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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I guess we DO have weird squabbles outside of winter........sad.
  2. Kmlwx
    What in the world is going on in here...? @JenkinsJinkies - Take this stuff to banter. It is pretty obvious to see reading through this thread as an uninvolved third-party who is/was the aggressor. We are all here for the enjoyment of weather. Calm down and just take the L. It's okay to have a difference of opinion - it's how you act that matters. Quit while you're ahead - you're flirting with child-like temper tantrum territory... Nobody wants to open this thread to you having some weird argument in public. Get a room.
  3. Kmlwx
    Seems MUCH better at time of this post (a little after 8am ET on Saturday). But wonder if once the site gets more traffic it will return.
  4. Kmlwx
    Last few days or a week or so - have been seeing pretty frequent Cloudflare "Bad Gateway" 502 errors from the forum. Generally a refresh of the page loads it (albeit slowly). Anything going on?
  5. Kmlwx
    CIPS has (for domains near/over us) June 4, 2008 and June 13, 2013 showing up for hour 60.
  6. Kmlwx
    We will have to see exactly where the ride/heat dome sets up. If it's too far east, stuff will miss us to the north I call likelihood. Too far west and stuff may have a tendency to miss south. Also important is how steep H5 is. Lots of variables.
  7. Kmlwx
    It's overall a very messy looking radar so far.
  8. Kmlwx
    Warned storm approaching Luray looks semi-interesting on velocity.
  9. Kmlwx
    The cell near Moorefield, WV intensified relatively quickly. We'll see how things trend the next 1-2 hours.
  10. Kmlwx
    The watch has been issued.
  11. Kmlwx
    Yeah CAMs have been *relatively* consistent with pushing some sort of loose cluster of storms through the DC area.
  12. Kmlwx
    The 12z CSU MLP update re-increased the 5% area for TOR and also inched the 30% wind closer to MBY.
  13. Kmlwx
    No changes really on the 13z SPC outlook.
  14. Kmlwx
    Good amount of sun on the way to work this morning.
  15. Kmlwx
    FWIW - the 12z CSU MLP maps have reduced quite a bit.
  16. Kmlwx
    I've heard (usually from @high risk ) that the HRRR tends to overmix out low level moisture - could that be a factor here?
  17. Kmlwx
    I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows! Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).
  18. Kmlwx
    The CAMs (to varying degrees) all have decent amounts of storm coverage too - unlike some of the prior events recently.
  19. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP page agrees with an area of 5% TOR
  20. Kmlwx
    I don't expect anything - more just saying under the right conditions it could lay a boundary down or moisten us better.
  21. Kmlwx
    Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later.
  22. Kmlwx
    This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early.
  23. Kmlwx
    Pretty robust stuff for the time of day.
  24. Kmlwx
    I wonder if that's a factor of the larger nature of tropical systems and them being more susceptible to the larger scale upper-level pattern(s). With severe, so much is dependent on much smaller scale factors that are below the "resolution" of a broad AI model that might just look at the overall pattern.
  25. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21
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