Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Tropical Storm Watch for Worcester County.
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Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island.
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The 12z Euro nudges west again. It's getting to the point where Tropical Storm Watches are going to be required for the Outer Banks.
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This thing is one bad turn away from having an few outer rainbands scrape portions of the eastern seaboard. At the very least, this will be a decent surf/tidal event. The wording is warranted, IMO.
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Notable changes for our coastal folks on the 18z GFS and ICON. Both nudge west and the GFS puts a steady easterly flow on the beaches. Would be rip current city.
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From the main thread.
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12z Euro way west. Scrapes outer banks and maybe even lower Delmarva with outer rain bands.
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So, uh, Erin's on the south side if rhe cone again.
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Perfect time to get good data.
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I respect the conservative nature of NHC.
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Cat 5 at 11am?
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Uh, is Erin now outside the cone?
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Wow good morning Erin.
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Didn't Matthew in (2016?) have that dual blob and it wasn't a big deal against intensification either>
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Unless I'm seeing things, Erin appears like she's trying to pop an eye.
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Yes that was an enjoyable sunset.
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Give me a pattern changing 1" - 3" event the week before Christmas. Then a nice 6" - 10" cold powder event on Christmas Day afternoon that sticks around for a week.
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Afternoon run of the Euro would make me sweat a bit if I'm a coastal resident.
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Sneaky severe day today: Surface CAPE 3,000 + across most of the area LI -6 or better east of US 15 High PWATs w/ some mid level drying to aid propagation of isolated wet microbursts. Surface lapse rates are decent Might see a few decent cells fire along some boundary.
