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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Yea the EPS and OP GFS is MCS/ climo for sure. Would be nice to bake for a few days, this summer has been too cold, but hey, maybe that's a sign we're gonna have some good blocking setting up this winter?
  2. That actually happens a lot in these parts. In Taneytown the other month 4 acres of cut grass caught on fire because of spontaneous combustion while it lay drying in the field.
  3. We have solid lapse rates, shear and instability. Even the mid level lapse rates aren't terrible and that's a chronic thing we have going against us in these parts. Don't think it's going to be a lot of aerial coverage, but those who get a storm could get clocked pretty well.
  4. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html I'm kinda of interested about the potential today. EDIT: This has Delmarva jackpot written all over it.
  5. You can see the smoke drifting down over Pittsburgh. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  6. This weather really sucks. We have all winter to be in the 70s, was hoping for some big heat this summer.
  7. Decent microburts signature near Laytonsville and another just SW of Travilah/Gaithersburg.
  8. Filling in at Sykesville Fire Department today and we have a decent cell firing off to the west of us.
  9. Heat index of 101 in the shade per the home weather station.
  10. Ug, no unless it means storms.
  11. This is not hot weather. No big heat advisories, etc. locally.
  12. Eating hot pot in Ellicott City and storms are blowing up to my west. You're welcome.
  13. SPC mesoanalysis shows a good bit of MLCAPE, low level lapse rates and maybe event a hint of a lee trough. Shear and mid level lapse rates are pretty terrible thought so the conditional wet microburst looks to be about it for today's risk.
  14. It's a whole other climo up there. Love it.
  15. Might see a TOR for the Berkeley Springs, WV area. Southernmost cell is looking kinda kidney bean shaped and velocity isnt terrible.
  16. For those of your running a home installation of GR radar, here is a great placefile from CIMMS that works to show near real time probability of a storm pushing severe limits: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE Screenshot of it in action:
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