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largetornado

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Everything posted by largetornado

  1. largetornado
    Look at the STP Map from the 18z HRRR. And the mesoscale analysis had STP of 3+ for a lot of Ohio throughout the day that could have been caught by the 4pm update. Additionally effective SRH(IMO the signal biggest predictor of strong/violent tornadoes) was 300+ on the Mesoanalysis. I’m just saying to not raise to an enhanced, was a mistake based on the signals I saw. My guess is the SPC was thinking veering would tamper any threats which veering was specifically mentioned in the 4pm update
  2. largetornado
    Agreed. There was a clear signal a 10% was justified by noon.
  3. largetornado
    At least 3 killed in winchester per Jenny dressier on twittter . Mobile homes hit
  4. largetornado
    Ok then
  5. largetornado
    SE Indiana tornado warning. Confirmed
  6. largetornado
    Unusually bullish from ILN.
  7. largetornado
    60/40 tor probs issued for Ohio valley.
  8. largetornado
    Strong strong tornado right there. Damn
  9. largetornado
    Was the random kokomo wedge in 2015?
  10. largetornado
    Silly hobby
  11. largetornado
    Look at all the gravity waves
  12. largetornado
    For whatever reason, the warm front, as it lifts over central Indiana has me really intrigued . (also I think I found the tightest hodo for a PDS TOR Sounding)
  13. largetornado
    These storms around 12z…any chance they lay a boundary that interacts with the warm front as it lifts north and fire storms?
  14. largetornado
    Bingo. What makes sense to us can and often times confuses the general public. IE, watch vs warnings.
  15. largetornado
    After looking at 18z, HRRR would have me chasing wednesday. If i went off the nam suite, i would not chase at all but its apparently been having problems this year. At this point, any storms that can become surface based will have a top tier environment to work with. I wish the SPC had a outlook that conveyed spatial coverage as well as potential intensity. Tomorrow would be a slight risk for storm coverage and a moderate risk for intensity IMO.
  16. largetornado
    FWIW, the HREF has a pretty bullish convective signal for Iowa/mo/ill area. Secondary, hinting at some early activity in Indiana south of i70
  17. largetornado
    Yep. Warm front or very close to the triple point. Unless some subtle forcing mechanism occurs in the warm sector, it looks like it will be capped.
  18. largetornado
    NAM has some ridiculous 850 temps. In my untrained eye, NAM favors cap bust. Nam 3km points to a cap bust/nocturnal threat, as someone pointed out HRRR is trending towards mixing issues.
  19. largetornado
    HRRR isn’t shy
  20. largetornado
    MUCAPE of 4500 per nam 3k at 18z tuesday. Lmao
  21. largetornado
    0z nam rolling in. Looks like a shift west
  22. largetornado
    Looking through some soundings. Looks to be a fairly stout inversion right above 850. Failure mode?
  23. largetornado
    Had some more time to look at the models. The warm sector is enormous with favorable parameters throughout. If the nam has its way, the warm sector is going to be relatively free of contaminating crapvection. (GFS and euro agree with the minimal rainfall in the warm sector as well) Good forcing throughout the warm sector…it certainly seems this could be a very high end event over a widespread area.
  24. largetornado
    First sounding I picked from the NAM.
  25. largetornado
    Tornado just dropped NE of Fort Wayne. Good debris ball
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