largetornado

There is a dry slot right out in front of these storms. Wonder how much that plays into it. Nothing to the east or south of existing storms has been able to sustain

Interestingly, the SPC had a SCTD risk for d1 convective outlook which translates to moderate todays

Found this on Twitter. WRF simulation of 4/3/74. thought it would be interesting to post this and see how a thread would go based on this model output. https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/SuperOutbreak1974/ another model https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1775667383816143284?s=46

Dew points rebounding in ky nicely. Winds are pretty veered though.

Anyone know if the radars being down affect model inputs? (From my understanding, NWS offices can still see their radars but the feed is down.)

SPC sticking with the moderate with a massive hatched tornado risk Spc basically said ignore the nam .

03z HRRR takes the pressure down to 987. Time for bed and we shall see tomorrow.

At this point, will the EML in Arkansas/Southern MO/TN be eroded by that ongoing convection or will it inhibit it?

Yes from a messaging standpoint, this could be a mess. The miss earlier this month may or may not have played a part with the 15%. I would assume the afternoon outlook was late because there was a significant amount of discussion around the 15%. Realistically I think it’s a good forecast if the area circled in red does not materialize. If it does, the threat for Ohio would likely be significantly degraded. 0z sounding from ILN shows a minor inversion. Might prohibit some early morning convection?

Some disagreement between rap, hrrr, nam, and nam3k. It’s a wake up and see kind oF a day which is typical for the OV.

18z HRRR isnt backing down. Brings the threat more towards indy and reflectivity is showing a more discrete environment, with cells starting to grow upscale after crossing into ohio.

11/17/13 is only event i recall but the tor risk only extended into western ohio. 3/2/12 was mainly kentucky and SW ohio. For the entirety of ohio, nothing comes to mind.

An impressive run for sigtor ingredients

While tomorrow is looking very volatile, the nocturnal threat tonight is not something to sleep on.