Maestrobjwa

Thought your Avatar might melt if ya came out before December But a good maestro trolling draws ya out--how about that! Welcome back, lol

Man...we had to deal with so much atmospheric crap last winter, it's a wonder how we even averaged 15-18"+!

From what little I learned a couple years ago about volcanos...the eruption has to be pretty substantial to impact anything globally (the larger the eruption the higher the higher the ash gets into the air). I believe the last one strong enough for that was Pinatubo in 1991 (I think that ended up kinda robbing us of the effects of a mod Niño according to someone on here). There have been, of course, other climate-impacting eruptions in modern history. The most impactful was the eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815...It led to infamous "year without a summer" (and Frankenstein and the poem "Darkness" was inspired as a result, lol). There's a high death toll associated with it that volcano due to the famine that caused by summer essentially getting cancelled the next year. That was probably the most impactful eruption in modern history.

Lol Yeah I just asked about NBC because of the timing of his post (it was less than 20 mins after it aired)

A relaxed flow would be nice...because my goodness last winter was a freeway! (with the SE ridge being a jerk in the road) We were hearing the term "progressive" all winter! (P.S. My snow weenism doesn't like analogs...even if they don't mean much. When I see articles like this list a bunch of years that didn't produce much, I go "ick!" But again, doesn't mean much this early, I suppose)

Were you just watching NBC Nightly News? Lol

My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread.

So the advertised "high activity" period this was supposed to be won't be much of a threat, huh?

Eh, it is still better than getting a nina...I had focused more on the weak nino as the problem since many of the other weak ninos finished with similar snowfall totals at BWI (15"-18"). Could we say that weak ninos underperform more often because they tend to be less dominant and more susceptible to negative factors overall? (and how many 20"+ weak ninos do we have, I wonder...)

But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!)

So now we have the polar opposite conditions from this time last year...lol So would we see earlier foliage as opposed to later?

Ohh trust me, I am...From here on, I'd much rather look at history. Because last year had two simple historical red flags that proved true: 1) The extremely wet year. Top 5 wet years were all followed by mediocre snowfall winters 2) The Weak El Niño. I'm wondering if the historical numbers that we see in previous weak niños...were all because of the nino getting pushed around by other factors due to it not coupling to the atmosphere

Nooooooo...Keep that weak Niño outta here! Hope we can keep this neutral! (Lest we suffer another 15-18" sporadic winter...better than nothing, but still)

Oh yeah? (and how will they know Huh...Keep wondering whether we benefit this winter or the next! (results seem to be mixed...and there were a couple times where we didn't benefit much. But the last three times, we have!)

Well I mean...with this particular stat, ya gotta hope there's no correlation--because none of those years except 2009 preceded good winters, lol