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    Buffalo Grove, Illinois
  1. right on que the heavy lake county band started here came in as a wall of heavy snow!!!
  2. Starting to snow here in Buffalo Grove. Any Chicago posters have any thoughts on the lake effect. Seems like the HRRR brings a band into lake county the moves it pretty quickly into cook.
  3. Chicago NWS from early morning on possible lake effect. 12z NAM says no. The surface low will move northeast across the Ohio valley tonight into Tuesday before it eventually gets absorbed a deep nor`easter low off the Atlantic coast. As this process occurs, cold upper level low pressure will build southward through the upper Great Lakes and strong arctic surface high pressure will move into the Upper midwest. Several important pieces of the puzzle are coming together to support our first organized lake effect snow event of the season. This process will allow some very cold air to return to the region, and will create steep low level lapse rates due to the relatively "warm" lake. 850 Temp to lake surface temperature differences are about 15 to 18 C, which is pretty decent. These steep lapse rates appear to extend over a deep moist low level layer. Lake induced CAPE values reach in excess of 500 J/KG and equilibrium levels up to 10000 ft or so are also strongly indicative of the potential for effective snow producers. With the strong high to our northwest and a nor`easter low, this is a favorable synoptic setup for our area for the development of lake effect snow into Illinois and for the possibility of a convergent band. The complicating factor is that these situations are highly contigent on the development of a stronger single band for the higher impacts, and this is highly contigent not only on the development of a low level convergent axis, but how long that axis lingers in one area. The GFS/GEM depict a strong convergent axis pointed into northeast Illinois for an extended period of time. If this were to occur in conjunction with the increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, some heavy snow showers would be expected. The EC does too but is more transient. What decreases confidence is that the NAM is more progressive with this convergent axis and does not linger it as long, but has several transient periods of synoptic/lake enhancement Monday night and again Tuesday afternoon in Illinois, but has the convergent axis focused a bit farther east more into southern Cook county eastward into Indiana. The 6z NAM is not that impressive either. Confidence and Headlines: We feel confident there will be lake effect snows regardless of how long they last, but certainly impacts hazard decisions. These situations are challenging, even at a shorter distance, but a signal is there for a potentially significant event if things come together. The lake effect will also shift into Northwest Indiana where conditions remain favorable for at least occasional snow showers through the day Wednesday, possibly significant as well. It is possible we will need to handle this event with a separate headline. We do taper the advisory towards Livingston county the earliest once rates ease and temperatures become marginal, hold onto areas away from the core Chicago metro through the day, with the highest impacts on the earlier side. Finally, we have not changed the end time of the lake adjacent counties yet (late Monday evening) as this will be the time synoptic snows ease in Indiana, while lake effect processes begin to ramp up in WI and NE IL. Did not have high enough confidence to do a lake effect snow/winter storm watch for lake effect snow in NE IL just yet, though it is conceivable one could be issued as we get closer. And for Indiana, it as mentioned earlier significant snows could fall there from lake effect but the time window is more Tuesday into Wednesday. It is also possible that the advisory could be extended for a transient but potent band of snow (note: Milwaukee has their advisory for the whole event to cover both the synoptic and lake effect). We have chosen to not run out a long drawn out advisory at this point as there could be a break, and due to the higher impact potential of round two.
  4. heard euro is a solid hit around here with 7-8 inches and 9 inches by the lake in lake county.
  5. chicago prelim snowfall map http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=lot#.WMRuKfkrKUk URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 245 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...Prolonged period of light to moderate snow expected... .Snow will spread across southern Wisconsin Sunday evening and not end until Monday evening over south central Wisconsin. Lake effect snow will continue the snow into Tuesday for far eastern Wisconsin. 4 to 9 inches of powdery snow is forecast with the highest amounts southwest of Madison and over far eastern Wisconsin due to lake enhanced snow. Modest east to northeast winds are expected with some blowing and drifting snow to occur. Motorists can expect snow covered roads and reduced visibilities. WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072-120445- /O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0010.170313T0300Z-170314T1800Z/ Sheboygan-Washington-Ozaukee-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Racine, and Kenosha 245 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect from 10 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday. * TIMING...Expect snow to develop late Sunday evening and then diminish around the middle of the day on Tuesday. * PRECIPITATION RATES...The heaviest snowfall rates will occur between midnight and noon on Monday well inland from Lake Michigan...with heavier snowfall rates continuing at times over the lake counties into Monday night and Tuesday morning. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches are expected with the highest totals in the lake counties. The snow will be dry and powdery. * WINDS / VISIBILITIES...East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph for late Monday afternoon and night. Gusts up to 20 to 25 mph especially near Lake Michigan. Patchy blowing snow and drifting is expected. Look for reduced visibilities. * IMPACTS...Plan on difficult driving conditions...including during the morning commute on Monday and Tuesday. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph with patchy blowing snow and some drifting expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A winter weather advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for Wisconsin can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by visiting www.511wi.gov.
  6. Canadian http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017010712&fh=228&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  7. total freezing rain from 12Z NAM http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2017010712&fh=72&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  8. National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 308 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... 308 PM CST Through Sunday... Will be issuing a Winter Storm Warning for Lake and Porter counties in Indiana for the likelihood of an intense band of lake effect snow moving across northern portions of the counties later this evening through the overnight hours. Up to 3 to 7 inches of snow could fall where the most intense snow occurs, with snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour likely. In association with or just behind the most intense portion of the band, winds will gust from the north-northwest to 35-40 mph, causing significant blowing and drifting snow and substantial visibility reductions. Made no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Chill Advisories for the remainder of the area. Castro
  9. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121718&fh=24&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  10. CHICAGO NWS UPDATE FXUS63 KLOT 110259 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 859 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE... 855 PM CST Evening Update... No changes planned to forecast or headlines at this time, though will be making some minimal changes to near term pops based on radar/obs trends. Initial region of warm-advection forced light snow overspread the region late this afternoon as anticipated, with heavier (mainly moderate) snowfall within a region of frontogenetically-forced northwest-southeast bands. Recent radar trends show this banding has weakened and lifted northeast across southeast WI, Lake Michigan and northern IN at this time. However, 00Z DVN sounding depicts a fairly deeply saturated column with nice veering wind profile signature associated with strong warm-advection. Within this region of persistent upglide, latest high-res guidance continues to support regeneration of transient f-gen banding which should continue to result in periods of moderate or greater intensity snowfall. While we`re currently in a lull in radar returns especially across the western parts of the cwa, stronger returns are blossoming across portions of eastern IA, and would expect an uptick in coverage and intensity later this evening/overnight as forcing and moisture advection persist. With the first band working to moisten initially dry low-levels, will likely see additional bands more efficient in lowering vis and producing heavier snow, and latest RAP soundings suggest a decent period of deeper dendritic growth after 05-06Z. Initial bands of snow have produced 2+" of new snow in many spots across the warning area, which is in line with going forecast amounts through 06Z. Thus not inclined to make any big changes at this time, with expected redevelopment and increase in snow coverage and intensity later tonight.
  11. yes it took that heavy band that on 12z was over chitown and north and move it over southern burbs and northern Indiana. Whoever gets under the band is going to do quite well.
  12. nice run but nice as juicy as the 12Z for chitown and north but great improvement for chitown and south burbs. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121018&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  13. and 48hrs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=
  14. 12Z NAM thru 33 hrs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpd
  15. not saying your wrong but arent you a big Euro guy?