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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Cool. Just let the 31st be dry.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    I was born in Philly during the Veteran's Day storm in '87.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    This time of year, I just want storms.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Back that high west to the St. Lawrence River and I'm interested.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    SE wind...not happening
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like self destructive sunshine today.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Out coldest part of the year is now our warmest part of winter.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Same. I'm fine with cold and dry. I can't stomach 65 and sunny on Christmas.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Another painful winter I fear.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Don't trust anything beyond HR84.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Euro AI & ICON were the first to back off this event, if I remember. NAM got schooled big time.
  13. Eskimo Joe

    Winter 2025-26

    Eskimo Joe replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    He then follows up with this:
  14. Eskimo Joe
    This is why you always want to root for the northern stream to dive south of us. We get the warm air adcection precip, the transfer, and the upper level cold conveyor belt on the back side. It's the easiest and most reliable way to win.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    tl;dr Congrats New England
  17. Eskimo Joe
    It's a La Nina event and it's the Mid Atlantic so it's part of the game. I know some people, myself included, get snarky about HR 90+ events, but it seems to be a good rule that beyond the HR 84 - HR 90 timeframe, we should really avoid believing the model hype.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Denied
  19. Eskimo Joe
    We always want the capture and tilt to occur as far to our southwest as possible. Otherwise we're living on the edge, and that's not good.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Don't look now, but the GFS tries to spin up another coastal low during the 18th - 20th timeframe.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Incredible temperature swing in Baltimore County. 38 in Parkton, 46 in Towson, 57 in Baltimore City.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    The 18z GFS op is interesting for Southeast Pennsylvania and Northeast Maryland. At 00z Monday, there's a potent 500mb jet of at least 50kts extending from Cecil County down to Bermuda. Meanwhile at 850mb, there's a 50 - 75kt easterly jet from Cape Cod to Lancaster, PA. Someone is going to get drenched.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    It's a sign for winter!
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Where do I sign on the 18z GFS? Everyone wins.
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