Terpeast

Op euro doesn’t quite do it, but a step closer to the good camps. We don’t have consensus yet, so probably need to wait until Wednesday for that.

0.63”

Don S posted a link to a good paper discussing the change in storm tracks that had a hand in greatly diminishing snowfall across PA and the northern half of our sub. Worth a read imo. Open question is will arctic amplification contribute to more -AO that might later benefit us?

The delmarva and even points S have done fine, more than fine, during recent winters with the nina base state. Some winters even beat climo down that way. However, the further NW one goes, the worse winters have performed relative to local climos (save for the higher elevs). My winters here have been alright except for 22-23, but still fell short of my 20-22” local climo. Last year I got close. And when you get up to a place like State College, PA, they’ve done dramatically bad relative to their climo. What used to be 50” easily, they’re barely scratching their way to 20”. Like bad. Really bad. I’m just glad I don’t live there now, whereas I used to be envious that they were getting so much snow relative to the DMV.

0.26”. 40

0.14” so far, radar looks uniform

AI gfs agrees on miller b feb 23-24, just a tad north. Something to watch for any favorable trends (if any) in the coming week.

Yea I can def point to better examples for down here than this one today. Not gonna lose sleep over it though - we had decent cold air in dec and jan, that wasn’t the problem, getting an active STJ is/has been.

For your area and north of 70 for sure, but I don’t think even my area would have even been in play with 2-3f cooler temps

Rain at 45. Not even close to “33 and rain”

Earned the right to be snarky for sure, just pointing out that euro ai isn’t gonna be easy to verify

True, I wouldn’t take my chances either

Based on 500mb vort, euro ai is a thread the needle timing play for next weekend. Will have to wait to see more support from other models by Wednesday

Doesnt the spill start more downstream than HP? Thought it was at the C&O canal

Not that it means anything, but I’m holding at 44. Like WxUSAF said I need that free car wash. Bring that half inch qpf on.

Looking at verification, I’d say cansips did well everywhere except enso and tropical atl regions.

For now, I don’t see anything in the LR to get excited about. If winter is over, looking back on the last 4 seasons, only 22-23 was a true dead ratter. In each of the last 3 consecutive seasons, I have had at least 8” of snow depth. Last two winters maintained around 3 weeks of snow cover, which is not half bad considering the persistent -enso/-pdo base state. Let’s see what the next el nino has in store for us. I suspect it will be a milder winter with no prolonged snow cover, but perhaps we could get more of an active STJ and all we need is a well timed wave with some cold air. Not much to ask considering NC got theirs two winters in a row.

WCS agrees with you. Get a couple of WWBs that don’t stall and a moderate el nino with RONI at least +0.8 and we can break the -PDO that’s been plagueing us for years.

Hopefully someday I take my kids there and rent a snowmobile for a snowcation.

Nam 3k thermals did well on Jan 25.

Roughly an inch of slush. I take

If we remember the seasonals’ DJF precip anomaly forecast, it was bone dry and I was thinking “no STJ this winter then?” We’re lucky to get 8-11” frozen from a STJ wave that drove into the OHV.

Unfor for me and my dc metro brethen I think you may be right. Still a chance for a last second overperforming surprise

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook.

It hasn't snowed at all in March since I moved back here in 2022. Ok maybe some snow TV but no accums at all.