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ILSNOW

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About ILSNOW

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KORD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Buffalo Grove, Illinois

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  1. Chicago NWS .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Concerns continue to focus on the best timing of possible significant severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this afternoon into early this evening. A couple of MCV`s, with ongoing convection are present to our west-northwest. The first is located over northeastern IA, with another one farther northwest into MN. Concerns are that the extensive convection over southern MN into northeastern IA in association with these features will mature into one or two east- southeastward forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon into early evening as surface warm front (and the strongly unstable airmass to its south) shifts northward into parts of northern IL and northwestern IN. The airmass within and near the warm sector is already extremely unstable thanks to hot and humid surface conditions (temperatures into the 80s amidst dew points well into the 70s). In fact, MUCAPE was already calculated at nearly 6,000 J/KG on the 12z KILX RAOB, with mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8.5C per km in the EML. The instability gradient is expected to set up right over northern IL and southern WI into Lower Michigan this afternoon, and will essentially offer the pathway for any forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon. However, exactly where any MCS will propagate remains uncertain and will be tied to *when* the system develops. An earlier development over far western Wisconsin would place our area in the crosshairs, while a later development over eastern Wisconsin would favor a path entirely outside our area and in Lower Michigan. At any rate, the MCS will have the potential to produce significant severe winds in excess of 75 mph given the very impressive thermodyamics. Moreover, deep layer shear is expected to be enhanced this afternoon as a 50+ kt enhanced mid- level jet along the southern periphery of the MCVs shifts overhead. Accordingly the threat for damaging hail and tornadoes would exist, as well. And, not to be forgotten, torrential downpours will also accompany these storms given PWATs at or just above 2". It appears the main window of severe threat for the area will be after 2 or 3 pm this afternoon through 7 or 8 pm this evening. KJB
  2. pretty clear that the 18z NAM is the only model that has a handle on this (joking)
  3. point n click for Buffalo Grove Thursday Night Snow. Low around 22. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
  4. 12z Euro snowstorm (what a surprise another POS)
  5. Tuesday a rainer and this one a 2-4 incher that will end up being a duster up here
  6. Top 5 snow event While the cold front will become increasingly removed the eastward moving mid-level trough and moisture, these showers are expected to survive into at least northern Illinois early to mid-evening. Several snow squall ingredients will be in place, chiefly a linear forcing mechanism with sufficient low- level instability nearing 50 J/kg in the well-mixed layer in the lowest 6kft. Brief sharp reductions in visibility (possibly near white-out) and quick accumulations of a half inch to very locally 1 inch in 30 minutes or less are possible across northern Illinois. Timing favors 6-8pm for the Rockford area and 8-10pm for most of the Chicago metro.
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