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About Kmlwx
- Birthday 09/14/1991
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDCA
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Colesville, MD
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Interests
Meteorology, Packers, local crime news
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Well one thing is you can have a hard freeze or two and then have 20 degree plus departures and the averages will look like the freezes never happened.
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Every few runs of the GFS at least have had a storm system near the fantasy range/end of run that could be a severe producer for our area. Way too far out but has shown up a few times in varying forms.
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We usually flag April as "it's still too early" - but it does come with the benefit of having some really potent systems sometimes before we head into the more summery "doldrum" patterns. It seems we always have a bit of a "butter zone" in spring and fall when CAPE is healthy enough for more than just pencil thin lines of gusty showers - but with higher shear than you'd see in July.
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I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point.
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I had not been checking the thread - I thought for sure I would be out after the little snow event. Goes to show you weather is a lot of guesswork...my entry was a total shot in the dark.
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The wind was really rocking last night for a time but it seemed mostly synoptic wind in nature rather than specifically associated with that line of showers. Hopefully before too long we start tracking spring severe!
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That HRRR map shows the localized DC bow very well. #derecho
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Line segment between Rosedale and Clay in WV looks nice!
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SPC playing catchup. It's June 29, 2012!!!
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Tracking *something* (even a pencil thin squall) would be fun and a welcome break from the winter crap-tracking. Obviously it's early for anything super beefy - but stranger things have happened. I personally think one reason severe tracking is a bit more "civil" and "tame" than the winter stuff is other than my stupid CIPS posting, we really don't look much beyond 8 days (from the D4-8 outlook) for severe. Save for a major signal, like 95% of our severe threat windows pop up within 7 days - and often more like inside 5 days. We aren't pattern hunting for weeks looking for a hint of severe. Add in that you can get a rogue pulse storm that wipes out 1000 trees and sneaky stuff is all around. Not looking forward to bugs and heat...but I sure as heck am ready to end the boredom of tracking nothing.
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Is there ducting going on?
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Not to mention their ideas can generally be found elsewhere on the interwebs as well! I just hope we don't drop into a months long doldrum of boring weather. I can deal with little stretches of beautiful weather...but prolonged stretches get BORING. Hopefully we get some nasty freezes late season to cut down on the mosquito populations
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It just never fails
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Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012
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Done