largetornado

I really think they need an office for the northern plains, central plains, Midwest, and Dixie. All have those areas have their nuances with tornado forecasting

Did damage west of oakwood.

The daytime portion definitely busted. The nighttime portion still has time but we will see. Ohio warm fronts are bad news.

TDAY is down until further notice. Anyone chasing in that area will be critical to the early warning process as the lowest WSD88 beam is 5-7k ft in parts of Ohio.

Slight risk for D2. Little surprising

well thats a concerning development. NAM is starting to show a secondary low over illinois.

I definitely got ahead of myself. Runs today have significantly downtrended the northern end of the threat.

https://x.com/ryanwx_/status/1786761871485219061?s=46 Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look impressive With a decent EML advecting in, morning convection shouldn’t really pose that much of an issue. Per the nam, fairly discrete storms could be expected

Tuesday is now coming into range of the nam. Looks like a stout MCS forms in the evening on Monday and rapidly moves east. Based on trends, I expect illinois to be rain free by 15z Tuesday. Also seems like a faster solution is more likely pushing the threat further east on Tuesday. 18z euro is a little bit more amplified and a little slower.

So there has been a consistent signal of severe weather for various portions of the subforum next week. Right now, Wednesday looks to be the day but Monday-thursday all show some potential. With multiple waves, it is going to be a complicated week. The only thing that we know at this point is that there will be more the sufficient upper level flow over a very favorable parameter space. Selected sounding is from west central ohio on wednesday. If this thread is premature, feel free to delete it.

Surface winds look fairly backed. Care to post a sounding or two from the euro?

Next wednesday, 5/8 is worth keeping an eye. GFS is spitting out PDS soundings with limited precip in the morning. With an EML present at 15z and 850 temps remaining around 15-16c, storms would be fairly discrete. A little shortwave over Indy and plenty of forcing, could be a big day. The winds are a little more veered than i would like to see but with WSW flow at 500 mb, there is still some good directional shear present.

There is a dry slot right out in front of these storms. Wonder how much that plays into it. Nothing to the east or south of existing storms has been able to sustain

Interestingly, the SPC had a SCTD risk for d1 convective outlook which translates to moderate todays

Found this on Twitter. WRF simulation of 4/3/74. thought it would be interesting to post this and see how a thread would go based on this model output. https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/SuperOutbreak1974/ another model https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1775667383816143284?s=46

Dew points rebounding in ky nicely. Winds are pretty veered though.

Anyone know if the radars being down affect model inputs? (From my understanding, NWS offices can still see their radars but the feed is down.)

SPC sticking with the moderate with a massive hatched tornado risk Spc basically said ignore the nam .

03z HRRR takes the pressure down to 987. Time for bed and we shall see tomorrow.

At this point, will the EML in Arkansas/Southern MO/TN be eroded by that ongoing convection or will it inhibit it?

Yes from a messaging standpoint, this could be a mess. The miss earlier this month may or may not have played a part with the 15%. I would assume the afternoon outlook was late because there was a significant amount of discussion around the 15%. Realistically I think it’s a good forecast if the area circled in red does not materialize. If it does, the threat for Ohio would likely be significantly degraded. 0z sounding from ILN shows a minor inversion. Might prohibit some early morning convection?

Some disagreement between rap, hrrr, nam, and nam3k. It’s a wake up and see kind oF a day which is typical for the OV.

18z HRRR isnt backing down. Brings the threat more towards indy and reflectivity is showing a more discrete environment, with cells starting to grow upscale after crossing into ohio.

11/17/13 is only event i recall but the tor risk only extended into western ohio. 3/2/12 was mainly kentucky and SW ohio. For the entirety of ohio, nothing comes to mind.