Maestrobjwa

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Would love to see a forecast moving toward that elusive pit of gold that is a moderate Niño...Ya know, is is possible to like...save ourselves the seasonal angst and just predict what the winter will look like based on past El nino/la nina/neutral histories? I mean the only true scenario that can go one way or the other is a neutral, right? The rest seem predictable: Weak El Nino: basically will look like what we saw last winter: some snow, but just about "average"--no "big blows" per se, nice scenery snow but nothing major. Mod El Niño: Game on. Strong El Niño: Either one big blizzard or nothing at all. Neutral: Keep tracking because this can be boom or bust. La Niña: Forget it. Don't look at models, forecasts, etc...move to ocean city and New Jersey and further north in order to shovel, lol I mean...is there any point in considering any other factor once we know what the ENSO is gonna be?

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

Wow so this is what a Colorado summer feels like? Sounds awesome!

I'm telling ya--I haven't known what season it is! Lol (If it weren't for the sun angle heating up the cars, you'd forget it was June!)

Me neither...In times where ya think monthly or at least weekly seasonal forecasting should be getting better...why does it feel like it got worse last winter? I mean I don't believe anything those models spit out now--they proved themselves absolutely clueless, lol

So do we have any more threat of storms today?

Ya didn't get enough over the 365+ days of pure soakage we just went through? Lol

So uh...I'd love for this year not to end up in the top 5 wettest years again...all of those years were followed by average snow (like last winter) to below average snow...no 20+ inch totals on that list (last winter fell right into line, smh). Really been an incredible run of rain we've been on!

Well that's part of the plan, actually...lol Hence the term rebuilding! I always refer to the Astros...I would be willing to bet they still looked awful the first two or three years of that rebuild before things finally took shape! (and now here we are with people at the helm who were apart of that epic rebuild! Go Elias!)

To you as well! The Lord is risen indeed!

Dang they can get snow AND hail? Wow--would love to have that climate here!!

I just don't understand...How could a brand new model be so screwed up? Lol

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle Seems to be a good article on the predicted upcoming solar activity...Now, I don't know much about the correlation with our snowier winters, but--I like this sentence, lol "The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum - the period when the Sun is least active - late in 2019 or 2020." Well that would fit in quite nicely with next winter wouldn't it? (they also mentioned that the entire cycle would be weaker similar to this one we're coming out of) If there be any correlation at all...c'mon mod nino!!! Haha

Seriously what is the deal with this thing? Lol What did somebody screw up in designing it?