Terpeast

Narrator: there’s no rabbit in the hat.

Probably.

I was in Silver Spring and remember that storm well. Got about a foot maybe 13”, most of it overnight. Rates were insane. I stayed awake through the whole thing and went to sleep after it ended. Good times

One glimmer of hope is the GEFS trended back cooler from the last 3 runs or so. Maybe just noise atm

Too late. Towel already thrown. Remember I forecasted a +3 Feb canonical nina to finish the winter. And no, it is not a reverse psychology trick I’m trying to pull on Mother Nature… … … (ok, maybe it is…)

Come back in a year.

Dark times indeed

Enjoy it bro. I was thinking of taking my family up this weekend too, but my kid got sick. Might try again in Feb if we don’t torch so bad.

Just don’t be so sensitive. Ji was just being Ji

Maybe it's time I admit I was wrong about how the warm W atlantic SSTs would affect us. I thought it would create a juicy baroclinic zone that makes any wave go BOOM. Instead it just pops a ridge up top and forces storms to cut. No cold air either, no CAD. Makes me wonder how in the world Ocean City got buried by those 4 bomb cyclones (if I counted correctly) in the last 5 years.

Another way to look at it: Even in bad patterns before, we may have had a SE ridge with cutter tracks, but we still had just enough antecedent cold air to the north so we'd get CAD overrunning 2-4/3-6" events before changeover or dry slot. Now? We don't have the cold air to the north of us. There goes our season padders that used to make "bad" patterns "not so bad" in the snowfall department.

She’s better. Still running a temp but not as dramatic. Bit fussy but otherwise seems to be getting back to normal. Thank you for the kind words.

I’m on team snow-is-snow-no-matter-when. Latest GEFS confirmed my can-kick/headfake suspicions. EPS not that bad but may be trending that way. If the GEFS is right and we go into a nina Feb, it’s lights out. March redemption perhaps, but wouldn’t hold my breath.

Chicken vs egg. Cutters pump warm air ahead of it, warms the waters, creates a ridge, which forces storms to cut… positivr feedback loop. It would take a lot to break it.

Was considering a family chase to either Blackwater or Snowshow this weekend, but now we are a no go. 2 year old daughter sprung a 103 fever. Going to call the doctor soon. At this moment, snow or lack thereof has zero significance.

Any observations out of Davis WV and thereabouts? How’s the snowpack? Thinking of taking my family up to Blackwater or Snowshoe this weekend.

I didn't have to go through any previous pages on this thread to know that we're dealing with (yet another) headfake and/or can kick. This winter blows.

24, heavy frost. Seems we had a good radiational cooling night.

I’ve been seeing these advertised pattern changes starting around Jan 23 on the big 3 models. Question is: - Will it stick? Or get can kicked - Is it real? Or another head fake - Will we get enough cold air far enough east? Doesn’t have to be arctic, just cold enough The nina appears to be weakening. In December it was 0.9-1.0, and now it is 0.7-0.8. Maybe we get to cold enso neutral by Feb? That would be good in that the pac jet retracts just enough to give us a pattern that might work. Or it would be bad that this nina weakening may alter IOD forcing to give us a warm Feb (as I predicted in my winter outlook). It could go either way, or both ways in the same month. March, as always, is a wildcard.

Cloudy 29. Almost looks like it’s gonna snow

Remember, the most likely outcome is rain then fropa. Until at least 3 models show something different for 3 consecutive runs, then maybe...

worth noting major slp differences in SE canada from run to run

Yeah, strange. I saw that, and decided it was kooky enough of a solution to ignore.

I think it’s picking up the same vort lobe as euro and cmc, but while these two phase under us, in the gfs they just miss each other and the secondary low goes OTS. Really fluky solutions all around just when we thought they locked into an ordinary fropa. Don’t get excited though. The simplest answer will most often turn out to be correct. Which in this case is fropa and nothing else.

Well, this comes one day after I said I'll be content with 3" that covers the grass. But not like THIS!