead pieces of energy allow it to phase with northern stream faster. Thus, this run is stronger and further north. .

12z GFS likely coming north. .

12z RGEM is holding as well, similar to the 0z and 6z runs. 500mb tries to close off over C. Missouri by 48hr, with 999mb SLP in S. Illinois. .

They won’t handle it as well as the hi-res. .

It actually still does try to close off at 500mb by 54-57hr. SLP ends up between 6z and 0z runs. Main difference is just in precip field, with it not trying to close off until a bit later than the past two runs. You can see heavier snows break out across S. IL as that occurs. .

To add to this... The difference hinge on the initial energy that ejects our and how it’s handled. Previous runs were a bit stronger and more organized, with helped close off 500mb and pull the main wave NE in the trough. This new run is a bit weaker and disorganized with those lead pieces of energy, so it doesn’t close off at 500mb and the main wave stays a bit further south in the through. However, there is more phasing this run that makes up for that loss. .

There have been a few, just nothing really significant. I remember you as well. That was the glory days, until winter 2013/2014 came around. .

12z NAM coming in a bit less amped that the 6z, and not too far off from the 0z run. Biggest difference is how initial pieces of energy ejects out are handled and developed within the trough. .

It’s not surprising, given the NAM solution the past few runs. .

I would say that... Most recent pure LES occurrence was 3/13-14/17 for those areas, which did provide accumulation. Actually had a couple inches of LES from that here as well. .

6z ECMWF might have been slightly worse than the already terrible 0z run. .

That is just synoptic/FGEN/lake enhancement. Any pure LES from Sat/Sun is not included...and that likely will be several inches. .

The 6z RGEM is north again too. 1001mb SLP around Joplin at 48hr, with 500mb closed off around Topeka. .