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snowlover2

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About snowlover2

  • Birthday July 30

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDAY
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Dayton,OH

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  1. snowlover2

    August 20-21 Severe Weather

    New day 1.
  2. snowlover2

    August 20-21 Severe Weather

    A few counties in NW IN just added to current watch. That seems pretty telling that it's not going as far south as expected.
  3. snowlover2

    August 20-21 Severe Weather

    The new day 3 disco is short but with strong wording calling for a MCS with possible destructive winds because of extreme instability and also saying upgrades being likely in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
  4. snowlover2

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    And the disco mentions an upgrade to moderate risk might be needed later.
  5. snowlover2

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    An enhanced area has been added to central IL for tomorrow on new day 2.
  6. snowlover2

    July 20-21 Severe Wx

    Warning just west of me with a 61mph winds reported at the Dayton Airport.
  7. snowlover2

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    You are correct. It was a tornado watch from MO/AR to KY/TN. There were 2 PDS severe thunderstorm watches to the west of that earlier that morning. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2009/ww0267.html
  8. snowlover2

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Also mentioned possibly a derecho. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon to evening. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal flow regime across the northern states. A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by guidance. The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60 kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant severe wind gusts
  9. snowlover2

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Moderate risk now for parts of MN/WI with a 15% tornado area.
  10. snowlover2

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Still the one from yesterday. Seems odd they didn't update it today.
  11. snowlover2

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Latest from CPC has a high excessive heat area now for the mid MS Valley area.
  12. snowlover2

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Westward expansion of the extreme heat areas on todays outlook.
  13. snowlover2

    July 2019 General Discussion

    GFS/Euro both showing DP's getting into the 80's across a decent chunk of the sub which would certainly help verify this.
  14. snowlover2

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Hit 90 for a 5th straight day before the storms hit.
  15. snowlover2

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Dayton airport recorded a 63mph wind with a microburst a little more than an hour ago.
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