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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    HRRR is focusing the most intense activity south of the Potomac. NAM nest looks better for MBY...and all that to say it's still probably elevated stuff.
  2. Kmlwx
    I saw some breaks in the clouds on the way into work this morning.
  3. Kmlwx
    Me either - I mean I do think we will see some sort of elevated thunderstorm activity moving through (probably after dark) but severe risk remains to be seen. Waste of an EML if it plays out like that.
  4. Kmlwx
    Great writeup as always! One thing I'm noticing is the past few HRRR runs (the ones that go out far enough) have been shifting south with the elevated activity. I'm interested to see if that continues.
  5. Kmlwx
    I think the most excitement would come from us getting to the warmer/more moist side of guidance AND perhaps the storms arriving a bit earlier than currently forecast. This would offset both the waning daytime heating and overall potential for lacking instability. Even elevated convection can be fun, though. This will be an interesting test of the @Eskimo Joe theory that having good MLLR/remnant EML impacts can offset other less favorable factors. Of course, it's not an ace to just have the EML...but we haven't had one in ages.
  6. Kmlwx
    Wow yeah the 6z HRRR looked ferocious on sim reflectivity. We'll see...
  7. Kmlwx
    Not for us (well to our west) but the D4 outlook from SPC. There's an EML plume - shame there isn't better moisture return or warmer temps ahead of it. ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat.
  8. Kmlwx
    The 12z GFS looks similar. It's a shame because the GFS is forecasting VERY steep mid-level lapse rates - just the boundary is too close to use. However, sometimes something strong can ride the front. It's worth watching simply because there's not much else on the horizon for now. I do think that some place nearby (probably just to the SW) could be primed for some sort of isolated severe day.
  9. Kmlwx
    Reaching here...but Monday would have some small potential if the boundary can get north of us. Doesn't look like it happens on the 6z GFS. But instability is not far away. Dewpoints look pretty meager as well. There's some hint of this potential on the CSU MLP maps as well as the NCAR AI page.
  10. Kmlwx
    oh good lord the worst typo ever
  11. Kmlwx
    CFS monthly over on TropicalTidbits shows a ridge west of the center of the country and neutral heights near us for June. I was looking for signs of any potential "ring of fire" pattern - but I'd think that map would put the ridge axis way too far west for that. Though - we'd avoid big HEAT if that were to come true. Then in the July panel it pushes the ridge axis even farther west...not giving it much though - but that would really keep the summer from getting into the baking oven style heat locally.... With the heavy smoothing on super long range progs like that, though - I'd extrapolate that there would be some severe potential whenever transient ridging gives way to an incoming shortwave/storm system. So while it might not be a 2012 derecho-style pattern....it could be a setup for a weekly squall line/front.
  12. Kmlwx
    I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing.
  13. Kmlwx
    At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket.
  14. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run.
  15. Kmlwx
    It's only a 20% MCD *but* I love when I make a statement that SPC and WxUSAF agree with! I must be learning! Mesoscale Discussion 0381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032031Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area, low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm development across eastern Kentucky. The storms are expected to continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have limited destabilization. With low-level flow (and attendant warm advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat for the convection to persist. Given the sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be unlikely at this time. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
  16. Kmlwx
    My PWS is showing a 68.9 dewpoint YUCK!
  17. Kmlwx
    I could go out in a flaming dumpster fire - but the TOR warned cell in extreme SW WV is what I am watching despite the modeling focusing north of us. If that can sustain despite the guidance, and perhaps get enhancement from the proximity of the boundary - that could be for us later.
  18. Kmlwx
    The various models seem to kill that activity entering WV - but I could see a scenario in which they are overplaying the death of that complex, and in reality that stuff rejuvenates off the higher terrain to give us a cluster. Would not be the first time the modeling developed a "new" cluster that ended up being actual remnants or an existing cluster.
  19. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to suggest that *IF* there is a chance - it's going to be between 0z and 3z in a little cluster that comes through. It seems to be weakening as it comes through on the latest run - but while it is well west of the area it has some decent UH tracks.
  20. Kmlwx
    While MLLR aren't "good" - they also aren't as paltry as some of our other events.
  21. Kmlwx
    Slight risk removed.
  22. Kmlwx
    15z HRRR sends a nice cluster through after 0z. Funny because HRRR tends to undergo storms (at least previously when it would have dews too low)
  23. Kmlwx
    PWS is reporting 66.4 on the temp and 65.8 on the dew point. Pretty saturated surface airmass! And soupy for this time of year! Other than storm fuel - really not looking forward to 70+ dew point season.
  24. Kmlwx
    CAPE inching upward in a little "tongue" where the front may have cleared. Nearly touching Southern Maryland.
  25. Kmlwx
    It's seems like one of those weird conditional severe days where coverage is low, and who knows if we'll even see any storms pop during peak time - but if one goes up it could really dominate even if isolated.
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