Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Low end warning event on a weekend. Where do I sign?
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Feb 2007?
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With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.
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Yup. Cold powder. [Insert "The Good Ones Are Sniffed Out Early" Here]
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12z Canadian also has the banana high the GFS had. Good to see that feature on multiple models.
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Very well said. You mentioned something last year that really hit home to me. There are times when we have a workable, or even favorable pattern for snow and we miss out due to bad luck, etc. That's upsetting, but fine. Then you have the years where it's Pacific Puke™ all winter and nothing can save us. Those are heart wrenching. It appears that we are set up for success over the next month and it's all down to luck. That's fine, we just want to be in the game.
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Everyone wins with the 1/18 event on the 12z GFS. No rain/snow line. A solid, plowable snowfall on a holiday weekend.
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HR216-222 on the 12z GFS has a solid banana high and decent western ridge at 500mb. Key ingredients for cold air. Very happy to see this.
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Looks like the GFS/Euro try to get the MJO into Phase 7/8 border by 1/20, then hold it in 8 through mid February.
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Wow congrats Carolinas. Their snow drought has been worse than ours of late.
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Yup. Keep your expectations low everyone.
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If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.
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EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign. EDIT: Yes, I know this is for TN, if it's showing a favorable pattern to our south, then we're in a position to score here.
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Oh I like that graph.
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Not only has the west coast ridge trended sharper on the EPC, it's also trended stronger. Good to see.
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I like this trend on the Euro
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From a WPC met:
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That post is incorrect.
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Excellent
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100% probably one of the better model suites of the winter thus far. Bottom line: there's potential next week, but no one should be spiking the ball. I fully expect swings with each run, hoping to at least see a trend at 18z where things are still there.
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CFS is quite chilly for February
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They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?
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A key ingredient for any legitimate snowstorm in these parts.
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Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.
