HillsdaleMIWeather

18Z NAM is depressing even for the all snow areas

IWX saying WSW will probably be needed but no watch Edit: lol they just issued one

The WPC says to take all the non GFS models including yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro and blend them together No significant changes were noted with the closed low as it weakens east into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday morning. Regarding the upstream, large scale trough, the 00Z UKMET trended a little slower, while the 00Z CMC trended a little faster compared to their 12Z cycles. The 00Z ECMWF also trended slower and slightly weaker with the trough progression beginning Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday through Thursday morning, the 00Z deterministic guidance shows reasonable agreement outside of the faster 00Z GFS, though minor non-GFS differences remain. Given some of the changes from cycle to cycle, the final preference will not be to jump completely on board with the non 00Z GFS suite of models (despite their relative agreement), but to nudge in that direction from the 12Z ECMWF position. Therefore, the final preference is to take the 12Z ECMWF and blend it with a 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NAM blend.

That meltdown over the 0Z NAM slowing down making everyone think the storm disappeared proves how terrible this winter has been

0Z GEM actually a touch north and weaker

Rainer

I know... but someone here has to kill the last shred of hope

The ICON has caved. Rainer on all.

18Z GFS is an Alek special

First light flakes here falling

Sucks how this is all gonna get eaten by the rain

Couple hours ahead of schedule at least

Good news for this event: Pivotal added the UKMET

tfw gonna be dryslotted

Up to 4 inches here