Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini.
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It's the PTSD talking. I get it.
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It was great. No complaints.
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Good catch. Euro may be trying to do that thing where it slows the storm down but it's longer in length and that allows everyone to win.
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Yup. Numerous members now have double digit hits regionwide.
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We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.
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I'm excited about a 4"-8" event.
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It's clipping data on this site because of Delaware and Chesapeake bays.
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IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.
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Reminds me of a certain storm 30 years ago
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Unable to post here because I'm dumb, but 72-hr mean snowfall for NBM now has the 6" line up in southern PA. 10" line runs through DC.
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Yes 12z Thursday is my go/no suite for this event.
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Trends have been great today, but still leaning in he @WxUSAF camp and weighing towards the ensembles until we get inside HR 84.
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Big takeaway from the various 12z ensembles is that any overly amped solution that would lead to mixing or a changeover seems to have diminished.
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WPC upping snowfall potential in the D5-D7 range. Their 18z update.
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Posting base snowfall output gif for some comparison.
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Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.
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Thursday's model runs will be the make or break for guidance. Most of the players will be within the upper air network in North America, and I'd be my bottom dollar that NOAA will be running extra planes for data sampling.
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That is a legitimate blizzard every day ending in 'y'.
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Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga.
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Cold, wetter, more phasing.
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From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.
