Chicago Storm

Wouldn’t call it an over-performer really, when some guidance had it nailed for days. More like another SPC bust to add to a quickly growing list. To think, yesterday afternoons SWODY2 totally removed even general t’storm into the RFD area. .

Not the RAP, the RAP was also horrible. ECMWF and RGEM win on this one.

Several 2.00-3.00" hail reports W to S of RFD area.

Several 2-2.50" hail reports in and around CID.

Chicago metro likely to rolled the next few hours. That main sup near RFD continues to roll, with the storm behind it taking on sup characteristics now as well. Then there's also new rapid development in McHenry/Lake Co's.

The supercell off NW of Rockford is fairly sig. Large TBSS with it, and maxed out at 77dbz.

Hit 80 at ORD and MDW today.

Several 2-2.50" hail reports from that sup that moved north of MKE a bit ago.

Significant initiation attempts occurring in the mentioned area now, just NW of DBQ.

Think we eventually see initiation somewhere in the NE IA/SW WI/NW IL area. The front is more NE-SW oriented currently, instead of N-S....and will becoming more ENE-WSW oriented with time. That will likely lead to a positive in eroding the cap, with some "CAA" occurring aloft moving into the aforementioned area, which looks to overlap the front due to its previously mentioned orientation. Add in the main disturbance and jet streak will be nosing into that area shortly as well. Seems to be a nice spot to watch for starters. Already seeing a nice/healthy/agitated CU field across this area as well. Probably will have some initiation in other areas as well, but that is one area that sticks out for now.

Make that more 77-83 area wide now. .

No doubt... Wednesday too. Even today there were a significant amount of people out and about.

11,256 cases and 274 deaths as of yesterday. Slightly bigger increase to 12,262 cases and 307 deaths in IL today.

Yea, something is wrong with the placefile I'm using. Marginal is still there,a s you pointed out.

Can’t figure out at all what the SPC is doing. Not only the very questionable SWODY2, but not the new SWODY1 completely removes marginal for anywhere...when it’s pretty clear there will be a hail risk that warrants a marginal corridor. .