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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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The "dryslot" seems to have some activity popping in it now.
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LSR indicates a funnel cloud was spotted north of Holy Cross Hospital. Anybody have a link to that? I haven't been able to find it.
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At some point with all the messy radar look - we probably will get overturned and most stuff will just be a heavy rain threat.
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The cell for me has pretty broad rotation - nothing indicating tornado as it went over me - but lots of rain for sure. Radar looks....active....to say the least. Don't think we are done yet.
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Pouring with no visibility of the structure right now unfortunately. But it looks nice on radar for sure. Somebody maybe east of me perhaps near like Fort Meade might have better luck.
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Now a TOR warning for me.
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Some rotation over me on radar.
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Messy radar
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Well seems our weenie handbook "SPC playing catch-up" checkbox could also be getting checked
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You know it's at least somewhat intriguing when @andyhb pops into the Mid-Atlantic forum. And as always, thanks for your insight/thoughts!
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WPC frontal analysis assesses that the front is north of many of us but as a stationary front.
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Sunshine? - Check Shear? - Present-ish CAPE? - Present-ish MLLR? - Nope. @Eskimo Joe - Thoughts?
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On the CoD model page - many models showed decent clearing/sunshine this morning at least when I looked at them yesterday.
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I'm mostly ready to "meh" this in MBY. Seems like one of those days when south of the area gets hammered, though.
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Sends a UH swath right through Charles County.....
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CSU doesn't like the threat...but CIPS is honking nicely.
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It's been pretty uneventful this year in our area in the severe department. I might have to stop using the WxWatcher007 blanket....it might actually be a curse.
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The 0z HRRR is pretty much a dud the rest of the night.
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Mesoanalysis show a minimum of CAPE over most of the region. I just wonder if between the MLLR to the west potentially advecting in, and any "recovery" from any other processes overnight could sustain convection into our area. But judging my CAPE alone - it seems we are cooked for surface based activity. Perhaps the MLLR and better forcing and maybe if there's a cold pool fro the activity to the west could sustain covection. Lots of question marks.
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Seems like a mixture of both.
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HRRR fires storms in the 3am timeframe.
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It honestly might miss MBY to the north - but yes it looks fierce!
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Torrential rain with the MoCo cell that just went through. Nothing noteworthy otherwise. Thinking that if the next line holds up and doens't run out of gas it will be more intense.
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The northern cell is still the more intense one it seems like. We'll see how this goes once they get some distance between each other.
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Definitely not as intense but it definitely is a clean split now on radar!
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