Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Euro has started to advertise some weak coastal trying to pop in the past couple of runs. Something to keep and eye on.
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ICON is a legitimate disaster for ice and sleet accumulations across the Carolinas and deep south. Wow.
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EZF to RIC to SBY is going to get their snow climo in a week. Wow. What a way to break a snow drought.
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06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.
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NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.
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With so many events, we tend to see the 06z guidance waffle or dry up. With the 06z Euro et al beefing up, it's a great sign. We're almost at the point where a "fail" would only be 4" - 8".
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E/E rule!
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Saw a couple questions about blizzard potential. We'd need a coastal to rapidly deepen as it pulls away. None of the guidance currently suggests that, so it looks like that is off the table with this event. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster. -
That's a prime setup for us to win big time.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models. -
Oh wow that's classic for a KU event in these parts.
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What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini.
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It's the PTSD talking. I get it.
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It was great. No complaints.
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Good catch. Euro may be trying to do that thing where it slows the storm down but it's longer in length and that allows everyone to win.
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Yup. Numerous members now have double digit hits regionwide.
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We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.
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I'm excited about a 4"-8" event.
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It's clipping data on this site because of Delaware and Chesapeake bays.
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IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.
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Reminds me of a certain storm 30 years ago
