Eskimo Joe

That storm gives me PTSD.

Yes. Jan 26, 2011 was the best example of how we "win" with a marginal airmass. A rapidly strengthening storm that flips to frozen precip as nightfall occurs. Of course, that storm was at the end of January with a lower sun angle and occurred during a more climo favored time of the year.

Razor close for so many on the 12z Euro. We're talking a difference of two degrees either way means huge boom or bust potential. Smart money is to bank on things being warmer than forecast at the surface. 9/10 times, if we're relying on precipitation rates to dynamically cool the atmosphere we're going to lose.

12z Euro is incrementally better upstairs, but the surface is just torched.

Yes that's a good position and strength.

This has al the markings of an event where there's 2" - 4" of snow on the roads, but 10" on the power lines and trees.

You can almost feel everyone holding their breath for the Euro.

GFS 10:1 map would be a disaster for the power crews.

I'll take the 00z Euro in a skinny minute. Off to bed. We live to fight another day.

Curious what the 00z GFS-AI has. anybody got details?

I'm going to hang around for the Euro AI.

Man if the Euro comes in with even 6" - 10" this would be insane.

HR 72 is just sick. It's pure weenie porn. Wow.

HR66 on the 00z GFS has a pretty sick death back right over DC to Annapolis. Legit vertical velocities at 700mb. Someone is gonna get the goods it this keeps up for another 24 hrs.

This is going to happen. I finally have a weekend where I'm not on call at work, and my wife just surprised me with the last tickets to the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King in Frederick Sunday evening. I've never seen this in theaters and it's the last showing in the entire state.

This is paste falling at night with wind. Enjoy no power. Oh man.

Could you imagine if the 00z suite comes in even a bit better?

Yes. To be a fly on the wall at LWX and WPC right now.

18z Euro at HR 84 is borderline F O L K S

That falls at dusk into nightfall. . . .

What's going on is far worse than is being reported in the traditional media. Every day it's a struggle to just sustain and maintain the current status.

I am going to use as neutral of language as possible - there is a systematic, and gleeful dismantling of the atmospheric science infrastructure ongoing at the Federal level. Operationally, the National Weather Service lost many positions at key field offices. A short-lived Federal agency that shall remain nameless listed the building that houses the SPC/NSSL for sale. It took direct involvement from Congress to stop this. The National Science Foundation has been cut to ribbons The National Center for Atmospheric Research's very existence is now being threatened. These changes are likely to stay in place for at least the next two years. Even if there was a dramatic shift in Federal policy starting in 2028, you cannot easily rebuild back to what we had prior to 2024 overnight. These cuts are worse than physical buildings, or personnel positions - the loss of institutional trust is enormous and is cumulative. Meanwhile, our international competitors will continue to lap the country. We are simply headed in the wrong direction and fast.

Putting this in banter, but it's going to be very difficult if not impossible to see sensible, sustained improvements in American NWP for the next decade or so. The current Federal climate is extremely hostile to meteorology and earth science right now. Both operational and research efforts across the country are being gleefully decimated. Meanwhile, the Euro-AI is schooling us on a weekly basis. This is the end result of years of doing lots of little things consistently well across the pond.

Falling at night with still reasonably cold ground. Oh man.

RIP, regional power grid. This would be a legit disaster.