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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Mixed bag on the models. NAM nest seemed to like Friday
  2. Kmlwx
    Yeah pretty much a non-event (but got some rain) here in Colesville. I'm not super enthused about tomorrow as well.
  3. Kmlwx
    Beneficial rain in Colesville. A touch of thunder but that's it (so far)
  4. Kmlwx
    Also an uptick in lightning near Barnesville, MD ETA - radar presentation loops LEWP-esque
  5. Kmlwx
    The 12z NAM nest earlier seemed to want to blow a huge line through at like 2am. Not seeing that on other models. I think this line is the only show - especially if we are overturned.
  6. Kmlwx
    Outflow evident on radar now
  7. Kmlwx
    The western part of the line near Bedford, PA has some of the highest echo tops and plenty of lightning. Could be a good sign for those a bit more on the fringe. Also, guidance has had runs where it had the stuff going almost south or even southwest a bit.
  8. Kmlwx
    The trajectory looks great especially for the north and eastern quarter/half of the area. But it does seem like there is a tendency to build convection on the western side of the complex. We'll have to see how the intensity trends as it gets closer but for now that line/bow looks fierce.
  9. Kmlwx
    The CAMs are really all over the place (seems to be a common theme this year). I could technically see chunks of the area getting skunked through the whole week...The game of weather lottery!
  10. Kmlwx
    It sounds like it will be a process - but lack of budget/funding and retiring faculty. It's very unfortunate!
  11. Kmlwx
    Also related but only partially - and apologies if already posted. Saint Louis University is sunsetting their meteorology program and discontinuing CIPS on their site. But Mizzou has agreed to start hosting it - the new link to CIPS is here --> https://analog.missouri.edu/
  12. Kmlwx
    SPC discusses potential/conditional need for CIG1 and higher probabilities for D2 depending on timing and such.
  13. Kmlwx
    Though I will also say both the NAM and the GFS keep favoring areas to our north and east...hopefully it can bleed south.
  14. Kmlwx
    That NAM run also suggests the EML plume (at least somewhat) will be in play.
  15. Kmlwx
    Quoting myself but now settled in at the office... My hunch is that ONE of the day performs for many of us - whether it's divided up into 2 days remains to be seen. But even with what @vortex95 said - I think most of us would be skeptical of seeing consecutive days impact the exact same areas. Perhaps the first day hits the M/D line counties more and skunks the rest of us, then perhaps the next day is more of the metro area(s), then a bit too far south for the bulk of the subforum the following day.
  16. Kmlwx
    I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.
  17. Kmlwx
    Close enough for extended period!
  18. Kmlwx
    Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance.
  19. Kmlwx
    Plenty of lightning right on top of that signature as well.
  20. Kmlwx
  21. Kmlwx
    Maybe a downburst signature right around North Potomac or a hair NE of there? Probably sub-severe at least at this second but seems to be intensifying
  22. Kmlwx
    Maybe trying to cycle back up a bit - doubt it will get back to as intense as it was - but more lightning near Gaithersburg on the last update.
  23. Kmlwx
    Taking forever to come south and east
  24. Kmlwx
    Watching that Frederick/Montgomery cell for me (in Colesville tonight). Might miss me to the north but it does seem to be having a tendency to come south.
  25. Kmlwx
    Two things that can work in our favor for severe weather later in the season are more robust mid-latitude systems producing better dynamics and of course tropical systems. I am pretty doubtful we'll get tropical impacts this year - but certainly the first factor could play into it. September 24, 2001 comes to mind as a clear cut example of fall severe events here. Get a robust shortwave or closed H5 low and weird things can happen. Even as late as November we can get a super dynamic system (the type where the storms come up form the SW to the NE instead of NW to SE and give us brief spin ups and damaging wind along a squall line. ETA: And don't forget those weird January/February events we've seemingly seen a few of over the past decade or so where we get a random slight or enhanced to cover some weird cold season dynamic event.
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