Kmlwx

Friendly reminder the models are on zulu time.

What if the models beyond 48 hours only showed H5 panels. Would sure cut down on the snow map weenies.

It's Ian's famous corn fumes.

Yeah isn't it the unpertubed (same initial conditions as the OP) but run at the resolution the pertubed ensemble members are run at?

Outage numbers for PEPCO are pretty low so far. Though it could just be a slow refresh of the map.

30.7 now in Colesville. Appears to be raining lightly out there. Definitely getting slick on surfaces I shoveled earlier.

29 degrees now. The temp rise has been quite impressive.

Temp is really rising now - up to 26.1 it looks like.

Looks like 2.25" as the pingers started here. Compaction will really start now.

Was out shoveling the driveway and heard pingers here in Colesville.

Around 1.25" so far here in Colesville, MD. VERY pretty outside with cold fluff. 24.4 degrees for the temp and 17.4 for the dewpoint. So they are closing in on each other now. Expecting pingers in the next while here.

H5 low is showing in North Central GA per mesoanalysis - we'll see where it goes.

Mesoanalysis has the lowest pressure in extreme NE Tennessee.

Venturing a guess - but once the surface winds shift and change from being what they currently are (NE or NNE) - the temps may start to respond fairly soon after that.

Many stations still have winds out of the NE or NNE - temps should be good for now.

Another thing to consider is folks can be using different color tables depending on what radar or program you are using and the source. I have a special "snow" color table that Ian sent me a while back - so where I see obvious returns may not show the same as other folks. Regardless - my original point to he/she stands - the precip does start pretty soon after returns pick up in intensity.

You are also farther from the radar. So the beam is showing you a slice that's higher up in the air versus folks closer to the radar.

Give it a few mins. It starts almost as soon as a couple shades of returns are overhead.

Snowing very lightly here in Colesville, MD. 24.3 air temp and 8.4 dewpt

Has done this as long as I can remember in winter events.

Given what this storm did from it's trek from the long range to the medium range - I'd rather have that for now.

Probably not even close to being large enough for long term impacts. We'll see if it keeps spewing SO2 but it takes a lot to do anything to climate.

This progression should remind everyone that the models out in the D7+ range are only rough guides of what *may* happen. This thing has become a completely different situation from a day or two ago. Hand wringing over longer range models should be limited to the general H5 pattern at most. Still time to get some adjustments for this one - but not looking great at the moment. It's the business. ETA: I know everyone always likes to say "we all know this" - but a lot of you all still seem to take long range modeling as if it's guaranteeing you snow. We've all gotta start to take the @Bob Chill - approach and just try to care less. It's a bummer when we miss but just take the wins and then the losses will be losses.

With satellite sampling the argument for the data sparse regions is not as substantial as some make it out to be. Obviously, we'd rather have RAOBs - but satellites do a really good job of sampling in the holes between sample sites. Would argue that GOES and POES do way more to improve forecasts than adding one or two RAOB sites.