largetornado

FWIW, it looks as if the threat to the southern half of subforum is growing for Thursday. 06z HRRR popped some significant STP values.

ILN vwp hodo

Sunday may be the first of a series of active days across the subforum. Analogs have a few solid tornado events. (6/22/91, 6/6/2010, 6/4/2008) Sounding is from around indy at 21z. Not overly impressed with wind profile. Pretty veered at surface and highish LCL's.

Couple severe thunderstorm warnings in Kentucky. Surprised that SPC does not have out MD or watch.

Indiana has pretty good parameters tomorrow...Might be a late sleeper if stuff can form.

Large part of the subforum under a marginal risk today. ...Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, offering sporadic wind damage, with isolated severe (50+ kt) gusts and marginally severe hail possible. A narrow corridor of favorable return-flow moisture should advect northeastward through the warm sector just ahead of the front, with surface dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s F. This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to yield a field of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE for a few hours this afternoon, with surface-based effective-inflow parcels at least briefly possible as far northeast as western NY. Low-level and deep-tropospheric speed shear should be favorable, though the prefrontal flow will be nearly unidirectional in vertical profile.

1777 tornadoes with the first high risk coming on April 23rd in central illinois

CFS disagrees lol

Legit question...Will we even see 600 tornadoes this year? At 320ish now.

This nugget in the D4-8 outlook.....