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Found 13 results

  1. Instability should increase today and especially Wednesday with modeled cape and ki increasing a bit as the cold pool aloft drifts nearby. EC lightning density also supports. Low cloud and/or cooling sea breezes probably minimize strong storm potential for the eastern portion of LI. Have not delved into detail of the modeled soundings but yesterdays activity should be repeated, and maybe more so, but not quite the same locations. I'm favoring NYS/NNJ and probably also down from extreme sw CT into the NY metro. It's possible several locations will have as much as 2.5" of rain by Wednesday evening while most of us have, as posted by WPC (less than 1/2"). Hail sizes...unknown, but certainly in some of the afternoon storms. More rainbows - yes. Wind gusts, usually below 35kt, but as per yesterday, several storms might pop damaging wind. Hail and damaging wind are probably not outlooked by SPC through 09z/30 issuance, due to uncertainty and likelihood of not matching their areal coverage criteria for alerting. This continues last weekends interesting weather and added needed rainfall for the NY forum, in what appears to me, another 10 days-multiple episodes of thunderstorms with this noted in the General Discussion Observations topic. Would like to keep this thread to June 30-July 1. Hope thunderstorm production lives up to expectations- I think the stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon, barring low overcast arriving from New England. Yesterdays LSR map attached and will delete it late today, after the first round. 630A/30 One other note: OKX AFD from early this morning has it well covered.
  2. I guess today will be bigger in Ny metro than yesterday? Figured I'd start this if you want to use and keep the rest of the reports off yesterdays disappointment topic. Will start with the first posted LSR. Will replace these LSR maps as time permits and events dictate. See SPC D1 and local NWS offices/friends etc for any comments.
  3. It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
  4. Twitter has safe tornado videos at #kywx and probably other #/@ tags. Atmosphere has tipped its hand on the synoptic fronts. How about boundaries farther south? They are usually second to go; so, this is very much still an ongoing day for Dixie (as of Noon Central Time). Noon Central Time: Differential heating and dewpoint boundary is noted from North Alabama into West Tenn. Another boundary is lifting from central Mississippi. They may merge later farther north. Either way looks like locally enhanced helicity in the usual suspect areas of North Alabama into northeast Mississippi and southern Middle Tenn. Upper air wind fields are strong including proper turning with height. 700 mb is a little warm; but, I expect enough surface convergence to overcome. Synoptic trough is coming out of Arkansas, and will bump into the above boundary(ies). North Bama clouds are decreasing both sides of lifting boundary, an ominous sign. Oh that boundary looks like an extension of the Georgia cool wedge-front, where clearing is also seen both sides. Warm mid-levels and neutral heights from yesterday will have less impact if foretasted surface heating materializes. Plus convergence along boundaries should be enough, esp intersecting ones.
  5. It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
  6. This one looks deserving of its own thread. FFC seems pretty bullish about large hail and some isolated nados.
  7. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  8. High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
  9. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  10. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  11. As 2016 rings in, thought I'd make a severe weather discussion forum for the New Year. Severe weather doesn't seem likely through Mid January for now.
  12. I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
  13. Hail can be a weather enthusiast delight during the Summer time (perhaps it reminds them of snow?). Unfortunately, forecasting hail size can be a bit of challenge. One method that I use is VIL Of the Day (VOTD). It was developed by the NWS back in the 90s. It purely relies on temperatures aloft and while simple, does a surprisingly good job. Obviously there are some limitations, but I will get to those in a minute. The calculation is straight forward and is as follows: VOTD = 750 / [(h5T+h4T) / 2] where h5T and h4T are the absolute values of the 500mb and 400mb temperatures respectively. The VIL value given from this equation is the approximate value at which you can expect 0.75” diameter hail stones to fall. 0.75” was chosen because this used to be the hail criteria for a severe thunderstorm. For operational purposes, the lower the expected VOTD the higher the large hail potential you can expect. I like to use 40 g/m^2 as a rough baseline in the Summer time. For those that are not familiar with VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid), it is a radar product that operational meteorologists use to locate areas of heavy precipitation and hail. It is available in real time in all GR-LevelX products and some places on the internet (Weather Underground, etc). See the wiki page for a brief overview. Now back to the limitations of the VOTD approximation. It is best used for regular thunderstorms and not those with established mesocyclones (i.e. supercells) … although honestly it still works fairly well on most supercells we see around here. In storms with well-organized and established mesocyclones, there are additional mesoscale lifting mechanisms at work that can work to produce huge hail more efficiently than what you would tend to find in your average non-supercellular severe thunderstorm. Keep in mind that the VOTD can change as the thermal profile aloft changes. Check forecast soundings (remember, there is more than 1 model) for the afternoon ahead instead of relying solely on the 12z observed soundings. Lastly, VOTD gives you the VIL value for 0.75” hail stones and tells you nothing about maximum hailstone size, etc. I have attached a calculator that I wrote to help me compute VOTD quickly. I wrote it a while back, it’s ugly, it’s written in FORTRAN, but it does the job!