Eskimo Joe
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Trough has progressed further west each run, and this is not isolated to the GFS. The Euro, Euro AI, EPS, and UKMET all have this in some fashion. It certainly looks like most of the Delaware Valley could be falling into a light to potentially moderate weekend snowfall. -
Going to be very interested in the GEFS. If the snowfall mean ticks up, then we might be onto something here.
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What rule is this?
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Yes to the 12z GFS. Everyone wins east of I-81.
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Snow on the GA/FL border...this is gonna be close?
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Agreed.
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00z Euro dumped an legit ice box on most of the US towards the end of January. If we can manage any snow cover, it wouldn't surprise me to see some days with highs in the lower to mid 20s.
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Decent trend on the EPS overnight at 00z and 06z. For the Sunday event. Looks like 40% chance of an inch of snow from I-95 east. 00z/06z Euro-AI also bumped the odds of light snow up too. Trough is further west.
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Pretty wild that coastal Georgia will see more snow than us at this rate.
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You are not wrong in this assessment. We truly have been in a terrible slump and there's no end in sight unfortunately. It reaffirms my notion that without a favorable Pacific, our snow odds are likely killed in the cradle.
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It's insane how hostile this region is to snow.
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HR276 on the 18z GFS op is hilarious. Snow from northern tip of Georgia all the way up to Maine.
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50" for Pittsburgh...rofl
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That's a shame honestly. If the trough axis was focus over the Ohio Valley, we'd have the door open for disturbances to shoot up the coast. At least it's cold. There's nothing worse than 55 and sunny in winter.
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If we can't score one legit event, 6"+, be Feb 5th then I think our season is cooked.
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Another high in the 50s during what should be the coldest time of the year.
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Fair point. Moderate, west based El Nino.
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Clarksville
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Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.
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Classic La Nina.
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Yessss
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I think we're at the point where that's all we'll get. It will take a significant alignment to get a warning level snowfall, and that'll be it for the winter. Just like 2016 - statistically it was an above average snowfall winter, but winter only lasted 5 days.
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Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.
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Death knell for widespread snow
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Trigger Warning: I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Formerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain.
