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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Good skies in Colesville for the moment...
  2. Kmlwx
    It's the NAM at range...and the 12k at that...but it has a formidable line of activity well to our west Thur evening. But the timing appears to suck. We'd need that to either speed up a bit or slow down by a day (to bump into Friday) to maximize potential. As it stands, still think this ends up as a typical "too early" even that *could* have been bigger.
  3. Kmlwx
    I see there's some tomatoes eclipsing your breakfast there. Annular eclipse of the breakfast.
  4. Kmlwx
    CIPS is more muted now but still a signal. The few beefy events it had have dropped down lower in the list. I think between timing issues and still early season this will be marginal at best for us. Still... Dynamic systems haven't shut off so if atmospheric memory exists it could still hint at an active late April/May.
  5. Kmlwx
    Yeah but at least it would be a trip to Italy and a cruise. Plus... The boat can adjust course to hopefully better setup the day of.
  6. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance was honking pretty hard for the last panel (hr 132). One or two beefy events in there (including Apr 2011)
  7. Kmlwx
    I just canceled my Keene, NH hotel reservation (had that as a "launching point" for a possible Maine trek). Based on distance and people commenting about poor road options in rural Maine...just not worth it. I still have a Binghamton, NY hotel reservation that's cancelable until midnight tonight...but that precip and cloudiness is precarious. I'm getting close to just risking it and using my solar filter/telescope to observe this one from MBY in Maryland and then saving up/booking an Italy-->Greece eclipse cruise for 2027. Also...there's some homeland security warnings about eclipse gatherings being soft targets for potential malicious actors...don't doubt it with local law enforcement dealing with crowds swelling to many times normal amounts. It sucks having this cut through places not too far from here but it being logistically very tough. I missed totality in 2017 by about 8 miles...I vowed to not let this happen this time but it might be less stressful (but much pricier) to plan internationally for 2026/27). I wish we all had the money and means to go chase every eclipse...
  8. Kmlwx
    https://www.amazon.com/DIBBATU-Disposable-Emergency-Portable-Suitable/dp/B0B9XN7KXW/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=3BNP45XCJJR3S&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.h9JwSZ9bAyWD0hMLpqi9658XqwuArEGMhHzjnezpJBRVf1PaX5V9CnZwmxgVGXJTw2N--I5dhW54xpeWkw3IZeiG656Udy_eE0inyMlY-ZSx8CJgg7uqUbYtWCIpglhM5lcYkGRKukgJWyz5CM9NtUwnyQtavi94-5t7HnBCQzjYsgOLr-9t8w3ERH5lsBckU1LF__p4xjuX2Pwi6buhj5RL9TrbrurMJhux5nnBkYDcuiAfIU-uN5SDJjh5pCogGwtzfhgz2lYOwtXqPi6oyt5-PRitNS-mPrp-jsI5tWk.A0AFhTsQQRFiGpe_7b8uiNOfZqU38XZyM7hnDc2sgB4&dib_tag=se&keywords=urine+bags&qid=1712261474&sprefix=urine+bags%2Caps%2C105&sr=8-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1
  9. Kmlwx
    It still matters for observing the eclipse (even without totality). But yes it won't get dark like totality will.
  10. Kmlwx
    This. But I think I see where he's coming from - at least there's a family connection. But yeah...if you are at 99.9 even - might as well just stay home and watch it with 80-90 percent totality through a solar filtered telescope or glasses. But he's seeing family so I see the approach.
  11. Kmlwx
    I bought little sleeves that you can pee into and it absorbs. Now if there's a #2 situation....outta luck. I bet most public bathrooms in the totality path are going to be overcrowded and disgusting.
  12. Kmlwx
    Stream gauge near here level out right around 6ft on the dot. But expect it could begin rising again as the precip from the SW arrives. Ground is WATERLOGGED here - lots of standing water in areas that normally absorb relatively fine.
  13. Kmlwx
    Getting near 6ft on the stream gauge near me. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=clam2 Good rise today so far.
  14. Kmlwx
    MUCAPE is on the rise per mesoanalysis...even if SBCAPE remains nada.
  15. Kmlwx
    Does not look like it will be long lasting. Small patch of clearing in VA and then back to clouds it looks like
  16. Kmlwx
    I'm interested to see if we keep getting dynamic systems into alter April and May. That could aid in increasing severe potential for our area.
  17. Kmlwx
    Could also be late if they are devoting most of their attention to active severe threat(s) today.
  18. Kmlwx
    UH swath on it weakens considerably as it approaches too - that could hint that it is weakening at the time.
  19. Kmlwx
    If there's a thin or high cloud deck - that might be okay. Obviously clear is best - but supposedly with a thinner or higher deck there can be some pretty cool effects...
  20. Kmlwx
    I've mostly written off both days for MBY - hoping for the unicorn of elevated storms with some hail. HRRR looked pretty good honestly...but we know how that goes. Hoping for some better push of the warm air. But yes - it does't look great for DC northward.
  21. Kmlwx
    And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path
  22. Kmlwx
    Maine almost looks like a solid bet on the latest GFS
  23. Kmlwx
    Wish I had been wrong but thanks everyone and especially to @RodneyS for putting on the contest! Let's hope we all get a blockbuster winter at some point.
  24. Kmlwx
    I wills say - I know some of it is just weather superstition...but what Bob Chill says in winter applies sometimes in summer too. We tend to go on "heaters" of severe. A beefy event just to our west could be a harbinger of things to come. Maybe...And nobody come at me for "hoping" for destruction...I'm not. Weather gonna weather.
  25. Kmlwx
    The modeling is pretty much unanimous on us being wedged. Even NoVA doesn't look like it escapes the wedge for the most part. Will be keeping an eye on the elevated threat I guess!
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