Terpeast

Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point the boom/mid/bust split is 19/16/16

So basically equal chances of boom, bust, or mid

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that.

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.

New euro doesn’t come out until 5th of each month. Tomorrow

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Cue the snarky data centers comments on Jay’s Wintry Mix page

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It will be interesting to see how the negative PDO interacts with the east based nino. Historically east based isn’t good for us, especially if the PDO is positive because too strong of a GOA low would flood the continent with mild air cutting off any polar flow. How will the negative PDO interacts with that is the big question. GOA low still amplified with a stronger jet further north? Or weaker and further west low that allows polar air to move south? I think we’re in uncharted territory and the analogs can only do so much here.

At least its showing up on modeling, now lets see if it actually verifies.

Differences are PDO (97-98 was super +PDO so careful what we wish for) and 1965-66 was low solar (we’re high but descending). I think a blend of these will land us close to what’ll happen this winter - milder and wetter than normal with elevated big dog potential. Other than that, not a whole lot to parse. Key thing to watch is where and how strong the Canadian ridge is. Too strong and too far east, storms either suppressed or rain. More west, we get colder air with a still active STJ.

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs: 1997-98 2015-16 1982-83 1965-66 I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these.

Those cansips 2m maps are probably wrong for the northern tier, where 500mb shows ridging in those areas. BN temps probably confined to tennessee valley and south, with us being NN or a couple degrees above.

I’m thinking +3 or so DJF for the mid atlantic, but with plenty of shots at a KU. Same page?