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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. You matched the Parkton mesonet site snow depth perfectly!
  2. BWI with thundersnow at 5am: METAR-KBWI 140946Z 29003KT 1/2SM R15R/4500V5500FT TSSN FG FEW004 OVC010CB 00/00 A2994 RMK AO2 PLE24 TSB26 OCNL LTGCC NE TS NE MOV SE P0005 T00000000
  3. Do I spy a Howard County deathband coming for @WxUSAF?
  4. Oh man this band looks stationary for a bit. Time to pile up!
  5. Temp down to 34°. Snow accumulating on everything now. So wonderful.
  6. Looks like the lead band is getting juiced up in the last few frames of the radar.
  7. Rates have picked up in Reisterstown. Accumulating on the deck, cars, and non paved surfaces.
  8. Based off the latest SPC meso analysis, the best cold air advection at 925/850 mb appears to be cresting the I68/I-70 interchange in western MD. Might wave to wait for that to get a bit closer before we see temps really fall off. Seems like everything is on track.
  9. Happened to me. Bumped up to 38 degrees, now down to 36. Seems like there might be some weird warm layer close to the surface? Westminster and Parkton mesonet sites dipped below 32° so it can't be too far off.
  10. Latest AFD from LWX: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 907 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An Arctic front bring a blast of snow and bitter cold temperatures to the area late tonight into Sunday. Accumulating snow will push into the mountains this afternoon before spreading east later this evening and into the overnight hours. Gusty winds behind the front will lead to plunging temperatures with wind chills values expected in the teens and single digits late Sunday afternoon. Arctic high pressure settles over the region Monday before shifting offshore Tuesday. This will yield a pattern change with warming temperatures heading into the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... No major changes to the previous forecast. Added western Loudoun to the Winter Weather Advisory earlier this evening. This is a banding type set up with favorable conditions for CSI banding. Given that, some areas will overperform and some will underperform, just the nature of banding. Snow has been the p-type observed at onset across most of MD thus far. Further south, rain may mix in at onset. Currently evaluating guidance to see if any potential extensions are necessary in the advisory further south into Prince William or Fredericksburg. Just not enough confidence at this time. Also, areas in NE MD near the PA State Line may approach warning criteria. Just something to keep an eye on.
  11. Looking to our west, Pittsburgh upped snowfall totals along the MD/PA line. Seems like this system is rather energetic, and I would argue it bodes well for us later on tonight.
  12. According to my records, since moving back to Maryland in August of 2016, I haven't experienced a December snowfall greater than 3.4", or an overall snowfall of greater than 4.8". Let's see what happens tonight!
  13. RH spike to ~90% on all the Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore and Howard County mesonet sites. Precip is probably punching down to the surface.
  14. Based off mesonet data, the wet bulb temp is 32/33 degrees for everyone west of I-95. It won't take much to bump this down below more once things get started. It looks like we might waste very little, if anything at all, on getting all frozen.
  15. If it's a reload period with a definitive end period, that's fine. We all get worried when things just go zonal for weeks on end.
  16. In Union Bridge already? That's great honestly. Very happy to see things going right to frozen once precip starts.
  17. Ceilometer from McMillan Reservoir in DC showing a steady decrease in cloud heights. Precip is definitely starting to work towards the ground everywhere. https://ucn.cas.hamptonu.edu/viewer/?ceilometer=9&date=2025-12-14&minaltitude=0&maxaltitude=6200&minbackscatter=10&maxbackscatter=100000&colorscheme=turbo&log_z=1&min_time=0&max_time=60&filtermonths=0
  18. Good to see it starting as all snow. Appears to be a bit of a warm pocket in the Frederick Valley.
  19. Winter Weather Advisory extended to western Loudoun County
  20. Agreed. Unlike other events, we have cold ground at night, and there's a fresh press of legit continental polar air coming in. The Bittinger mesonet site is already down to 27°, and the Frostburg site is down to 28°.
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