Terpeast

Last night saved me from a total bust. 0.9”

Hoping I get another chance for significant rainfall today with the expanded flood watch

Only 0.05” imby

This wasn't about tropical cyclones...

No reason to think next winter will be much different than the last winter or the last several. Enso may not be a big player this year, so I’d lean more on the pdo and polar domain. Qbo going negative, but solar may have already maxed. No idea yet.

One of the things we’re working on with AI models is using hindcast climatology where the 10-15+ day cold bias is much less or no longer there. This might help solve the problem of models being too cold in their medium range forecasts. It’ll also be interesting to see if that also solves the bias of weaker upper level wind flow predictions vs reality.

If you’re talking about the biggest KU storms, I tend to agree. But there have been instances in recent winters where sub-KU storms have actually trended south in the last 24-72 hours. In the 2023-24 winter, my subforum (at least the central part) got 4-6” flush hits twice in the same week that trended to us the last minute after being modeled to go through PA/NY. This past winter, we’ve had a few happen the same way. Including one in late Feb that missed us and hit SE VA with a foot of snow, leaving us high and dry. So I guess it can cut both ways.

0.18” here this morning. May got me 8.77” for the month!

Got 1.6” this past event.

0.3” so far

Dry here. Just completely fringed. Glad this isn’t a snowstorm lol!

Don’t look now, but WCS daily PDO is no longer negative for the first time in many years

Haven’t been following the forecasts lately. I got 0.76” last night. Was that within forecast range?

C+/B- ended up with 17”, just a few inches short of climo but more days with snowcover during a cold january. Got lucky with the feb storm reaching warning criteria with a sharp cutoff just to the NW of me. Biggest storm of the season 7.5”

It’s interesting that athough the pac jet was stronger again this year, it was placed more equatorward compared to other recent winters since 2019. Makes sense as the south saw a lot of snow relative to their climo.