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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Completely agree - the obvious answer here is that as repeated MCS activity rolls through - it pushes the overall boundary a little further south each time. Thus - the "train tracks" are more south vs yesterday. I think it CAN happen - usually MCSs on the SAME DAY suffer from this more - but it's definitely a factor even next day. I think what to watch for is if something to our SW can REALLY get going - perhaps it can throw off a cold pool just east enough to get some development on the "bookend" NW side.
  2. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is pretty much nada now as well.
  3. Kmlwx
    The 13z SPC D1 outlook update still keeps us on the outside looking in. 15% well SW of the metro areas.
  4. Kmlwx
    I'm not sure I inherently "trust" any of the CAMs in setups like this. Even looking at all of them and taking an "average" can be off. I do think the HRRR (probably due to the fact that it's hourly) does tend to eventually latch onto something close to reality - but even then it can have times where it's sim reflectivity for 2 hours in the future doesn't even match reality. But yes - we shall see! Wouldn't be surprised if literally nothing happens locally today - but also wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent swath of 50-65mph wind across a good bit of the area.
  5. Kmlwx
    The 09z RRFS sweeps some activity through the area around 2-3z. The CAMs are a mixed bag today (same as yesterday). Some completely skunk most of the area while others sweep some stuff through. "We just can't know"
  6. Kmlwx
    Some breaks in the clouds to the west on visible sat. Devil's advocate arguments here could be the usual "the crapvection might lay down boundaries" or sometimes the preceding rainfall can help us stay moist rather than mixing to lower dews. I still think failure is a very high potential today - but my eyes are still open (for now).
  7. Kmlwx
    The NAM seems to insist that the big activity later will stay back in SPC's outlooked area and even more more S or even SW. The HRRR differs in that it spawns activity in addition to that stuff and sweeps it through later on. I actually can easily see a scenario where the HRRR is right - depends on if the stuff that forms can cold pool and such (similar to yesterday). Let's go from a 5% to a moderate
  8. Kmlwx
    And going by the SPC outlook - we are PRIMED for an SPC "catch up" day - all kidding. But days like today CAN surprise.
  9. Kmlwx
    The 3km NAM skunks us. The HRRR is more robust.
  10. Kmlwx
    The white "barriers" at Gringos and Mariachi's in Potomac blew over (and a chair went into the middle of Park Potomac Ave). Pretty good storm. Hoping the commute isn't too bad by the time I head east around 5:30. For tomorrow/Wed the models and SPC want to favor SW of us...but as we saw today - the models waffled a lot. So I think a lot of us remain in the game.
  11. Kmlwx
    Some useful terms for everyone to remember: MCC = Mesoscale Convective Complex (a specific type of MCS) MCS = Mesoscale Convective System (of which a derecho is one type of MCS). Derecho = a very intense MCS with damaging wind (long track and wide swath)
  12. Kmlwx
    be tough to bust at this point (famous last words)
  13. Kmlwx
    Updated Day 2 looks angled too far south for many of us. But these things can be VERY finicky to predict (case in point - June 2012). And if you watch the June 29, 2012 radar loop, that sort of was angled more SE but drove east for us.
  14. Kmlwx
    Everything "feels" juiced today. At least for heavy rain. Was driving from Odenton back to my folk's house in Colesville and it started lightly raining and I wasn't even under any returns on the LWX radar.
  15. Kmlwx
    The GFS seems to be pretty insistent that something might pop and at least get close to the CONUS before a recurve.
  16. Kmlwx
    The GFS has been pretty insistent something develops and heads at least in the general direction of the CONUS. We'll see.
  17. Kmlwx
    Stats are funny/cool. One thing I've always considered is that on some potential severe weather days, the CIPS guidance will often have a locally higher "bullseye" of probabilities roughly centered over the DC area. I do not think that is necessarily purely authentic. Since it is correlated to storm reports in the analogs it finds, it is reasonable to assume that it will highlight areas where there are more storm reports in an analog....and of course, a heavily populated urban area is going to have a higher concentration on a comparable severe event that happens over a rural area.
  18. Kmlwx
    Looking at the ensembles and other guidance, I do think if the overall 500mb pattern is true...we might get a shot at more NW flow-style severe events beyond the first week of August. While not perfect matches, I do see an similar angle to the 500mb flow from some of our notable severe events from the past.
  19. Kmlwx
    Meanwhile all the PEPCO hate from the 2000s and 2010s has largely faded. Their tree trimming program and preventive maintenance has been absurd the past 10 years or so. An event like yesterday in the earlier 2000s could have easily have 250K+ customers without power in the region.
  20. Kmlwx
    Looking ahead, the various AI guidance is pretty darn quiet (quieter than I've seen in a while) for the next 8+ days. Beyond that, we'll see. I know we have some heat lovers...but I personally am glad we are at least beyond the peak climo heat period in the area.
  21. Kmlwx
    Yeah I just saw that on PulsePoint! Power outage counts from BGE are surprisingly tame given that wind. Looks like some wires down on Patuxent Rd down near Woodwardville as well.
  22. Kmlwx
    Heck yeah it was! Those winds were impressive. And then the area of rotation went right over us! You have any damage? I don't see any from the windows but the power was flickering a ton. I wonder how the Waugh Chapel Substation fared.
  23. Kmlwx
    There might be something trying to form near Ashton/Cloverly in MoCo. Seems like a bow trying to get a notch.
  24. Kmlwx
    The terminal radars are going to be very useful as always during this. We are VERY spoiled by having this sort of radar coverage in our region. TDCA has an intense wind signature showing up in MoCo just N of Gaithersburg. It might be trying to form a little "notch" too.
  25. Kmlwx
    That always shows up during precipitation/storms
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