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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    That wasn’t my idea, it was 40/70 benchmark
  2. Terpeast
    Maybe I was right to call out the north trend yesterday. Hopefully the good radar out west means still good qpf totals on the southern edge (which I hate to be in)
  3. Terpeast
    40 now, dropping fast. Dews still 15
  4. Terpeast
    I’m right on the -9 line just inside the southern edge of the band 43/15 and falling
  5. Terpeast
    For me, it's 0.5 vs. 0.3. Big difference. Either way, 3-5" is a reasonable forecast, or 2-4" if being conservative.
  6. Terpeast
    I don't think DC proper reaches freezing at all, but outside of the beltway good chance of that. Either way, if we're lucky enough to get sustained rates for more than two hours, we should be good
  7. Terpeast
    Going by QPF it's 0.45" for both IAD and DCA with a local max of 0.58" near Frederick
  8. Terpeast
    Sfc right at freezing at IAD
  9. Terpeast
    NAM sounding with heaviest precip over IAD. West of 15 and north of 70 stay at or below freezing, though. NAM3k slightly colder based on wet bulb temps
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, sticking with 2-4" for dc/balt, and N/W suburbs will make a run for the high end locally 5". No reason to change my first call despite the north trend (a lot of it is model noise) I-95 and east looks like they'll have temp issues at the onset, but then the rates should overcome that. Then it's only a matter of how long that lasts. N&W will have a longer window of heavy rates with freezing temps allowing for more accumulation I'm at 47 now, but dewpoint is 16
  11. Terpeast
    That's what my wife said. She still doesn't believe it
  12. Terpeast
    Surprised to see the warning get expanded east to include mby. 4-6" forecast. East side of IAD 2-5".
  13. Terpeast
    Besides there's only 12 hours left. Not a whole lot of time left for big shifts
  14. Terpeast
    Yes, this has trended north, but we're still in the game. If I lived 30 miles south of DC, I'd be sweating it though
  15. Terpeast
    They're probably rolling their eyes at us now (and I don't blame them lol)
  16. Terpeast
    That's my wag. I called for 2-4" dc/balt metros and 4-7" far N&W, and don't see any reason to change that. I'd love to get 5" out of this, though!
  17. Terpeast
    Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning.
  18. Terpeast
    High end potential: Low end floor:
  19. Terpeast
    It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago
  20. Terpeast
    Probably mount PSU and places up near the m/d line, and someone around the dc metro may eek out 6”
  21. Terpeast
    Technically a stj-enhanced northern stream wave. A good sign for qpf verifying on the high end of forecast
  22. Terpeast
    My thoughts too. I’m at 37/19
  23. Terpeast
    Temps aren’t the problem north of 66
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah, it’s pretty much noise. 0z ICON is actually similar to 12z
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, that would bring the grade on my snowfall outlook from an F to a D
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