Kmlwx

The ARW and NMMs have both been super paltry on sim reflectivity for multiple runs now. There was really only one long range HRRR run and one NAM nest run that got good storms into the area. Meh.

There's the marginal risk for tomorrow on the 1730z update.

Long range 6z HRRR looked pretty good, actually lol.

LOTS of thunder with this stuff. Long, rolling stuff too. Not bad for a day I expected to yield nothing.

Predator satiation theory as well. Fascinating - albeit kind of creepy looking creatures.

Something can always sneak up on us (just like snow in winter) but nothing "big" is showing up at this point. CIPS extended analogs don't show any signal for our region either. Late April is probably what we are looking at for now - or even early May. That's not atypical either. La Plata 2002 wasn't until late April. Still early for us.

GFS is pretty lackluster on parameters. We'll see.

2007 had the major glacier sleetbomb. That was VDay 2007.

Huge swath of the country is lit up on the extended CIPS analogs from last night's 0z runs for the 168hr timeframe.

Looks like we'll be waiting longer for a legit threat. CIPS isn't enthused on anything really on the extended analogs. Something could sneak up, of course.

NWS wasn't kidding when they said "low topped" and "shallow" - echo tops are completely unimpressive.

The watch probs are very low.

I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now.

We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain.

Looks like LWX is going with the huge polygons for warnings this PM.