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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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    Reisterstown, MD

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  1. The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of?
  2. Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire.
  3. Dry air. Wife was riding her horse last night in Skyesville and remarked how it got so cold so fast.
  4. Couple of thoughts: 1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. 2.) It's December, and it's La Nina. These are two hostile background environments for us. Folks need to realize this won't be a 2009-2010 December and be happy with what we get. 3.) Climo say that 7% of winters here feature a White Christmas. I honestly believe that a bit of patience will yield us a higher than normal chance of a White Christmas this year.
  5. Ji had one of his worst meltdowns. Others followed him over the cliff.
  6. There were meltdowns during 2009-2010.
  7. 2nd interesting thing will be when we start to get in the range of the meso models in a few days. Maybe the GFS resolution is "too big" still?
  8. GFS OP is on an island. This is going to be an interesting test for winter. Does the GFS score a coup, or does it run too hot?
  9. Was 23 when I left Reisterstown. Was 31 in Montgomery County. The Urban Heat Island is a death knell for snow here anymore.
  10. Yea it looks like a marginal event is a legit possibility.
  11. Don't sleep on the Dec 9 to 11 timeframe. You all stand a semi-decent shot for some light wintry weather.
  12. Down to 25 already. Temp fell 7 degrees in the past hour alone. MOS guidance way too warm for tonight.
  13. Yes. IMO, D3 - 5 look at mid levels, D5 and beyond, look upstairs.
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