Terpeast

I guess it depends on which days. Sometimes what he says makes perfect sense and perfectly summarizes what was nagging in my mind and couldn’t put my finger on it. Other times, I’m like

In case the mods get pissed again about having to move posts - let me provide an easier solution: Simply change the name of this thread. You’re welcome.

That’s where I disagree. Both air AND water are drivers working in tandem, not just air ON water. It’s a two way street. The marine heat wave off Japan is exerting its own influence and a powerful one at that. Zoom in on Japan, you’ll see SSTa off the charts. Take a look, and tell me that isn’t having any effect on the atmospheric pattern.

I don’t think the extreme -pdo is permanent either, but it’s quite the hole to dig out of. Not even a borderline super nino could get us out of that, although it got close but then it collapsed in Feb. We at least did get two SECS in Jan and a minor event in Feb, and that’s got to count for something within a 72-73 analog in a warmer world.

One thing I’ll say about these LR charts is this. As long as we’re in a -PDO driven by the marine heat waves in the west pacific and off Japan, I would place no faith in LR charts no matter how good they may look.

I'm just the messenger. Look at where Fukushima is on Google Maps, and then compare that location against the warmest SST anomalies on those two CFS forecast maps @GaWx above.

The hottest SSTa of the marine heat wave is almost exactly where, and downstream of, Fukushima, the site from where they are dumping radioactive water. I haven’t come across any research that this is the cause, but I can’t seriously believe that this is a mere coincidence.

Yeah, and it has to be on the pacific side. I don’t see how atlantic activity would help. Great article. The last line in this paper opens the possibility for a reversal to an el nino background state once the aerosol effect on enso runs its course (if they’re correct about the cause)

Good question. They aren’t so different in certain domains like ENSO, IO, MC, and even off the US West coast. But in the extra-tropical west pacific they could not be more different. I think part of the answer is that the marine heat wave off Japan is an extreme climatological event that is neither reproducible or predictable by any climate model, let alone any seasonal forecasting models. Find a way to dissipate that marine heat wave, then maybe we have a chance at colder winters again.

Weenie post warning: Well if we go with a 2010-11 analog, maybe that boxing day redux would be a hit for our forum instead of a heartbreaking miss.

I looked 3 pages back to now, and found nothing of substance from your posts except “don’t trust day 15 models” Maybe I missed it, or maybe I didn’t dig deep enough. But if you really want to foster change in this forum in terms of how to do seasonal forecasting, don’t send us digging for that information. We don’t have time for that. Make a standalone thread and link to it instead.

Not good enough for me to get interested. Looks like an elevation event

What were they?

Predominately La Nina pattern

Low of 21

Don’t see anything outside. But it’s cold. The kind of cold that chills you to the bone

You could be right, but its hard to bet against the current pacific state and warm mjo phase dominance since 2018. Maybe high ACE will change that, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Otherwise, persistence is the winning play (and that’s coming from someone who went against persistence for the 23-24 winter outlook)

Let’s see what the west pacific does as far as typhoon season goes. Maybe it will help dent that marine heat wave off Japan.

How confident am I? Low-medium. Just because we have a +pdo doesn’t automatically mean we get colder winters. I see plenty of warm winters that happened during a +pdo. But a +pdo makes it easier to sustain a more classic +pna ridge instead of getting bullied over by constant western troughing.

Either we’ll find out soon once it goes + or the incoming nina will continue the -PDO

Glimmer of hope out in the Pacific? According to WCS, the PDO has been the highest it’s been in years at only -0.20, pretty close to neutral.

Weenie tag me all you want, but I’m just not buying the ACE correlation with eastern winters. If it only works with La Ninas like raindance says, I interpret that as a sign that it doesn’t work at all except mere coincidence. Even some of the classic tele-correlations are not working anymore since about 2018, presumably because of the pacific, which leads me to my next point: Until that marine heat wave off Japan completely dissipates and the Pacific has wholesale changes flipping the PDO to positive, we’re gonna see more of the same in warmer east winters regardless of whether it’s a La Nina or El Nino, or what the Altantic basin decides to do in terms of hurricane activity. Btw @40/70 Benchmark My post was in no way directed at you, I was speaking in general about the ACE correlation. I always read your work and have nothing but respect for what you’ve done.

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last year.

Well, going by this chart, it's been mostly negative since 1998 with brief pos interruptions. Either the cycles are shortening, or we're going to flip to positive within 2-5 years.

Carrying this reply into this thread. The Jan 6-7 event this year is a perfect example of what could have been a 6-12” snowstorm in our area had it not been a couple degrees too warm. A lot of cases we point at may not be clear cut, but this Jan 6-7 one is the most clear cut to me. Unforgivable and inexcusable. After seeing that one fail, I basically threw my snowfall outlook out the window right then and there.