Kmlwx

Bullish Yoda-style

I put odds of impacts other than a slight breeze and a shower to our area at like 1% for the time being.

LOL @ the NAVGEM

Wow that Euro run just kills it pretty quickly lol.

at the CMC

Would think our forecasts of Jose will be quite muddy at least until he completes the loop.

That that left curve would take us out of any significant excitement.

Looks like OTS might be gaining a few ensemble members.

06z GFS track verbatim is probably a bit too far west of us for us to jump for joy at exciting impacts. We'd probably get some "interesting" weather but we'd ideally like it much closer.

Weird how there's decent spread in the middle of the track and somehow the spread shrinks later on that map. Maybe Bob Chill is right about the GEFS being screwed up.

A pass to the east has the potential to be quite lame for us unless it's quite close. I was young for Floyd but I remember getting off of school for it and there was a lot of rain. I like how DCTeacherman thinks above

Indeed. Looks like that cluster of tracks would extrapolate to pretty good impacts for us.

A path west of Florida by no means rules out sig impacts for us. If a tropical system cuts up and goes west of us we'll likely have rain and a tornado threat if it passes even marginally close and we are on the right side. If you are looking for pure tropical or a direct overhead pass I think odds are low on any given storm. Consider Ivan. It was a gulf storm and yet one of the more exciting tropical systems in my memory around these parts.

I don't think anybody along the eastern seaboard is out. It's still quite a ways out in time.

People are absurd. Meteorologists get the forecast wrong. GET OVER IT - that's the way of the business. If idiots are going to be that dumb then good luck to them when they are floating on their rooftops in the Atlantic. People who make those kinds of statements are the worst. I'd rather evacuate unnecessarily than the opposite any day. Back on topic here - I'm not even sure how much Irma would weaken over FL. It's so swampy that you'd definitely get a bit of the brown ocean effect.