Terpeast

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

When you have Detroit and Buffalo in the mid 30s, we know we are in real trouble down here. Again, interior paste-bomb upside doesn't change.

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Thanks to that one storm that defined the entire winter, this season has already outdid many of the winters I remember growing up here.

Low of 9

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens.

And that’s a wrap. Back to regularly scheduled storm tracking

Most boring superbowl I’ve ever watched. Halftime show was the most interesting part and I’m not trolling

Sounds like I didn’t miss much. I’ve pretty much tuned out all the commercials

The temperature part doesn’t surprise me, but the below average precip does

Great halftime show. Helps I know a bit of spanish

Very fragile setup, yes

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation.

Pats have to be glad going into the half down “only” 9-0 with the way the offense has been playing. They need major halftime adjustments. Defense is playing well.

Only first half but Pats are in trouble

I’m going with the Pats!

Legit question. AI EPS has been one of the best models/ensembles in terms of verification at these lead times (one week or more). However, the best practice is to check how the same model has been trending from run to run. Even though the s/w trough on the AI EPS isn’t as sharp as the original EPS, it also has trended the same way as EPS did. The AI models usually smooth things out too much so they don’t do well predicting extremes (or sharpness of trough waves one week out). So my answer would be that both AI and non-AI EPS suites showed similar results for 12z.

Agreed. The duration of cold and snow cover making it feel like a real classic winter as long as we just put our phones down and take it all in. I’d give it a B- at least. But based on vibes and tracking, I feel last winter was more fun.

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass. New run: Old run:

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass. New run: Old run:

12z euro suite says Chuck’s right

Taking it to banter. This winter we’ve had lots of cold and almost no torching. But that made for a frustrating season for tracking storms because we’ve been too dry. Apart from the major winter storm, we’ve had both a sheer lack of minor events and big misses to the south. Last winter was more fun in terms of tracking because we had plenty to track between early Jan and mid Feb (although we didn’t get the happy ending we wanted then). This year we didn’t have as many events to track, and when we did, it was frustrating when we were willing something to happen the way we wanted and got a close miss instead.

Honestly. The idea is good at first, but it gets a bit annoying checking and posting in both threads. Idk what the answer is.

Yes, for once, please.

Big change on gefs. Last run was a cutter in the mean, shifted way south into the TVA for mean slp. new run: old run: