Jump to content

ILSNOW

Members
  • Content count

    426
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About ILSNOW

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KORD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Buffalo Grove, Illinois
  1. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    All trees covered with ice here as well some are probably not going to make it. Roads are fine.
  2. March 5-7 pos Storm

    RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 307 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 ...Period of Heavy Wet Snow Possible Monday Evening... ILZ005-006-012>014-050515- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0014.180305T2200Z-180306T0600Z/ McHenry-Lake IL-Kane-DuPage-Cook- Including the cities of Woodstock, Waukegan, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, and Chicago 307 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. The snow may fall heavy at times Monday evening with snowfall rates up to an inch per hour possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible. * WHERE...McHenry, Lake IL, Kane, DuPage and Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to midnight CST Monday night.
  3. March 5-7 pos Storm

    Lock the 0z GEM in. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030400&fh=60 LAUGHABLE!!!!
  4. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    4Z RAP gets wetter. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021104&fh=13&r=conus&dpdt=
  5. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    3z RAP http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021103&fh=15&r=conus&dpdt=
  6. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 237 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-110445- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0012.180211T0600Z-180211T1800Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-Lake IN-Porter- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Waukegan, Oregon, Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Kankakee, Pontiac, Gary, and Valparaiso 237 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and central, north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
  7. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    19z RAP introduces a narrow strip of 5 inches http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021019&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=
  8. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Chicago AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs The main concern is the next round of accumulating snow arriving late this evening and ending by around mid day Sunday. Did not make huge changes to previous TAF, but did add some additional detail. Forecast soundings indicate that saturation should be fairly rapid this evening as forcing increases, so have moved start time up an hour, and have concern it could be needed to be moved up slightly more. During the prime period for snow overnight into early Sunday, soundings indicate a favorable overlap of strong lift in the snow growth zone, which typically is supportive of at least moderate snowfall rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour, sharply reduced visibility of 1/2SM or less at times and IFR CIGS/VV. Potential exists for snow to take on a banded nature, which adds some uncertainty as to whether banding will be narrow enough to focus worst impacts onto some terminals and not others. Have added a TEMPO 3/4SM VSBY group for now between 8-9z to 12z Sunday. It appears fairly likely that at least some of the terminals will experience temporary visibility of 1/2SM or lower, but wanted to give some time to assess trends. Trends through Sunday morning are a bit uncertain as well, with guidance mixed on how long low conditions with visibility under 2 miles will persist. An upper level disturbance digging in could indeed prolong low conditions, but possibility is also there for a quicker improvement. Left trends unchanged through Sunday morning for now given lower confidence. Total snowfall accumulations should be in the 2-5" range". The snow should be a fairly dry/fluffier snow. Winds will be northerly 10 kt or less through tonight, shifting to northwest to west-northwest 10 kt or less on Sunday. Castro
  9. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    12z NAM is bringing 5-6 inches into chicagoland with wave #3 General model consensus of 3-5 with NAM being wetter as usual. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021012&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt= http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021012&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt= http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021012&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt= http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021012&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  10. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    chicago NWS has some concerns about tonight this pattern shows little mercy to forecasters with subtle, low amplitude waves in close proximity to each other and to boot these low amplitude waves can challenge models at times. The next such wave is spreading east across IA and taking aim on our CWA later tonight into Sat morning. Regional radar imagery shows a large swath of snow, some of it quite formidable at this time. Shortwave trough responsible for this snow is backing the low/mid level flow and resulting in a strengthening f-gen band again. Like last night, guidance suggest this wave will shear out and weaken overnight into Saturday morning, however, it isn`t uncommon for models to weaken f-gen circulations too quickly and am concerned that the area of snow may be slower to dissipate than what guidance suggests. Planning to nudge QPF and pops up a bit overnight into Saturday morning, still planning to keep forecast snowfall in the 1-3" range, though if this wave and resultant f-gen is slower to weaken than progged wouldn`t be hard to envision seeing some heavier totals where banding features train.
  11. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Areas affected...Portions of IA...southern WI...and northern IL Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090307Z - 090900Z SUMMARY...A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow will likely produce snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough present over NE/KS will move eastward across the Upper Midwest overnight. Large-scale lift ahead of this trough has promoted a broad area of light to moderate snow extending from eastern SD to southern WI/northern IL. A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across southern IA is focusing a low-level baroclinic zone across central IA as of 03Z. Related frontogenetic forcing should remain centered around 850 mb, and a narrow west-to-east oriented band of moderate to heavy snow has recently developed across central IA on the nose of the low-level jet. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour in this band will likely occur through the remainder of the evening and continue through the overnight hours. As the shortwave trough develops eastward, the moderate to heavy snow band will shift eastward into southern WI and northern IL (including the Chicago metro), mainly after 05Z. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018
  12. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Difference in the NAM vs GFS with the storm on our door step is unbelievable
  13. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Wave 2 has more of an SW to NE look to it now vs. the east /west look it had earlier.
  14. We were under a winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches. We received a dusting!!!!! Cant wait for tomorrows advisory for 2-4 inches that turns into 1 inch. This winter blows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  15. January 14-15th Clipper System

    milwaukee agrees with you UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1203 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 .UPDATE... Continuing to evaluate the need to raise snowfall accumulations in the northern and eastern areas near Lake Michigan. This would be due to the lake enhanced snow band pivoting southward through these areas Monday into Monday evening, and for lake effect snow expected later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need to raise amounts a few inches in these areas. Also contemplating the need for a Winter Storm Warning for Sheboygan south to Milwaukee County, given the possible higher amounts and impact on the Monday/Tuesday morning commutes. The lake enhanced band will continue to be the variable that will be most tricky to pin down, thus the most uncertainty.
×