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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Just looked at gefs, and you’re right on that one. But 12z EPS doesn’t cut and is actually better for us than 0z or 6z. Still sticking with the undercutting the block idea, while 12z gefs links up ridging preventing the s/w from undercutting
  2. Terpeast
    you mean EPS? Or GEFS?
  3. Terpeast
    Yes, a weaker pv supports blocking. It doesn’t have to reverse for blocking to suddenly appear.
  4. Terpeast
    I think that scenario is less likely based on ensembles, they don’t really support the suppressed scenario. Agree timing is vital, 6z Euro AI ensembles show something similar to 0z EPS with undercutting energy under the block but ridge bridging happens immediately after passing us.
  5. Terpeast
    Good call. I’ll start. Focusing on 0z EPS. Next window of interest, s/w running into confluence thanks to 50/50 low: Keeping cold air in place: While area of low pressure stays to the south of us: And precip distribution looks good:
  6. Terpeast
    Incredible how close your numbers have been. You’ll probably beat last year, but I had 16.9” last winter and I’m at 12.8” so far. In 23-24 I had 13.2”
  7. Terpeast
    Max wind gust 41, lowest wind chill -1 It’s not just the numbers, it’s also the duration of this event that makes it stand out. Just took out the trash, and the wind really cuts through your bones. And I’m in a relatively protected area.
  8. Terpeast
    Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs.
  9. Terpeast
    Having the snowpack already in place made it look more of a wintry scene despite so little qpf
  10. Terpeast
    Proud of my home state but I’ve unfortunately been too far north for the best snows apart from Jan 25. One of those winters I guess
  11. Terpeast
    Been years since I’ve had this, but so damn good
  12. Terpeast
    12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” 1/17: 0.3” 1/25: 9.5” (5.5 sn 4.0 ip) 2/6: 0.3” Total: 12.8”
  13. Terpeast
    Overperformed relative to my expectations. 0.3”. Just played outside with my daughter
  14. Terpeast
    Enough to call it 0.1”
  15. Terpeast
    Light snow finally
  16. Terpeast
    Nothing. Band split apart and went around me
  17. Terpeast
    MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.
  18. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar storm track as the Jan 25 one. Not saying same results exactly, but more of a general idea where it tracks towards the TVA/OHV region with gulf moisture feed, and then coastal transfer. Obviously a further south track across TVA then across S VA would yield better results for our backyards.
  19. Terpeast
    And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now.
  20. Terpeast
    Thats been the theme for 6+ months now
  21. Terpeast
    If I wanted to troll the forum, I would post this: Oh wait... (its an op run 10 days away, so don't take it too seriously)
  22. Terpeast
    I wondered the same thing when I saw my temp at 42
  23. Terpeast
    Looks like the follow up is for C/S VA instead of NC... does this trend continue? We'll find out after the commercial
  24. Terpeast
    I'm no expert on the stratosphere, but it looks like it's about to split into two, which promotes more HL blocking?
  25. Terpeast
    Bad news, aigfs is an op model so little confidence in its blizzard scenario. The GOOD news is ensembles (including euro and ai euro) do have some support for that scenario by undercutting a s/w under HL blocking. The ens means is smoothed out, but if you can “read between the lines” you can see a sharper trough or ULL swing across the mid-south towards us from feb 13-16.
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