Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor.
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I was holding my laptop when i refreshed the 18z euro and I almost dropped it!
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I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet.
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Looks like 12z gfs was a blip rather than a trend.
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Qpf about the same actually
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Crept north based on MSLP low position
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I was coming here to say this. GEFS didn’t really move apart from noise level changes. Op was probably one of the few members that held the sw back too much.
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We're still up for a model reshuffling probably 12z through 0z tomorrow. GFS is showing that it can still go either way, I just hope it's wrong and it'll cave back again.
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Don't think its any surprise AI GFS would be similar to GFS since its based off the same initial model conditions
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I learned from DT way back when that you don't go against the E/E rule.
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Careful, we don’t want too much too fast. I am 90% sure the storm will come up north anyway. I’m thinking the mix line will reach as far north as EZF/SoMD despite the models saying it’ll stay south of the NC/VA border.
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Actually GFS AI is very similar to op GFS at both 500mb and sfc low positions. It's the precip shield that's a bit different, but I don't trust AI models on precip. I trust them more on 500mb and storm tracks
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I would think the mix line moves north from NC to somewhere across south/central VA into lower delmarva, and the snowfall amounts north of that stay the same or a bit less. Just an educated guess
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I’m up. 200+ new replies. It must be good! Just saw the ens maps - I love where we are sitting right now, and its now <84 hrs where the models are phasing the two streams.
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I’m gonna end this night on a high note and go to sleep.
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On 120, precip shield 100 miles north maybe more
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TT is crashing on me, so many people on it now. It must be good!
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102, almost an open wave
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Sw position trending east over last 3-4 runs
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More energy coming from the back, could open this thing up
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Hr 60, TPV a bit weaker
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Very early but the sw off CA is trending less closed. We’ll see how that goes
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I’m thinking Thursday if california field offices launch their balloons on time as per usual or maybe earlier if noaa sends some flights off the CA coast
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Like I said, it’s rarely that easy. I still think there will be a reshuffling when upper air obs get better sampled as the sw enters the conus
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It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha
