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About Terpeast

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Ashburn, VA

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  1. 88.5 so far, Ashburn. Yesterday’s high was 91.5 dews slow to mix out. 65
  2. Just going by the strength and scale of the ridge, I think 93-97 is a safe bet for DMV
  3. Good points. I would think that if we’re going be on the cool ENSO side of neutral, 2016-17 would be a better analog match than 2014-15 since the latter was in a +pdo regime whereas we’ve been in -pdo since the 2015-16 super nino. Despite the +1.5 rise in the PDO, still think we’ll stay negative through this year and next unless it actually breaks through into positive territory, which is remotely possible if that warm blob migrates eastward to the NA west coast.
  4. Honestly, out of all the neutral winters since 1999, most were pretty bad except for 2013-14. The worst ones was when we had a -pdo background state. So for the MA, I don’t think it’ll make much difference whether cold neutral or La Nina. It’ll be a warm -pdo winter either way.
  5. Crazy to see that it barely missed me to the north. It was pretty quiet down here.
  6. And for the west Pac to cool, too. But no sign of that happening yet.
  7. I still wonder if the discharge of radioactive water off Japan has played, or is playing a role, in this marine heat wave. Perhaps a small role, and its more likely that changes in atmospheric circulations thanks to the WP warm pool is playing a larger role. But I don’t really know for sure. Also notice the marine heat wave seems to be spreading eastward with its extent all the way south of the GOA. One way we could see wholesale pacific changes is if that heat wave spreads all the way to the western coast of NA, while it abates off Japan and NW of Hawaii. Then we’d circle back to a 2013-15-like pattern. But that remains to be seen whether it happens, if ever. And if it does, it could take a few years.
  8. 100% And we need wholesale changes across the entire basin to make it favorable.
  9. I know your post is focused on KW (for good reason, huge 2 day jump) but look at the entire Atlantic. It’s effin boiling! I cannot look at this map without being alarmed for our futures, not to mention our local snowfall prospects.
  10. Such a broad area of warm ssta across 90% of the north pacific makes me suspect that the global circulation cells are expanding northward, resulting in a more northward shift in the jet stream. If this keeps up through winter, we’ll likely see the jet stream blast warm pac air across NA, except it won’t be going underneath as in a nino… but rather over the top. Scary to think about potential temp departures come winter. In case I wasn't black pilled about this coming winter, I am now.
  11. Seems to be the opposite of last year when I was constantly getting missed and split. Now it seems to hit here with a daily downpour.
  12. Second round was windier than the first, heavier rain. Last year I didn’t get trained on like this. Nice event today
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