Terpeast

Flurries

Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0”

That was with a more favorable pacific and +PDO

All ensembles show a mslp track to our north and west, at least at 6z

Hard to predict enso beyond the spring predictability barrier, let alone 2 years from now

I think the Pacific cycle will flip soon, within a few years. Blocking, I’m not so sure because we’re about to enter a descending phase of the solar cycle. But the association between blocking and solar is tenously weak at best, so I could be wrong. And I’ve also observed that NS waves have been more juicy, which gave us a good January and the PA/NJ/NY crowd a great week this week. STJ waves have been too warm because they haven’t been able to sync up with cold air at all. If that changes, though, and we get cold air on our side, and we manage a STJ or phased wave, totals will be truly jawdropping. My wag, though, is that next year won’t be it. Maybe the year after.

Well, that means we still have a chance

So far LWX is leaning on the gfs over the euro, but it’s wide open now given recent model performance

That fgen band was about 50 miles further north and much stronger than modeled. I saw this coming as soon as the dual band structure showed up and the north trend started.

Those were the days. Luckily I have a photographic memory so it remains as real as the crispness of it in my head

I’m tempted to have something to say about that, but after getting called out for being “too depressing”, I’ll just say that I’m soaking it all in right now

Just went sledding with my daughter. Surprisingly good and fast! Happy to have gotten just enough for it and the rest doesn’t really matter

That second January storm was the closest thing to cold smoke imby. Temp never got above 28 if I remember correctly

12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix) 1/15-16: 4.8” 1/19: 5.5” 2/13: 0.7” 2/17: 1.5” Season total: 13.2”

Final depth measurement 1.5”, even though quite a bit has melted since it stopped snowing. Might have gotten 2” of total snowfall, but I went to bed after my first measurement. So, 1.5” goes into my log. Still a beautiful wintry scene, I’ll make a coffee and enjoy it.

Still snowing heavily, everything is covered including pavement. May reach 2” before all done and I can go back to sleep. Looks maybe sleddable

Didn’t take a pic of my measurement, but here’s the deck pic

1.5” and snowing. 32/31.8

Holding at 40, dews still 18-20.

40/23

No more model analyzing from me as per y’all’s request. My final guess for mby - 3” And sending good vibes with this. Good luck!

Can’t deny the trends. I’m hoping for the best just as much as the next guy

I’ma gonna be awake. Wife thinks I’m crazy. I’ll try to be as quiet as I can because I don’t want to wake my daughter.

I do like this euro run, as well as the gfs. The CAMs are showing pretty different outcomes. It’ll all come down to banding, which I think is more likely to set up north near the m/d line

39/18. If I get rug pulled (which is increasingly likely) it won’t be because of temps