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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Already a confirmed tornado in northeast PA. Several warnings up towards NY. Dynamics FTW.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    That would be like the El Ninos of yore.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Then the 13z HRRR comes in and is back to total garbage for everyone.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Sure thing. 12z HRRR: Around 3/4pm - Puts a couple of decent pre-frontal discrete cells from MDT south to DC, looks like one cell gets beefy east of Baltimore along maybe a bay breeze boundary? Around 4 - 6pm - Develops a respectable line of storms along I-81 and runs it from MDT down to RIC around sunset. That would be a solid slight risk day in these parts. If folks hold their expectations to that, then no one would be dissappointed.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Looking upstream, if we can get these debris clouds over West Virginia to fade out, we should be okay for at least some thunder. The cluster of storms coming through Columbus, OH right now has an uptick in CG and seems to be drifting southeast. Wonder if that's our show for later?
  7. Eskimo Joe
    If you liked the 11z HRRR, you'll love the 12z HRRR. Legit squall line.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Do we want to put the obs, etc. in this thread today, or the severe wx thread? I vote for here.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Clouds. Our most common failure mode. Hope we can clear out today.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Man you can script a precip minimum better than that.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Biggest tornado outbreak in this region.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Thank you for the clarification! I've seen more AFDs reference "WPC AI guidance" and was getting concerned it was becoming just plug and chug computer nonsense in the Mid and long range.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    IIRC, any forecast beyond D3 now is straight AI/auto generated with minimal input from forecasters. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Another big plume coming down from Canada. Western PA and Ohio back to Code Orange.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    There still is some suspended smoke on satellite.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    What would have been needed for more robust, widespread severe given that profile?
  24. Eskimo Joe
    ^Liz Leitman issuing that outlook. She's an incredible forecaster.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    With a raging east based El Nino? Don't hold your breath
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