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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run.
  2. Kmlwx
    It's only a 20% MCD *but* I love when I make a statement that SPC and WxUSAF agree with! I must be learning! Mesoscale Discussion 0381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032031Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area, low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm development across eastern Kentucky. The storms are expected to continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have limited destabilization. With low-level flow (and attendant warm advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat for the convection to persist. Given the sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be unlikely at this time. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
  3. Kmlwx
    My PWS is showing a 68.9 dewpoint YUCK!
  4. Kmlwx
    I could go out in a flaming dumpster fire - but the TOR warned cell in extreme SW WV is what I am watching despite the modeling focusing north of us. If that can sustain despite the guidance, and perhaps get enhancement from the proximity of the boundary - that could be for us later.
  5. Kmlwx
    The various models seem to kill that activity entering WV - but I could see a scenario in which they are overplaying the death of that complex, and in reality that stuff rejuvenates off the higher terrain to give us a cluster. Would not be the first time the modeling developed a "new" cluster that ended up being actual remnants or an existing cluster.
  6. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to suggest that *IF* there is a chance - it's going to be between 0z and 3z in a little cluster that comes through. It seems to be weakening as it comes through on the latest run - but while it is well west of the area it has some decent UH tracks.
  7. Kmlwx
    While MLLR aren't "good" - they also aren't as paltry as some of our other events.
  8. Kmlwx
    Slight risk removed.
  9. Kmlwx
    15z HRRR sends a nice cluster through after 0z. Funny because HRRR tends to undergo storms (at least previously when it would have dews too low)
  10. Kmlwx
    PWS is reporting 66.4 on the temp and 65.8 on the dew point. Pretty saturated surface airmass! And soupy for this time of year! Other than storm fuel - really not looking forward to 70+ dew point season.
  11. Kmlwx
    CAPE inching upward in a little "tongue" where the front may have cleared. Nearly touching Southern Maryland.
  12. Kmlwx
    It's seems like one of those weird conditional severe days where coverage is low, and who knows if we'll even see any storms pop during peak time - but if one goes up it could really dominate even if isolated.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm pretty close to calling you out as a meteorology AI robot. You always have superb explanations and insight. We're watching you though....robot.
  14. Kmlwx
    It was pretty darn misty and damp out there this morning on the way to work. I'm closer to meh-ing than I am to "woo storms-ing" lol
  15. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP for today
  16. Kmlwx
    Goes north of me but that HRRR run looks pretty good for storms.
  17. Kmlwx
    18z NAM and NAM nest continue with the theme of no initiation/storms for Thur. Parameters look a bit worse than prior runs as well. Still worth watching.
  18. Kmlwx
    12z CSU MLP maps
  19. Kmlwx
    And my excuse of "it's still early in the season" gets less relevant each passing day. By April, we often have much better thermodynamic profiles - though May/June would be even better. Though that admittedly won't solve mid-level lapse rates! I will say - yesterday ahead of the storms did feel juicier than the prior few events this year so far. So we are "getting there" in terms of better dew points and temps. One thing I do like is that we haven't had a shortage of "chances" this year so far. While there has sometimes been a week+ between risks, there's been a pretty steady stream of at least potential systems showing up. Thursday has my interest at least for now.
  20. Kmlwx
    NAM and NAM nest seem better with parameters for Thursday now - but sim reflectivity doesn't really have any initiation at least on the panels I've seen (through 0z Fri).
  21. Kmlwx
    TBWI shows outflow moving out ahead of the storms.
  22. Kmlwx
    One nice thing is that the Warn on Forecast domain includes us. More model runs to wring our hands over!!!
  23. Kmlwx
    Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings.
  24. Kmlwx
    1730z D2 is out. Not many changes.
  25. Kmlwx
    Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS.
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