Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Nice! I can see something like this happening if the lows tuck west and throws the ccb further west into nova/81. Let’s see if 18z/0z models start showing this
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That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.
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If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81
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We may well get pummeled with that if lucky. Even if not, euro was a great shift in our favor
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Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility
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The February 22-23 Late Season Miracle: JV Disco/Banter Thread
Terpeast replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
I like your thinking. Historic or even double digit totals were never really in the cards for the DMV and west. It was shown on maybe 1-2 runs mostly on the gfs. The bulls eye was always constantly east/NE of us. -
I’m thinking 3-6” in VA/DMV east of 15 towards I-95, high end if caught under norlun banding.
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I think you’ll do better than me in eastern loudoun unless the ccb comes 20 miles west. You have better elevation (I’m a little over 300 ft) and I could get stuck between the ccb and ivt bands.
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I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band
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So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please
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Definitely still in the game. The heavier daytime precip is, the better. The more precip after 5pm/sunset, the better. Hopefully both west of 95
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Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that.
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I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed
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I’m in. Let’s do this!
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Still plenty of time for another west shift to get the western burbs in the goods! (I can’t sleep…)
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It’s not too late…
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Going to bed, y’all take the euro suite and I better wake up to a tick or two more west!
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It’s the western ridge!
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Love how it backbuilds heavier precip west of 95 even after coastal capture. Don’t think I saw that on previous runs. If correct, sunday night will be fun
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In a colder airmass sure, but with marginal/warmish sfc temps, we need the rates to overcome the BL and accumulate. A full phase is the best way to maximize fgen further west (over us) and cool that column enough to pile up even during the day. Otherwise the first half of the storm will struggle and only when the sun sets will we begin to accumulate.
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Oh!
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Good ol fashioned NAM’ing
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Its close to a full clean phase. One noise level ass hair change away from a big time nuke
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This is what we need to accumulate during the day. Better rates. Weak sauce light precip won’t get us anywhere.
