Kmlwx
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About Kmlwx
- Currently Viewing Forum: Mid Atlantic
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- Birthday 09/14/1991
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Parameters continue to look pretty impressive. But sim radar is pretty weak sauce for us on most models (even the better ones @high risk ) mentioned. Still think it could go either way. I want to get excited but that's always a losing strategy around here. On the plus side - it does look pretty certain that we'll see a good bit of sun tomorrow...that's one of the factors we sometimes don't have (often).
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Unfortunately my presence would guarantee no storms within 25 miles.
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Can I come watch a wedge pass by from Mappyville?
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Let's recklessly go chasing up US15.
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12z NAM nest has almost nothing unless you're in extreme NE Maryland. Meh.
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They certainly seemed to be before. The last year or so though they seem far more conservative a lot of times.
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Maybe we can pull a miracle and keep the warm front JUST to our north. As Ian says - playing with the warm front is not usually a bad thing.
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Almost seems like the trigger just isn't strong enough to get things going until you're in the area you mentioned well north. Pretty much all of our severe days have some aspect of "bust" written all over them. I"m still half in and half out - there hasn't really been any run so far that's brought widespread severe into our area. So I think coverage will be an obvious issue for us.
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06z NAM seems to have a bit of an issue with timing. Would love if it sped up just a bit.
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Yeah 06z NAM nest has the parameters still but does the DC/Baltimore split it seems. Lame.
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Comical...I picked a sounding in our area from the NAM nest at 22z on Thursday and it has a SARS match from DDC (95052300.DDC) with a 6in hail result. Still a TON of hail results showing up from SARS...interestingly enough - there have been some IAD ones showing up in the matches. FWIW (not much at this range) the sim reflectivity on the 3km NAM doesn't look all that impressive. I'm half in and half out.
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I was pretty meh on it except for just keeping an eye on it up until today. Enough consistently good SARS returns and such to at least keep my eye on it. And having @high risk be interested is enough for me to stay partially in. If nothing else - the one big thing you always rightfully say is lacking (lapse rates) might be better this go around. I think the biggest "meh" right now is that it looks focused to our north. I'd feel pretty good if I was along a line running from like Pittsburgh to @mappy perhaps. Though I think the risk is there for some places to get a really nice cell or two. I think odds are pretty good of one of those days where one or two cells put down really large hail in isolated spots but the area at large doesn't see a widespread event. There are a few example of perhaps what could transpire in the Washington Weather Book IIRC - I loved that book in grade school.
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Posted for those who don't want to go digging for it -
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@high risk I suspect if @Eskimo Joe pops in here he might be more enthusiastic than he normally would be. He's generally pretty down on lapse rates in our parts unless we get an EML or something to advect in. Obviously he might find a reason to deb...but he'll be an interesting "weather vane" - let's crack out the WW007 severe weather scale!
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Posting the SREF at range below - not for the specific map type - but because it outlines the best risk area really well (and as such the area outlined in SLGT right now for D3).
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