Scott747

This has more of an Allison feel as opposed to Harvey.

If it starts deepening into daybreak then it may be onto something...

HAFS-A goes NAM into landfall. 14 mb drop the last 3 hrs....

Hey at least it's a chasable track now. 82 between Port Arthur and Holly Beach has a couple of bridges to take refuge on with a weaker storm like this when surge comes in. Of course they are teasing you with the hurricane watch not to mention recon with the 'eyewall beginning to form.

Satellite imagery looks horrible. Radar at least shows some banding on the northern side but overall the southern side looks devoid of much right now.

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

Outlook does imply they may bypass a PTC and go straight to a TS watch/warning at 10 or 5. Makes sense with the blowup this evening and better model support. Looks to be on track between High Island and Cameron for the watch/warning. Might extend down to Galveston.

This close to land and landfall? Pretty high. Just need a few reliable obs. Does appear there is a good circulation but most of the day it had no real convective activity around it. I'd still guess without recon in there they will go PTC first and full upgrade in the morning unless it goes bonkers tonight.

Doubt they would do a special for a PTC. Could get a hint that one is coming with the update at 7 and going red.

NHC is still old school and likes the 10 pm news cycle on a Sunday night so I'd be surprised if they didn't designate a PTC or even straight to depression at 10. Weekday and this might have been a PTC at 5, although it still seemed a little early this afternoon with the lack of storms around the center.

Slow season is getting to you I see....

This is total bs. You won't find one video of any chaser standing directly in legit sustained major hurricane/typhoon winds.

Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted. This one I'm on edge. Little nervous about the elevation....

Josh is pretty much locked in. Structure he's in looks to be sound and thick concrete reinforced. Crazy to still be able to communicate with him....

Imminent reading coming up from the second recon mission. Not surprising but the gradient is insane.