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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Quoting myself but now settled in at the office... My hunch is that ONE of the day performs for many of us - whether it's divided up into 2 days remains to be seen. But even with what @vortex95 said - I think most of us would be skeptical of seeing consecutive days impact the exact same areas. Perhaps the first day hits the M/D line counties more and skunks the rest of us, then perhaps the next day is more of the metro area(s), then a bit too far south for the bulk of the subforum the following day.
  2. Kmlwx
    I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.
  3. Kmlwx
    Close enough for extended period!
  4. Kmlwx
    Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance.
  5. Kmlwx
    Plenty of lightning right on top of that signature as well.
  6. Kmlwx
  7. Kmlwx
    Maybe a downburst signature right around North Potomac or a hair NE of there? Probably sub-severe at least at this second but seems to be intensifying
  8. Kmlwx
    Maybe trying to cycle back up a bit - doubt it will get back to as intense as it was - but more lightning near Gaithersburg on the last update.
  9. Kmlwx
    Taking forever to come south and east
  10. Kmlwx
    Watching that Frederick/Montgomery cell for me (in Colesville tonight). Might miss me to the north but it does seem to be having a tendency to come south.
  11. Kmlwx
    Two things that can work in our favor for severe weather later in the season are more robust mid-latitude systems producing better dynamics and of course tropical systems. I am pretty doubtful we'll get tropical impacts this year - but certainly the first factor could play into it. September 24, 2001 comes to mind as a clear cut example of fall severe events here. Get a robust shortwave or closed H5 low and weird things can happen. Even as late as November we can get a super dynamic system (the type where the storms come up form the SW to the NE instead of NW to SE and give us brief spin ups and damaging wind along a squall line. ETA: And don't forget those weird January/February events we've seemingly seen a few of over the past decade or so where we get a random slight or enhanced to cover some weird cold season dynamic event.
  12. Kmlwx
    That sure looks like a supercell for Loudoun
  13. Kmlwx
    Qdoba > Chipotle
  14. Kmlwx
    Crapvection around now
  15. Kmlwx
    Not saying this hasn't been the case in prior years - but this year seemingly has been significant in terms of distance between CAM solutions even up to the morning of events.
  16. Kmlwx
    The pattern continues as well with me being in the office tomorrow...always.
  17. Kmlwx
    NAM nest sends pretty robust UH tracks over the area tomorrow.
  18. Kmlwx
    So far this is matching HRRR that did show that "bow" but if you looked at the wind gust product on those runs - there was almost no severe wind with it.
  19. Kmlwx
    Good demonstration of how more resolution is not always automatically "better." There's probably a "happy medium" where errors can be smoothed while still having good resolution...but I imagine if we had like 0.25km resolution models it would be chaotic at best. Until better computing comes along I guess.
  20. Kmlwx
    The RRFS looked pretty good too. I feel like it has tended to be very bullish on convection this season.
  21. Kmlwx
    Cloudy and dreary is the theme today (so far). Not seeing much clearing potential on visible sat either. But we'll see if we can get robust convection later with dewpoints being high.
  22. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday.
  23. Kmlwx
    Sunday still looks like it has a chance. Maybe next Thursday too?
  24. Kmlwx
    Sunday has a chance according to CSU
  25. Kmlwx
    It's worse to our west (like WV). At least some sunshine has rebounded CAPE above 1000 in the metros seemingly. But still probably isn't going to do much. WV is devoid completely of CAPE
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