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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Biggest tornado outbreak in this region.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.- 1,688 replies
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Thank you for the clarification! I've seen more AFDs reference "WPC AI guidance" and was getting concerned it was becoming just plug and chug computer nonsense in the Mid and long range.
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IIRC, any forecast beyond D3 now is straight AI/auto generated with minimal input from forecasters. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.- 1,688 replies
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Another big plume coming down from Canada. Western PA and Ohio back to Code Orange.
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There still is some suspended smoke on satellite.
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Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
What would have been needed for more robust, widespread severe given that profile?- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
^Liz Leitman issuing that outlook. She's an incredible forecaster.- 1,688 replies
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With a raging east based El Nino? Don't hold your breath
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thankfully the tornado risk isn't playing out.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Something's bound to pop on that.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gust to 31 mph, M1.17" rainfall Frederick City mesonet site at the Community College.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Storms along the Frederick/Montgomery County line fading. Looks like an outflow boundary pushing south along I-270.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Storm just blowing up near Thurmont. Zero to wheeee in like 3 frames.- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Frederick/Montgomery County going to be swapped from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to a Tornado Watch- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wow, 55,000 ft tops on the warned storm just south of Charles Town!- 1,688 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yup. We'll see that severe thunderstorm watch in the next 20 min I reckon.- 1,688 replies
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While everyone is focused on the severe weather risk, we've busted into Heat Advisory criteria south of I-70. Some places pushing 110s for heat index.
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Their meadow tea is amazing.
