Kmlwx

Suspect there will be a rogue cell or two. But my hopes are pretty low.

Getting some limited sunshine here now. Could help uncap things.

Pretty gloomy here at the moment...

Will be interesting to see if the HRRR is out to lunch or onto something. 00z NAM will be interesting to see as well to see if it aligns with those thoughts at all.

They made a bit of a comeback today - more audible in the trees in the Silver Spring area. But nowhere near as loud as before. There were a lot of almost dead ones falling out of the trees today too - and then struggling to fly.

The 12z GFS has a really nice looking cluster coming through tomorrow around peak heating. It's tough to evaluate how exactly it goes down with the 3 or 6 hour panels. It seems to be on its own right now - would love to see that trend similarly on the CAMs - most look snoozy for now.

That is the absolute story of our severe chances here in the Mid-Atlantic - I'm obviously still watching...but think it's more of just with a one toe in for right now. Tuesday is wayyyy too far out to do any higher end analysis on at this point. The superstitious part of me is happy we are still only at a marginal for tomorrow - we do better when SPC increases last minute lol

Many of the CAMs look pretty lame for Saturday. We'll have to wait and see what the trends look like as we get close. LWX is still honking about Tuesday's potential.

12z NAM (at range, of course) puts the best parameter space to our north up in PA for Saturday. Again, still early - and will be interesting to see where the target shifts around.

Oh I didn't think you were lol

The 12km NAM does show a decent amount of sunshine for Saturday morning. But the GFS says no. I agree - it's too early. I'm out mostly for now.

Glad the whole idea of them staying strong until early July wasn't the case. They were cool for a bit - and then quickly became annoying.

Peaceful quiet here in the Silver Spring area as well. Thinking the heavy rain the other night may have been enough to really thin the herd - and they were already past peak anyway.

It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that.

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win.