Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Parkton mesonet site got down to 23! Very similar conditions, cool! Ug, did your trees already blossom?
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18z GFS had a legit 1" - 2.5" of rain from I-81 to I-95. That would be perfect.
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A new Maryland Mesonet location in Frederick County (Thurmont) is now live. This is the first station for Frederick County, MD. Despite the wind, it was a great day to deploy this with @wxmeddler. Station webpage: https://mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid=MDMSNT-25 MADIS ID [not sure when it will populate]: 025MD
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Really hope the Euro D3 wet bias isn't kicking in here.
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Agreed. Total qpf bust.
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What a surprise, the forecast rainfall amounts have evaporated.
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Already spiking south of US 50 it seems.
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Agreed. You can see the cumulus field developing.
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The wedge appears to be entrenched north of I-66, but visible satellite is showing some decent breaks west of I-81.
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HRRR was right. Never discount an impulse riding along a front.
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Holy elevated convection batman.
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Classic mid range Euro wet bias.
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Bring it
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22z special sounding from Millersville University shows a stout cap at around 700mb
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Yes it did
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Latest SPC mesoanalysis has ~50kt jet aloft and we're sitting on a CAPE tongue. Might be enough to get some cluster moving through this afternoon. I'd like to see us tack on another 3 to 5 degrees to be safe though.
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Now we can cook with no pressure.
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Correct. We're more than ten degrees below the convective temp. That isn't a good sign for robust convection.
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St. Philip, IN has taken a direct hit from a significant nocturnal tornado.
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TDS in Pike Co near Spurgeon
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NWS Paducah WFO came within yards of getting hit by a tornado. Looks like the City of Paducah is taking a direct hit.
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Classic issue when we have bad mid level lapse rates and dry air at the surface. Storms just can't get above 10,000 feet and the updrafts kick the storms apart.
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Subtle surface boundary (bay breeze?) drifting west through Baltimore. Looks like the Towson and Baltimore City mesonet sites are showing a southeast wind, while everything else if firmly southwest. Might act as a focus for some better storms in a few hours.
