Terpeast

I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. Cansips DJF

Few minutes after peak

That was cool, even though it wasn’t totality here. Amazing stuff even so. Sun was just a sliver. Felt the acute cooldown and dimdown

Getting close to 90% coverage

75% coverage now. Feels cooler, slightly darker. Sitting out on my deck with a beverage… lots of big black birds are out now all of a sudden…

Wow, you even captured the diamond ring effect!

Yet another deck incoming, when just a few minutes ago everything looked clear. Pretty sure it’ll stay thin enough. 35% coverage

Think this cloud deck went over me before you, but i could still see the sun through, so its mostly fine now clearing up here (ashburn)

Skies appear to be opening up. Game on! 20% coverage now

Thicker layer of clouds incoming

First contact made. 5% of sun clipped off can see through the thin layer of clouds

Breaks in clouds, growing more confident that I’ll see a partial eclipse with special sunglasses at around 3-3:30 pm

Zero signs that the Japanese marine heat wave is ending. Looks like a carbon copy of 2022-23

Low of 34, but frost everywhere.

Just graded my 23-24 winter outlook:

Grading my 23-24 winter outlook vs actual results Temperatures: Decent match spatially, but off on the magnitude of the warmth. It's not just us being really warm, it's everywhere. Including Canada. Grade: B- Precipitation: Good match spatially and magnitude, a little bit off on the precip maxes though both midwest and east coast. I was highly confident of a wet winter, and that did happen. Grade: A- Snowfall: Truth is, I had at least one big storm baked into my snowfall outlook even through I cited only a 15-30% chance of a HECS. Well, that didn't happen obviously, so my snowfall guess was shot to hell. Grade: F Overall: I think my methodology and use of MEI led to an OK outlook, but was a little overconfident on blocking. We did get blocking, but each episode was either too brief, or occurred in the wrong places. Unfortunately, the MEI is no more, and I will have to either use RONI or a different method altogether for next year's outlook. Overall grade: C

Yeah, I’d have to compare my conus temp/precip maps in my outlook vs actual, should be a decent match. What went wrong was my snowfall outlook had baked in at least one big storm. Which didn’t happen.

Low of 27

Low of 29. No frost because its so dry

Smoke in ashburn. Where are the fires?

Early peak and decay may give us a modoki nina, worst case scenario for the east if you like cold and snow.

Repeat of last years canada wildfires?

Thanks, that gives me a clue to which analogs would make a good starting set and add others based on QBO and PDO (and of course, adjust each warmer by a couple degrees...)

Quite the turnaround. >60% nino to >60% nina within 3 months. Has such a transition happened that quickly before?

Still a warm signal. Even if only +2 based on older analogs (pre 2016 super nino), one would need to adjust to today’s climate. Like +4 or something like that.