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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    More neg tilt at h5 with precip axis further west from 12z
  2. Terpeast
    Now we just need it to deepen at our latitude
  3. Terpeast
    18z euro trying to phase at 45
  4. Terpeast
    We’re counting on you!
  5. Terpeast
    That would get us to climo for the season
  6. Terpeast
    Eh, more of a hold. Clustering in the same area mostly
  7. Terpeast
    I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance.
  8. Terpeast
    I have a feeling the gfs will hold onto the big storm until tomorrow 12z or even later, then do the most spectacular cave we have ever seen. By that time, the damage will have been done.
  9. Terpeast
    Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself
  10. Terpeast
    Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been.
  11. Terpeast
    (not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models)
  12. Terpeast
  13. Terpeast
    Great news
  14. Terpeast
    Dear god
  15. Terpeast
    Big clue on where this is going.
  16. Terpeast
    I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.
  17. Terpeast
    Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario
  18. Terpeast
    Not a fan of euro for mby but its probably closer to being correct
  19. Terpeast
    Exactly! You’re really getting it. This is why we need blocking to slow down the flow a bit, and La Nina winters are notorious for the northern stream to push the jet streaks too far out resulting in suppression or fish storms (and that NC blizzard). There are exceptions to this like Jan 1996 and 2000, and there’s a small chance that this one could be added to this list. That is, if this whole thing trends west and not the typical east leading up to game time.
  20. Terpeast
    Great analysis! For jet streak placements, I look at 200-300 mb for that. it’s close to a classic double jet streak system where the SLP deepens under the left exit region of the jet streak off the carolinas overlapped with the right rear entrance region of the other jet streak off new england. same with cmc euro, though, isn’t quite a double jet streak - more like one long jet stream rounding the lw trough
  21. Terpeast
    That the models shifted in our favor after that sampling and ingest is a good sign
  22. Terpeast
    Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night
  23. Terpeast
    Wasn’t using wxbell, different algos I guess. Probably the big dogs got knocked off this ensemble set
  24. Terpeast
    Not really for here, but yes for NJ
  25. Terpeast
    I said wait until 12z wed, and here we are. Looks like euro can kicked us to tomorrow or friday
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