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largetornado

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Everything posted by largetornado

  1. https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1773359186484601075?s=46
  2. Based on the GFS over the past 4-5 days, looks like our next chance of severe is going to be 3/28-4/3.
  3. ILN was on it. Give them props. There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two.
  4. by my latest count, 4 killed in Winchester and at least 6 killed in Ohio.
  5. Look at the STP Map from the 18z HRRR. And the mesoscale analysis had STP of 3+ for a lot of Ohio throughout the day that could have been caught by the 4pm update. Additionally effective SRH(IMO the signal biggest predictor of strong/violent tornadoes) was 300+ on the Mesoanalysis. I’m just saying to not raise to an enhanced, was a mistake based on the signals I saw. My guess is the SPC was thinking veering would tamper any threats which veering was specifically mentioned in the 4pm update
  6. Agreed. There was a clear signal a 10% was justified by noon.
  7. At least 3 killed in winchester per Jenny dressier on twittter . Mobile homes hit
  8. 60/40 tor probs issued for Ohio valley.
  9. For whatever reason, the warm front, as it lifts over central Indiana has me really intrigued . (also I think I found the tightest hodo for a PDS TOR Sounding)
  10. These storms around 12z…any chance they lay a boundary that interacts with the warm front as it lifts north and fire storms?
  11. Bingo. What makes sense to us can and often times confuses the general public. IE, watch vs warnings.
  12. After looking at 18z, HRRR would have me chasing wednesday. If i went off the nam suite, i would not chase at all but its apparently been having problems this year. At this point, any storms that can become surface based will have a top tier environment to work with. I wish the SPC had a outlook that conveyed spatial coverage as well as potential intensity. Tomorrow would be a slight risk for storm coverage and a moderate risk for intensity IMO.
  13. FWIW, the HREF has a pretty bullish convective signal for Iowa/mo/ill area. Secondary, hinting at some early activity in Indiana south of i70
  14. Yep. Warm front or very close to the triple point. Unless some subtle forcing mechanism occurs in the warm sector, it looks like it will be capped.
  15. NAM has some ridiculous 850 temps. In my untrained eye, NAM favors cap bust. Nam 3km points to a cap bust/nocturnal threat, as someone pointed out HRRR is trending towards mixing issues.
  16. MUCAPE of 4500 per nam 3k at 18z tuesday. Lmao
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