Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Early on, but to me the big thing seems to be how this ridge out west is handled, too far east and this thing swings out to sea. This is not a comment on a specific model, just an overall observation.
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For the next day or two I would lean more weight towards the ensembles, both AI and traditional. If we start seeing a better clustering for the coastal low, and perhaps it climbing the seaboard more, then it's likely game on.
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I mean, a fail could be that it hit the Carolinas and misses it.
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We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.
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Every storm has trended northwest this winter. We're about to go inside D5 with this thing. Almost game on.
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Looking out west, there's a good ridge building in which should help to keep this thing from cutting too far west.
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ICON is a hit
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06z Euro AI-EPS has a mean 850 temp during the storm of -10 to -15. Very supportive of good snow growth. It also would lay a good boundary for the 850 low to track to our south.
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Gimme
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I'm honestly quite intrigued about the late week potential. It has a legitimate upside (even B-word) potential for this area.
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The west coast 500 mb ridge on the EPS is textbook for a major east coast snowfall, and has trended in a more favorable direction over the past several runs.
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Incredible to see the op 06z Euro throw a sub 980mb low off Cape May, NJ this weekend. That's a blizzard almost every time in these parts.
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I would think more like 12z tomorrow, but he's our snow dad so.
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Only @stormtracker should have that power.
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Gimme, gimme, gimme
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Nope every parking lot and sidewalk is a sheet of ice
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Our road crews are working the best they can but this is very heavy sleet and snow.
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His quote was taken out of context. He said at a conference earlier this week that, "I'd rather be in Chicago", meaning he was worried the primary low was going to cut further west and persist longer than the guidance was initially forecasting. Ultimately, he was right.
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This is how you get two to three feet of snow.
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Per @wxmeddler, looks like the freezing rain is showing up on the mesonet with several wind readings going to 0 mph. Probably from ZR locking up the anemometers.
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18z NAMNEST hits Baltimore metro tomorrow AM with wrap around
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This is infinitely better than 12" of snow that melts off in 4 days.
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You have trains. It's acceptable. My outside decorations are still up just for the snow.
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