HillsdaleMIWeather

Sun trying it's hardest to come out here right now

Majority of the rain is moving off, might actually get some sun after all

02 HRRR took a step back in the right direction

0Z NAM looks mediocre at first, then supercell city

Considering the high res models have the dew points lower than they actually are right now, the higher numbers might happen.

Considering a sizable chunk of the subforum is now under a Slight Risk with Enhanced being considered, good time for a thread. ..LOWER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY A STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER, AND LOW-TO-MID 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WHILE THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH, FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MI. ADDITIONALLY, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN FROM KY/IN INTO MI AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT BY MIDDAY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED LEADS TO A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, 6.5-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, IMPRESSIVE/LARGE CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WHILE THIS PARAMETER SPACE IS MORE THAN CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES, QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE DAY 1/WED PERIOD, WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AT THE START OF THE DAY 2/THU PERIOD. IMPACTS OF THIS CONVECTION/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ON DESTABILIZATION, AND HOW FAR/QUICKLY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES BY THURSDAY MORNING MAKES FOR A QUITE CONDITIONAL SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MI. UNCERTAINTY AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME ACROSS PARTS OF KY/IN/MI/OH, BUT POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR A HIGHER-END THREAT TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THIS REGION, AS IMPLIED BY VARIOUS CAMS IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

Agreed, ice and winds are picking up here

IWX upgraded a few more as well

Went from nothing straight to freezing rain here

IWX upgraded my county only. I promise I didn't take over the computer lol

Toledo has been upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning

IWX, GRR, DTX, and CLE considering Ice Storm Warning upgrades

GEM nails Southern MI, GFS is rain

18Z GFS is a touch north

The other models give us a good amount, the NAM wants to knock out our power