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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Let's be honest for a moment, a lot of managers and "senior leaders" are excited about AI because it means less staff. Focusing on weather, the only advantage I've seen from the AI models so far is they come out faster. I haven't seen any meaningful performance in accuracy beyond D3 as a customer of the weather enterprise. That includes the private sector and government. I've been in a few private sector test groups with AI guidance for "perfect long range forecasting", and the verification scores beyond D7 are laughable. I don't need a 15 day forecast, I just need 95% confidence out 72 hours!
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Let's enjoy summer first.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    So far this appears to be shaping up to be a warm summer, but it doesn't look like one of the good old fashioned hot ones.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Eh, this is a slight risk day. It's not like we were staring down a D3 MOD risk with a CIG2 hatch 60% or something that fizzled.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    I've been in a few NOAA/NHC/FEMA webinars recently where the speakers have made observations where the AI guidance appears to not overhype, but rather really juice up convection in the warm sector. It's entirely possible these AI models need more events in their knowledge base before they can beat the traditional NWP. Just my observation. Others are welcome to chime in.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.
  8. Eskimo Joe
  9. Eskimo Joe
    I'm kind of in the same boat as you. Still, we've seen what marginal surface instability and good dynamics can do in these parts.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    SPC maintains the 15% for D4 (Thursday) and mentions the usual fail potential alleys: clouds, timing, etc. That being said, any time you get a decent jet just to our north and a reasonably hot/humid airmass...interesting things can happen.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yea definitely looks like a tornado somewhere between Libertytown and New Windsor:
  12. Eskimo Joe
    That cell in Libertytown/Walkersville appears to have been legit. Some reports of structure damage. . .maybe a tornado?
  13. Eskimo Joe
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting radar signature just NW of Sykesville, MD
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Constant lightning just to my west in Reisterstown. Cats army crawled down to the basement.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Impressive LSR out of Grafton, WV for that western line "Sustained 35 mph for 5 minutes with gusts to 62 mph."
  17. Eskimo Joe
    There's gotta be something nearby. That cell in York County went nuts in like 3 frames.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting little cell near Walkersville in Frederick County.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Atmosphere isn't overturned between I-81 and I-95 and there's a couple of boundaries floating around. Might be in store for at least some elevated convection?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Some cells firing up along the western slopes of Catoctin Mts.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    M1.25" hail Ripley, MD according to the LSR just reported by Sterling!
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Two areas of interest locally: 1.) Bay press pressed up somewhere between US 29 and I-95 west of the bay. 2.) Looks like a decent outflow boundary settling along I-66. Wonder if these serve as a focus for later in the evening?
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Surprised there isn't a downstream tornado watch for at least northern PA.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Hahaha Yinzer Alley go brrrrr
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