Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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So that’s 4z-12z or 8 hours of snowfall before the flip.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Terpeast replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
When JB posted that, he just guaranteed the bullish gfs scenario isn’t gonna happen. Thanks a lot JB! -
That would be welcome news for S VA if its mostly sleet instead of zr.
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Looks realistic tbh, can’t say I have anything to pick at against
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Minimum 12 hours of snow for DCA before flip, with progressively increasing intensity.
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I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading.
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They may be going with a blend of the Euro and GFS. Which isn't entirely unreasonable, just not something we would run with ourselves.
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I’m right on the navy blue line just NW of IAD, and 7-12” is consistent with what I was thinking.
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10” would be fantastic!
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Also think of it this way… we’re finally getting a classic N&W storm
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If I can beat my 7.6” in last year’s storm, I’m good.
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I think a blend gets us to 6-10" DC metro, 8-12" NW, 12"+ out up in WV panhandle through PA SE of DC 4-8" with lots of sleet, and south of EZF start to see icing (subject to change ofc)
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It was awesome. Started out raining briefly, then flipped hard and the rates - oh man. I stayed up the whole night. Worth the sleep sacrifice.
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We've got another busy week coming up on the heels of this upcoming winter storm!
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Good luck and stay safe/warm. We appreciate your work.
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This is where the mountains help us with CAD.
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I’m hoping for a compromise between gfs and everything else. But i suspect the gfs will cave by tomorrow
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Main takeaway is the NAM puts itself in Euro's camp, even though it trended a touch colder.
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He’s comparing two different models, not two different runs of the same model.
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Looks like the warm nose starts at 700-750, then later 800-850
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If we could coax that high more west and raise SLPs in WV, we could tip the seasaw in favor of the coastal. Even better for us.
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This morning's weeklies went a bit warmer in February, but its cold predictions were too extreme to begin with. Still plenty cold, with a coastal signal around Feb 1 and then again another storm signal just after mid-Feb. March starts with a warm up.
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With the sleet/ice, it will be a much higher impact than a pure 6-12" snowfall and remain that way for a good while due to temps afterward,
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I wonder if euro is overdoing the micro-climates using a resolution that is too coarse for that purpose.
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That one may yield better results for you. Hopefully it'll have a CCB that throws some of that back to us west.
