Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Same.
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I think you get 3" of snow from this.
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12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line.
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That thing is the Lucy of CAMs. Always the warmest, driest model it seems.
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It's a solid run for sure.
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3:30 pm was when Mt. Holly would push their products. You always wanted to see the crawl on the lower third go "...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE GREATER DELAWARE VALLEY..." Pure magic.
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Wild Guess: NWS just modified the winter weather advisory for DC and I-95 south. Wonder if they're going warnings for Carroll, NW Baltimore, and NW Harford?
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Can't wait to see the mesonet snow depth maps for this one. Really excited for this event.
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Even better when you can loop their old Christmas play lists: https://twcclassics.com/audio/playlists-christmas-2009.html
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Real weenies know to play old TWC music from good winters of yore while watching models come in. It's the real magic.
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Great post from @wxmvpete
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Wonder if the advisory gets bumped west to Frederick County?
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12z NAM would imply that BWI, DCA, and IAD get to 100% of their December snowfall climo.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z NAM/HRRR would imply a solid 4" - 6" for York, Lancaster, and Lebanon counties. Might be a last minute victory here folks. -
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This is a great write up by Tomer Burg on what the HRRR may be sniffing out
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Uh:
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Uh yea, no duh.
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It's 12/8/13 all over again.
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Yes it is. It's a real shame this event doesn't have even another 0.1" - 0.25" liquid to work with. We're really on the cusp of a respectable event here.
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Based off the 12z Euro and 18z GFS, it would not surprise me to see Mt. Holly hoist a watch for their zones on Maryland's eastern shore into Delaware and S. Jersey.
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Yes. We've had it bad in this subforum, but the eastern shore and south jersey has effectively been on weenie suicide warning for almost a decade.
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The LWX AFD effectively highlights the strong dynamics at work. It would not surprise me to see someone between Baltimore and Philly/S Jersey get half a foot of snow from this.
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Sterling alluded to a "low end warning event" in their late morning AFD update?
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Those were absolutely rotten winters. Even the snowstorm that followed in January 2016 couldn't save the 2015-2016 winter.
