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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. 18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.
  2. Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.
  3. 12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.
  4. Thank you for the clarification! I've seen more AFDs reference "WPC AI guidance" and was getting concerned it was becoming just plug and chug computer nonsense in the Mid and long range.
  5. IIRC, any forecast beyond D3 now is straight AI/auto generated with minimal input from forecasters. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
  6. Another big plume coming down from Canada. Western PA and Ohio back to Code Orange.
  7. There still is some suspended smoke on satellite.
  8. Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.
  9. What would have been needed for more robust, widespread severe given that profile?
  10. ^Liz Leitman issuing that outlook. She's an incredible forecaster.
  11. With a raging east based El Nino? Don't hold your breath
  12. Gust to 31 mph, M1.17" rainfall Frederick City mesonet site at the Community College.
  13. Storms along the Frederick/Montgomery County line fading. Looks like an outflow boundary pushing south along I-270.
  14. Storm just blowing up near Thurmont. Zero to wheeee in like 3 frames.
  15. Frederick/Montgomery County going to be swapped from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to a Tornado Watch
  16. Wow, 55,000 ft tops on the warned storm just south of Charles Town!
  17. Yup. We'll see that severe thunderstorm watch in the next 20 min I reckon.
  18. While everyone is focused on the severe weather risk, we've busted into Heat Advisory criteria south of I-70. Some places pushing 110s for heat index.
  19. Their meadow tea is amazing.
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