Terpeast

They’re giving it a 56% chance of a strong nino, and 84% chance moderate or higher.

I saw that in 2014. Major inversion you couldn’t see the city from the plane descending out of the mountains into SLC. Then drove up to Logan, and it was -10F and I couldn’t even see the surrounding mountains. It was all white.

Donned N95s when I went out this morning. Was planning to take my wife out on a date in the mountains today, but took a rainch- .. uhh, smoke-check instead. Next week probably. AirVisual says 281, Purpleair says 369.

All I see is brown

I use the AirVisual app

AQI stuck at 170-175 all morning through noon

There was another paper I came across that said that wwbs may not necessarily lead a nino. I forget where though.

As far as solar goes, I don’t think our current cycle is that high. We’ve seen much higher before. Don’t think I would give it much weight unless solar activity doubles from where it is now, which I doubt will happen.

DCA 100 IAD 101 BWI 101 RIC 99

Take away the date/time stamps and gpm values…

Topped at 93 in ashburn. Hot and dry

I’m working on a side project to try and prove this out by using adjustments on daily temp and precip data at KIAD including SWE, to today’s climate to tease out whether a 15” storm in the 60s, 70s, or 80s would actually produce more today. I will also tease out, statistically, on how 2-4” events from the past would be affected in today’s climate. Hopefully I’ll come up with the results this summer.

And I also want to see 850mb temps (idk if that’s available on those seasonal forecasts). Our DJF climo is -4C at that level, plenty cold enough for snow. So near normal climo would be good enough.

Looks that way. Just looking at that chart, you’d think 2022 was an interesting year compared to the 80s and 90s when I grew up here. But it was the most boring severe wx season I’ve ever seen. The 90s were far more interesting, and even witnessed a few hailstorms. One produced sizes between golf balls and tennis balls.

2019 must have been a fun one!