HillsdaleMIWeather

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the Volusia-Brevard County line.

Wasn't enough in the end

Euro coming in West

It actually ends up further west north so it's not even really a trend

06Z GFS is back west, even a touch west of 18Z

0Z HWRF landfalls at 81

HMON is west of 18Z

0Z GFS south and west at 30

0Z Spaghetti plots are a shift west

Do note the 18Z is a derivative of the 12Z run and uses it's data

NHC holds at 150mph

GFS west through 30

NHC about the east trend: The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

GEFS Mean landfalls near Cape Canaveral