Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Nope. It's a nice hit.
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So do the 12z Canadian ensembles.
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RE: 12z Canadian Move the antedecent high pressure just 200-400 miles west and that storm at HR 240 is a KU event.
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Good to see some agreement. I know it's an old adage, but I trust op and ensemble guidance at 00z/12z much more beyond HR 120 because they have the addition of the upper air data. It also mitigates the sensation of rug pulls every 6hrs. Once you get inside D5/HR120, the 06/18z guidance has more value. Just my personal opinion.
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GEM has a history of detecting some potent northern stream events. It did well with Valentine's Day 2007, the second Feb 2010 event, 1/26/11, and the Valentines' Day 2014 storm.
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GEM has been better than the GFS of late. JB has posted this on Twitter, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the tweet or a screenshot because his post is somewhat unhinged.
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It's understandable to a point, we've been stuck in a nearly decade long pattern of fails and heart breaking last minute rug pulls. That being said, the hissy fits over a single op model run beyond HR240 not showing a Top 10 Miller A are exhausting.
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They're having a hissy fit. Plain and simple.
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Well said. Here's the visualization:
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06z Euro tries to give some light snow north of I-66 on New Years' Day. Wouldn't be much, a coating to one inch at most, but it would be great to get something.
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Latest spc meso analysis has a 120kt jet about to enter western PA and WV. Might see some legit winds west of I-81 today.
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The schtick from the same actors is tiresome. I know I've contributed to that discourse in the past, but I've tried to stop it as best I can.
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It's tiresome.
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You say that so much it's lost all meaning.
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Agreed. The New Years event is a low end dusting to one inch affair at best. I just want snow.
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Dr. No says yes?
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Ji has already canceled next winter. He's never satisfied with anything. IIRC, he was dismal in Jan 2010.
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Wow that's terrible.
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I'm as guarded as you, but this doesn't seem to be a head fake. We're inside D5 for the pattern flip now.
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I'd rather have things be south at this juncture.
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I know it's the OP at range, but the 12z GFS is really trying to tee up a legit nuke job.
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^man there are some royalty level snowfall events listed in the analogs
